The State of the Rotation Trade

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 2.23.26

Unless you’ve been living in a cave, you are likely aware that the “Rotation Trade” has been the toast of the town this year. Apparently the powers that be decided that the stock market was going to look a lot different in 2026 than it has over the last several years. You know, where companies that have been growing at remarkable rates have led the way – while the rest of the market’s “troops” lagged badly. As in, very badly – for a very long time. So, as is often the case on Wall Street, the trading desks at the big banks and hedge fund managers decided it was time to flip the script in the new year. Time for a good ol’ mean reversion trade…

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No Change in Bull Market

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 3.13.26

In the very short-term it looks like the major stock market indices are going to at least revisit this week’s low sooner than later. That scenario leaves open my worst case scenario of the 6500 area in the coming days and weeks. 6500 is not an exact point. It is a general range. Hitting that area would also have me downgrade the upside target for the Q2 peak. This is all part of the bottoming process I wrote about the other day. Let’s see what happens. And no, nothing has changed in my view that the bull market remains alive…

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Time For Caution?

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 2.27.26

For a few months now we have been highlighting this shift from Growth to Value, which can be useful in understanding market context. When Growth leads, it tends to be a sign of strength for the overall market and economy. And when Value leads, it tends to be a time for caution. That doesn’t necessarily mean the market is falling, but…

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War and Equities

By: Euan Sinclair Hull Tactical

Published: 2.27.26

The Rothschilds were one of the world’s richest families and went on to form a financial dynasty. In 1815, they were rumored to have made a fortune when they used a carrier pigeon to send the result of the Battle of Waterloo (which was “a damn close-run thing the nearest run-thing you ever saw in your life” according to the victorious general, the Duke of Wellington) from Belgium to London. Having the news before his rivals gave Nathan an edge over his competitors on the floor of the Stock Exchange. This is a good story. It isn’t true, but…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Early Warning Indicator Board , which is designed to suggest when the market may be ripe for a reversal on a short-term basis.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Risk is Rising

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 3.16.26

The conflict involving Iran has altered market dynamics and increased uncertainty. Whether this ultimately develops into a more prolonged bear market remains unclear. However, recent market trends suggest that overall market risk is increasing. In response to the changing environment, we have reduced exposure…

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A Topping Pattern?

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 2.28.26

For the past five months, the major indexes have moved sideways inside a broad consolidation (Darvas Box). That type of action often represents digestion after a strong advance. However, over the past month, conditions…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Crude Awakening

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 3.13.26

The Iran war, now in its 13th day, continues to dominate the tape. On Monday, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, broke his silence with a defiant first address where he vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as a ‘tool of pressure’ and called for additional attacks on U.S. military bases in the region. The statement renewed fears that this conflict may drag on…

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Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 3.11.26

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the current market trends..

Watch Now…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Euan Sinclair, Hull Tactical, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

The post March 2026: The State of the Rotation Trade | No Change in Bull Market | Time For Caution? | War and Equities | Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | Risk is Rising | A Topping Pattern? | Crude Awakening | Market Insights Video first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.

Who To Believe: The Trader Bros or the CEOs?

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 2.9.26

One of the biggest features in this market is the massive “argument” going on over the state of the AI trade. The question is, which side of the argument should you believe? Is it Wall Street’s trader bros who have shorted software stocks at a record rate or the CEOs of the world’s biggest, most profitable companies?

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Bears Have It All Wrong, Again

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 2.9.26

The Dow Industrials hit my long-standing target of 50,000 which I first offered in Q4 2022. Now what? I dunno. I need to run more projections. For a market that’s right near all-time highs, folks are only chirping about the negatives. I cannot tell you how many times I hear something like “BUT BUT BUT” and then some political remark. Folks know that I don’t care about narratives. Biden was going to crush the economy. Trump was going to wreck the markets. All the nonsense. Gather data. Model data. Analyze data. Execute on data. It doesn’t mean that’s always right. It’s not…

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Cracks In The Foundation?

