In this report, the forecast performances of wind power plants in our country were calculated using EPIAS Transparency Platform data. The main performance criteria are the average imbalance cost per MWh and FGPDA (Finalized Generation Plan Deviation Amount) (see Methodology).

If you would like to collect the data we used to create this report for your own analysis, you can send us your information by filling out the form here.

January 2026 Overall View

In the chart below, you can see the cost per unit of wind power plants in January 2026. The reference (median) unit cost of the power plant for this month was 129.68 TL / MWh. Unit costs of power plants (with some exceptions at the end) are increasing regularly. The top 3 power plants seem to be LODOS RES, ORDU-4 RES and GERMİYAN RES.

Information

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Calculation Methodology

In our report, the estimated unit cost is calculated using two cost items: \(IC\) (Imbalance Cost) and \(FGPDC\) (Finalized Generation Plan Deviation Cost). The calculation of these two cost items is as follows:

Imbalance Cost

First, let’s look at how the company’s imbalance quantity, \({IQ}_{t}\), is obtained. The quantity of imbalance is positive or negative depending on whether the production for any given hour is above or below the \(SBFGP\) value. We can express these two situations as follows:

If actual production is more than \(SBFGP\)

• Positive imbalance quantity \({IQ}_{pos_t} = {Actual}_{t} - {SBFGP}_{t}\)

If actual production is lower than \(SBFGP\)

• Negative imbalance quantity \({IQ}_{neg_t} = {SBFGP}_{t} - {Actual}_{t}\)

The calculation of the unit imbalance cost, \(UIC_t\), is determined not only by whether the imbalance quantity is positive or negative, but also by considering the System Direction and the applicable price limits (\(MPL\), \(V\), \(B\)) for the relevant settlement period. Accordingly, for any given hour, the unit negative and unit positive imbalance costs are calculated as follows:

• Unit Negative Imbalance Cost

  • If \(max(MCP_t, SMP_{N,t}) = MPL_t\):

    \({UIC}_{neg_t} = (MPL_t \times 1.05) \times (1 + k)\)

  • Otherwise:

    \({UIC}_{neg_t} = max(V_t, MCP_t, SMP_{N,t}) \times (1 + k)\)

• Unit Positive Imbalance Cost

  • If \(min(MCP_t, SMF_{P,t}) < V_t\):

    \({UIC}_{pos_t} = (-1) \times B_t \times (1 + l)\)

  • Otherwise:

    \({UIC}_{pos_t} = min(MCP_t, SMP_{P,t}) \times (1 - l)\)

• Price Components Used

  \(SMP_{N,t} = max(SMP_t)\)

  \(SMP_{P,t} = min(SMP_t)\)

The coefficients \(k\) and \(l\) are applied in accordance with the rules determined by the Regulatory Authority, based on the System Direction of the relevant settlement period. Similarly, the parameters \(AFL\), \(V\), and \(B\) are also determined and applied by the Regulatory Authority for the corresponding settlement period.

By multiplying the imbalance quantity with the unit imbalance cost in line with the manufacturer’s imbalance direction, we obtain the imbalance cost for the hour, \({IC}_{t}\). The \(t\) value in the formulas can be considered as one hour. By summing these products over a time interval, we calculate the producer’s total imbalance cost for that time interval. We can consider this time period as the month when the report was published.

• Total positive imbalance cost \({IC}_{pos} = \sum_t ({IQ}_{pos_t} * {UIC}_{pos_t})\)
• Total negative imbalance cost \({IC}_{neg} = \sum_t ({IQ}_{neg_t} * {UIC}_{neg_t})\)

By adding up these positive and negative imbalance costs, we obtain the total imbalance cost.

• Total imbalance cost \({IC} = {IC}_{pos} + {IC}_{neg}\)

Finalized Generation Plan Deviation Cost

\(FGPDC\) calculation is made based on \(SBFGP\) values for the WPPs within the scope of our report, since they are not subject to \(UR\) (Up Regulation) and \(DR\) (Down Regulation) instructions and do not have Secondary Frequency Control Reserve (SRDM). First, let’s look at the calculation of unit \(FGPDC\) for any hour:

• Unit FGPDC \({UFGPDC}_{t} = max({MCP}_{t}, {SMP}_{t}, 750) * 0.03\)

To calculate \(FGPDC\), it is first necessary to calculate the imbalance tolerance. This tolerance amount represents the amount at which deviation from the expected production amount of the business, in our case \(SBFGP\), is not penalized and is calculated by taking 17% of \(SBFGP\).

• Tolerance amount \({TA}_{t} = {SBFGP}_{t} * 0.17\)

If the negative or positive imbalance of the business does not exceed this tolerance amount, it is not subject to a penalty. However, if it is exceeded, it is punished based on the amount it exceeds the tolerance amount, and this amount is called \(FGPDA\).

• \({FGPDC}_{t} = abs({SBPG}_{t} - {SBFGP}_{t}) - {TA}_{t}\)

By multiplying the unit \(FGPDC\) value by the \(FGPDA\) for that hour, we obtain the \(FGPDC\) value of the relevant hour. Similar to the imbalance cost, by summing these products over a time period, we calculate the total \(FGPDC\) of the producer for that time period.

• \(FGPDC = \sum_t {UFGPDC}_{t} * {FGPDA}_{t}\)

Unit Cost

The total cost is obtained by adding the imbalance cost and \(FGPDC\), the calculations of which are shown above.

• Total cost \(TC = IC + FGPDC\)

To obtain the unit cost, we need to divide the total cost we calculated by the total production, \(TP\):

• Unit Cost \(UC = TC / TP\)

References

• SBFGP
• Real Time Generation
• Imbalance Quantity
• MCP
• SMP