• Throughout his presidential campaign, Donald Trump made a number of promises with regard to the crypto sector
• These promises included creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, reducing the sentence of Ross Ulbricht and firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler
• We break down Trump’s ten promises for posterity

Newly re-elected U.S. president Donald Trump has made ten promises related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies during his successful attempt to regain the presidency. This secured him the support of a huge majority of the crypto space, but we will have to wait until at least January 10, 2025, to see if he sticks to any of them. We break down these promises here and will refer back to them as his tenancy in charge of the world’s most powerful nation progresses.

1. Make the United States the world’s cryptocurrency capital

Donald Trump aims to position the U.S. as the global leader in cryptocurrency, likely by fostering innovation-friendly regulation, encouraging investment, and establishing a supportive infrastructure for digital assets. This would involve creating an environment where crypto companies and investors feel welcomed, ensuring the U.S. stays competitive in the rapidly growing global crypto market.

2. Fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), under Gary Gensler’s leadership, has been strict with cryptocurrency regulations, enforcing numerous lawsuits against crypto firms. Trump proposes replacing Gensler with someone who may take a more crypto-friendly approach, reducing regulatory pressure on the industry.

3. Establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve

Trump suggests creating a federal Bitcoin reserve, possibly treating Bitcoin similarly to gold in terms of value storage. This reserve could be seen as a hedge against inflation or a means to diversify U.S. financial reserves, signaling the country’s confidence in Bitcoin’s value.

4. Prevent the U.S. from selling its Bitcoin holdings

This policy would ensure the government retains any Bitcoin it acquires, whether through seizures or purchases, to potentially benefit from its long-term appreciation. It indicates a belief in Bitcoin’s future value and aims to avoid premature liquidation.

5. Halt further U.S. government development of a CBDC

Trump opposes the development of a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which some fear could give the government excessive control over citizens’ financial transactions. Halting CBDC development would align with a more decentralized financial philosophy and protect private financial autonomy.

6. Propose a comprehensive cryptocurrency policy  

Trump intends to introduce a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. A well-defined policy could reduce legal ambiguity, make it easier for crypto businesses to operate, and help consumers understand their rights and responsibilities within the crypto space.

7. Cease hostilities against cryptocurrency within an hour of taking office

Trump promises an immediate shift in the government’s stance on crypto, pledging to halt aggressive enforcement actions and possibly reversing regulations perceived as anti-crypto. This would likely provide immediate relief to the industry and signal a new era of cooperation.

8. End the U.S. government’s unlawful crackdown on the crypto industry  

Trump criticizes the current administration’s “crackdown” on crypto firms, describing it as unlawful or overly restrictive. Ending these actions would involve reassessing the regulatory approaches that have led to fines and lawsuits, aiming for a more collaborative regulatory relationship.

9. Recommend using cryptocurrency to address U.S. debt issues

Trump proposes exploring ways to leverage cryptocurrency to help reduce the national debt, possibly by using it as an investment tool or as a means of restructuring financial obligations. This would be an unconventional approach and would require extensive planning and risk assessment.

10. Reduce the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht

Ross Ulbricht, founder of the darknet marketplace Silk Road, received a life sentence for his role in facilitating drug trafficking through Bitcoin. Trump’s proposal to reduce Ulbricht’s sentence could appeal to libertarians and crypto enthusiasts who view his punishment as disproportionately harsh, especially in light of Bitcoin’s legitimate use cases today.

The post Donald Trump’s Ten Crypto Promises appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• Bitcoin has enjoyed a $5,000 bounce this weekend as Saxony sold its last bitcoin
• The cryptocurrency has seemingly bottomed at $53,500, having dropped $20,000 since March
• Equities have also reached all-time highs, and Bitcoin appears ready to catch up

Bitcoin enjoyed a $5,000 bounce this weekend as the German town of Saxony finally sold the last of its 50,000 BTC. Having seemingly bottomed at $53,500, representing a $20,000 drop from its March top, Bitcoin finally seems able to resume its bull run, with equities also seeing all-time highs. Assuming this is the start of something wonderful, what does Bitcoin need to do in order to reach the promised land?