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 1.30.26

The stock market is still somewhat overvalued, but that doesn’t mean it will stop going up just yet. And while I’m not as “bullish” on 2026 as many others out there, I’d agree that there isn’t much to be concerned with in the immediate future. There are indeed small cracks to the foundation driving prices upward, but what eventually happens to break it is still unknown…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Factors Board , which is designed to be a summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

February’s Can Be Tough

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 2.9.26

While seasonality suggests February can be one of the more difficult months of the year for the stock market, for now there don’t seem to be many reasons to be defensive…

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Line In The Sand

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 1.31.26

For me, the QQQ and volume tell the story here. Together, these two can help determine whether this consolidation is a pause within an uptrend or the early stages of a breakdown…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

A (Very) Rough Reset

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 2.6.26

Volatility swept through the markets this week as investors had much to digest. Software and tech stocks began to slide and put equities under pressure. The selling in tech sparked a broader bout of risk-off sentiment that echoed throughout the major indexes and fueled what looked to be a substantial weekly decline…

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A Token For Your Thoughts

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 12.26.25

When the terms “token” and “tokenization” first started cropping up in the news, I had to look up what they meant. I’m glad I had that background when I saw that tokenization will be coming to an investment near you, probably next year. Without getting too wonky on the topic, the SEC (the governing body of the investment industry) has given a go-ahead for tokenization of investments using blockchain technology. ..

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Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 2.4.26

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the current market trends..

Watch Now…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

The post February 2026: Who To Believe: The Trader Bros or the CEOs? | Bears Have It All Wrong, Again | Cracks In The Foundation? | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | February’s Can Be Tough | A (Very) Rough Reset | A Token For Your Thoughts | Latest Market Insights Video first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.

Macro 2026: The Economy & Earnings

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 1.12.26

Looking ahead, most every Wall Street bank is looking for another strong year in the stock market. How is this possible with all the fretting about AI Bubbles, geopolitical events, inflation, and extreme valuations, you ask? Since this is a question I have grappled with myself recently, I thought this might be a good time to review the big-picture fundamental drivers of the stock market…

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2026 Fearless Forecast – The Worst Year Since 2022

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 1.15.26

I have been publishing my Fearless Forecast for more than 30 years. I don’t know many or really any other advisor that sticks their neck out like this year in and year out. That’s one of the many reasons why we are different. I love producing original content, especially when it flies in the face of consensus or conventional wisdom. Our industry has a lot of lazy people who do not do their homework. They do not gather data, analyze data, model data and act on data. Instead, they blindly follow the mediocre research of others. I don’t know how individual investors tolerate and accept the regurgitation of nonsense by advisors who simply do not do their homework. But back to the forecast…

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Managing Volatility is Mission Critical

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 12.26.25

This year we did a deep review of our investment strategies to evaluate what’s working, what isn’t, and opportunities to create greater efficiency. We noticed that some signals and data that had worked for over a decade were becoming unreliable and we saw the opportunity to adjust and realign what we do. The result was a more streamlined set of strategies designed to be clearer, more efficient, and easier to manage through volatility. …

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Model Board , which is designed to identify the state of the primary cycle of the stock market.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Eyes Wide Open

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 1.12.26

While uncertainty remains, the weight of the evidence reflected in the charts continues to favor a continuation of the current uptrend. As we enter the new year, we have not made any changes to our investment strategy positions, but we remain focused on monitoring shifts in market leadership…

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Where Do We Go From Here?

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 1.3.26

Long-term, the stock market remains in a bullish trend. However, over the past several months, the market has moved sideways, with price action becoming increasingly choppy. In this update, we look beneath the surface at key risk-on industry groups, namely semiconductors and Bitcoin. These areas often provide early clues about market direction. Together, these charts help frame what to watch next as the market approaches a potential inflection point…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

New Year, New Highs, New Leaders

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 1.9.26

For the last few market notes, we have talked about the subtle shift in market leaders. The tech stocks that have led for the last couple of years have
recently taken a back seat to the staider value names. While the shift has not been dramatic, it has been going on for over a month and deserves a little
respect…

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A Token For Your Thoughts

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 12.26.25

When the terms “token” and “tokenization” first started cropping up in the news, I had to look up what they meant. I’m glad I had that background when I saw that tokenization will be coming to an investment near you, probably next year. Without getting too wonky on the topic, the SEC (the governing body of the investment industry) has given a go-ahead for tokenization of investments using blockchain technology. ..

