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1 | 1 | # IDE SECIR model |
2 | 2 |
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3 | | -This model is based on Integro-differential equations. The eight compartments |
4 | | -- Susceptible, may become exposed at any time |
5 | | -- Exposed, becomes infected after some time |
6 | | -- InfectedNoSymptoms, becomes InfectedSymptoms or Recovered after some time |
7 | | -- InfectedSymptoms, becomes InfectedSevere or Recovered after some time |
8 | | -- InfectedSevere, becomes InfectedCritical or Recovered after some time |
9 | | -- InfectedCritical, becomes Recovered or Dead after some time |
10 | | -- Recovered |
11 | | -- Dead |
| 3 | +This model is based on integro-differential equations. |
| 4 | +The eight compartments |
| 5 | +- `Susceptible` ($S$), may become Exposed at any time |
| 6 | +- `Exposed` ($E$), becomes InfectedNoSymptoms after some time |
| 7 | +- `InfectedNoSymptoms` ($I_{NS}$), becomes InfectedSymptoms or Recovered after some time |
| 8 | +- `InfectedSymptoms` ($I_{Sy}$), becomes InfectedSevere or Recovered after some time |
| 9 | +- `InfectedSevere` ($I_{Sev}$), becomes InfectedCritical or Recovered after some time |
| 10 | +- `InfectedCritical` ($I_{Cr}$), becomes Recovered or Dead after some time |
| 11 | +- `Recovered` ($R$) |
| 12 | +- `Dead` ($D$) |
12 | 13 |
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13 | 14 | are used to simulate the spread of the disease. |
14 | 15 |
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| 16 | +Below is an overview of the model architecture and its compartments. |
| 17 | +The variables $\sigma_{z_1}^{z_2}$ refer to a transition from a compartment $z_1$ to a compartment $z_2$. |
15 | 18 |
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16 | | -The simulation runs in discrete time steps using a non-standard numerical scheme. This approach is based on the paper "A non-standard numerical scheme for an age-of infection epidemic model" by Messina et al., Journal of Computational Dynamics, 2022. |
| 19 | + |
| 20 | + |
| 21 | +The model parameters used are the following: |
| 22 | + |
| 23 | +| Mathematical variable | C++ variable name | Description | |
| 24 | +|---------------------------- | --------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | |
| 25 | +| $\phi$ | `ContactPatterns` | Average number of contacts of a person per day. | |
| 26 | +| $k$ | `Seasonality` | The influence of the seasons is taken into account with the seasonality parameter. | |
| 27 | +| $\rho$ | `TransmissionProbabilityOnContact` | Transmission risk for people located in the Susceptible compartment. | |
| 28 | +| $\xi_{I_{NS}}$ | `RelativeTransmissionNoSymptoms` | Proportion infected people with no symptoms who are not isolated. | |
| 29 | +| $\xi_{I_{Sy}}$ | `RiskOfInfectionFromSymptomatic` | Proportion of infected persons with symptoms who are not isolated. | |
| 30 | +| $N$ | `m_N` | Total population. | |
| 31 | +| $D$ | Entry of `m_populations` | Number of dead people. | |
| 32 | +| $\mu_{z_1}^{z_2}$ | `TransitionProbabilities` | Probability of transitioning from compartment $z_1$ to compartment $z_2$. | |
| 33 | +| $\gamma_{z_1}^{z_2}(\tau)$ | `TransitionDistributions` | Expected proportion of people who are still in compartment $z_1$ $\tau$ days after entering this compartment and who will move to compartment $z_2$ later in the course of the disease. | |
| 34 | + |
| 35 | +The simulation runs in discrete time steps using a non-standard numerical scheme. This approach is based on the paper ["A non-standard numerical scheme for an age-of infection epidemic model" by Messina et al., Journal of Computational Dynamics, 2022](https://doi.org/10.3934/jcd.2021029). |
17 | 36 |
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18 | 37 | ## Examples |
19 | 38 |
|
20 | 39 | An example can be found at: |
21 | 40 |
|
22 | | -- examples/ide_secir.cpp |
| 41 | +- [IDE minimal example](../../examples/ide_secir.cpp) |
| 42 | + |
| 43 | +## Initialization |
| 44 | + |
| 45 | +- The file [parameters_io](parameters_io.h) provides functionality to compute initial data for the IDE-SECIR model based on real data. An example for this initialization method can be found at [IDE initialization example](../../examples/ide_initialization.cpp). |
| 46 | + |
| 47 | +- There are various options for initializing a fictional scenario. Regardless of the approach, you must provide a history of values for the transitions and additional information to compute the initial distribution of the population in the compartments. This information must be of the following type: |
| 48 | + |
| 49 | + - You can state the number of total confirmed cases `total_confirmed_cases` at time $t_0$. The number of recovered people is set accordingly and the remaining values are derived in the model before starting the simulation. |
| 50 | + - You can set the number of people in the `Susceptible` compartment at time $t_0$ via `m_populations`. Initial values of the other compartments are derived in the model before starting the simulation. |
| 51 | + - You can set the number of people in the `Recovered` compartment at time $t_0$ via `m_populations`. Initial values of the other compartments are derived in the model before starting the simulation. |
| 52 | + - If none of the above is used, the force of infection formula and the values for the initial transitions are used consistently with the numerical scheme proposed in [Messina et al (2022)](https://doi.org/10.3934/jcd.2021029) to set the `Susceptible`s. |
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