ApolloMarkets is a next-generation AI-powered intelligence platform that improves prediction market accuracy by comparing an event’s market odds with probabilities from related, correlated events. Using advanced reasoning-focused LLMs via OpenRouter, ApolloMarkets synthesizes these “correlated signals” to estimate a more reliable true probability than the market’s current consensus..

It detects market inefficiencies, providing an Alpha Index and Confidence Score to help traders identify undervalued or overvalued positions.

• High-Fidelity Synthesis: Uses Bayesian-style inference to adjust probabilities based on correlated event outcomes.
• Correlated Signal Analysis: Manually input related events (e.g., "Fed Rate Cut" vs. "Bitcoin Price") to see how they impact the target prediction.
• Quantitative "Apollo Prob": Generates a distinct probability coupled with a divergence metric (Delta) from the market price.
• Confidence & Alpha Scoring: specific metrics to gauge the strength of the prediction and the potential market inefficiency.
• Visual Intel: Interactive charts visualizing the spread between Market Price and Apollo's Predicted Probability.
• Reasoning Engine: Provides a detailed, text-based synthesis report explaining the reasoning behind the numbers.

• Frontend Framework: React 19 (via Vite)
• Language: TypeScript
• Styling: Tailwind CSS (Custom "Slate & Indigo" premium aesthetic)
• Visualization: Recharts
• AI Intelligence: OpenRouter API (DeepSeek R1 / Chimera)
• State Management: React Hooks

• Node.js (v18 or higher recommended)
• npm or yarn
• An API Key from OpenRouter

1. Clone the repository:

   git clone https://github.com/yourusername/apollomarkets-local.git
   cd apollomarkets-local

2. Install dependencies:

   npm install

3. Configure Environment: Create a .env.local file in the root directory and add your OpenRouter API key:

   VITE_OPENROUTER_API_KEY=sk-or-your-actual-api-key-here
   VITE_SITE_URL=http://localhost:5173
   VITE_SITE_NAME=ApolloMarkets

4. Run the application:

   npm run dev

5. Open http://localhost:5173 in your browser.

1. Define Target: Enter the Market Question you want to analyze (e.g., "Will Bitcoin hit $100k?").
2. Set Market Price: Input the current trading probability from the prediction market.
3. Add Signals: Add 2-3 "Correlated Signals"—events that, if true or false, would significantly impact the target.
   • Example: "Fed Cuts Rates by 50bps" (High Correlation to Crypto Asset Prices)
4. Run Analysis: Click "Run Analysis" to let the AI agent synthesize the data.
5. Review Intel: Read the generated report and check the "Apollo Prob" vs. "Market Price" to find your edge.

ApolloMarkets is a research tool. The predictions generated are probabilistic estimates based on AI synthesis of provided inputs. They do not constitute financial advice. Prediction markets involve significant risk.