Continue Reading…

Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 1.13.26

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the current market trends..

Watch Now…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

The post January 2026: The Macro View: The Economy & Earnings | 2026 Fearless Forecast – The Worst Year Since 2022 | Managing Volatility is Mission Critical | Eyes Wide Open | Where Do We Go From Here? | New Year, New Highs, New Leaders | A Token For Your Thoughts | Latest Market Insights Video first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.

Bull vs Bear: The State of the AI Trade

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 12.15.25

Don’t look now fans, but the AI trade – you know, that high-octane corner of the market loaded with new-fangled semiconductor chips, cloud plays large and small, and those mind-bending large-language models – is still kicking up plenty of dust in the market. The question, of course, is whether the trade, which has been in vogue for going on 3 years now, is something we should continue with…

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Minor Pullback Sets Up New Highs

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 12.15.25

Friday was one ugly day, especially in the popular and sexy AI space which got hit very hard. It is amazing that these one day plunges are so often accompanied by calls of a 10% correction or a bear market or worse. Then stocks recover and the bears hibernate again. Rinse and repeat. I don’t like the fact that a number of key indices got right back to the old highs and failed. And until we see new highs across the board, I will have the same small concerns. However, I continue to believe that the indices will gather themselves and run to fresh, all-time highs into 2026…

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Looking Ahead

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 11.28.25

Volatility has returned, but just enough to give us a standard 5% market pullback in the S&P 500. It gave us a nice entry point to add new money into our models and even nudge them slightly more into the market. For now, the big picture is positive. But cracks are beginning to be more evident in the data, so our outlook in 2026 isn’t as positive as the past two years…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Price Trend Board , which is designed to tell us about the overall technical health of the market’s trend.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Using Some New Tools in Portfolios

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 12.15.25

We introduced market neutral mutual funds to the our Core and Balanced strategies in January of this year in response to
heightened uncertainty in the interest rate environment. This addition was intended to help the strategies better achieve
their primary objective: delivering reasonable returns while significantly reducing overall portfolio volatility. Since making
this adjustment…

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Inflection Point

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 11.8.25

In our last newsletter, we noted that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was likely due for a short-term pullback after reaching the upper boundary of its rising price channel. That expectation played out as the index drifted lower over the past week…

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Bullish Path Remains

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 12.12.25

Despite the fact that Fed Chair Powell indicated that there is likely going to be only one interest rate cut in 2026, we believe we are likely to get more as a friendlier chairman takes the helm of the Federal Reserve. Our take is the hope of a more dovish Fed will likely continue the rally into 2026…

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Quantum is Clearly The Next Big Thing

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 11.28.25

Quantum computing has been in the news more and more these days, and as I study this subject, the more I am convinced that quantum computing will become the next great investment paradigm. Now, what do I mean by paradigms? These are not investments, per se. They are technological platforms that can spawn dozens of new industries. Each industry can inspire hundreds of companies, and it’s at this company level that investment opportunities exist…

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Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 12.15.25

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…

Watch Now…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

The post December Edition: Bull vs Bear: The State of the AI Trade | Minor Pullback Sets Up New Highs | Looking Ahead | The Trend is Your Friend – The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | Using Some New Tools in Portfolios | Inflection Point | The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model | Bullish Path Remains | Quantum is Clearly The Next Big Thing | Latest Market Insights Video | Putting Money Where Mouth Is – The NAAIM Member Exposure Index first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.

Time To Panic? Or…

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 11.18.25

Stocks have moved into a bit of a risk-off mode lately as gloom and doom, talk of bubbles (which everyone sees this time around!), and of course, impending economic calamity appears to be the order of the day. So, with tech winners diving is it time to panic? Or better to…

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Bonds Outperform Bitcoin With New Setup

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 11.21.25

On Wednesday I wrote about my total lack of conviction on how Nvidia’s stock would react to earnings, even if I knew exactly what they would report. Well, they reported an absolute homerun, blowout quarter with everything clicking on all cylinders. The stock and the stock market soared at the open. Lots of chirping and giddiness on social media. However, a funny thing happened on the way to the celebration; sellers flooded the markets….

