Metaforecast

What percentage of all actively managed domestic US equity funds will underperform the S&P Composite 1500 index for the first half of 2025?

39%

At least 50.00%, but less than 65.00%

33%

At least 65.00%, but less than 80.00%

15%

At least 35.00%, but less than 50.00%

12%

80.00% or more

1%

Less than 35.00%

★★★☆☆

GJOpen

Forecasts: 30

Forecasters: 23

Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

3%

Very unlikely

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers..

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $22k

Will Edílson Capetinha win Big Brother Brasil 26?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve to the contestant who wins Big Brother Brasil 26.

If Big Brother Brasil 26 concludes without a winner being declared, or if Big Brother Brasil 26 has otherwise not concluded by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $14k

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

75%

Likely

President Joe Biden has issued an Executive Order addressing the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI), acknowledging its potential for promise and peril. The order emphasizes responsible AI use while warning against irresponsible...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 79

Did Lee Harvey Oswald kill John F Kennedy?

78%

Likely

Rob Reiner has a podcast entitled Who Killed JFK? Some surprising facts emerge especially how inept the Warren Commission report was.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 12

Volume: M1.4k

Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 16 above $155?

38%

Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No..

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $646

By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

10%

Unlikely

YES Resolution:

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2050, humanity has reached Type I status on the Kardashev scale, signifying the ability to use and store all of the energy available on planet Earth.

Reaching the Engery combustion of...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 17

Volume: M1.3k

Daily Coinflip

49%

About Even

! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these !

Yes = heads

No = tails

(Day 338)

Current totals: 173 heads vs 164 tails

Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)

Yesterday’s flip: NO

@FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome

1 = heads

2...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 30

Volume: M7.1k

Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026?

74%

Likely

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms the S&P 500 (SPX) in the listed month, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”..

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $5.2k

GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India

35%

Unlikely

Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)

★★☆☆☆

GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy

In NY Times v. Microsoft/OpenAI, will a federal court issue any injunctive relief for the NY Times against any named defendant related to the use of its copyrighted materials to train large language models (LLMs) before 1 March 2025?

30%

Unlikely

On 27 December 2023, the New York Times Company (NY Times) filed a civil complaint in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York seeking, among other things, action by the court to prevent Microsoft and OpenAI from using its...

★★★☆☆

GJOpen

Forecasts: 63

Forecasters: 22

Will Dwarkesh Patel's "Notes on China" video reach 1M views by EOY2025?

17%

Unlikely

Dwarkesh recently released a video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UU9jbImVsNY

This video is a version of his other Substack post: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/notes-on-china

Resolves YES if the video reaches 1 million views by the end of 2025.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 15

Volume: M797

Kash Patel out by March 31?

3%

Very unlikely

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Patel's...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $8.3k

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 20?

14%

Unlikely

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $414

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)

10%

Very unlikely

Countries currently known to have nuclear weapons are the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.

This includes wartime use, tests, peaceful use, etc. -- any detonation.

A nuclear detonation...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 11

Volume: M2.6k

Is Imu female?

38%

Unlikely

Is Imu female

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 117

Volume: M20k

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

93%

Very likely

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $18k

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

52%

About Even

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will...

★★★★☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $98k

Will Tesla officially release a car that costs $30,999 USD or less by the end of February 2026?

22%

Unlikely

resolves yes if the vehicle is announced and is available for sale OR preorder with a confirmed release window

[image]

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 17

Volume: M505

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

60%

About Even

For example, if they allow SSH access to an environment that allows "essentially" full access to the weights, even if it's very difficult in practice to actually download all the weights (possiby intentionally so), this resolves Yes.

This market...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 60

Volume: M2.9k

Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025?

40%

Unlikely

Will the State of Israel provoke or directly cause the current regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran to collapse and be replaced by a new government by the end of 2025?

The Islamic Republic of Iran has ruled Iran since 1979. It has survived a war...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 89

Volume: M18k