Saxony Sales Drive $20,000 Drop

Bitcoin’s rise from $43,000 to $73,000 in the first three months of the year was driven almost solely by ETF hype and buying, leading to a 27% cool-off that saw it drop as low as $53,500 earlier this month:

Part of this collapse has been the actions of the German town of Saxony, which has been forced to sell 50,000 BTC seized in 2020, as well as the fear of MtGox creditors doing the same. While the latter is not a legitimate concern, the former certainly was, and those with deep pockets have made the most of the price drop; Bitcoin whales accumulated 71,000 bitcoins amid the fastest rate of Bitcoin stacking since April 2023.

Saxony has now sold all its coins, relieving the sales pressure and allowing Bitcoin to reverse two weeks’ worth of losses. The question now is, what does Bitcoin need to do to prove that this isn’t a temporary bounce?

Two Key Levels to Watch

There are two areas we can look at to answer this question. The first thing Bitcoin needs to do is break and hold $67,000, which has acted as resistance in April and more recently again in June:

If Bitcoin can manage this, then the next target is the $71,500 region, acceptance above which will see all-time highs almost guaranteed:

Were this to play out perfectly, we would see something like this:

Of course, Bitcoin could do the other thing, but given the strength it has shown in this bounce, we have to believe that the only way is up from now on.

The post Bitcoin Bounces as Saxony Empties Vault appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• Bitcoin hit $69,000 on Tuesday and then dropped $10,000
• Price volatility under all-time highs is expected
• Can history teach us anything about what to expect?

Bitcoin tapped its November 2021 high of $69,000 on Tuesday before a violent $10,000 drop. Its quickfire recovery to $68,000 has shown that it is currently an unpredictable beast, and as a result, everyone is looking for clues as to how it will behave around this key psychological level. We turn to history to see if we can learn anything from the last time this happened and apply it to the current position.

Three Weeks in 2020

Looking back at the last time Bitcoin broke its prior high following a bear market, we can see that it was far from an easy ride:

As we can see, a rejection at $19,500 on November 25 saw it wick down to $16,000 before it reversed and launched another assault the week after, only to be knocked back at the prior high of $19,800. Bitcoin then spent another two weeks consolidating before finally bursting through on December 16, making it a three-week process to get through that psychological barrier.

A similar situation seems to be playing out this time around:

We can already see a rejection from the $69,000 high resulted in a sharp wick and then a quick recovery. If history plays out again then we can expect some consolidation underneath this key level once again, although the speed at which Bitcoin is moving thanks to the ETF inflows suggests that maybe this process will take days rather than weeks.

However long it takes Bitcoin to breach this all-time high, assuming it eventually does, we can expect some green and some red candles before it finally makes tracks. And don’t forget what Bitcoin did when it finally broke through in 2020…

The post What to Expect With Bitcoin Around $69,000 appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• When a Bitcoin bull run really gets into gear, the big question is always “Where will it top out?”
• There is a specific tool we can use to predict where Bitcoin might top out

When a Bitcoin bull run gets going, everybody wants to know the magic number at which they can cash out, knowing they have sold the top. Only a handful of people ever manage this, but there are tools available that can help predict where Bitcoin might mathematically finish its bull run. Let’s examine this tool, compare it to the last bull run, and see what it says about the current one.

How the Fibonacci System Works

The tool we can use to predict the future price of an asset is called the trend-based Fibonacci extension. The theory behind the trend-based Fibonacci extension tool is rooted in the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, and so on). This sequence has mathematical properties that appear in various natural phenomena and financial markets.

In financial markets, traders apply Fibonacci ratios (derived from the Fibonacci sequence) to identify potential levels of support and resistance. The key Fibonacci ratios used in the extension tool include 1.618, 2.618, and 4.236.

The tool assumes that after a significant price move in one direction (the trend), the market may experience a retracement before continuing in the original direction. The retracement levels (typically 0.382, 0.50, and 0.618) represent potential areas where the price might reverse or consolidate temporarily.

By extending the Fibonacci levels beyond the end of the trend, traders can project potential future price targets or areas of interest. These extension levels serve as guides for traders to anticipate where the price might encounter support or resistance as the trend unfolds.

The theory suggests that market participants are influenced by these Fibonacci levels when making trading decisions, leading to clusters of orders around these levels and causing price reactions. Therefore, traders use the Fibonacci extension tool to identify strategic entry and exit points, set profit targets, and manage risk within a trending market.

