From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
From the creators of The Daily Reckoning, I.O.U.S.A, Empire of Debt and The Daily Missive
December 3, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
A conversation with John Robb, Grey Swan Contributor, on the war with Iran and geopolitical effects in the age of networked warfare.
March 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The IEA is weighing the largest coordinated oil reserve release in its history, but global supply risks remain as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz faces ongoing disruption…
March 12, 2026 • Andrew Packer
March 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 12, 2026 • Andrew Packer
Roughly $72 billion of loans in the $1.8 trillion private credit market are already in default, and some estimates suggest that number could climb much higher. Now firms like BlackRock, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase are slowing redemptions as investors try to get out.
March 11, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
March 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Oil prices opened significantly higher in overnight trading, following a weekend of news about shutdowns in Saudi Arabia and the bombing of Iranian oil infrastructure.
March 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Through the first 41 trading days of 2026, the S&P 500 traded within a 2.7% range — the narrowest start to any year since 1928. The first 41 days of 2008 spanned roughly 35%. In 2020, the range ran near 15%. Even the placid 1950s never opened this tight…
March 6, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Since the Iran attack began, global markets have been chaotic. Despite some wild intraday swings this week, the U.S. stock market has held up well. When bombs go flying, capital moves from frontier markets to safer shores. And even though the U.S. has been the one to aggressively move against Iran, capital that was going to foreign markets has shifted back to New York.
March 5, 2026 • John Robb
Ever since the re-election of Trump, the blue tribe has been searching for another event it could use to repeat its success with BLM. They thought they had finally found it with ICE (its enforcement actions produce numerous excesses it could exploit).
March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
In normal times, the Chinese operate a quota system for refined product exports; this week, the throttle tightened. And even though they are Asia’s third-largest exporters of “energy,” the country still draws close to half its imported crude from the Gulf, including nearly all Iranian shipments.
March 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Back in October 2025, following the collapse of firms like First Brands and Tricolor, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of hidden risks in the $3 trillion private credit market. “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” Dimon said, suggesting that further defaults and “garbage lending” issues will likely emerge.
March 4, 2026 • John Robb
Given our country’s history, a new middle based on proprietary autonomous AIs would generate a level of prosperity, dynamism, and societal success an order of magnitude greater than any AI-enabled socioeconomic system without it. Decentralized economic superempowerment would also serve as a bulwark against a slide into the long night of AI-enabled tyranny. So, what do we need to do to make it inevitable rather than a possibility?
March 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
President Trump ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to provide political-risk insurance and financial guarantees for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
He also said the U.S. Navy could begin escorting tankers “if necessary” and “as soon as possible.”
The plan is meant to restart maritime traffic after Iran’s attacks and threats helped shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows.
March 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Nearly 90% of Iran’s exports and roughly half of Venezuela’s oil had been making its way to Chinese buyers, much of it feeding independent refineries and price-sensitive manufacturing supply chains.
March 3, 2026 • John Robb
All of the prohibitions against decapitations or other catastrophic, disruptive attacks against opposition networks have evaporated. Everyone is now free to do it, and in most cases, there won’t be a response. Not only that, it’s not hard to do, so nearly everyone can (which is the reason this prohibition was put in place).