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Stay The Course

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 10.31.25

We haven’t seen much volatility in the past few months as we would have expected. But we also never saw a reason to do much selling. The theme has been to stay the course until the market sees a reason to be cautious. That just hasn’t happened, so staying largely invested has been the play. As we move into a stronger portion of the year, we will be looking for opportunities to lean a bit more into risk assets as it seems appropriate…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Factors Board , which is a summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Fear Sells Newspapers

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 11.17.25

This past week included headlines that could make it feel as though the stock market was collapsing. Remember, financial news is designed to attract attention, often by sounding extreme. That is why we rely on charts and objective indicators to determine the actual condition of the markets. None of the charts shown above suggest anything approaching a sustained downturn. In addition to following the charts, we apply a disciplined approach to managing risk…

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Inflection Point

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 11.8.25

In our November newsletter, we noted that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was likely due for a short-term pullback after reaching the upper boundary of its rising price channel. That expectation played out as the index drifted lower over the past week…

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Driving In The Fog

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 11.14.25

During the most recent FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted that without critical inflation data, policy makers would be “driving in the fog” and that the smart thing to do would be to “slow down.” Now that the data is in question, the market is appearing to price in the chance that the Fed does in fact pump the breaks in regard to the rate cutting cycle. In addition to official data flow coming to a halt, numerous high-level Federal Reserve officials gave statements this week that expressed caution and decreased the likelihood that we see a December rate cut.

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A Decade of No Returns?

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 10.31.25

The Wall Street Propaganda Machine, as I call it, makes it sound like passive, index fund focused, buy-and-hold investing is the only way to go. Up and down the line, Wall Street’s life is made easier if investors drink this Kool-Aid, just sit there and take whatever the market dishes out. Most of these firms tell worried clients “don’t sell, just be patient, the market always recovers, etc.” But if you look at what these same firms do with their own portfolios, they are extremely active traders. There is a big disconnect between what Wall Street firms want you to do and what they do themselves.

Continue Reading…

Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 10.8.25

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…

Watch Now…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

The post November Edition: Time to Panic, Or… | Bonds Outperform Bitcoin With New Setup | Stay The Course | Stay The Course | Inflection Point | Driving in the Fog | A Decade of No Returns? first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.

Can Small Caps Continue To Shine?

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 10.6.25

During the current bull market, there has been a lot of angst about the concentration of gains by a dozen or so stocks within the major indices. Our furry friends in the bear camp remind us that the “breadth” of the market is important and that markets where only a few stocks lead the parade have historically become problematic in the long run. Don’t look now fans, but small caps have been making a comeback lately. So, it is time to move away from the tech leaders and into the small cap arena?..

Continue Reading…

Pullback Not A Bubble – How To Manage Positions

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 10.8.25

There is so much talk about an AI bubble, which continues to be nonsense. I do enjoy reading the tweets and emails about how wrong I am, warning me of impending doom. Same folks who warned me about recession in early April and back in 2022 and 2023 because of inflation. These folks have become excellent contrary indicators. The markets are stretched. 100%. They have grinded and crept higher since mid-April without more than a mild pullback. And the masses remain stuck with cash and lower risk positions that have woefully trailed. A pullback is coming, but…

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This Market Not Rhyming

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 9.26.25

As I’ve said many times, the seasonality factors are an excellent roadmap as to where the market tends to go at certain points during the year. Where the magic happens is when market trends start to agree with seasonality. So far, we don’t have an agreement…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Board , which is designed to identify the state of the primary cycle of the stock market.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

This Trend Is Your Friend

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 10.6.25

There are always many factors that influence stock market performance, though they aren’t always clear in real time. What
we can observe is the consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, along with shallow pullbacks across multiple asset
classes—signs that the prevailing uptrend remains intact. These trends will eventually shift, though the timing is uncertain.
Until that occurs, we will remain invested and continue to participate in this favorable market environment…