The Numbers

So how does the Fibonacci extension theory apply to Bitcoin? Let’s see how it played out when predicting the 2021 top:

As we can see, Bitcoin passed the 2.618 line but the 4.236 was, understandably, out of reach. This suggests that we should be dealing with the 1.618-3.618 region. If we apply that logic to the current position (using a logarithmic graph this time) here’s what we see:

Here we see some plausible topping-out points for Bitcoin, starting with $120,000 and going all the way up to $250,000 if we are to echo its performance from 2021.

Of course, these numbers are speculative and are far from set in stone, but they are something to bear in mind given that this is what Bitcoin has experienced in prior bull runs.

The post How High Can Bitcoin Go in This Bull Run? appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• Bitcoin temporarily surpassed $42,000, the first time since April last year
• It is eyeing eight straight weeks of green for only the third time since 2013
• As Bitcoin rests on an ETF-supported price, questions arise about its upper limit and potential consequences

Bitcoin crossed $42,000 overnight for the first time since April last year, promising to put in the eighth green week in a row. Were it to achieve this it would represent the first such gains since April 2017, a sign that we are very definitely at the start of a new bull market. However, this is far from confirmed and the question is starting to be asked now ‘How much higher will Bitcoin go?’. With Bitcoin’s price sitting on a cushion of ETF air, what can we expect if the local top is in?

Bitcoin Approaching Key Resistance

We can get a very clear idea of how well Bitcoin has performed this autumn by looking at the weekly chart:

As we can see, Bitcoin is getting very close to a key line of resistance, the one that more or less confirmed a bear market back in April 2022, the last time the price was around this range. Bitcoin has been on a relentless march since the first week of October, and if it can remain green for the rest of the week it will be the first time it has achieved this in six and a half years. This pattern has only played out once before, in early 2013, showing its rarity of it, and thus its unlikelihood.

Assuming that Bitcoin has topped out, for now, where should you look to reload? There are two primary areas of interest we can look at: 

A shallow pullback to the prior resistance of $38,000 would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin and would suggest that the appetite for Bitcoin is the strongest it has been since 2020. We could also see a larger dip back to the low $30,000s. Providing it didn’t close on a weekly level below this range it would still act as a crucial higher low and set Bitcoin up for a return to the $40,000s imminently.

Bitcoin ETF Reaction Will Depend on Price

The reason for the drive in price is, of course, the promise of a Bitcoin ETF. Final decisions on this are now due within a month or so, and what Bitcoin will do upon any positive news on this front will be impacted by its price at the time: a Bitcoin in the $40,000s will likely correct after a spike up, while a Bitcoin in the low $30,000s will likely accelerate back up to the $40,000s and beyond.

For now, an extended Bitcoin should be a sign of caution rather than outright panic; what goes up must come down.

The post Bitcoin Crosses $42,000 in Eighth Straight Green Week appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• Bitcoin is ending the year strongly, with many expecting higher targets
• This is a typical bear market rally, so we must be wary of the end approaching
• Why is $47,000 an ideal level and what would happen next?

Bitcoin has been on a tear for the last month or so as if it wants to put on a show for the first anniversary of the latest event that was supposed to have killed it. Bear market rallies are tricky things to navigate, however, and we all know that Bitcoin doesn’t go up forever. With this being the case, $47,000 looks like a natural stopping point for Bitcoin, at least in the short term, and for a very good reason.

Bitcoin Low Looks In

The first thing to look at is the situation with regard to the lows. Bitcoin dropped to $15,000 around this time last year following the FTX crisis, which looks to have been the capitulation that Bitcoin experienced in November and December 2018 when the price dropped 50% in a short space of time. Since then the price has rallied 133%, finally surpassing a key level of resistance on the way:

It looks for all the world that the lows of this bear market are already in, with the pattern from 2019 potentially repeating. Back then it was the ‘China adopting blockchain’ narrative that drove the recovery, whereas this time we have the Bitcoin ETF narrative is driving price.

The question is then, where will it stop? To help answer this we can look at another aspect of the chart from 2019:

As we can see, Bitcoin topped out at around $12,000, exactly at the point where the first bounce rejected after the bull run topped out in 2017. This line acted as resistance in 2018, 2019, and again in 2020, until it was finally cracked in October that year which set in motion the gargantuan rise to $65,000 seven months later.

