Comments for Unexpected Values https://ericneyman.wordpress.com A blog about math, philosophy, puzzles, politics, and more. Sat, 01 Nov 2025 04:15:11 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ Comment on Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act by Shtetl-Optimized » Blog Archive » On keeping a packed suitcase https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act/comment-page-1/#comment-1086 Sat, 01 Nov 2025 04:15:11 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=2734#comment-1086 […] who favors all the usual good things, is also a leader in AI safety legislation (for more, see this by Eric Neyman of Alignment Research Center, or this from Scott Alexander himself—the AI […]

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]]> Comment on Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act by AI #139: The Overreach Machines | Don't Worry About the Vase https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act/comment-page-1/#comment-1085 Thu, 23 Oct 2025 15:23:35 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=2734#comment-1085 […] Eric Nayman made an extensive case for considering donating to Alex Bores, emphasizing that it was even more valuable in the initial 24 hour window that has now passed. Donations remain highly useful, and you can stop worrying about time pressure. […]

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]]> Comment on Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act by Consider donating to AI safety champion Scott Wiener – Unexpected Values https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act/comment-page-1/#comment-1084 Wed, 22 Oct 2025 18:39:00 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=2734#comment-1084 […] Monday, I put out a long blog post making the case for donating to Alex Bores, author of the New York RAISE Act. And today I’m doing […]

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]]> Comment on Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act by Jackie B https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act/comment-page-1/#comment-1083 Tue, 21 Oct 2025 01:16:55 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=2734#comment-1083 Thanks for the excellently-written article! It answered a lot of good questions and I would not otherwise have known about this opportunity. My husband and I have each just donated $7000.

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]]> Comment on Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act by Eric Neyman https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act/comment-page-1/#comment-1082 Mon, 20 Oct 2025 22:12:53 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=2734#comment-1082 In reply to William Kiely.

I think that’s right. Holding the total amount raised fixed, campaigns prefer having more donors. My sense is that this isn’t very important to campaigns, relative to the amount they raise, and I think that this consideration wouldn’t affect the bottom line much. But I haven’t worked through the math to make sure!

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]]> Comment on Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act by William Kiely https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act/comment-page-1/#comment-1081 Mon, 20 Oct 2025 22:03:29 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=2734#comment-1081 “For this reason, I believe that dollars beyond the first $3,500 are over 2x more valuable in expectation.“

Isn’t number of donors important for signaling reasons too though? Like wouldn’t it be better optically for 3,500 marginal people to each donate $100 than for 100 marginal people to each donate $3,500?

Or is the number of donors not shared, and only the total amount shared?

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]]> Comment on Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act by Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble | Don't Worry About the Vase https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act/comment-page-1/#comment-1079 Mon, 20 Oct 2025 13:13:54 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=2734#comment-1079 […] Eric Nayman makes an extensive case for considering donating to Alex Bores today, in his first 24 hours, as donations in the first 24 hours are extremely valuable. Sonnet 4.5 estimates that in this case, a donation on day one is worth about double what it would be worth later. If you do decide to donate, they prefer that you use this link to ensure the donation gets fully registered today. […]

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]]> Comment on Will Jesus Christ return in an election year? by Double Maths First Thing: Issue 28 | The Aperiodical https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/comment-page-1/#comment-1076 Wed, 11 Jun 2025 07:46:54 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=2670#comment-1076 […] one question on everyone’s lips: “Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?” Eric Neyman explains why the likelihood given on Polymarket is 3%, considerably higher than […]

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]]> Comment on Finding Shawn Mendes by humble https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2019/11/26/finding-shawn-mendes/comment-page-1/#comment-1073 Mon, 09 Jun 2025 13:23:27 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=302#comment-1073 I am just a fan! had to say (yours, not mendes’)

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]]> Comment on Will Jesus Christ return in an election year? by This Friday linkfest is wreaking a tremendous amount of carnage. What it is not doing, however, is winning. | Dynamic Ecology https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/comment-page-1/#comment-1071 Fri, 06 Jun 2025 12:00:28 +0000 http://ericneyman.wordpress.com/?p=2670#comment-1071 […] Jesus Christ return in 2025? Place your bets. This is actually a very interesting and accessible bit of finance nerdery relating to prediction […]

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