Continue Reading…

Momentum Carries Into Fall

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 10.5.25

The market continues to show impressive resilience. The S&P 500 has maintained its upward path, staying above important support levels and showing no signs of breaking its longer-term trend. This consistency reinforces confidence that the advance which began in the spring is still healthy…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Bears Still On Vacation, So…

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 10.3.25

The S&P has enjoyed five straight positive months, and
October is off to a good start for potentially another positive month. With the S&P stretched to the upside, a small
correction would not be unexpected. Any correction would likely find support at the 50-day moving average – 3.6% down
from current levels. If/when that decline comes, we continue to advise buying the dip with any excess cash…

Continue Reading…

Venting And The Beauty of AI

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 9.26.25

I was helping a local charity make use of an empty building. I fed a couple of sentences describing my idea and the building to an AI, asking for a quick feasibility study. In half a minute, it spat out a business plan, complete with labor costs, equipment needed, Arizona rules, and max usage figures I could expect. The whole proposal took me less than 30 minutes to create—what once would’ve devoured a weekend…

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Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 10.8.25

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…

Watch Now…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

The post October Edition: Can Small Caps Continue To Shine? | Pullback Not A Bubble – How To Manage Positions | This Market Not Rhyming | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | This Trend Is Still Your Friend | Momentum Carries Into Fall | Bears Still On Vacation, So… | Venting And The Beauty of AI | Latest Market Insights Video | NAAIM Exposure Index first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.

All About What You Own

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 9.2.25

While attending our daughter’s wedding reception gatherings in England, the subject of the US stock market came up in conversation quite often. Although the views of the market by the blokes residing on the other side of the pond were interesting and varied widely, I was asked for my takeaway a time or two. I opined that the current market environment is quite different than “usual.” I argued that the US market is oftentimes driven by macro fundamental factors such as the economy, inflation, valuations, or the Fed, but that this cycle is a horse of a different color…

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About September Being Negative…

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 9.3.25

The month of September is here. I have heard from a number of folks warning me that it’s the worst month of the year and I should take action. Someone actually told me that I should sell everything until October begins. Well folks, here are some facts, not narratives. On average the month of September yields a -1% return. But upon closer inspection the -1% return is not linear. Here is what we know from data. …

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On Vacation

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 8.30.25

We were expecting volatility to pick up in August, but that hasn’t really happened. After a quick drop at the end of July, most broad indexes marched higher – at least until the middle of the month. After that, I think the market took a vacation and largely went sideways from there. So…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Factors Board , which is a summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Not As Bad As Advertised

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 9.2.25

August delivered surprisingly strong gains—particularly notable given the month’s typical seasonal weakness. In addition, small-caps put in an impressive performance suggesting that investor risk appetite is growing…

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Riding the Trend

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 8.29.25

Overall, the market is strong across short, intermediate, and long-term time frames. As long as the index remains above its key support levels, the bullish thesis remains in play. For example, even when the index briefly dipped below the 20-day moving average in early August, it quickly recovered, reinforcing that support level and keeping the short-term outlook bullish…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Small Caps, Big Dreams

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 8.29.25

As we noted a few weeks ago, we have been
watching small caps closely. Last Friday, small
caps broke decisively to the upside. Importantly,
they have held those gains this week. With the
prospect of lower interest rates, small caps have
the potential to be a relative winner over the
coming months…

Continue Reading…

Value Investing’s Blind Spot

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 8.29.25

For decades, Benjamin Graham’s value investing approach was the holy grail—find “undervalued” stocks using trusty old ratios, hold your nose during market mood swings, and rake in long-term gains. This style made Warren Buffett a folk hero. But times have changed, and the world has gone digital—faster than you can say “TikTok.” Now, Graham’s methods are starting to look a little…let’s say, vintage…

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Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 9.2.25

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…

Watch Now…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

The post September Edition: All About What You Own | About September Being Negative | On Vacation | Not As Bad As Advertised | Riding the Trend | Small Caps, Big Dreams | Value Investing’s Blind Spot | Latest Market Insights Video first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.

Are Valuations The New Problem?