If we expect the same thing to happen again, the area of resistance we are interested in is $47,000, at which point we can expect a cooling off in the market, especially as a Bitcoin ETF will likely have been approved by that point, which is the only catalyst driving price forward at the moment.

What Next?

What can we expect if we do reach $47,000? Here’s our prediction, based on the last cycle:

Assuming Bitcoin hits $47,000 this year we can expect the first half of next year, which takes in the halving, to be the cooling-off period which could see a return to test that prior resistance at $32,000 before turning it into support for the start of the big run-up into 2025.

Of course, if Bitcoin falls back through that $32,000 support without a good reason (i.e. the COVID dump in 2020) then all bets are off and we might as well go home.

The post $47,000 Bitcoin is Not Out of the Question in 2023 appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• Bitcoin has been fighting to hold its prior resistance for more than two weeks and finally looks like it wants to go higher
• A jump to $32,400 is the next area bulls will be aiming for
• A Bitcoin ETF tailwind could help it get there

Despite some crazy wicks on both sides, Bitcoin has been holding firm in the $30,500+ region for a couple of weeks and finally looks like it wants to go higher. With the fundamental narrative around it improving thanks to multiple Bitcoin ETF applications, the chances of an upward move look strong, with the ultimate target of $46,000-$47,000 not unthinkable in the right circumstances.

Bitcoin Holding Strong

As we can see, Bitcoin has survived some major scares and finds itself sitting near the top of the band of resistance that it last faced in April:

This weekly chart illustrates the importance of this level and shows what Bitcoin needs to do to continue its 2023 rally:

Given that Bitcoin is rising into a headwind of regulatory action, of which there is almost certainly more to come, there is every reason to believe that Bitcoin will fail to breach this $32,500 level, especially given its importance in the wider context of Bitcoin’s situation. However, sentiment is suddenly shifting back in Bitcoin’s favor, with the multiple Bitcoin ETFs filed recently by major players in the traditional finance world potentially being the catalyst that pushes it further, perhaps even past this level.

If that were to happen we could see the $46,000-$47,000 level we discussed in February coming into play and acting as the final boss for the bear market:

This level of resistance is crucial to Bitcoin establishing a bull market again, and so it would mark a natural point at which the current bear market rally, if indeed it is one, peters out.

Don’t Look Down…

Of course there is the other side of the argument to consider: what if it doesn’t flip the current level? That would result in the second half of 2023 being a steady decline down to a key point of support, with two areas clearly obvious as possible stopping points:

Hopefully for holders it won’t come to that, but those still on the sidelines from the most recent move will be praying that Bitcoin revisits these levels before the next bull run proper begins.

The post Bitcoin Primed for Next Leg appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• A key indicator suggests that Bitcoin’s bear market rally is over
• The MACD flipped red last week having been green for 10 months
• This has historically brought on a months-long period of decline

A key Bitcoin indicator is suggesting that Bitcoin’s bear market rally may be over, following a four-month rise that has seen the price more than double. The weekly MACD indicator is flashing red for the first time since August 2022 in a sign that upward momentum may be exhausted and a months-long deflation may take place prior to the next bull market. This would reflect a historical trend and may present a chance to pick up more crypto in the coming months.

History Repeating?

The MACD can indicate a potential shift in medium-term momentum, reflecting price action over two timeframes. As we can see from the weekly MACD, things don’t look too clever for Bitcoin:

History tells us that when the MACD flips red after a prolonged period of green, trouble is on the way: prior crosses also took place in January 2018, August 2019, and November 2021, with Bitcoin entering a slump on every occasion, a year-long slump in the case of 2018. What’s made worse is the upward trend has been going for longer than on any previous occasion, suggesting that if it isn’t exhausted already it will be very soon.

Other indicators also suggest that the second half of 2023 will not be particularly pleasant. The Bitcoin Cloud indicator is echoing late 2019 when the bubble burst following a bounce from the bear market bottom:

If Bitcoin does spend the next few months in a downtrend, where can we expect it to end up? Looking at the weekly chart, the area of $20,000 is a very strong possibility for a second bottom, given that $15,500 only got tapped following the collapse of FTX:

If history does repeat itself and Bitcoin spends the next 6-12 months gently letting the air back out of its tires, we can expect some chopping around $20,000-$24,000 before gearing up for the next bull run later in 2024.

