Calctopia

Modelling the (Secure) Data Economy

david — Sun, 01 Mar 2026 18:17:24 +0000

Forthcoming to the Review of Economic Studies, the paper “A Model of the Data Economy”: a micro-founded model for optimal data policy using a recursive representation to value data. According to its calibration to the US economy, the GDP mis-measurement due to missing value of data has been as high as 6% in 2018.

In the model, the same data can be sold multiple times, much like our paper “The Valuation of Secrecy and Privacy Multiplier”. And even though the model doesn’t consider the effects of secure computation or any other privacy-preserving technique, it conveniently defines a variable ι, the fraction of sold data that is lost when the firm sells to each other: using secure computation, this fraction can be kept to a minimum thus increasing the valuation and returns in a (secure) data economy.

The Increasing Economic Value of Private Data in the Era of Large Language Models: a Case for Secure Computation

david — Sun, 01 Feb 2026 10:16:56 +0000

As Large Language Models (LLMs) make vast quantities of public data readily accessible and effectively commoditise public knowledge, private data becomes increasingly valuable: this shift has been named “The Tragedy of the AI Data Commons” in a recent publication regarding the increasing divide between the value of public and private data.

Secure computation and other privacy preserving techniques are the last bastion against the value erosion of data caused by LLMs: as we previously pointed out in “The Valuation of Secrecy and Privacy Multiplier”, secure computation improves the valuation of data during the process of public dissemination, including its ingestion by LLMs.

And although dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have started to incorporate the effects of LLMs as productivity enhancers (for example, “From Servers to Rates: AI, ICT Capital, and the Natural Rate” and “Tech Booms: From Dot-Com To AI”), they do not yet model the rational responses of heterogeneous agents to counteract its negative effects through intangible capital deepening enabled by secure computation: in the AI era, the only way to keep and increase the value of data assets is using secure computation.

On the Value of Analyst Forecasts

david — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 10:04:30 +0000

Continuing with our series of blog-posts on the valuation of data and its application to secure computation, we note the recent publication of “Valuing financial data: The case of analyst forecasts”. This newer paper replicates for the Chinese market the methodology of “Valuing Financial Data”: note that this preceding paper was already covered on a previous blog post (On the Value of Future Macroeconomic Releases) with a working example.

The results of “Valuing financial data: The case of analyst forecasts” are very much in agreement with “Valuing Financial Data“, thus confirming its validity across different jurisdictions. Furthermore, it introduces heterogeneity in the the valuation of data: 1) market size displays a left-skewed distribution; 2) higher value for assets with high analyst attention; 3) and assets with excellent transparency.

On the Value of Information as Personal Wealth

david — Mon, 01 Dec 2025 08:00:00 +0000

You would willing to pay between 13% and 23% of your personal wealth for continuous access to undisclosed financial information: that’s an estimate on the private value of information as a percentage of personal wealth according to a study by Ohad Kadan and Asaf Manela published in the Review of Financial Studies (Estimating the Value of Information, open version ). And by using The Secure Spreadsheet, you would increase said private value multiple times instead of losing it in a single use: The Valuation of Secrecy and the Privacy Multiplier further complements this study by considering the protection of information rents and the price impact of the diffusion of information. More fascinating statistics from this study:

Information loses around 98% of its value when it becomes public.
Key macroeconomic indicators ordered by their value (from highest to lowest): employment, initial jobless claims, pre-FOMC rate decision, FOMC rate decision, GDP, consumer comfort index, and mortgage applications.

On the Value of Future Financial Statements Statistics

david — Sun, 02 Nov 2025 08:56:28 +0000

From a forthcoming publication (“Estimating the Private Value of Financial Statement Statistics”), we know that an institutional investor would be willing to pay $170,515 for the future value of Return Of Equity (ROE) of the median firm from the COMPUSTAT database, and even $193,007 for small firms. Other estimates can be found in the paper for various ratios such as Operating Profit Margin, Operating Asset Turnover, Leverage, and Sales Growth.

If you would like to know how to take advantage of private data like that, visit this page for a practical example.

On the Value of Future Macroeconomic Releases

david — Wed, 01 Oct 2025 00:01:00 +0000

From a recent publication in the Review of Financial Studies (“Valuing Financial Data”), we know that a fund with assets of $250M would be willing to pay the remarkable amount of $1.4M for the ability to perfectly forecast quarterly GDP growth in advance.

If you would like to know how to take advantage of this private data, visit this page for a practical example.

Securely Computing on Private Monetary Policy Rules

david — Mon, 01 Sep 2025 15:27:27 +0000

A new use case regarding the use of secure computation techniques on monetary policy rules has been published, teaching how to securely compute on policy rules in a private way.

MiCA Compliance

david — Mon, 30 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The full MiCA Regulation (EU 2023/1114) applies from today. A brief description of how the current blockchain meets this regulation:

The crypto-asset is automatically created as a reward for the maintenance of the distributed ledger or the validation of transactions -MiCA Article 4 3.(b) –
Integrated AML/KYC/CFT – Guidelines specifying Union standards on the maintenance of systems and security access protocols 2.2.3.12 –
Consensus mechanism with very low energy requirements (MiCA Article 6(12); RTS specifying the content, methodologies and presentation of information in respect of sustainability indicators in relation to adverse impacts on the climate and other environment related adverse impacts)

Updating the guide to register a node to the blockchain

david — Sat, 12 Oct 2024 21:10:32 +0000

The guide to register a single keypair generated from your Electronic Passport has been updated. Note that this step requires an Intel SGX CPU with Flexible Launch Control (FLC).

Download (PDF, 441KB)

Updated Zero-Knowledge Proof-of-Identity

david — Wed, 18 Sep 2024 11:48:31 +0000

The paper describing Zero-Knowledge Proof-of-Identity has been updated with the latest developments to offer the only practical solution currently available to provide secure, privacy-preserving authentication of National Identity Cards/Biometric passports:

New subsubsection 4.2.8: Substituting EPID for DCAP
New subsubsection 4.3.3: Remote attestation for smartphones

Download (PDF, 1.8MB)