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 6.2.25

The fact that the S&P 500 recovered the vast majority of the “tariff tantrum” decline (in record time, I might add) and has yet to show any signs of a meaningful retest, should be viewed as a positive. However…

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Bulls In Charge, But Greed is Back

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 6.2.25

Markets begin June with the bulls in charge. May was a stellar month for the markets as the masses mostly wishing they were fully invested after selling into the tariff tantrum. Data don’t lie. And we saw incredible amounts of selling because folks reacted emotionally to geopolitical events which is about the worst thing anyone can do. It’s a losers game. But…

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June Tends To Be Negative When…

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 5.30.25

Seasonality suggested a generally positive month for the S&P 500 with a mid-month volatility spike. The positive month looks in-line with expectations, though the volatility was later in the month than expected. So what comes next? If we continue on the path of how the major US indexes tend to act in the first year of a presidential term, then June tends towards being a negative month…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Factors Board , which is a summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Headline Risk Doesn’t Mean Market Risk

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 6.2.25

Despite ongoing headline risks tied to trade and geopolitical developments, the markets have absorbed recent news with
relative stability, which in itself is favorable…

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Above The Mendoza Line

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 5.30.25

The phrase “above the Mendoza Line” comes from baseball, where a batting average below .200 is considered very poor. In investing, the 200-day moving average serves a similar role as a performance benchmark. When the market is trading above this level, conditions are generally considered favorable. When it drops below, it is widely viewed as a bearish signal that suggests market weakness may lie ahead…

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Adapting to the New Reality

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 5.30.25

Stock markets are very intuitive and eventually evolve to efficiently process new information. With the pace and disruption of the
current administration, it has taken awhile for Wall Street to catch up. However, the markets are beginning to adapt to the new
administration…

Continue Reading…

Can Anything Top AI?

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 5.30.25

AI is changing the world for both businesses and us here on main street, so what could possibly overtake it as the driver behind big economic gains? Robots? Maybe, but they will primarily be tools driven by AI and won’t create a paradigm shift like AI has done. How about Quantum Computing?…

Continue Reading…

Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 6.2.25

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…

Watch Now…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Asher Rogovy, Magnifina, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

The post June Edition: Are Valuations A Problem? | Bulls In Charge, But Greed is Back | June Tends To Be Negative When… | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | Headline Risk Doesn’t Mean Market Risk | Above The Mendoza Line | Adapting to the New Reality | Can Anything Top AI? first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.

Clear Sailing Ahead?

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 5.12.25

Although the action last week was relatively subdued for a change, there was a big event under the surface to report on. You see, one of my favorite indicators flashed a buy signal last week. An indicator that has a very long history of signaling better days ahead. Some might even call it an “all clear” signal…

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Forecasting New Highs

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 5.12.25

When I started to forecast all-time highs, people thought I was crazy, as usual. I heard plenty from the bears and geopolitical experts how this was just a quick bounce in a bear market and I would get run over taking the bullish side. And I will freely admit that I did not see such a quick recovery. But…

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Technicals Not Much Help Here

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 4.25.25

The month of April brought continued volatility, largely driven by headlines – so much so that the fundamental and technical views of the market didn’t provide much helpful guidance. And while there is a lot of debate as to how the current economic situation (mostly regarding tariffs and interest rates) will resolve, it is far too early to tell what will happen next…

Continue Reading…

The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Board , which is identify the state of the primary cycle of the stock market.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

The Headlines are Shifting

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 5.12.25

Markets continue to respond to shifting headlines. Last month’s negative sentiment has given way to a more optimistic tone
as trade agreements materialize. Just this morning, the U.S. and China announced a deal to significantly reduce tariffs,
prompting a market surge…

Continue Reading…

Market Gains Traction

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 5.3.25

The market found its footing at support level #4 and began to turn. A powerful rally on April 9, sparked by positive tariff news, pushed the index up more than 9 percent in a single day. Following that surge, price action turned volatile and remained contained below the high of that strong move for some time as the market searched for direction…

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Buy The Dip!