Just keep your powder dry, folks.

The post Is the Bear Market Rally Over? appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• Bitcoin still looks good for $32,000 despite a dip below $30,000 last night
• It still sits above an important support zone
• $35,500 is not off the table, although Bitcoin is looking a little over-extended

Bitcoin still looks good for $32,000 and possibly higher, despite a dip under $30,000 last night. Following its big move last week Bitcoin fell from $30,550 to $29,738 last night, but the slight rebound ensured that it is consolidating at an area of support at $30,000 again. Bitcoin has been operating in this region for a week now, with many believing that there is more fuel in the tank to carry on the rally that started on January 1st.

$30,000 Level Remains Key

Bitcoin’s current position is very clearly highlighted on a weekly chart, with the importance of the $30,000 level being obvious:

 Had Bitcoin rejected here when it first tapped it last week, we could have seen a rejection all the way back to $28,000. Instead, price has consolidated around this important area, showing signs that an upward move is more likely than the alternative. As we have pointed out previously, the next key level is $32,000 followed by $36,000:

If Bitcoin is truly bullish and money is waiting to come in from the sidelines, which is not currently the global sentiment, then we can expect something like this to play out to support a bullish narrative:

If something like this were to play out then alts would enjoy another rally and we would be discussing another full-on bull run, or at least a period of accumulation before the next leg up. This fits in with the theory that the next cycle starts this year and accelerates next year with the halving.

What may be more likely however, given that Bitcoin has already gone 100% and many alts have done multiples since January, is that $36,000 acts as the ultimate resistance and Bitcoin bounces between $32,000 and $36,000 for the rest of the year. Don’t forget that we still don’t know what plans the Federal Reserve has to reduce inflation for the rest of this year and the next, and this is still a game of musical chairs until fresh capital is ready to come into the market.

Weekly RSI Hits November 2021 Level

What’s worth noting is that on the weekly level the RSI is at its highest level since the November 2021 top, suggesting that, even if Bitcoin does have some juice left, the tank may almost be empty for this current run:

This is hardly surprising given the three-and-a-half-month run that the crypto market has been on, and, as those in the space will know, nothing lasts forever.

The post Bitcoin Looking Good for $32,000 Despite Sunday Reversal appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• Bitcoin crossed $30,000 last night for the first time in 10 months
• If it can hold above $29,000 there is a chance that a final push to $32,000 may be on the cards
• Alt season could soon also be upon us as the bear market rally comes to an end

Bitcoin burst through $30,000 last night as its dominance hit a level that suggests a mini alt season soon be upon us. Having been stuck underneath the resistance level of $28,000 for around a month, Bitcoin finally gained the momentum to break through this glass ceiling and head toward its next logical target of $32,000. At the same time, the Bitcoin dominance chart has hit a key resistance area that typically means that alts may be about to get the chance to play catch up.

Bitcoin Finally Clears $28,000

Bitcoin has been acting like a stablecoin of late, stuck underneath the seemingly impenetrable $28,000 region for weeks, but this finally broke last night, allowing Bitcoin to hit $30,450 before subsiding back a few hundred dollars and cooling down. What matters now is where it settles, as this will indicate its future direction.

As we can see, the move through $28,000 has now undone the impact of not just the FTX collapse but also the Celsius collapse from last year:

As we can see, the current resistance area would be a natural place for Bitcoin to not just pause temporarily but in fact finish this bear market rally, but a closer look reveals that $32,000 might actually be a more fitting place to end it:

This would suggest there may be a little more gas left in the tank, and assuming Bitcoin doesn’t just shoot right to it, a scenario like this may be in the offing:

While $32,000 does seem a logical place for Bitcoin’s bear rally to call it a day, it actually wouldn’t historically be the most likely point of termination. History in fact suggests that $47,000 is the region where Bitcoin would top out, but the data to make these assumptions comes from prior bear markets when global finances weren’t stretched as thin as they are. This means it’s unlikely that Bitcoin will see this level before correction.

Alt Season Coming?

While Bitcoin has been having all the fun of late, it may soon be the turn for alt coins. Bitcoin’s dominance has been growing ever since the rally began at the turn of the year and has seen its market share grow from 41% to 48%, hitting a resistance point that has been an alt season harbinger going back to the prior bull run:

Anyone who missed out on Bitcoin’s run from $15,000 will be hoping they can make it up by bagging a quick-running alt coin, but if this bear market rally really is nearing its end then the chances will be one time only.

The post Bitcoin Bursts Through $30,000 as Dominance Hits Key Point appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• Bitcoin looks poised to revisit the $21,000 region as various narratives combine to drive it down
• It has already started the week back in the middle of a seven-month range
• U.S. economic data and FUD over MtGox payouts are two narratives that could usher in a bloody March

Bitcoin looks poised to roll over and retest the lows of its current range as a busy week of narratives begins. Having been rejected by the 200-week Moving Average (MA), Bitcoin has succeeded in putting in a higher high but not a higher low, leaving it starting the week underneath the middle of the current range. With the lots of U.S. financial data coming out this week and later into the month, and the narrative over the release of MtGox bitcoin, there could soon be some more bargain bitcoin to be had.

Bitcoin Echoing Other Bear Markets

The clearest way we can look at the current state of Bitcoin is through the Bitcoin Cloud Indicator, which is showing exactly the same pattern as in previous bear markets:

Having broken above the 200-day MA at the end of January, it now looks as though the momentum has run out and we are about to see a repeat of 2019/20 where Bitcoin needed two or three such rallies before a bull market proper could begin. This is indicative of a bear market rally followed by accumulation.

Bitcoin’s perilous situation is reflected in the weekly chart:

Bitcoin did not react well to hitting the 200-week and 50-week MA’s, dropping back down to the middle of the range, where it has started the week. The fact that it couldn’t put in a higher high to match its higher low is reflective of the awkward position it now finds itself in, having failed on multiple occasions to break $25,200.

U.S. Data and MtGox Payouts Contributing to Negativity

Bitcoin is certainly finely poised at the moment, and it’s not clear which way it’s going to go. Therefore we have to look and see if any narratives might drive it this week, and we can look no further than the fact that we will be getting major decisions with regard to the U.S. economy this week with the jobs report and later this month with a potential interest rate hike in the offing if the data isn’t suggestive of a reduction in inflation.

Add to that the FUD over MtGox bitcoin payouts starting this week (they’re not) and you have the perfect recipe for a lower Bitcoin price in the coming weeks.

The post Bitcoin Poised to Roll Over as Narratives Build Up appeared first on FullyCrypto.

• Bitcoin remains unable to break a key $23,700 barrier
• This band of resistance has been keeping Bitcoin down since July last year
• Another rejection here would likely send Bitcoin back down to the $22,000 region

Bitcoin has started the week underneath an important resistance area, with its reaction over the coming days dictating its short to medium term path. This $23,700 region has proved pivotal in keeping Bitcoin’s price down since July last year, and Bitcoin can forget any longer term gains until it can defeat it. However, with the U.S. Dollar Index looking topped out after its short run, it may get a chance soon.

Bitcoin Making Lower Highs and Lower Lows

Bitcoin has been in a downwards trend since it failed to break $25,000 at the third time of asking last week, finally bouncing at $22,700 and rebounding right into an area  of resistance that has been significant since last year. One look at the 4-hour chart shows us the situation clearly enough:

We can clearly see that Bitcoin has rejected at this resistance band, the same band from which it bounced last month. The importance of this area is emphasized when we look at the long term picture:

Each time Bitcoin has crossed this threshold it has rejected shortly afterwards, so crossing it and staying above it for a sustained period is clearly a critical step in its road to recovery. The other concerning factor is that Bitcoin had been putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows on the 4-hour for the past week, suggesting a downtrend is in play. If Bitcoin can’t reclaim this band of resistance and turn it into support then further declines towards the next support level of $21,700 are likely, unless it can double bottom at $22,700.

DXY Topping Out?

One factor which might work in Bitcoin’s favor is the U.S. Dollar Index, which is coming into its own area of resistance:

The DXY has been bouncing since the start of February, and is getting towards a point where we can expect a slowdown. However, should the dollar push through this region, either now or at some point in the future, this would indicate that it is in its own bull run, which would make for a very unpleasant rest of 2023 for Bitcoin indeed.

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