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 5.9.25

There are always things to worry about, but the weight of evidence currently indicates that higher prices are ahead. Headlines will continue to create some
volatility, so a level of caution remains warranted…

Continue Reading…

A New Kind of Market

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 4.25.25

The first thing to do while investing in the stock market (whether through mutual funds, ETFs or individual stocks), is to understand the current market environment. Then you must be able to adapt to those market conditions…

Continue Reading…

Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 5.11.25

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…

Watch Now…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Asher Rogovy, Magnifina, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

The post May Edition: Clear Sailing Ahead? | Forecasting New Highs | Technicals Not Much Help Here | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | The Headlines are Shifting | Market Gains Traction | NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model Update | Buy the Dip! | A New Kind of Market | Latest Video Update | The NAAIM Exposure Index first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.

A Bad News Panic

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 3.8.25

The stock market is currently experiencing a corrective/consolidation phase with bearish narratives having dominated daily trading since the S&P 500 hit its most recent all-time high on February 19th. The question of the day thus becomes, why has the market’s tone suddenly changed? I believe the answer can be summed up with one word…

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Bulls Need Less Momentum

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 3.10.25

The markets continue to be more challenging to maneuver. Friday was the third time and second Friday during the pullback where stocks sold off sharply and then rallied to close well. The previous two times, the bears came right back to work the next day to thwart the bulls. The bulls will absolutely need to break that behavior for any kind of low to form.

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February Sticks To Script

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 2.28.25

After a positive January that recovered December losses, we’re now seeing another market pull-back that has the S&P 500 Index back below even for the month of February. But so far, this is all just in-line with what typical seasonality suggests. Historically, the second half of February tends to be a rough patch. And specifically, the last week of February tends to have a low probability of gains. So what we are seeing right now is nearly textbook perfect, as far as seasonality suggests…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Fundamentals Board , which is a summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.

View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

All About Tariffs, But…

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 3.10.25

The major stock market indexes remain on edge due to uncertainties around tariffs (among other political events). This is
understandable, as the market doesn’t like uncertainty. However, as long as the major trend of the stock market remains
positive..

Continue Reading…

Out on a Ledge

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 3.1.25

While the market remains at a technical inflection point, recent price action has been decisively bearish. The failure to break out of the top of its trading range and the strong downside momentum suggest that the risk of further declines is rising. Additionally, market breadth has deteriorated, with key risk-on assets—such as semiconductors, small caps, and discretionary stocks—underperforming defensive sectors like consumer staples. In this month’s newsletter, we will examine three key charts that highlight the current state of the market..

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Uncertainty Rules The Day

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 3.7.25

Uncertainty rules the day. From the on again, off again tariffs, the on again, off again peace talks in Ukraine, the effects of the
DOGE government cuts, etc., the market is having indigestion dealing with the back and forth and the onslaught of day-to-day
new information…

Continue Reading…

The Age of Autonomous Cars Is Here

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 2.28.25

A year or so ago when I was down in “The Valley,” as we highlanders call the Phoenix metro area, I saw several Waymo driverless taxis and said to myself, “I want to try that.” I was in Scottsdale recently and was surprised at the number of Waymo cars I saw. They were everywhere! You can recognize a Waymo by their spinning gumball machine appendages front, top and back. The driverless technology has been tested in Phoenix and a few other warm weather towns and we are on the verge of widespread adoption of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). I can imagine a time in the not-so-distant future when cars that we must drive ourselves will seem so “last century” as the kids say. So how will our lives change as this paradigm shift to AVs takes place in society?

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Latest Market Insights Video

By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments

Published: 3.11.25

Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…

Watch Now…

Defense and Uncertainty

By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund

Published: 3.9.25

Uncertainty is the market’s enemy, and escalating trade wars and tariffs could lead to slower growth and rising inflation—potentially resulting in stagflation. Tariffs will likely drive up costs across all goods and services, further fueling inflation expectations, which could ultimately hurt corporate earnings. Playing defense may be the best strategy to minimize losses in a bear market…

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The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

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The post March Edition: A Bad News Panic | Bulls Need Less Momentum | February Stuck to the Script | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | All About Tariffs, But… | Out On A Ledge | Uncertainty Rules The Day | The Age of Autonomous Cars is Here | Latest Market Insights Video | Defense and Uncertainty first appeared on The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM.