Skeptical Science

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12 2026

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:23:17 EST

Open access notables

The emerging human fingerprint on global extreme fire weather, Turco et al., Science Advances

Extreme fire weather (hot, dry, and windy conditions) has intensified globally, yet formally attributing this trend to anthropogenic climate change remains challenging. Here, we analyze global trends in extreme fire weather days (FWI95d, annual count of days with Fire Weather Index above the 95th percentile) over 1980–2023, using climate model ensembles, observational data, and fingerprint detection techniques. We find that the observed increase in extreme fire weather bears a clear externally forced signal, detectable at 99% confidence above natural variability and attributable to human-induced climate change. This emerging human-induced fingerprint on extreme fire weather highlights a benchmark for climate science and underscores the urgency of integrating these insights into wildfire risk management and adaptation strategies.

An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years, Fang et al., Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Floods regularly cause substantial damage worldwide. Changing flood characteristics, e.g., due to climate change, pose challenges to flood risk management. The spatial extent of floods is an important indicator of potential impacts, as consequences of widespread floods are particularly difficult to mitigate. The highly uneven station distribution in space and time, however, limits the ability to quantify flood characteristics and, in particular, changes in flood extents over large regions. Here, we use observation-driven routed runoff simulations over the last 70 years in Europe from a state-of-the-art hydrological model (the mesoscale Hydrologic Model – mHM) to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events. Our identified spatiotemporal flood events compare well against an independent flood impact database. We find that flood extents increase by 11.3 % on average across Europe. This increase occurs over most of Europe, except for parts of eastern and southwestern Europe. Over northern Europe, the increase in flood extent is mainly driven by the overall increase in flood magnitude caused by increasing precipitation and snowmelt. In contrast, the increasing trend in flood extent over central Europe can be attributed to an increase in the spatial extent of heavy precipitation. Overall, our study illustrates the opportunities to combine long-term consistent regional runoff simulations with a spatiotemporal flood detection algorithm to identify large-scale trends in key flood characteristics and their drivers. The detected change in flood extent should be considered in risk assessments as it may challenge flood control and water resource management.

Global record-shattering breadbasket droughts emerge from moderately extreme regional events, Li et al., Nature Communications

Simultaneous droughts across multiple maize-producing regions can strike record-shattering portions of the global maize agricultural area, threatening global food security as the system is poorly adapted to large shocks. Yet the future probability of such global droughts remains unknown. Here, we close this gap by analyzing surface soil moisture data from large ensemble climate models under future emission scenarios. During 2026-2099, the chance of at least one such event is 52% (32–80%, range across models) under an intermediate emission scenario and 60% (32–100%) under high emissions, about seven to eleven times higher than expected if there were no long-term trends in soil moisture. These elevated probabilities are primarily driven by long-term drying in Brazil, Europe, and the USA. Interestingly, global record-shattering droughts do not emerge from simultaneous regional record-shattering events, but they mostly occur when several regions simultaneously face moderately extreme droughts relative to the new climate. These results demonstrate a high potential for an upcoming global record-shattering drought in crop-producing areas, an under-recognized risk for food security.

The future of direct air capture in Canada: A systematic scenario-based exploration of barriers and possibilities, Motlaghzadeh & Schweizer, Energy Research & Social Science

Integrated assessment models often overlook the interdependencies of socio-political factors shaping the deployment direct air capture (DAC), leading to projections that may be overly optimistic. To address this gap, we systematically explore the conditions under which DAC may (or not) emerge as a competitive carbon dioxide removal (CDR) option in Canada using the system-theoretical scenario method cross-impact balances (CIB), which accommodates both qualitative and quantitative scenario factors. Based on the literature, we identified 10 key factors affecting DAC deployment such as interjurisdictional regulations, public perception, and clean electricity availability. Their interrelationships were assessed by 27 experts to develop an expert-informed CIB model that identified 15 internally consistent scenarios. Results reveal inter-related constraints that DAC must overcome to become competitive with other CDR methods. The cost of DAC remains a significant barrier; unless technological breakthroughs or economies of scale push costs down, DAC is unlikely to play a major future role. Even with cost improvements, public perception remains key—strong societal opposition, particularly around CO? transport and storage infrastructure—can delay or block projects. Additionally, interjurisdictional policy coherence matters to advance DAC deployment. From a domestic decision-maker perspective, some of these barriers—such as DAC cost—are influenced largely by global deployment and may be outside their control. However, others—such as policy coherence—can be shaped by domestic policy action. By integrating expert knowledge of qualitative factors using systematic scenario analysis, this study highlights how different institutional and socio-political configurations condition the feasibility of large-scale DAC deployment in Canada.

From committed to dismissive: how conspiracy mentality and trust in the democratic (political) system shape climate policy perspectives in Germany, Lütkes et al., Climate Policy

The implementation of new policy measures to mitigate climate often leads to public backlash, undermining their political feasibility, especially in democracies. To understand public opinion and the various positions within the polarized climate policy debate, our study draws on a representative survey conducted in Germany in 2022. We found strong evidence for four distinct groups, which we label as being ‘committed’ to, ‘worried’ about or ‘indifferent’ to climate policy initiatives, or being outright ‘dismissive’ of such policies. Distrust of democratic institutions, processes, politicians and norms as well as a tendency towards a conspiracy mentality play a crucial role in explaining the cleavage between these groups, particularly between the committed and the dismissive. The committed are a rather West German, female, democracy appreciating, urban and educated social group without a conspiracy mentality. In contrast, the dismissive group exhibits a conspiracy mentality and is sceptical of the political elite. This reflects a West German green and an East German right-wing populist milieu. The worried, who are concerned about losing their jobs, increasing social conflict and falling living standards as a result of climate policy, and the largest group of the indifferent are less well explained by the socio-demographic, attitudinal covariates and require further research. The results of the segmentation can be used to design effective climate communication and develop target group-orientated approaches.

From this week's government/NGO section:

U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters in 2025, Adam Smith, Climate Central

Research by Climate Central shows that during 2025, there were 23 individual weather and climate disasters with at least $1 billion in damages. This was the third-highest count of billion-dollar disasters (inflation-adjusted to 2025 dollars) since 1980, trailing only 2023 and 2024, with 28 and 27 events, respectively. The total, direct cost of these 23 events in 2025 was approximately $115.0 billion, with 276 direct and indirect fatalities. The author summarizes the costliest events of 2025 and puts them in the context of historical trends in billion-dollar disasters since 1980. He also explore the influence of our growing exposure, vulnerability, and climate change on the increasing trend of these expensive and deadly disasters.

Toxic Accounts. From Greenwashing to Gaslighting, Nayantara Dutta, Clean Creatives

In a first-of-its-kind research project, the author has decoded the narrative shifts in fossil fuel campaigns between 2020 and 2024, detailing how narrative strategy in oil and gas companies' advertising and public relations campaigns has shifted. The evidence documents how, between 2020 and 2024, oil and gas campaigns shifted from setting climate targets and saying “we’re part of the solution” to emphasizing fossil fuel dependence and convincing people “you can’t live without us.” In parallel, the author saw shareholders follow suit and move from supporting climate action to prioritizing fossil fuel profitability. Oil majors have always been preoccupied with social license, but now, the fossil fuel industry is radicalizing. Companies like BP and Shell, which have a history of greenwashing and made net zero pledges in 2020. Now they are going all in on fossil fuels. They are advertising false solutions like carbon capture and storage, natural gas and biofuels, which increase fossil fuel dependence.

110 articles in 53 journals by 432 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Drivers of Marine Heat Waves in the North Pacific Ocean, Cai et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0308.1

Arctic Sea Ice Meltwater as a Forcing and Feedback on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Hankel et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0254.1

Observations of climate change, effects

The emerging human fingerprint on global extreme fire weather, Turco et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adx9845

The Emergence of a Climate Change Signal in Ireland's Rainfall Extremes, Fordham & Murphy, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70346

Observed Changes in Canada’s Snowfall as Inferred from Precipitation and Daily Mean Temperatures, Qian et al., Atmosphere 10.1080/07055900.2025.2586566

Interior Antarctica is undergoing marked climate change, Bromwich et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03384-4

Changes of diurnal temperature range in different climatic regions in Europe between 1971 and 2024, Kis & Pongrácz, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108938

Attribution and Projection of Anthropogenic Suppression on Frost Extremes in China, Wang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100882

Analysis of trends and projected changes in summer and very hot days in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Trbic et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1762709

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design, Fridlind et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0242.1

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Threats of Declining Diurnal Temperature Range Over India: Deep Learning–Driven Downscaling of CMIP6 Climate Data and Emerging Hotspots, Chaturvedi et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70337

Impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pools in an alpine valley during the 21st century, Bacer et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024

Global record-shattering breadbasket droughts emerge from moderately extreme regional events, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-70700-z

Future projections of aridity change across Africa's climatic regions, Dioha et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108916

Compound North American Cold and European Wind Extremes in ERA5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future Simulations. Part 2: Dynamical Pathways, Leeding & Messori, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044939

Compound North American Cold and European Wind Extremes in ERA5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future Simulations. Part 1: Surface Extremes, Leeding & Messori, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044938

African Easterly Jets and Surface Thermal Heating Responses to Climate Change Over Central Africa in CMIP6 Models, Kuete et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044780

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Mitigating Uncertainties in CMIP6 Sea-Level Simulations From Internal Variability Using the Semi-Empirical Bayesian Ensemble, Du et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70348

Forecasting the Future With Yesterday's Climate: Temperature Bias in AI Weather and Climate Models, Landsberg & Barnes, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119740

Correction of Climate Model Winds With Preserved Spatio-Temporal and Directional Consistency, Kusumastuti et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119796

Comparative analysis of high-resolution GCMs and RCMs ensembles in simulating and projecting compound extreme events in China, Chen et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108917

Cryosphere & climate change

What Do Latest CMIP6 Global Climate Models Say About Future Arctic Sea Ice Coverage Changes?, Matthews et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70347

Regional Analysis of Snow Presence Trends in the Northern Hemisphere, Woody et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0061.1

Observed Changes in Canada’s Snowfall as Inferred from Precipitation and Daily Mean Temperatures, Qian et al., Atmosphere 10.1080/07055900.2025.2586566

Sea level & climate change

HIDRA-D: deep-learning model for dense sea level forecasting using sparse altimetry and tide gauge data, Rus et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-2177-2026

Paleoclimate

The end of gas, Svensen et al., Earth and Planetary Science Letters 10.1016/j.epsl.2008.11.015

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Thermal specialization limits evolutionary responses to climate warming in lizards, Poblete Ahumada et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2025.0593

Thermal Limits and Decline of Synechococcus Under Accelerated Warming and Marine Heatwaves, Azizah et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70791

Divergent and habitat-specific responses of benthic communities to environmental and climate change in a twenty-year time series (2004–2023) in the Northern Adriatic, Lezzi & Mazziotti, Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107989

Climate warming exacerbates moisture limitations of tree growth in water-limited forests and for drought-adapted tree species, Song et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111119

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Unprecedented Burning in Tropical Peatlands During the 20th Century Compared to the Previous Two Millennia, Wang et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70717

The Increasing Impact of Seasonality Biases on Model-Based Estimates of the Ocean Carbon Sink, Arroyo et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008713

Reduced carbon outflow from a Floridian mangrove estuary up to two years after a hurricane, Stegehuis et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03249-w

Phosphate scarcity governs methane production in the global open ocean, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2521235123

Much Larger Whole-Profile Soil Organic Carbon Stocks on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Than Previously Reported, Mao et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70808

Long-Term Effects of Freeze–Thaw Events on Ecosystem Carbon Exchange, Xu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73222

Dynamics of short-term ecosystem carbon fluxes induced by precipitation events in a semiarid grassland, Delgado-Balbuena et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-2369-2023

Drought amplifies warming-induced soil carbon loss in a decade-long experiment, Guo et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02584-2

Deep Coring Shows That Mangrove Sediments in Matang (Malaysia) Store up to Five Times More Carbon Than Previously Estimated, Wolswijk et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70773

A systematic bias in float pH leads to overestimation of derived pCO2 and underestimation of carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean, Zhang et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-43863-4

A Radiocarbon-Based Framework to Assess Soil Organic Carbon Persistence and Vulnerability Across Land-Use Types, Minich et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70799

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

The future of direct air capture in Canada: A systematic scenario-based exploration of barriers and possibilities, Motlaghzadeh & Schweizer, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104640

Reply to Sun: Real-world bulk density changes support high carbon sequestration potential of biochar, Yang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2533070123

Decarbonization

The end of gas, Svensen et al., Earth and Planetary Science Letters 10.1016/j.epsl.2008.11.015

Technological advances mitigate the impact of climate change on electric vehicle battery lifetimes, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02581-5

Recycling fossil infrastructure for cleaner energy transitions, Schlesier et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-70777-6

Molecular solar thermal energy storage in Dewar pyrimidone beyond 1.6 MJ/kg, Nguyen et al., Science 10.1126/science.aec6413

Feasibility assessment and prioritization of large-scale floating solar farms on reservoirs in semi-arid regions as an emerging clean energy solution, Anbaran et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101975

Economic Viability of Photovoltaic Systems Providing Frequency Containment Reserve, Petkovski et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202500295

Breaking the cycle: A systemic analysis of socio-technical barriers and policy priorities for biomass technology in an emerging economy, Erol et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115237

Adaptation to broken climate change mitigation: Exploring social and economic impacts of solar mini-grid electrification in Colombian island communities, Edsand et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104636

Geoengineering climate

Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering on Sea Surface Temperature in the Angolan Upwelling System, Mekonou-Tamko et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101664

Climate change communications & cognition

The role of policy appraisals and second-order beliefs in public support for climate policies in the UK, Poortinga, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2539977

The Role of Emotion in Climate Change Communication, Salama & Aboukoura, Climate Change Management 10.1007/978-3-319-69838-0_9

Silencing Greta: Exploring Digital Environmental Discourses of Gen Z on Tiktok, Causa, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2642135

Positive Images of Heat Waves Reduce the Effects of Messages About Extreme Heat among U.S. Adults, Mosallaei et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2623479

Navigating climate knowledge and anxiety in Ghana: insights from urban and peri-urban Greater Accra, Bawakyillenuo et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2642093

Information needs and methods of accessing climate information by urban children and youth in Bangladesh: a policy-practice agenda, Hossain et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2509628

From committed to dismissive: how conspiracy mentality and trust in the democratic (political) system shape climate policy perspectives in Germany, Lütkes et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2522828

Emotionally aligned and structurally sorted: How opinion groups divide on climate and asylum, Dametto et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag051

Association between Political Ideology and Climate Change Risk Perception in Anglo-Saxon Countries: Does Perceived Extreme Weather Experience Matter?, Ai et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0119.1

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Should public institutions adopt plant-based diets? Climate duties and shared leadership, Bell et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2604728

Reclaiming abandoned croplands to adapt wheat production to a warmer world, He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03386-2

Plant adaptation intelligence: lessons from extreme environments for resilient crop systems, Taye, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2026.1772986

Landowners’ attitudes toward agrivoltaic adoption: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment in Southern Italy, Sardaro et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115248

Global record-shattering breadbasket droughts emerge from moderately extreme regional events, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-70700-z

Determinants of GHG mitigation measures adoption among farmers in Europe and selected non-EU countries: a systematic review, Shahabi Ahangarkolaee et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2598522

Climate Change Can Generate Enemy-Free Space for Crop-Feeding Herbivores, Wyckhuys et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70775

Carbon emissions reduction of cropland management is substantially greater than carbon sequestrations of cropland abandonment in the North China Plain, Shi et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2542339

Assessing rice yield responses to climate change scenarios using a crop simulation model, Baydar, PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.20965

Adding value to the voluntary carbon market through small-scale agroforestry, Shin et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2574074

Adaptive capacity of agricultural institutions to climate change and the barriers: a comparative study from Turkey, Gören, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2526674

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in Flood Risk Modeling Under Climate Change: A Systematic Review, Mik?Meyer et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70045

Predicting and Projecting Extreme Precipitation in Coastal Cities with High-Resolution Modeling, Prein et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0347.1

An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years, Fang et al., Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Open Access 10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024

Climate change economics

Unintended emissions: the carbon leakage effects of the third-phase EU ETS tightening on trade-exposed Chinese firms, Ying et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2545325

Sovereign green bonds in practice: effectiveness as a climate finance instrument in emerging economies, Owusu-Mante et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2586572

Carbon tax assets for carbon tax liabilities: using CBAM to increase climate finance, Sandler & Schrag, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2543096

Addressing the challenge of stabilization clauses in resolving international energy investment disputes under climate change, Fan & Huang, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2525464

Climate change mitigation public policy research

“What we can do is contribute to EU goals”: Latvia’s strategic narrative challenges in pursuing climate neutrality, Kleinberga et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2637307

Understanding UK public preferences and attitudes to a decarbonized heating system, , Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-01978-y

Transitioning the European maritime industry to hydrogen: a system's perspective for policy making, Bianchi et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115259

Transformative transparency in the EU and UNFCCC? Assessing the perceived influence of reporting and review on climate policy in Finland, Pietarila et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2581129

Policy-driven growth of technologies to accelerate climate action, Jewell et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00765-3

Pathways for including non-carbon dioxide aviation climate effects in the European Emission Trading System, Grewe et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03265-w

Cross-national comparative assessment of synergies and conflicts in climate policy mixes, Wu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02574-4

Closing the ambition gap: Germany's energy transition in line with a 1.5ˆC carbon budget, Jürgens et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2506610

Climate policy synergy: a tripartite evolutionary game analysis of ESG compliance and tax incentives on corporate carbon governance, Qin et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1561025

Between a rock and a hard place: unpacking India’s engagement in UNFCCC transparency arrangements, van Deursen et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2524512

Barriers to limiting fossil fuel supply in UNFCCC negotiations: insights from Bangladesh, Saha, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2521119

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Unpacking Political Contestations in Tracking Climate Change Adaptation, Broek et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70048

Uncovering the climate vulnerability of China’s poverty alleviation frontiers, Zhao et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103140

The neglect of climate change-induced displacement in policy instruments: interrogating Nepal’s climate change policies and adaptation plans, Bishwokarma & Sunam, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2511258

The evidence gap index: mapping evidence where it matters for climate change impacts, Lück et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2479005

Latin American NGOs’ perceptions of cross-scale and cross-actor interactions in polycentric climate governance, Tosun et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2564740

Household-level climate vulnerability of buffalo-rearing communities in northern and western India: a composite index approach, Aiswarya et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1768137

Fostering Climate Change Education for Effective Locally-Led and Community-Led Adaptation, Imran et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70041

Dynamic linkages between climate-related policy uncertainty and knowledge systems: implications for climate resilience and sustainable development, Ali & Naz, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2602136

Assessing the barriers to climate change adaptation: evidence from Western Himalayan Region of India, Fazal Choudhary et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2506754

Addressing APEC’s Climate Challenges: Complexity of Climate Change Adaptation and the Way Forward, Jeon et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-26-0023.1

Adaptation bricolage: centering community agency in climate adaptation agendas, Totin et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2558659

Climate change impacts on human health

Effect of climate-driven childhood sleep erosion on potential regional economic inequality, Chu et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01779-x

Between a rock and a hard place: exploring the lived experience of disability and climate injustice, Eriksen et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2592263

Climate change impacts on human culture

“Artificial Anthropocene”: Impact of artificial intelligence on climate and the Earth, Kumar, The Holocene 10.1177/09596836261422217

Other

Who cares about gender? A comparison of parties’ commitment to gender equality in the UN climate regime, Dominguez Britos & Stevenson, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2616987

Unraveling Sundarbans’ erosion: how machine learning maps climate change impacts, Biswas & Maiti, npj Climate Action Open Access 10.1038/s44168-026-00336-8

Connecting on climate: Perceived similarity to a climate victim increases the likelihood of donation, Miniard & Attari, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102996

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Plan to break up iconic U.S. climate lab moves ahead, Voosen, Science 10.1126/science.aeh1090

Moving beyond a climate politics of justice with no peace, Thomas & Rhiney, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2444329

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Data Centers and California Electricity Policy, Little Hoover Commission

The authors assess how the state should address the significant energy demand from new data centers through updated rates, financing mechanisms, regulatory approaches, and related policy tools. California should strive to develop a stable regulatory framework for data centers that balances economic growth with clean, efficient, affordable, and reliable electricity provision. It should make certain that costs associated with new large-load development are fairly allocated and do not shift onto existing ratepayers. California should lead the nation on data-center energy regulation by grounding its policies in the best ideas from researchers, state agencies, utilities, developers, and other jurisdictions (state, federal, international). California should enable regulators to confidentially access essential facility-level electricity use data from large data centers, supported by structured data-sharing among agencies, to improve planning, assess localized impacts, and ensure fair cost responsibility while protecting sensitive business information.

Review of NERC’s 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, Brooks et al., GridStrategies

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)’s latest Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA), released in January 2026, showed intensifying resource reliability risks in regions across the U.S. over the next decade. While the LTRA raises some important concerns about reliability in this new era of surging demand growth, the authors' analysis demonstrates that the severity of the risk may be less than assessed. With this analysis, the authors provide a more comprehensive picture of adequacy risks that account for likely-to-connect generation, the value of both firm and non-firm interregional transmission, and limitations in load forecasting that can overestimate large loads. Although this re-assessment demonstrates a reduced reliability risk given different—and more comprehensive—underlying assumptions, the fact remains that delays to interconnecting new generation and a lack of investment in interregional transmission are two of the foremost factors creating reliability risk. With a clearer vision of the future and rapid action, the grid could be even more reliable in five years than it is today.

Diesel Generators at Data Centers. Status, Impacts, and Protective Practices, Catherine Casomar and John Bangsund, Better Data Center Project

Diesel generators are by far the most common type of backup power for data centers, with more than 50 GW already permitted in the US. With increasing use for non-emergency applications, including demand response, public health and environmental impacts will grow. This report was prepared in response to questions from communities, state and local governments, and Tribes about the impacts of diesel generators and ways to limit harm. We summarize the current status of diesel use for data centers in the US—including a case study quantifying trends in Virginia—examine impacts, and propose practices to reduce harm.

Energy Storage Signals Shift to Renewable Grids, Ye Huang, Global Energy Monitor

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) data from the 2026 release of the Global Wind and Solar Power trackers show that the combined global installed capacity of wind and solar has reached 3,222 gigawatts alternating current (GWac). Wind and solar accounted for more than 70% of all new electricity capacity growth globally in the past five years, underscoring the central role of these power sources in system growth worldwide. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) account for the majority of new storage additions because of their strong integration with wind and solar power, as well as technological improvements. From 2010 to 2024, battery storage costs declined by 93%, which has enabled the rapid scaling of BESS deployment. In response to the uptake of energy storage, GEM has begun tracking the presence of storage associated with wind and solar power plants when data are readily available. At present, GEM is tracking 2,144 utility-scale solar farms and 822 wind farms globally with associated storage systems. China, Greece, and Australia are planning the most storage projects associated with wind and solar farms. China dominates the refinement and processing of battery raw materials, making it the primary hub of the global battery supply chain.

Supplementary analysis of the Seventh Carbon Budget, Pinchbeck et al., Climate Change Committee

For every pound spent on Net Zero, the benefits outweigh this by 2.2 to 4.1 times. Avoiding climate damages is the most significant benefit of the transition. This saving is estimated between £40 billion and £130 billion in 2050. Energy losses are halved compared to today. Losses in a Net Zero system are valued at £30 billion per year, compared to £60 billion a year in today’s energy system. The transition is set to deliver far greater health and wellbeing co-benefits than costs. Cleaner air, warmer homes, more active travel and healthier diets strongly outweigh downsides like extra public transport time or potential congestion from increased EV use.

Winning the AI Race: Tapping into Pumped Storage Hydropower, National Hydropower Association

If the United States intends to win the race to power artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, it must first win the race to build reliable power. The central question is no longer whether the grid can produce enough electricity, but whether it can do so reliably, at the right locations, and on timelines that align with private investment. The authors highlight how the 60,000+ megawatts of proposed new pumped storage hydropower can help achieve American AI dominance. Eighty projects are currently pending in the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission licensing pipeline, 85% of which are located in the West where the power is needed most. Policies that unlock this proven yet often-overlooked technology are necessary to ensure that the nation has the 24/7 reliable power to win the AI race.

U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters in 2025, Adam Smith, Climate Central

Research by Climate Central shows that during 2025, there were 23 individual weather and climate disasters with at least $1 billion in damages. This was the third-highest count of billion-dollar disasters (inflation-adjusted to 2025 dollars) since 1980, trailing only 2023 and 2024, with 28 and 27 events, respectively. The total, direct cost of these 23 events in 2025 was approximately $115.0 billion, with 276 direct and indirect fatalities. The author summarizes the costliest events of 2025 and puts them in the context of historical trends in billion-dollar disasters since 1980. He also explore the influence of our growing exposure, vulnerability, and climate change on the increasing trend of these expensive and deadly disasters.

New threats and new tools: reinventing energy security for an era of instability, Daisy Powell-Chandler and Margaret Ryan, RenewableUK

The authors examine how the changing character of conflict is reshaping threats to the UK’s energy system, and what that implies for energy security as an element of national security. The authors draw on a literature review, expert interviews and a tabletop wargame run with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) to stress-test UK resilience under three plausible winter-time energy crisis scenarios, before providing six recommendations for Government that will help us deploy the new tools we need to meet the threats of this age.

The Evolving Politics of Climate Change in China, Neil Thomas and Guoguang Wu, Asia Society Policy Institute

The authors investigate how clean-energy sectors have become a core pillar of China’s growth model, industrial policy and international engagement. The authors explain why mounting economic pressures, intensifying technological competition, and rising geopolitical tensions are reshaping Beijing’s priorities, and how climate diplomacy is becoming increasingly intertwined with trade and industrial strategy. The findings carry important implications for governments, businesses, and international institutions navigating the energy transition. Understanding China’s evolving approach is essential to assessing the future trajectory of global decarbonization and the risks and opportunities it presents.

Defragmenting European Union climate policy, Pahle et al., Bruegel

There is broad agreement that the European Union’s post-2030 climate policy architecture – the framework of rules to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – needs to be simpler and more flexible, with market actors less constrained in how they mitigate emissions. However, simplification should not compromise the EU’s climate goals and changing the architecture is politically contentious. Ringfencing of established climate compliance mechanisms and any delay in containing the emissions of lagging sectors could result in even more fragmentation in an already-fragmented climate-policy architecture. The cost of maintaining this fragmentation will rise, making the system even more inefficient. Higher costs and limited control over emissions in some sectors will undermine the EU’s ability to credibly signal commitment to its climate target, undermining the confidence of investors and international partners. To avoid these risks, simplicity and flexibility must mean the application of a carbon price across all parts of the EU climate architecture, with prices converging gradually. This can be achieved by linking the different systems through exchange rates that guide convergence towards a common carbon price, with the EU emissions trading system as the central hub.

Gulf Energy Transition Through Renewable Energy Development, Salem Alhajraf, Rice University's Baker Institute

The author evaluates the progress of renewable energy development in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which currently have more than 100 projects at various stages of development. The author examines the economic, financial, technical, and regulatory challenges that the sector faces and assesses their impact on overall energy transition strategies. The author focuses specifically on the Saudi Arabian market, which aims to achieve 50% renewable energy by 2030. The author highlights the number and scale of projects underway, including 52 projects in solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind technologies. Additionally, the author provides an in-depth examination of 30 solar PV projects already awarded in Saudi Arabia, discussing key project factors, including project size, capital costs, and the levelized cost of electricity.

State Energy Storage Policy Trends for 2026, Mark Lazaroff and Maggie Curran, Morgan Lewis

State procurement mandates remain the most powerful driver of large-scale storage deployment. Integrated resource planning reforms are increasingly incorporating storage as a core resource. Demonstration programs and incentive structures continue to expand market access. Distributed energy resource aggregation and virtual power plant initiatives are accelerating.

State of the Market Report for PJM. Volume 2: Detailed Analysis, Monitoring Analytics

The PJM markets work, even if not perfectly. The results of PJM markets were reliable in 2025. The results of the energy market were competitive in 2025. The results of the 2025/2026, 2026/2027, and 2027/2028 capacity markets were not competitive. The PJM markets bring customers the benefits of competition when the market rules allow competition to work and prevent the exercise of market power. There are clear warning signs for the capacity market and for PJM reliability. The capacity market was short of meeting its reliability objective in the most recent capacity auctions. Data center load growth is the primary reason for recent and expected capacity market conditions, including total forecast load growth, the tight supply and demand balance, and high prices.

Breakneck Speed: Summer of Climate Whiplash, Climate Council of Australia Limited

This summer Australia’s climate flipped between extremes at accelerating speed - a phenomenon scientists call climate whiplash. Climate pollution is now overpowering natural climate cycles like El Niño and La Niña. Record ocean heat is intensifying rainfall, floods and tropical cyclones with compounding damage across regions. Australians are paying a high price for failure to reign in climate pollution as disasters become more frequent, damaging and expensive. Australia must deeply cut climate pollution, and prepare every Australian for worsening disasters.

Offshore Renewable Energy Development on the U.S. West Coast: Understanding Effects on Shipping, Fisheries, and Maritime Activities, National Academies

Floating offshore wind technology is nearing commercial-scale deployment along the U.S. west coast. At the same time, these waters support commercial, tribal, and recreational fisheries; domestic and international shipping; port operations; and U.S. Coast Guard missions. The authors find that the region’s early stage of development presents an opportunity to proactively address interactions among ocean uses through coordinated planning, engagement, and risk mitigation.

Toxic Accounts. From Greenwashing to Gaslighting, Nayantara Dutta, Clean Creatives

In a first-of-its-kind research project, the author has decoded the narrative shifts in fossil fuel campaigns between 2020 and 2024, detailing how narrative strategy in oil and gas companies' advertising and public relations campaigns has shifted. The evidence documents how, between 2020 and 2024, oil and gas campaigns shifted from setting climate targets and saying “we’re part of the solution” to emphasizing fossil fuel dependence and convincing people “you can’t live without us.” In parallel, the author saw shareholders follow suit and move from supporting climate action to prioritizing fossil fuel profitability. Oil majors have always been preoccupied with social license, but now, the fossil fuel industry is radicalizing. Companies like BP and Shell, which have a history of greenwashing and made net zero pledges in 2020. Now they are going all in on fossil fuels. They are advertising false solutions like carbon capture and storage, natural gas and biofuels, which increase fossil fuel dependence.

Minnesota climate adaptation and resilience cost study, Industrial Economics, University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership, Consensus Building Institute, and Two Degrees Adapt, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency

The authors show that climate change is expensive for Minnesotans. They find that without additional adaptation efforts, Minnesota can expect to see more than $20 billion worth of climate change impacts per year under a high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario. By the end of the century, if global GHG emissions continue to rise and no adaptation actions in Minnesota are taken, estimated annual costs of climate change are more than $50 billion. These impacts cross economic sectors and affect the day-to-day lives of Minnesotans. For example, climate change makes air quality worse, leading to more asthma attacks and more early deaths. Larger rain events driven by climate change – mean more buildings and infrastructure will be affected by overland flooding.

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The war in Iran shows us another cost of our fossil-fuel economy

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 14:58:50 EST

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

When people debate the cost of fossil fuels versus renewables, the conversation almost always centers on the price at the pump or the cost per kilowatt-hour on your electricity bill. That’s understandable — those are the costs you can see. But they’re not the whole story.

The rest of the story are subsidies. In most discussions, it’s laser-focused on subsidies for renewable energy, not fossil fuels. But fossil fuels get enormous subsidies. Those are deeply hidden, though, spread across government budgets, healthcare systems, and military spending in ways most people can’t connect back to their energy choices.

To the extent that they do get attention, most of it goes to the implicit subsidy for fossil fuels from climate change and air pollution, which economists have valued at trillions of dollars per year.

But there’s another hidden subsidy that few talk about: national security. And right now, as oil prices surge in response to U.S. strikes on Iran, that cost is impossible to ignore.

the subsidy nobody talks about

The United States spends more than $81 billion every single year just to protect the global supply of oil.

That figure comes from Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), a nonpartisan national security organization led by retired senior military officers. They calculated that about one fifth of the entire Department of Defense base budget exists, at least in part, to keep oil flowing through vulnerable choke points like the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, shipping lanes in the South China Sea.

That’s $81 billion — every year — and it doesn’t appear on your gas station receipt. It’s a subsidy, paid by taxpayers, that makes oil look far cheaper than it actually is. Spread across U.S. oil consumption, it works out to roughly $11 per barrel, or about 28 cents per gallon, hidden in the defense budget. For a typical fill up, that subsidy amounts to $5 per tank.

This subsidy is just to be ready to fight. Then there are the actual wars we’ve fought over the oil supply. For example, the 2003 Iraq War’s cost was estimated to be $3 trillion — nearly $10,000 per American.

When you add it all up, fossil fuels are not cheap. They’ve never been cheap. We’ve just been brilliant at hiding the costs — in the defense budget, in emergency rooms, in FEMA disaster relief, etc.

fossil fuels are our pimp

But despite spending trillions protecting global oil routes, we remain economically vulnerable to disruption in oil supplies.

Why? Because oil is a globally priced commodity: everyone pays the same price. When something disrupts supply anywhere in the world, prices go up everywhere — including in the U.S.

This occurs despite the United States being the largest oil producer in the world.

We saw this play out in real time just last week. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, oil prices surged. Gas prices are following. And this was before the conflict escalated to directly threaten the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum flows every day.

real energy security

Fossil fuel pushers don’t want you to understand this. And they particularly don’t want you to recognize that the price of solar energy and wind energy is not affected by events in the Middle East. A missile strike on Iranian oil infrastructure has zero effect on the cost of generating electricity from a solar panel in Texas or a wind turbine in Iowa. The “fuel” — sunlight and wind — is free, domestic, and geopolitically inert.

This is one of the key reasons China is pushing electric vehicles with government industrial policy so strongly. They import most of their oil and this has created an enormous geopolitical risk. Electric vehicles, charged by rapidly growing solar energy, is an important way China is addressing the national security problems of fossil fuels.

In many parts of the country and world, solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new electricity generation — full stop. Not because of subsidies (though those exist but are likely smaller than those for fossil fuels), but because the underlying economics have shifted irreversibly.

Renewable energy is the only credible path to energy and economic security. “Drill, baby, drill” is a fantasy — and an expensive one. More drilling means more pain, not more security.

“the moral case for fossil fuels”

time to move on

It’s worth pausing to appreciate what fossil fuels made possible. They powered our civilization for the last 200 years. But the transition to renewable energy isn’t a rejection of that legacy — it’s the next chapter. And it’s a better one.

Climate Adam - The Epstein Files & Climate Denial

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 10:46:57 EST

This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator and climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).

Video description

Jeffrey Epstein was a climate change denier. The Epstein Files have uncovered a number of revelations about how power operates across the globe. And this includes the discussion of climate change - and climate denial - within these exchanges between Jeffrey Epstein and the people he associated with – from scientists to Donald Trump. So what did Jeffrey Epstein have to say when it came to climate change? And what do these files reveal about the links between climate denial and power?

Support ClimateAdam on patreon: https://patreon.com/climateadam

2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11

Sun, 15 Mar 2026 10:10:06 EST

A listing of 27 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 8, 2026 thru Sat, March 14, 2026.

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)

Dangerous droughts triggered by heatwaves are accelerating at an alarming rate, study shows Heatwaves, drought, wildfire risk and El Niño are compounding to create a dangerous cocktail of climate change. AP/Euronewsdotcom, Seth Borenstein, Mar 9, 2023.
For frigid East it may be hard to fathom, but the US had its second-warmest winter on record AP News, Seth Borenstein, Mar 9, 2026.
A Warmer Climate Means Bigger Hail "New attribution research shows how extra heat in the atmosphere can turn thunderstorms into factories for dangerous, softball-size hail."A Warmer Climate Means Bigger Hail Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Mar 9, 2026.
Parts of Antarctica's ice sheets are retreating much faster than anticipated Earthdotcom, Rodielon Putol, Mar 9, 2026.
Where Climate Change Is Making Extreme Heat Unbearable "The weather is becoming deadly in a growing number of locations around the world." Bloomber News, Todd Woody & Aaron Clark, Mar 11, 2026.
How global warming has been getting worse since 2015 New study reveals that the world has warmed faster in the last decade than in any previous decade since records began Geographical, Coby Schlosberg, Mar 12, 2026.
Review sheds light on how global warming is destabilising the Himalayas Mongabay, Simrin Sirur, Mar 13, 2026.
Austrian glaciers disintegrating due to climate change, say scientists BBC news, Bethany Bell, Mar 13, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)

Is your data center getting a big discount on electricity? That’s redacted. A look at secret agreements in Montana. "A look at secret agreements in Montana." Yale Climate Connections, Karen Kirk, Mar 3, 2026.
Trump has launched an unprecedented assault on the environment. Where’s the pushback? "Climate deniers expected more resistance to the fossil fuel blitz. But Democrats, billionaires and activists have gone silent" The Guardian, Rei Takver, Mar 4, 2026.
Nature Report, Killed by Trump, Is Released Independently The New York Times, Catrin Einhorn, Mar 5, 2026.
Is the FBI Investigating Environmental Activists? "A recent visit by an FBI agent to a climate activist hints at a broadening Trump administration effort to target political opponents."Is the FBI Investigating Environmental Activists? Inside Climate News, Nicholas Kusnetz, Mar 8, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

As Iran war shakes energy system, some see powerful argument for renewable energy AP News, Seth Borenstein & Jennifer McDermott, Mar 9, 2026.
Brussels backs mini-nuclear power plants to secure low-carbon power "The EU is counting on small nuclear reactors to help meet climate targets and stabilise power supply, but some countries and environmental groups warn the technology is costly and unproven." Euronewsdotcom, Matt Pacheco, Mar 10, 2026.
How Trump’s Iran War Could Actually Worsen Climate Change "Oh, you thought high oil prices would help the climate fight? Think again." Bulwark, Catherine Rampell, Mar 12, 2026.

Miscellaneous (3 articles)

2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #10 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 1, 2026 thru Sat, March 7, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, John Hartz & Doug Bostrom, Mar 08, 2026.
Q&A: What does the Iran war mean for the energy transition and climate action? "The US and Israel’s war on Iran has caused oil and gas prices to soar, with the world now preparing for the possibility of another energy crisis. " Carbon Brief, Multiple Authors, Mar 10, 2026.
Do Middle?earth and Westeros make sense? Climate scientists modelled them to find out The Conversation, John Cook, Alex Farnsworth, Dan Lunt & Dann Mitchell, Mar 11, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

The planet is overheating. Why is the news looking away? "Since 2021, global media coverage of climate change has dropped 38 percent. Blame wars, political chaos, and Jeffrey Epstein." Grist, Kate Yoder, Mar 11, 2026.
Bringing Climate Research to New York City`s Classrooms State of the Planet, Dannie Dinh and Laurel Zaima-Sheehy, Mar 13, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (2 articles)

‘Sound Science’ Bills Limiting State Environmental Regulations Set ‘Insurmountable Burden of Proof,’ Scientists Say "Bills in four states require state environmental regulations to show 'direct causal link' to 'manifest bodily harm,' not just increased risk of disease. Scientists say that’s all but impossible." Inside Climate News, Dennis Pillion, Mar 7, 2026.
How Trump`s EPA rollbacks give US states new tools in climate suits Vermont and New York face high stakes to protect climate superfund laws as it faces attacks from Trump’s DoJ The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Mar 08, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (2 articles)

Scientists are trying to solve the mystery of whether global warming is speeding up. A new study says it has the answer CNN, Laura Paddison, Mar 6, 2026.
El Niño could be here soon, bringing wild weather and a hotter climate CNN, Andrew Freedman, Mar 10, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (2 articles)

Top 5 Climate Change Myths with Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf Planet Boundaries Science Lab, Bruce Phillips, Mar 6, 2026.
The strange and persistent psychological distance between us and climate disaster "An analysis of dozens of previously published studies reveals people systematically underestimate their own vulnerability to climate threats." Anthropocene Magazine, Sarah DeWeerdt, Mar 10, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

Fact brief - Can shadow flicker from wind turbines trigger seizures in people with epilepsy? No - The flicker of a wind turbine shadow is far below the minimum frequency required to trigger photosensitive epilepsy. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Mar 10, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Do Middle-earth and Westeros make sense? Climate scientists modelled them to find out

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 10:33:51 EST

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Authors: John Cook, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, The University of Melbourne; Alex Farnsworth, Senior Research Associate in Meteorology, University of Bristol; Dan Lunt, Professor of Climate Science, University of Bristol, and Dann Mitchell, Professor of Climate Science, University of Bristol

When English author J.R.R. Tolkien crafted his fantasy world Middle-earth, he argued storytellers are essentially “sub-creators” – they build fictional realms with internally consistent laws.

For a world to be truly immersive and believable, readers apply what is known as the “principle of minimal departure”. This assumes anything not explicitly magical, such as a planet’s weather or gravity, must adhere to the laws of the real world.

In this spirit of rigorous worldbuilding, we just published a new study where we merged the disparate disciplines of literary worldbuilding and climate modelling.

We used complex computer programs – the same ones used to forecast Earth’s future warming scenarios – to simulate the climates of famous fantasy settings such as Tolkien’s Middle-earth, the continents of Westeros in the Game of Thrones, and the far-future Earth in The Wheel of Time series. We also built a model for a fictional world developed by one of us.

It’s a seemingly whimsical exercise, but it serves serious purposes.

For starters, it provides new details on fictional worlds beyond what the author shared, “filling the gaps” with science.

More importantly, it offers a new way for us to communicate the fundamental physics of climate science to a broad, general audience. And exploring climate model behaviour under fantastical settings helps our understanding of model physics.

Why the Misty Mountains are so misty

Tolkien, the author of The Lord of the Rings, was known for his extraordinary attention to detail. He meticulously calculated distances, times, and even phenomena such as the direction of the wind at every step along the characters’ journey.

Working from Tolkien’s own detailed maps, we fed Middle-earth’s topography (land height) and bathymetry (ocean depth) into an advanced climate model.

Since Tolkien intended Middle-earth to be our own Earth at a distant point in the past, we assumed its physical parameters – such as the planetary radius, rotation rate, and distance from the Sun – were identical to ours. We then simulated the world’s climate.

The results were a remarkable confirmation of Tolkien’s intuitive worldbuilding.

The model predicted a climate similar to Western Europe and North Africa – unsurprising, given Tolkien’s geographical inspiration.

The highest precipitation fell on and to the west of the Misty Mountains, with a drier “rain-shadow” effect to the east. This effect is caused by prevailing westerly winds forcing moist air to rise and cool over the mountains, condensing water vapour into rain or snow before it reaches the eastern side.

The model’s prediction of extensive forest cover across much of Middle-earth was consistent with Elrond’s claim that in the past, squirrels could travel from the Shire to Dunland without touching the ground.

A simulation of precipitation in Middle-earth, with fictional references to author and journal publication included for fun. Dan Lunt

Climate scientist Dan Lunt first released this climate simulation in a fictional paper in 2013, and it became an unexpected success in the classroom. Educators used the exotic setting of Middle-earth to explain complex concepts underpinning weather and climate. They were able to relate this to the physical laws that govern why climate changes in the real world.

The unstable seasons of Westeros

One of the defining features of George R.R. Martin’s Game of Thrones is the unpredictable and prolonged seasons of Westeros. This unique climatic feature is not just backstory. It’s a crucial plot device, allowing the White Walkers to move southward across an ice-covered world.

Astrophysicists and climatologists have long nerded out over the possible cause. Theories have ranged from binary star systems to volcanic activity, but all have struggled to create a viable, habitable world.

We focused on the idea of a chaotically-varying axial tilt. On Earth, the stable tilt of our axis is what gives us regular seasons. We used a real-world climate model where the planet’s axis “tumbled” throughout the year, like a wobbly spinning top.

The result was striking: if the planet tumbled exactly once per orbit, one hemisphere would constantly face the sun in a fixed season, creating a permanent summer or winter.

How axial tilt affects a planet’s seasons. If the tilt stays the same, the northern hemisphere changes from summer to winter. If the axial tilt shifts, winter can stay throughout the year.Cook et al. 2026, CC BY-NC-ND

But what causes the season to suddenly flip from a long summer to a long winter? The tilt of our planet’s axis is stabilised by the gravitational influence of its moon.

Martin’s world has only one moon, but legend says it once had two, until the second moon “wandered too close to the sun and it cracked from the heat”. The loss of a second moon may have caused the planet’s axis to become unstable, providing a plausible, physics-based explanation for the world’s greatest mysteries.

Building new worlds with climate science

The benefits of climate modelling are not limited to just filling gaps in classic stories.

Our models can also inform the worldbuilding of new fantasy realms. The work now published in our new paper started when climate communicator John Cook was developing an allegorical, speculative story exploring the denialist response to environmental damage.

He worked with climate scientists to simulate the climate of his fantasy world, Terrios. The subsequent model output provided concrete details such as temperature, precipitation, and wind conditions at every step along the characters’ journey through a variety of biomes.

This ensured the world was internally consistent and richly detailed, enhancing verisimilitude and creating a more immersive experience for the reader.

How simulated biomes from a climate model inform the design of a map of a new fantasy world. Cook et al. 2026

Ultimately, applying physics to fictional lands provides an engaging way to connect general audiences with complex environmental science.

By using climate models, scientists honour Tolkien’s demand that even the most fantastical worlds must maintain a credible, finely-tuned balance between the familiar laws of realism and the fantastic.

The enduring legacy of these simulated worlds proves that when science and art collide, the resulting discoveries can be just as compelling as the stories themselves.

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2026

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 15:38:16 EST

Open access notables

Weather Rescue at Sea: Recovering Historical Weather Observations From 19th Century British Naval Ships, Teleti et al., Geoscience Data Journal

Ship logbooks represent a critical source of historical meteorological data, providing valuable observations of barometric pressure, air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind force and direction, and other variables. Substantial quantities of these records are unavailable to climate science as they have not yet been transcribed. We present ‘Weather Rescue at Sea’, a citizen-science project which transcribed millions of weather observations contained in 19th Century UK Royal Navy ship logbooks. We describe the logbook structure and weather observation-taking instructions and discuss significant challenges with the translation of handwritten text into accurate data due to errors arising from ambiguous handwriting, historical terminology, and inconsistent metadata. We present the dataset and explore its spatio-temporal characteristics. The corrected and quality-assured datasets will enhance climate reanalyses and other historical reconstructions of the pre- and early industrial climate by providing more input meteorological data. Furthermore, we highlight emerging tools, such as AI-driven transcription correction, and outline remaining challenges in fully leveraging these historical records to advance climate science.

Climate-Driven Changes in Wildfire Seasonality Across North America, Fan et al., Geophysical Research Letters

Climate change alters the frequency and intensity of wildfires, but its impact on the seasonal patterns of wildfires remains underexplored. Here, we quantify historical changes in wildfire seasonality across different ecoregions in North America and assess how climate change may affect these seasonal patterns. Our study finds that boreal and taiga forests have experienced a clear advance in seasonal wildfire activity, whereas Mediterranean and desert regions show delayed and extended late-season burning. Prairie and humid forest regions exhibit comparatively muted change. Attribution analysis shows that atmospheric dryness is the dominant control, while antecedent temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture indirectly shape wildfire risk through vegetation and fuel continuity at different lag times. These findings provide a basis for interpreting future region-specific changes in wildfire seasonality and emphasize the need for region-specific assessments of future wildfire activity.

Rates of Sea-Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks, Martin et al., AGU Advances

Glacier flow plays a major role in current and future rates of globally averaged sea-level rise. The viscosity of glacial ice, controlling the rate of flow, decreases as stress increases and is highly sensitive to the value of the stress exponent, n, in the constitutive equation for viscous flow. Glaciologists and climate modelers almost exclusively assume n=3 when modeling ice flow and projecting sea-level rise through forward modeling. However, recent work suggests that n~4 better fits observations, prompting the question: How sensitive are projections of sea-level rise to the value of n? We use an established community ice flow model and standard benchmark experiments designed as an idealized representation of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. While initializing an n=3 model to match observations of an n=4 ice sheet is possible, we find that incorrectly assuming n=3 when in fact n=4 dramatically underestimates rates of sea-level rise. The scale of this error grows nonlinearly with the magnitude of the climate forcing, acting to increase projection uncertainties. Additionally, we find that models often account for this stress-dependent rheology mismatch during model initialization in a way that masks this rheological effect in the short term while leaving model outputs vulnerable to larger biases in longer-term projections. Initializations to observations of Pine Island Glacier display similar rheology-mismatch fingerprints to our idealized example.

Beyond denial: climate delay discourses and public opinion on government climate action in the United States, Kulin & Rhodes, Environmental Politics

Discourses of climate delay increasingly permeate debates on climate action, yet studies examining the prevalence of public beliefs aligning with climate delay discourses – and their potential consequences for attitudes toward government climate action – are currently lacking. Past research has identified twelve discourses that acknowledge the existence of climate change yet justify inaction or inadequate responses. We design 48 survey items to measure the prevalence of beliefs consistent with these discourses via a representative web-based survey in the United States (n = 1,580). We then analyze the statistical relationship between these beliefs and public demand for government climate action as well as support for climate policies. Our results show that while beliefs consistent with most climate delay discourses are widespread in the U.S. some are more closely related to policy preferences. Our findings may therefore guide targeted counter-narratives to more effectively increase public demand and support for urgent climate policymaking.

ClimarisQ: What can we learn from playing a game for climate education?, Faranda et al., Geoscience Communication

ClimarisQ is both a web and mobile game developed by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace to support climate change communication through interactive decision-making. This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of the game based on a post-play questionnaire completed by 77 users. Respondents rated ClimarisQ positively in terms of usability and scientific credibility. Self-reported outcomes indicate that the game supported reflection on the complexity, trade-offs, and uncertainty of climate-related decision-making, rather than the acquisition of factual knowledge, particularly among users with prior expertise. The respondent group was predominantly composed of educated and climate-aware adults, which limits generalization to other audiences. Beyond the questionnaire, the game has been tested in dozens of facilitated sessions with thousands of non-specialist participants, with consistently positive feedback. These results suggest that ClimarisQ can function as a complementary tool for climate education and outreach, especially when used in facilitated settings that encourage discussion and interpretation.

From this week's government/NGO section:

The Urgent Case Against Data Centers, Food and Water Watch

Data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) are driving higher energy bills, more climate chaos, dwindling water supplies, and much more. Based on the latest research, there are 10 ways data centers leech off communities and the planet for Big Tech’s profit including a single hyperscale data center can consume as much energy as 2 million U.S. households; the thirst for fuel is being met by keeping old coal-fired power plants running and by building new natural gas ones; increased energy demand can raise residential rates, which soared 31 percent from 2020 to 2025 (compared to 4 percent from 2015 to 2020); and by 2028, AI data centers could use as much water as 18.5 million households, just for cooling their servers.

Bubble or Nothing, Advait Arun, Center for Public Enterprise

Should economic conditions in the tech sector sour, the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) boom may evaporate—and, with it, the economic activity associated with the boom in data center development. Data centers are an asset with the characteristics of both real estate and infrastructure: Data centers have tenants, chiefly large tech companies, that are undertaking expensive long-term capital investment plays with fast-depreciating assets and minimal cash flow to show for them. A careful review of these characteristics suggest that the sector faces the following salient risks including data center tenants will undertake multiple cycles of intense and increasingly expensive capital expenditure within a single lease term, posing considerable tenant churn risks to data center developers. This asset-liability mismatch between data center developers and their tenants will strain developers’ creditworthiness without guarantees from market-leading tech companies. Circular financing, or “roundabouting,” among so-called hyperscaler tenants—the leading tech companies and AI service providers—create an interlocking liability structure across the sector. These tenants comprise an incredibly large share of the market and are financing each others’ expansion, creating concentration risks for lenders and shareholders.

149 articles in 59 journals by 940 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Divergent Mechanisms Drive Multi-Decadal Drought Intensification in South America: A Trend Turning Analysis From 1958 to 2023, Lou et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70242

Quantifying the role of large-scale circulation in North China heatwaves under global warming, Sun et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108907

Spring–Summer Barents Sea Ice Loss Intensifies the Synchronicity of Recent Extreme Heatwaves in Europe and East Asia, Jiang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044630

The Impact of Arctic Amplification on Midlatitude Winter Weather: Assessing the Stratospheric Pathway in a Warming Climate, Kappenberger et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0224.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic Warming and Ocean Variability Exacerbated Spring 2024 Compound Floods in Central Asia, Yao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045602

Climate-Driven Changes in Wildfire Seasonality Across North America, Fan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121153

Detectable Anthropogenic Influences on Icing Days and Their Intensity Over China During 1961–2020 and Associated Observationally Constrained Projection, Wang & Jiang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045591

Evaluating Historical Outdoor Thermal Discomfort in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, Karam et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70313

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Earth System Predictability across Time Scales for a Resilient Society: A Research Community Perspective, Richter et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0155.1

Hidden Markov Quantile Models With Trends for Analysing Air Temperature Data, Tsiotas et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70308

Ocean Observing System Design: Transatlantic Acoustic Propagation for Acoustic Thermometry, Dushaw et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 10.1175/jtech-d-24-0124.1

The Arctic Boreal Burned Area (ABBA) Product, Chen et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.70060

The Global Framework for Climate Services: An ‘imaginary’ of climate services shaping practice, Venning & Bremer, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104351

Weather Rescue at Sea: Recovering Historical Weather Observations From 19th Century British Naval Ships, Teleti et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.70056

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

High-resolution regional climate modeling over Myanmar using WRF: Historical validation and future projections under different shared socioeconomic pathways, Messmer et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000820

Projected 21st Century Changes in Precipitation and Temperature Over Italy Using CMIP6 CMCC-CM2-SR5 Model and COSMO-CLM Dynamical Downscaling, Vichot?Llano et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70311

Projected Changes in Asymmetric Responses of Primary Productivity to Precipitation Using CMIP6 Earth System Models, Ji et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70326

Projected Changes to Tropical Cyclones in the Southwest Indian Ocean Using High-Resolution Global Climate Models, Green et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007484

Projected climate change in Fennoscandia – and its relation to ensemble spread and global trends, Strandberg et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-185-2026

Projected Future Changes of Ningaloo Niño under Global Warming, Wu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0553.1

Projected Global Diversity of Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120526

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A new index used to characterise the extent of Antarctic marine coastal winds in climate projections, Cable et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-247-2026

Constructing extreme heatwave storylines with differentiable climate models, Whittaker & Di Luca, Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-393-2026

Interconnection of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions and Cloud Feedback Through Warm Rain Process, Feng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044854

Origin and Limits of Invariant Warming Patterns in Climate Models, Giani et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0683.1

Persistent Antarctic Sea Ice Biases in CMIP6 Models in spite of the Recent Decadelong Sharp Decline, Roach & Polvani, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0477.1

Cryosphere & climate change

Episodic Northward Transport Along Nares Strait Brings Anomalously Warm Water Into the Arctic Ocean, Garcia?Quintana et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023672

Modeling the 21st-century response of Greenland's Zachariæ Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glaciers to atmosphere–ocean forcing and friction laws, Dong et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.006

North American ice sheet persistence into past interglacials should inform future projections, Creel et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-70032-y

Persistent Antarctic Sea Ice Biases in CMIP6 Models in spite of the Recent Decadelong Sharp Decline, Roach & Polvani, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0477.1

Rates of Sea-Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks, Martin et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001946

Thirty years of glacier grounding line retreat in Antarctica, Rignot et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2524380123

Sea level & climate change

Rates of Sea-Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks, Martin et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001946

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Beyond heat: sediment and wave energy influence bleaching and demography in the coral Acropora cervicornis, Cunio & Mercado-Molina, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2026.1665257

Biodiversity Insurance of Forest Productivity Has Strengthened Under Recent Climate Change, Bertrand & Morin, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70760

Climate and Land Cover Change Transform Functional Identity and Reduce Functional Diversity in European Grasslands, Liu et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.70217

Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century, Grünig et al., Science 10.1126/science.adx6329

Climate warming advances flowering and fruiting but drives divergent changes in reproductive season length, Ji et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03374-6

Does Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Facilitate Plant Invasions?, Cadotte et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70757

Ecological forecasts highlight opposing effects of long-term climate change on population demography, Ventura et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.70330

Future climate will not save high-elevation white pines, Malone et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03301-9

Geodiversity is an inseparable but underutilized aspect of ecological connectivity assessments under climate change, Määttänen et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.07768

Global Marine Fishery Stock Productivity Under Climate Change, Ma et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70784

Lichens as Biomonitors of Air Quality and Climate, Colesie & Newsham, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70768

Molecular Responses to Climate Change: How Warming and Acidification Reshape the Proteome and Phosphoproteome of the Endangered Mira Chub, Moreno et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72933

Phenological shifts and increases in voltinism within a moth community over a century of anthropogenic change, Foster et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70328

Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Invasive Plant Alternanthera pungens Kunth Under Climate Change Scenarios in China, Zheng et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73124

Regional risk shifts to monarch butterfly migration due to climate change, Sánchez-Cordero et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000802

Scenarios and strategies for future-proofing ecosystem management under climatic novelty, Toth et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70250

Signals From the Southern Edge: Demographic Effects of Ocean Warming on Two Cold-Adapted Seabird Species in the Gulf of Maine, Durham et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70769

Synthesizing Ecological Impacts and Management Responses from the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Wave to Prepare for Future Extreme Heat Events, Colberg et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0331.1

The Future of Forest Microclimate in Southeast Asia, Ghizoni Santos et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120734

Vulnerability of Key Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches to Future Erosion and Sea Level Rise, Christiaanse et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007191

When Climate Anomalies Starve Forests: The 2025 Bear Crisis in Japan, Xiao et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70781

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Enhanced carbon burial in seagrass meadows under ocean acidification revealed by carbon dioxide vents, Kindeberg et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03349-7

GHG accounting needs two metrics: stabilisation temperature and damage, Touborg & Ball, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2026.2634259

Glacial Meltwater Promotes Biological Productivity and Subsequent Dissolved Organic Carbon Accumulation in the Eastern Ross Sea: Evidence From the Austral Summer of 2023, Son et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008770

Global Eddy Subduction Carbon Pump From Argo Floats, Keutgen De Greef et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008912

Increased methane emissions from boreal peatlands following linear disturbances, Korsah et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03273-w

Productivity gains fail to offset CUE decline in boreal region: Latent threats to carbon sinks under extreme climate events, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105400

Significant Influence of Lateral Carbon Fluxes on Regional U.S. Carbon Budgets, Byrne et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb009020

Substrate Addition Alters Carbon Dioxide and Methane Exchange in Incubation Experiments of Canadian Peatland Soils, Davies et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008896

The Dual Role of NPP in Mediating and Moderating Climate-Soil Carbon Pathways Under Warming and Drought Across European Ecosystems, Lu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70766

The impact of reduced precipitation on methane emissions in the Amazon and its role in the global methane balance, Neves et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.121860

Vulnerability of Key Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches to Future Erosion and Sea Level Rise, Christiaanse et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007191

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Feldspar alteration by disequilibrium CO₂-H₂O fluids in reservoir sandstones: implications for CCS, Farrell et al., Solid Earth Open Access 10.5194/se-17-407-2026

Multi-system analysis of offshore geologic carbon storage: a review of open-source data science solutions, Mark-Moser et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2025.1457489

Theoretical and Actual Carbon Sequestration Potential in China's Terrestrial Ecosystems, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70779

Decarbonization

Enhancing solar PV efficiency in mining operations through optimized cleaning intervals and automated dust mitigation, Tripathi et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-42709-3

Leveraging Carbon Quantum Dots to Achieve UN Sustainable Development Goals in the Face of Climate Change, Sah et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70034

Limited scientific evidence for decarbonization of energy end-uses and the challenges to learning and empowerment of green hydrogen niches - insights from Canada, Aguilar et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114763

Rapid solar energy development in deserts: A missing element in desertification control and achieving Sustainable Development Goals, Yang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2601509123

Technological improvements in EV batteries offset climate-induced durability challenges, Wu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02579-z

Geoengineering climate

Effects of Warming and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Tropical Cyclone Distribution and Frequency: Results From a High-Resolution Global Circulation Model, Feder et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045028

Aerosols

Declining anthropogenic aerosols amplify Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation weakening in the 21st century, Kim et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69990-0

Climate change communications & cognition

Beyond denial: climate delay discourses and public opinion on government climate action in the United States, Kulin & Rhodes, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2026.2633831

China’s rural-urban climate education divide: addressing environmental justice in climate literacy, Ampofo et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100799

ClimarisQ: What can we learn from playing a game for climate education?, Faranda et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-9-115-2026

Climate news mediates extreme weather effects on climate change concern, Peisker et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100806

Distress and Denial: Dutch Youth aged 16-35 Grappling with Climate Change, Reitsema et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102969

Group Processes and Climate Change: Rejecting Intergroup Calls for Climate Action, Thürmer et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102992

Modeling the Predictors of Extreme Weather Affective Experience and Its Influence on Extreme Weather Decision-Making, Ernst et al., Weather, Climate, and Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0086.1

Whose house is on fire; when will we fail? Psychological distance of climate change inconsistently responds to social and temporal proximization, Seger et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102989

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change and thermal stress in cattle: Global projections with high temporal resolution, Neira et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000761

Climate change perspectives of coffee farmers in Junín Mountain tropical forests and CMIP5 projections, Ibáñez-Blancas et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1770361

Climate-driven divergence in biophysical and economic impacts of agrivoltaics, Jia et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2514380123

Drained Agricultural Peatlands as Persistent Carbon Sources: Implications for Carbon and Water Use Intensity in Food Production, D'Acunha et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70796

Evaluation of Climate Risk Assessment in Subnational Climate Action Plans for the Agriculture Sector in India, Choubey et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0033.1

Keeping pace with change: An evaluation of the Maine-New Hampshire bottom trawl survey in a warming Gulf of Maine, Chang et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000843

Livestock Integration Into Cropping Systems Enhances Their Climate Change Resistance and Mitigation While Reducing Their Environmental Impacts, Delandmeter et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70765

The effects of self-governance arrangements on the climate change resilience of small-scale fisheries in Mexico, Elías Ilosvay et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103132

Trade-Offs Between Carbon and Water Fluxes Along a Land Use Intensity Gradient in Southeast Asian Forests and Plantations, Hanggara et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70753

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

African inland wetland area on the rise during the 21st century, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-70480-6

Anthropogenic Warming and Ocean Variability Exacerbated Spring 2024 Compound Floods in Central Asia, Yao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045602

Climate change enhances the propagation from meteorological to lake drought, Fu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100887

Divergent Mechanisms Drive Multi-Decadal Drought Intensification in South America: A Trend Turning Analysis From 1958 to 2023, Lou et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70242

Anthropogenic Warming and Ocean Variability Exacerbated Spring 2024 Compound Floods in Central Asia, Yao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045602

Climate-Driven Changes in Wildfire Seasonality Across North America, Fan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121153

Evaluating Historical Outdoor Thermal Discomfort in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, Karam et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70313

Enhancement of Global Flood Risk Due To Greater Flood Magnitude and Variability Under Anthropogenic Activities, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044105

How Do Precipitation Changes Affect Compound Dry and Hot Events Amidst Global Warming?, Zhao & Xiong, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70324

Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins, Wimberly et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025

Local and Remote Moisture Sources Both Increase Late Twenty-First Century Arctic Precipitation, Leister et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0359.1

Projecting Multiscale River Flood Changes Across Japan at +2°C and +4°C Climates, Chen et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024ef005884

Quantification of the Impact of Uncertainties in Flood Risk Projections Across the Delaware River Basin, Michalek et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006306

Recent and future variability in 1-day precipitation extremes in Trentino – South Tyrol (Eastern Italian Alps) based on observations (1956-2023) and climate model projections, Maines et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100880

Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity, Klotzbach et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120183

Spatiotemporal Droughts Propagation and Direct Driving Variables Under Climate Change Projections: A Case Study of Tunisia, Sellami, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70323

The key role of Mediterranean and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on the 2024 record-breaking Valencia precipitation event, Saurral et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100877

Climate change economics

Are the public ready to bear the costs of phasing out coal-fired power plants? An economic feasibility analysis, Huh et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115177

Global economic exposure to climate change amplified by spatially compounding climate extremes, Biess et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-70127-6

International ETS and Physical Climate Risks, Chen et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70212

The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism: Does it impact the competitiveness of China's export trade?, Wang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115161

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Additional value of multi-city pilot projects in achieving climate neutrality – Lessons from the EU cities mission, Maliszewska-Nienartowicz & Modrzy?ska, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104586

Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures, Pachauri et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000763

Climate change obstruction in Africa: the case of African Petroleum Producers Organization (APPO), Oguntuase, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2636746

Democratizing climate change mitigation pathways using modernized stabilization wedges, Johnson & Staffell, Science Open Access 10.1126/science.adr2118

Local ordinances and large-scale solar development in the United States, Lee et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115088

Measuring climate action beyond commitments: a nationally determined contributions implementation index for Africa, Ozor et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1746338

Open science practices for better NDCs: Supporting transparent and accountable climate mitigation action, Beltramo et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000839

Policy goal communication increases support for ambitious renewable energy policies, Brückmann & Stadelmann-Steffen, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000823

The effect of land costs on the economic and sustainability performance of solar photovoltaics in China, Chen et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2512930123

The sustainability trilemma of land scarcity: Quantifying the societal cost of Taiwan's energy transition, Zhao et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115223

Updated Spatial Population Projections for the EU and the UK Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Provide New Insights for Climate Impact Assessments, Bonatz et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006504

Were subsidy phase-outs premature for offshore wind power in China?, Lin & Xu, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101967

Who Has a Voice in the Energy Transition in the U.S. States? A Fifty-State Study of Local News, Wetts et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2616474

‘Decision-support’ tools for the assessment of co-benefits: Insights from energy and climate policy in the United Kingdom, Lait & Foxon, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115174

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A Bias-Robust Framework for Quantifying Community Responses to the Climate Change Using the Occurrence Data, Seki et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.70223

AI for Sustainable Urban Systems Plus (AISUS+): A Global Initiative to Enhance Climate and Environmental Resilience in Cities, Ouyang et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-26-0018.1

Assessing local governments’ preparedness and willingness to welcome climate and disaster-displaced populations, Enriquez, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1758587

Editorial: Rethinking climate governance: integrating monitoring and evaluation for effective adaptation, Käyhkö & Sharifi, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1810675

Further endeavours are needed to promote nature-based solutions for wildfire management under climate warming, Yu et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2637798

Hot Topics: Building Capacity for Extreme Heat Adaptation through Transdisciplinary Training, Vanos et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0341.1

Insights From Managed Retreat Projects in Europe, Wolff et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007012

Integrating Climate Change Into Social Protection Approaches: Developing a Policy Framework for Jordan, Jaskolski et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70037

Microcredit as an adaptation strategy to climate change in coastal Bangladesh based on the theory of planned behavior, Mahedi et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-02930-6

Navigating heatwaves in a temperate climate: barriers to behavioural adaptation in Dutch urban areas, Ahmed et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100794

Opportunity windows accelerate action and expand options for climate adaptation in Europe, Di Fant et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03332-2

Reassessing boreal wildfire drivers enables high-resolution mapping of emissions for climate adaptation, Eckdahl et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adw5226

Study on the impact of climate physical risks on urban sustainability and resilience, Wang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1751795

Support for Climate Change Adaptation over Climate Change Mitigation in the United States Depends on Political Party Identification and How Adaptation Is Framed, Bayes et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102987

The literature landscape on cities and climate change, Lamb et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2018.02.008

Uneven readiness: measuring climate risk and societal preparedness across OECD and key partner countries (2002–2022), Biresselioglu et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1747669

Visual-thermal interaction effects on perceived restoration in dynamic park routes: a time-series perspective on outdoor climate adaptation in hot climates, Dong et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102931

Who Talks About Flood Risks and Climate Change Adaptation? Analysis of Social Interactions in Three Countries, Wagenblast et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70213

Climate change impacts on human health

Community perceptions on climate change and its impacts on malaria transmission in South-eastern Tanzania, Nshatsi et al., Malaria Journal Open Access 10.1186/s12936-026-05835-x

Evaluating Historical Outdoor Thermal Discomfort in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, Karam et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70313

Projecting and valuing climate change impacts on anxiety and depression in the contiguous USA: a damage function approach, Belova et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101426

What competencies physical activity professionals should possess to better integrate climate change related issues into their practice: A Delphi study, Hozhabri et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000812

[Review] Interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from health-system solid waste: a systematic review, McGushin et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101418

Climate change impacts on human culture

Mothers’ Digital Caring Labor as Climate Action: Leadership and Collective Care in Modern Cloth Nappy Facebook Groups, Condie, Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2026.2638864

Other

Antarctic minerals in a warming world, Lucas et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02569-1

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A call for evidence-based adaptation: mitigating the rising global health burden of extreme heat, Li et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101287

Climate change is speeding up — the pace nearly doubled in ten years, Witze, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00745-z

Climate research is global — risks and responsibilities should also be distributed, Rui et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00680-z

Experimenting for impact: Combining research with advocacy for climate stability, Suter et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000837

GHG accounting needs two metrics: stabilisation temperature and damage, Touborg & Ball, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2026.2634259

Thirty-six solutions to stabilize Earth’s climate, McJeon & Ou, Science 10.1126/science.aed5212

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Taking Charge of Cleaner Automotive Supply Chains, Lead the Charge

This is the fourth annual Leaderboard documenting progress towards equitable, sustainable and fossil-free electric vehicle (EV) supply chains. The authors evaluate 18 of the world’s leading automakers on their efforts to eliminate emissions, environmental harms, and human rights violations from their supply chains. This year’s analysis shows that even cleaner EVs — built with decarbonized materials, circular practices and a human rights-respecting supply chain — are within reach. The best-in-class score now stands at 86%, a level of performance any automaker could achieve by emulating practices already in place across the industry. The average score across all 18 companies has also risen for the third year in a row. Industry leaders are pulling further ahead. Since the Leaderboard launched, Tesla, Ford, Volvo, Mercedes and Volkswagen have improved at twice the rate of their peers. While many automakers continue to limit their supply chain practices to standardized, one-size-fits-all approaches, leaders are increasingly pursuing more targeted, material-specific strategies with greater potential for real-world impact. Yet overall progress remains far too slow. For the fourth consecutive year, no automaker has scored above 50%, and the overall average sits at just 25%. Some companies have even gone backwards on ambition and transparency. With clear pathways and proven models of best practice now in place, continued underperformance is a choice.

Delivering high quality climate change, nature and sustainability education for all, McRae et al., Multiple

Capitalizing on greater climate change, nature and sustainability education in the national (UK) curriculum will need a detailed programme of support to make the changes a reality, according to a new report published. The report, produced following discussions with more than 40 professional bodies and teaching organizations, sets out ten priority areas for improving climate education following the UK government's Curriculum and Assessment Review. The experts argue that while the curriculum review is a welcome step, real change will require coordinated support across the whole education system. It also urges the Office for Standards in Education, Children's Services and Skills to incorporate schools' sustainability actions and climate change, nature and sustainability education into their inspection framework.

CDRmare HUB Workshop Report. Monitoring Environmental Impacts of mCDR Field Tests, Sarpey et al., GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel

A workshop brought together a diverse group of scientists to advance a shared understanding of what constitutes responsible and feasible environmental monitoring, reporting, and verification (eMRV) for marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) field experiments. Given emerging developments in regulating mCDR research, such as the forthcoming amendments to Germany’s High Seas Dumping Act, the workshop provided a great opportunity to examine interdisciplinary scientific and legal challenges associated with monitoring environmental impacts. Across three thematic sessions, international experts provided insights into the current state of scientific knowledge, lessons learned from conducted and planned field experiments, and the evolving legal landscape relevant to mCDR-related eMRV. The workshop report synthesizes the key points discussed. Next steps include using this synthesis, along with the network of participating experts, to prepare consolidated scientific publications as scientific input for the dynamic debate on mCDR eMRV governance.

The Urgent Case Against Data Centers, Food and Water Watch

Data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) are driving higher energy bills, more climate chaos, dwindling water supplies, and much more. Based on the latest research, there are 10 ways data centers leech off communities and the planet for Big Tech’s profit including a single hyperscale data center can consume as much energy as 2 million U.S. households; the thirst for fuel is being met by keeping old coal-fired power plants running and by building new natural gas ones; increased energy demand can raise residential rates, which soared 31 percent from 2020 to 2025 (compared to 4 percent from 2015 to 2020); and by 2028, AI data centers could use as much water as 18.5 million households, just for cooling their servers.

Bubble or Nothing, Advait Arun, Center for Public Enterprise

Should economic conditions in the tech sector sour, the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) boom may evaporate—and, with it, the economic activity associated with the boom in data center development. Data centers are an asset with the characteristics of both real estate and infrastructure: Data centers have tenants, chiefly large tech companies, that are undertaking expensive long-term capital investment plays with fast-depreciating assets and minimal cash flow to show for them. A careful review of these characteristics suggest that the sector faces the following salient risks including data center tenants will undertake multiple cycles of intense and increasingly expensive capital expenditure within a single lease term, posing considerable tenant churn risks to data center developers. This asset-liability mismatch between data center developers and their tenants will strain developers’ creditworthiness without guarantees from market-leading tech companies. Circular financing, or “roundabouting,” among so-called hyperscaler tenants—the leading tech companies and AI service providers—create an interlocking liability structure across the sector. These tenants comprise an incredibly large share of the market and are financing each others’ expansion, creating concentration risks for lenders and shareholders.

Solar Market Insight Report, Solar Energy Industries Association

The U.S. solar industry installed 43.2 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of capacity in 2025, a 14% decrease from 2024. The utility-scale sector shrank nearly 40% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter. Revised tax credit timelines and safe harbor dynamics reduced the imperative to interconnect by year-end. They also increased the urgency to begin construction on new projects. Solar accounted for 54% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the U.S. grid in 2025. Combined, solar and storage made up 79% of new capacity in this timeframe. Throughout all of Wood Mackenzie’s U.S. power sector outlooks, solar capacity constitutes roughly half of new capacity added each year through 2060. 2025 was a monumental year for the U.S. solar manufacturing industry. New cell capacity continued to expand, and wafer capacity came online for the first time since 2016. Module manufacturing grew more than 50% in 2025, with 65.5 GW of capacity online, up from 42.5 GW at the end of 2024. However, the actual production of these facilities remains considerably below domestic demand.

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The climate scientist who refuses to stay objective

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 14:09:32 EST

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sarella Arkkila

Mixing science and creativity, “Human Nature: Nine Ways to Feel about Our Changing Planet” documents our irrefutable impacts on Earth’s climate system and the dire consequences we now face. But it does so much more than that.

Written by Earth scientist Kate Marvel, “Human Nature” starts from the premise that it’s OK for a scientist who has been trained to be objective to have feelings.

“And believe me,” she writes, “I have feelings.”

If the title is a nod to human impacts on the natural world, it’s also a provocation. Marvel doesn’t believe in human nature, “at least not in the sense of immutable characteristics that make a particular outcome inevitable.”

In other words, because human behaviors aren’t set in stone, the future isn’t set in stone, meaning it’s up to us to shape the future that we want. And that future, while hotter and more dangerous, can be marked by solar panels, green cities, and restored forests.

To organize and make sense of her feelings, and to imagine that different and better future, Marvel opens the door to the often opaque and complex world of climate science through mythology, history, and storytelling. Each chapter approaches climate change through a single emotion, from wonder, anger, and guilt, to pride, hope, and love, through fear, grief, and surprise.

Take hope, for example. “Is there any?” Marvel asks.

The short answer is yes.

We have confronted enormous challenges in the past, she argues, and we have found solutions. It wasn’t easy, there was opposition, and admittedly, climate change may be the greatest challenge we have ever confronted. But past successes – the Clean Air Act and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer – are reassuring guides, she writes.

So too are the books that she reads to her older son: “At bedtime we read stories about heroes and monsters, quests fulfilled against impossible odds. I tell him that to stop climate change, we will have to do something that no one has done before. But that, he knows, is what happens in any story worth telling.”

To maintain their credibility, scientists are expected to detach their feelings from their research and to suppress their emotions. But Marvel says, in effect, to heck with that, and permits herself to write about wonder, surprise, frustration, and yes, fear: “The most frightening thing about climate change is what it will make us do to each other.”

Many scientists will recognize themselves in passages like this one: “I feel so much,” she writes. “Isn’t this unscientific? Aren’t researchers supposed to be perfectly objective, unemotional, and neutral about the world we study? I can’t be.”

She also writes, with honesty, about her own illness, a blood clot in her brain and possible brain tumor that she calls Mitch. “I’m telling you this to explain something about myself: I now walk through the world in a state of undeserved and overwhelming grace.”

Marvel’s grace and her profound gratitude are present on every single page. She still finds wonder in the smallest things and wants to share them. Especially compelling is Marvel’s notion of climate helpers: the adults and children who imagine better futures and work together to make them happen. Although “Human Nature” gestures toward generational inequality, it could have explored this area further.

Still, it offers something powerful, a sense of collective belonging, inspiring readers to think of themselves as climate helpers who are not alone but part of something bigger that blends scientific insight with emotional understanding. The planet will survive. What it will look like is uncertain.

But in embracing that uncertainty, “Human Nature” invites readers not only to understand climate change but to feel it and even to act.

Sarella Arkkila is a Ph.D. researcher studying the effects of agriculture and climate change on biodiversity at the University of Helsinki.

Fact brief - Can shadow flicker from wind turbines trigger seizures in people with epilepsy?

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 10:36:12 EST

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Can shadow flicker from wind turbines trigger seizures in people with epilepsy?

The flicker of a wind turbine shadow is far below the minimum frequency required to trigger photosensitive epilepsy.

A wind turbine is said to produce a “shadow flicker” when its rotating blades pass between the sun and an observer, creating a repeating pattern of light and shadow.

Photosensitive epilepsy is triggered at frequencies of 3 Hz or higher, or 3 flashes of light per second. Wind turbines generate flicker frequencies of 0.5 to 1 Hz, well below the known minimum trigger frequency.

One study calculated that a typical three-blade turbine would need to operate at 60 rotations per minute (rpm) to potentially trigger photosensitive epilepsy. Modern turbines operate at maximum speeds of only 15 to 17 rpm.

Research and public health surveys have not established a phenomenon of wind turbine-induced photosensitive seizures.

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Sources

U.S. Department of Energy Shadow Flicker

Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection Wind Turbine Health Impact Study: Report of Independent Expert Panel

Front Public Health Journal Wind Turbines and Human Health

IEEE Environment Impact Assessment for New Wind Farm Developments in Ukraine

Energy Reports Journal Occupational health hazards and risks in the wind industry

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #10

Sun, 8 Mar 2026 10:52:00 EST

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 1, 2026 thru Sat, March 7, 2026.

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)

Humanity heating planet faster than ever before, study finds "Researchers identify sharp rise to about 0.35C every decade, after excluding natural fluctuations such as El Niño" The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan , Feb 6, 2026.
Dangerous heat for Tour de France riders only a ‘question of time’ "Rising temperatures across France since the mid-1970s are putting Tour de France competitors at 'high risk', according to new research." Carbon Brief, Giuliana Viglione, Feb 24, 2026.
Wildfire Seasons Are Starting to Overlap. That Spells Trouble for Firefighting. "Simultaneous emergencies in different parts of the world could stop countries from sharing ground crews and equipment, new research warns." The New York Times, Rebecca Dzombak, Feb 27, 2026.
Will climate change bring more major hurricane landfalls to the U.S.? "A deep dive on the latest hurricane science." Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters, Feb 27, 2026.
Rising carbon dioxide levels are now detectable in human blood earthdotcom, Sanjana Gajbhiye, Mar 1, 2026.
Wildfires in the far north may be releasing centuries of stored carbon Earthdotcom, Sanjana Gajbhiye, Mar 2, 2026.
Warming Triggers a Chain Reaction of Disturbance in European Forests "Escalating wildfires, wind damage and insect outbreaks could threaten tourism, water supplies and biodiversity, a new study shows." Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Mar 4, 2026.
Scientists have been underestimating sea levels — for decades "Our coasts are more vulnerable than we realized."Scientists have been underestimating sea levels — for decades Vox, Umair Irfan, Mar 4, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (6 articles)

Q&A: How Trump is threatening climate science in Earth’s polar regions Carbon Brief, Daisy Dunne, Feb 20, 2026.
Trump Is Attacking Climate Science. Scientists Are Fighting Back. "It’s easy, looking at the past year, to see the damage the administration has done. But researchers are also stepping up, trying to fill the gaps." The New Republic (TNR), Robert Kopp, Mar 1, 2026.
Scientists Decry ‘Political Attack’ on Reference Manual for Judges "More than two dozen contributors to the manual criticized the deletion of a chapter on climate science by the Federal Judicial Center" The New York Times, Karen Zraick, Mar 2, 2026.
OBITUARY: The DOE Climate Working Group Report, 2025-2026 It died in a footnote The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Mar 02, 2026.
Beyond ‘Endangerment’: Finding a Way Forward for U.S. on Climate "Environmentalists are challenging the EPA’s repeal of the “endangerment finding,” which empowered it to regulate greenhouse gases. Whether or not the action holds up in court, now is the time to develop climate strategies that can be pursued when the political balance shifts." Yale Environment 360, Opinion by Jody Freeman , Mar 3, 2026 .
As New York Energy Costs Surge, Attention Turns to Landmark Climate Law "The battle to lower costs has reached the State Capitol, where concerns have emerged about the fate of a 2019 climate law and its ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."As New York Energy Costs Surge, Attention Turns to Landmark Climate Law The New York Times, Hilary Howard, Mar 4, 2026.

Miscellaneous (5 articles)

The Story We Tell About Energy Will Determine Its Future Time Magazine, Justin Worland, Feb 28, 2026.
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #08 A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, February 22, 2026 thru Sat, February 28, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, John Hartz & Doug Bostrom, Mar 01, 2026.
U.S. Automakers Risk Being Reduced to Niche Producers of Gas Vehicles "General Motors, Ford and other established automakers risk becoming relics if they don’t catch up to Chinese carmakers and technology companies in electric vehicles and self-driving cars." The New York Times, Jack Ewing, Mar 3, 2026.
Few Details on Trump’s Plan for Self-Powered Data Centers "The president is scheduled to unveil his Ratepayer Protection Pledge as he greenlights data centers to power America’s race for artificial intelligence." Inside Climate News, Charles Paullin, Mar 4, 2026.
The climate scientist who refuses to stay objective "In ‘Human Nature: Nine Ways to Feel about Our Changing Planet,’ Kate Marvel argues that feelings belong in climate science – and that hope is still alive." Yale Climate Connections, Sarella Arkkila , Mar 4, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

China was already a wind energy superpower. Now it’s testing giant airborne turbines CNN, Tom Page, Mar 5, 2026.
Six trillion ways to solve climate change "New research shows that mixing and matching manageable climate policy ‘wedges’ can add up to real solutions." Yale Climate Connections, Bob Henson, Mar 5, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (2 articles)

A Tiny Caribbean Island Sued the Netherlands Over Climate Change, and Won "The case shows that climate change is a fundamental human rights violation—and the victory of Bonaire, a Dutch territory, could open the door for similar lawsuits globally." Inside Climate News, Paloma Beltran, Feb 28, 2026.
An Island Nation in the South Pacific Leads the Latest Push for Climate Justice at the UN Vanuatu urges the U.N. to support a landmark International Court of Justice climate opinion that says governments have legal duties to confront climate change. Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Mar 06, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (2 articles)

‘Normal was left in the dust’: El Niño may return this year and make the planet even hotter "El Niño could fuel extreme weather and raise temperatures to record highs this year, but how sure can we be that it will return?" Eurodotnews, Liam Gilliver, Mar 3, 2026.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10 2026 Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Mar 05, 2026.

International Climate Conferences and Agreements (1 article)

Vanuatu moves forward with UN climate resolution despite Trump opposition "Pacific island says the US weakened its proposal to advance a key climate ruling but vows to hold major polluters accountable" The Guardian, Oliver Milman, Mar 5, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

The Primary Energy Fallacy finally laid to rest! "Just have a Think" on Youtube, Dave Borlace, Mar 1, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (1 article)

Why Science Communication Fails: How to Break Down Misleading Arguments and Inoculate Against Misinformation Resilience, Nate Hagens, Feb 27, 2026.

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10 2026

Thu, 5 Mar 2026 16:27:45 EST

Open access notables

Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, van Westen & Dijkstra, Communications Earth & Environment

The Gulf Stream is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The AMOC is a tipping element and may collapse under changing forcing. However, the role of the Gulf Stream in such a tipping event is unknown. Here, we investigate the link between the AMOC and Gulf Stream using a high-resolution (0. 1°) stand-alone ocean simulation, in which the AMOC collapses under a slowly-increasing freshwater forcing. AMOC weakening gradually shifts the Gulf Stream near Cape Hatteras northward, followed by an abrupt northward displacement of 219 km within 2 years. This rapid shift occurs a few decades before the simulated AMOC collapse. Satellite altimetry shows a significant (1993–2024, p < 0.05) northward Gulf Stream trend near Cape Hatteras, which is also confirmed in subsurface temperature observations (1965–2024, p < 0.01). These findings provide indirect evidence for present-day AMOC weakening and demonstrate that abrupt Gulf Stream shifts can serve as early warning indicator for AMOC tipping.

High-Resolution Projections of Extreme Heat and Thermal Stress in Southeastern U.S., Lu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes

Considering the increasing frequency, severity, and societal impacts of extreme heat under climate change, understanding the regional dynamics of extreme heat is critical for informing public health preparedness and energy system planning. This study investigates the spatial characteristics, dominant drivers, and future evolution of extreme heat days in North Carolina (NC) and Virginia (VA) using high-resolution simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model based on the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method. The analysis of May to September in the two base years, 2010 and 2011, reveals different heat mechanisms. Extreme heats in 2010 are primarily associated with weak synoptic anomalies, whereas the extreme heats in 2011 exhibit stronger land–atmosphere coupling, characterized by soil moisture depletion. Based on these two distinct types of heat mechanisms, projections comparing the current climate (2000-2020) with the late-century period (2060-2089) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) indicate different increases in daily 2-m maximum temperature ranging from 1.6 °C to over 4.4 °C. These temperature changes are driven by variations in radiative forcing, atmospheric circulation, and land surface conditions. The frequency, duration, and severity of extreme heat days exhibit a nonlinear escalation under the three scenarios. “Danger” and “Extreme Danger” heat days are projected to emerge under SSP5-8.5, underscoring the urgent need for aggressive mitigation and tailored adaptation strategies to reduce thermal stress risks in this region.

Multifactor Change in Western U.S. Nighttime Fire Weather, Chiodi et al., Journal of Climate

Reports from western U.S. firefighters that nighttime fire activity has been increasing during the spans of many of their careers have recently been confirmed by satellite measurements over the 2003–20 period. The hypothesis that increasing nighttime fire activity has been caused by increased nighttime vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is consistent with recent documentation of positive, 40-yr trends in nighttime VPD over the western United States. However, other meteorological conditions such as near-surface wind speed and planetary boundary layer depth also impact fire behavior and exhibit strong diurnal changes that should be expected to help quell nighttime fire activity. This study investigates the extent to which each of these factors has been changing over recent decades and, thereby, may have contributed to the perceived changes in nighttime fire activity. Results quantify the extent to which the summer nighttime distributions of equilibrium dead woody fuel moisture content, planetary boundary layer height, and near-surface wind speed have changed over the western United States based on hourly ERA5 data, considering changes between the most recent decade and the 1980s and 1990s, when many present firefighters began their careers. Changes in the likelihood of experiencing nighttime meteorological conditions in the recent period that would have registered as unusually conducive to fire previously are evaluated considering each variable on its own and in conjunction (simultaneously) with one another. The main objective of this work is to inform further study of the reasons for the observed increases in nighttime fire activity.

E-retrofitting can accelerate Europe’s bus fleet electrification by 15 years, Desing, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability

Minimizing climate risks will require accelerating the energy transition on all levels and in all sectors. Replacing 1.4 billion fossil with electric road vehicles will, however, be a process spanning multiple decades. Expanding electric bus transit has the potential to reduce the demand for electric cars while needing little additional infrastructure. Yet, accelerating the electrification of public mobility is a challenge in itself. This paper explores the system-wide effect of applying the emerging strategy of e-retrofitting to Europe’s bus fleet. Diesel buses are thereby retrofitted with electric drive-trains, which reduces environmental impacts compared to the production of a new battery-electric bus. This strategy allows to accelerate bus fleet electrification by 15 years and to increase annual transport services by a maximum of 25%, all without the need to prematurely retire functioning buses. Applied across Europe, e-retrofitting buses can save greenhouse gas emissions up to 300 million tons CO, generate jobs, offer business opportunities, reduce raw material demand, and requires minimal additional infrastructure.

ClimarisQ: What can we learn from playing a game for climate education?, Faranda et al., Geoscience Communication

ClimarisQ is both a web and mobile game developed by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace to support climate change communication through interactive decision-making. This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of the game based on a post-play questionnaire completed by 77 users. Respondents rated ClimarisQ positively in terms of usability and scientific credibility. Self-reported outcomes indicate that the game supported reflection on the complexity, trade-offs, and uncertainty of climate-related decision-making, rather than the acquisition of factual knowledge, particularly among users with prior expertise. The respondent group was predominantly composed of educated and climate-aware adults, which limits generalization to other audiences. Beyond the questionnaire, the game has been tested in dozens of facilitated sessions with thousands of non-specialist participants, with consistently positive feedback. These results suggest that ClimarisQ can function as a complementary tool for climate education and outreach, especially when used in facilitated settings that encourage discussion and interpretation.

Are the public ready to bear the costs of phasing out coal-fired power plants? An economic feasibility analysis, Huh et al., Energy Policy

The phasing-out of coal-fired power generation is a critical policy imperative in the energy system transition towards climate change mitigation. This research examines whether the public is willing to share the costs that will arise from the phasing-out of coal-fired power generation. To this end, this study analyzes the public's willingness to pay for policies aimed at reducing coal-fired power generation and assesses their economic feasibility. Stated preference data from 1000 Korean households nationwide are analyzed using the contingent valuation method and cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The results indicate that households are willing to pay an average of KRW 4514 (USD 3.45) with a 95% confidence interval of [KRW 4,087, KRW 5017] per month in additional electricity fees for the next five years to implement compensation and support measures for the phasing-out of coal-fired power plants. The results of the CBA, including sensitivity analysis, suggest that the implementation of support and compensation policies for coal power phasing-out may not be economically feasible. The Korean public is not yet fully prepared to bear the costs associated with the phase-out of coal-fired power generation, and either increased electricity tariffs or excessive government investment for this process could provoke considerable controversy.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Takeaways from USA TODAY’s investigation of clean-energy opposition, Bhat et al., USA Today

America’s renewable energy buildout is facing resistance, not just in Washington but in county commission meetings across the country. A growing number of local governments are restricting or outright blocking large-scale wind and solar projects. These restrictions come in the shape of bans, permitting requirements that make projects economically unfeasible or moratoriums that may or may not eventually expire. All the while, changing economics and improved technology have made wind and solar cheaper than natural gas and far cheaper than coal.?The investigation identified at least 755 counties with regulatory mechanisms that render it difficult or impossible to develop large-scale wind or solar projects. The investigation relied on data collected for 3,142 counties covering all 50 states through official announcements, county board meetings, news reports, emails and phone calls to public offices.

Oil spill. How fossil fuel interests are seeping into the voluntary carbon market rulebook, nigo Wyburd and Jonathan Crook, Carbon Market Watch

Despite belonging to the highly polluting fossil fuel sector, major oil and gas companies are not only among the largest buyers of carbon credits, they are also heavily invested in seeking to shape the voluntary carbon market. The authors zoom in this outsized role. They focus on how oil supermajors employ greenwashing strategies, including offsetting their emissions and using carbon credits to give the illusion of meaningful progress towards reaching their climate targets. Driven by a desire to safeguard the supply of cheap and low-quality carbon credits, some fossil fuel companies have also been engaging with policy and governance processes through both formal and informal channels. These fossil fuel interests consistently back approaches that promote carbon credit use that is in alignment with their commercial interests, including expanding the supply of different carbon credit types and continued market growth. In parallel, these companies operate in close proximity to the institutions tasked with defining and safeguarding carbon market integrity, such as the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) and the Voluntary Carbon Market Integrity initiative (VCMI). While insufficient information is publicly available to assess whether the outcomes of the work undertaken by voluntary initiatives has been directly influenced by oil and gas companies and other market actors, there are sufficient grounds to consider this a credible risk that warrants serious scrutiny.

93 articles in 45 journals by 477 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, van Westen & Dijkstra, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03309-1

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America, Guilloteau et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0343.1

Changing contributions of teleconnection patterns to extreme heat events in East Asia, Nam et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100865

The Antarctic coastal ocean heat budget is dominated by heat loss to land ice melt, Moorman et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec7443

Tropical Cloud Feedbacks Estimated From Observed Multidecadal Trends, Van de Koot et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0264.1

Two-Stream Approximation in Radiative Transfer: Average Optical Pathlength Estimation, Stamnes et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1175/jas-d-24-0148.1

Unraveling the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern: Interplay of Arctic Amplification and Internal Variability in Shaping Midlatitude Weather, Ku et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0599.1

Observations of climate change, effects

A Characterisation of Extreme-Heat Occurrence and Its Trends in Mexico Based on a High Resolution Dataset, Zermeño?Díaz, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70231

Detectable Anthropogenic Expansion of Compound Dry and Hot Event Areas on Global Land, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108219

Evaluation and Spatiotemporal Evolution of Surface Air Temperature Estimated by ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data in East China, Ma et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0108.1

Exploring near surface warming trends across China: Establishing a quantitative optimized random forest model, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108893

Global prevalence of compound heatwaves from 1980 to 2022, Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010

Multifactor Change in Western U.S. Nighttime Fire Weather, Chiodi et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0473.1

Trends and drivers of tropical cyclones originating in the South China Sea during 1949–2021, Li et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101546

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Distinct Future Changes in the Midlatitude and Low-Latitude Connections between the South and East Asian Summer Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models, Chen et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0357.1

High-Resolution Projections of Extreme Heat and Thermal Stress in Southeastern U.S., Lu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100878

Minimal influence of future Arctic sea ice loss on North Atlantic jet stream morphology, Anderson et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025

Multimodel Evidence of Future Tropical Atlantic Precipitation Change Modulated by AMOC Decline, Cerato et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0333.1

Quantifying historical trends and future projections of evapotranspiration in arid central Asia using selected CMIP6 and GLEAM, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1757853

Spatiotemporal dynamics of urban extreme heat under intensifying potential future heatwaves: Evidence from the Tokyo megalopolis, Zhu et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102839

The role of internal variability and external forcing on the emergence of hot and dry compound extremes in the CESM2 large ensemble, Dwyer et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1739394

Understanding the Greenland Tip Jet Role in the Future: Declining Surface Heat Loss in a High-Resolution CESM Simulation (2015–99), Fedorov et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0187.1

Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation Changes Can Amplify Future Cooling of the North Atlantic Warming Hole, McMonigal et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0227.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Climate models exaggerate greenhouse gas impact on recent interhemispheric temperature patterns and tropical climate, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69783-5

Evaluation of CMIP6 Model Performance in Simulating the Stratospheric Semiannual Oscillation, Li et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0045.1

Higher-Resolution Climate Models Do Not Consistently Reproduce the Observed Tropical Pacific Warming Pattern, Dhame et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0248.1

Integration of Physical Bound Constraints to Alleviate Shortcomings of Statistical Models for Extreme Temperatures, Noyelle et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0112.1

Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data, Tang et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025

Machine learning helps to strongly reduce future warming uncertainty, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-70205-9

Micro- and Macroparametric Uncertainty in Climate Change Prediction: A Large Ensemble Perspective, de Melo Viríssimo & Stainforth, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0064.1

Quantifying the spread in sudden stratospheric warming wave forcing in CMIP6, Martínez-Andradas et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-6-329-2025

The Antarctic coastal ocean heat budget is dominated by heat loss to land ice melt, Moorman et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec7443

Trends and variability in global ocean heat content time series data for the period 2005–2035, Bilgili, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106586

Cryosphere & climate change

A method for better mapping of susceptibility to thaw hazards in data-scarce cold regions, Zhu et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115338

Bias in modeled Greenland Ice Sheet melt revealed by ASCAT, Puggaard et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-19-2963-2025

Channelized melt beneath Antarctic ice shelves previously underestimated, Zinck et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02537-1

Declining autumn zero-curtain duration in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River (2011–2024), Luo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.004

Extreme rainfall reshapes permafrost thermal regimes across the Northern Hemisphere, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-70017-x

Frontal variations and surface area changes of Swedish glaciers during 2017–2023, Houssais et al., Journal of Glaciology Open Access pdf 10.1017/jog.2025.10057

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A critical role of ocean–sea ice interactions in the pronounced warmth during the Miocene Climatic Optimum, Tan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03324-2

Coastal changes in the low-latitude western North Pacific region, Xiong et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105434

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Habitat-based BART models for cetaceans in the western South Atlantic: current and future distribution under climate change scenarios, Martins et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107964

Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change, Kazenel et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-024-07241-2

Integrating molecular plant taxonomy into ecosystem restoration and climate resilience strategies in the Global South, Onefeli et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2026.1716707

Key role of moss in supplementing nitrogen for plant growth under warming in a permafrost ecosystem, Zhou et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2516443123

Ocean warming enhances iron use efficiencies of marine ammonia-oxidizing archaea, Qin et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2531032123

Regional risk shifts to monarch butterfly migration due to climate change, Sánchez-Cordero et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000802

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Decadal extreme drought reduces alpine subsoil carbon stocks, Zhou et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2517468123

Impacts of microplastics on terrestrial soil carbon dynamics, He et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01935-0

Long-term observations of atmospheric CO₂ and CH₄ trends and comparison of two measurement systems at Pallas-Sammaltunturi station in Northern Finland, Laitinen et al., Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Open Access pdf 10.5194/amt-18-3109-2025

Multi-Model Assessment of Future Hydrogen Soil Deposition and Lifetime Using CMIP6 Data, Brown et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl113653

Thick tephra deposition reduces the carbon sequestration capacity of peatlands, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105350

Urban excavated soils as an overlooked carbon source: quantifying CO2 and CH4 emissions and mitigation via biochar and soil capping, Bae et al., Biochar Open Access pdf 10.1007/s42773-026-00587-y

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Bringing fairness also into carbon removal shares of countries is essential for a just transition, Danzer & Kirchengast, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103114

Scientific evidence does not support oyster farming as a marine carbon dioxide removal strategy for climate mitigation, Pernet et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2533459123

Decarbonization

E-retrofitting can accelerate Europe’s bus fleet electrification by 15 years, Desing, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae464b

Technological improvements in EV batteries offset climate-induced durability challenges, Wu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02579-z

Aerosols

Declining anthropogenic aerosols amplify Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation weakening in the 21st century, Kim et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69990-0

Climate change communications & cognition

China’s rural-urban climate education divide: addressing environmental justice in climate literacy, Ampofo et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100799

ClimarisQ: What can we learn from playing a game for climate education?, Faranda et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-9-115-2026

Distress and Denial: Dutch Youth aged 16-35 Grappling with Climate Change, Reitsema et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102969

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Evaluation of Climate Risk Assessment in Subnational Climate Action Plans for the Agriculture Sector in India, Choubey et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0033.1

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A Characterisation of Extreme-Heat Occurrence and Its Trends in Mexico Based on a High Resolution Dataset, Zermeño?Díaz, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70231

Detectable Anthropogenic Expansion of Compound Dry and Hot Event Areas on Global Land, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108219

Exploring near surface warming trends across China: Establishing a quantitative optimized random forest model, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108893

Global prevalence of compound heatwaves from 1980 to 2022, Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010

Multifactor Change in Western U.S. Nighttime Fire Weather, Chiodi et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0473.1

Trends and drivers of tropical cyclones originating in the South China Sea during 1949–2021, Li et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101546

Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins, Wimberly et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025

Local and Remote Moisture Sources Both Increase Late Twenty-First Century Arctic Precipitation, Leister et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0359.1

Projecting Multiscale River Flood Changes Across Japan at +2°C and +4°C Climates, Chen et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024ef005884

Climate change economics

Are the public ready to bear the costs of phasing out coal-fired power plants? An economic feasibility analysis, Huh et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115177

Global economic exposure to climate change amplified by spatially compounding climate extremes, Biess et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-70127-6

The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism: Does it impact the competitiveness of China's export trade?, Wang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115161

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Local ordinances and large-scale solar development in the United States, Lee et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115088

Policy goal communication increases support for ambitious renewable energy policies, Brückmann & Stadelmann-Steffen, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000823

The sustainability trilemma of land scarcity: Quantifying the societal cost of Taiwan's energy transition, Zhao et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115223

Were subsidy phase-outs premature for offshore wind power in China?, Lin & Xu, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101967

‘Decision-support’ tools for the assessment of co-benefits: Insights from energy and climate policy in the United Kingdom, Lait & Foxon, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115174

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Microcredit as an adaptation strategy to climate change in coastal Bangladesh based on the theory of planned behavior, Mahedi et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-02930-6

Opportunity windows accelerate action and expand options for climate adaptation in Europe, Di Fant et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03332-2

Reassessing boreal wildfire drivers enables high-resolution mapping of emissions for climate adaptation, Eckdahl et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adw5226

Climate change impacts on human health

Community perceptions on climate change and its impacts on malaria transmission in South-eastern Tanzania, Nshatsi et al., Malaria Journal Open Access 10.1186/s12936-026-05835-x

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Climate research is global — risks and responsibilities should also be distributed, Rui et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00680-z

Book reviews

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

2026 Annual Energy Report Vermont's Energy Supply and Demand Key Insights, Recommendations, and Data on Vermont’s Energy Sectors, Vermont Department of Public Service

Vermont’s electric rates are increasing quickly. Dozens of rate cases over the last few years have substantially increased Vermonters’ electricity cost burden. Regional cost pressures, renewable energy requirements, and storm costs are expected to continue to drive rate increases. Despite these increases, Vermont electric costs remain stable and slightly lower than other Northeast states. Weatherization progress continues but could be more efficiently delivered. Vermont continues to make slow but steady progress toward weatherizing its building stock. Dozens of programs serve Vermonters, but they can cause customer confusion and inefficient use of ratepayer and taxpayer investments. Federal Funding is uncertain. 2025 Saw significant federal funding disruption, affecting current programs and the expectation for future program availability. The instate near-term, clean energy market remains strong with dozens of megawatts of solar being proposed by developers through contracts with utilities. Storage deployment remains top in the region. Vermont is ranked first in the nation in percent of clean energy jobs per capita.

A Spatial Analysis of Ground-Mounted Solar Arrays and Agricultural Land in Colorado, Jeremiah Garrick, Colorado Solar and Storage Association

Nearly 90 percent of Colorado’s ground-mounted solar acreage is concentrated in just eight counties, primarily along the Front Range. Pueblo County is the epicenter of solar development, hosting almost 47% of Colorado’s total ground-mounted solar acreage. Twenty-five counties had no ground-mounted solar development. Even in counties with the most solar development, ground-mounted solar occupies well under one percent of total county land area. Approximately 38 percent of solar acreage overlaps with soils classified as agriculturally important, often in areas where farmland dominates the landscape and alternative siting options are limited

Western regionalization: Day-Ahead market benefits analysis for Arizona balancing authorities, Aurora Energy Research, Environmental Defense Fund

Arizona’s largest electric utilities, including Arizona Public Service (APS), Salt River Project (SRP), and Tucson Electric Power (TEP), are all primed to join a regional “day-ahead market” within the next few years. They have two options: 1) the Extended Day-Ahead Market (EDAM), which will be governed by a new independent Regional Organization for Western Energy (ROWE) and operated by the California Independent System Operator, which is poised to be the largest and most resource-diverse market in the region; and 2) Markets+, another day-ahead electricity market that will be run by the Southwest Power Pool. The authors compare these two options and find that APS could save its residential customers nearly $110 million annually more than projected under their current market selection if they instead went with the larger market option. For APS customers, that’s about $50 per year in savings. Additionally, if all Arizona utilities joined the larger market, they would collectively save $114.9 million per year more than the alternative market. These results underscore the significance of this decision for the utilities and their consumers in Arizona.

Takeaways from USA TODAY’s investigation of clean-energy opposition, Bhat et al., USA Today

America’s renewable energy buildout is facing resistance, not just in Washington but in county commission meetings across the country. A growing number of local governments are restricting or outright blocking large-scale wind and solar projects. These restrictions come in the shape of bans, permitting requirements that make projects economically unfeasible or moratoriums that may or may not eventually expire. All the while, changing economics and improved technology have made wind and solar cheaper than natural gas and far cheaper than coal.?The investigation identified at least 755 counties with regulatory mechanisms that render it difficult or impossible to develop large-scale wind or solar projects. The investigation relied on data collected for 3,142 counties covering all 50 states through official announcements, county board meetings, news reports, emails and phone calls to public offices.

Integrated Ocean Carbon Research: a vision primed for implementation, Austin et al., The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO

The authors offer the most comprehensive evaluation to date of the processes driving ocean carbon uptake and storage, and identifies the research priorities required to strengthen global climate planning. Despite major scientific advances, significant uncertainties remain in estimating how much carbon the ocean absorbs each year. Current models diverge by 10-20% globally, and even more in certain regions. These discrepancies stem from limited observations and incomplete understanding of how physical, biological, chemical, and human-driven processes shape the ocean carbon cycle. Among the most influential knowledge gaps are warming, stratification, and changes in ocean mixing; shifts in plankton communities, microbial activity, and food?web dynamics; carbon transfers across coastal, land?ocean, and polar interfaces; growing impacts of industrial activities, including trawling, dredging, drilling, aquaculture, and deep?sea mining; uncertainties around future marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) approaches, such as seaweed cultivation, iron fertilization, and alkalinity enhancement; and together, these unknowns mean governments are making climate decisions without fully understanding how the ocean, our largest carbon sink, will behave in the future.

Grid Growth, Utilization, and Affordability: A Playbook for States, Jigar Shah and Arnab Pal, Deploy Action

The United States electrical grid has entered a period of rapid transformation. Electricity demand is surging at a pace not seen in 25 years, driven by data centers, industrial reshoring, and rising electrification. In parallel, electricity bills have become a major economic and political concern. Retail rates increased roughly ~25% from 2018 to 2024, driven by increasing transmission and distribution costs, and are projected to rise faster than inflation through 2030 absent intervention. If states respond to load growth using the planning models of the past (peak-driven buildout of poles / wires), retail customers will bear an undue cost burden. If modern tools are used, states can increase use of existing grid assets to defer near-term costs while harnessing long-term load growth to spread fixed costs over a growing customer base. Together, these actions would stabilize electricity prices and help preserve customer affordability. State leaders will play a critical role in determining the path forward. Proactive leaders will take steps to more intelligently use existing infrastructure while securing decade-defining long-term investments in their regional economy.

North America Data Center Trends H2 2025, CBRE

The overall vacancy rate in primary markets fell to a record low 1.4% at year-end. Scarce available inventory continues to limit large-scale deployments, prompting preleasing and off-market activity. Primary market supply increased by 36% year-over-year to 9,432 megawatts (MW), surpassing the 34% increase in 2024, due to accelerated hyperscale demand. Primary markets posted record net absorption of 2,497.6 MW in 2025, outpacing the previous record of 1,809.5 MW in 2024. This surge reflects accelerated leasing activity and occupancy of new supply. Northern Virginia led all primary markets for net absorption in 2025 with 1,102.0 MW. Dallas absorbed 470.8 MW, up by 424.0 MW year-over-year, underscoring the region’s growing appeal to hyperscale users.

Powering Intelligence 2026. Updated Scenarios of U.S. Data Center Electricity Use and Power Strategies, Blanford et al., Electric Power Research Institute

Data centers, industrial onshoring, and transport electrification are driving renewed regional load growth. In the United States and other nations, clusters of new, large loads are testing utilities’ ability to keep pace and are spurring technical and business innovation. Artificial Intelligence (AI) plays a growing, but uncertain role in data center load. AI workloads are estimated to account for 15-25% of data center electricity today and that share is rising rapidly even as non-AI data center demand continues steady growth. However, the pace and scale of AI adoption, the power intensity of AI hardware and algorithms, and power system and supply chain constraints remain highly uncertain. EPRI projects data centers to consume 9% to 17% of U.S. electricity by 2030, up from 4% to 5% today. EPRI developed Low, Medium, and High growth scenarios of U.S. state-level data center power demand through 2030 using commercial project development data. The Low scenario assumes most projects under construction and one-fourth of those in advanced planning are fully operational by 2030. The High Scenario assumes all projects under construction or in advanced planning plus 30% of those in early planning quickly overcome supply chain and process constraints to be operational by 2030.

Exploring climate preparedness in low- and middle-income countries, Liu et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Yale University

Higher levels of economic, governmental, and social readiness for extreme weather in low- and middle-income countries does not mean that people in those countries feel more prepared. In some countries, many individuals are preparing for extreme weather events, but their governments are taking fewer actions than other countries. Countries with lower governmental and individual readiness may require support for capacity-building.

The Cost Of Inaction, Perkins et al., Apparel Impact Institute

Drawing on strategic insights from 10 leading global apparel brands, the authors illustrate how climate risks are increasing costs for companies in the fashion industry, with the potential to affect bottom lines by up to 34% in 2030 and up to 67% by 2040. The authors transform climate risk into financial terms, quantifying the growing financial losses brands will incur unless they act against climate change and its risks. Drawing on insights from participating brands, the authors' identify three primary risks – increasing carbon prices, and higher raw material and energy costs – to quantify how inaction on climate change impacts companies’ operating margins and drives material profit losses. Encouragingly, the authors' also find that early investment, particularly in supplier decarbonization, can unlock business resilience and help brands maintain long-term competitiveness. Key findings from the report include inaction could reduce the value of the $1.77 trillion fashion industry by 70% by 2040 for a conventional operator under a net-zero scenario; conventional operators that delay the energy transition face higher costs and multiplying exposures, including volatile and rising fossil fuel prices tied to coal reliance and raw material risks; incremental improvements deliver meaningful near-term cost relief, build resilience, and unlock capital for future, larger-scale decarbonization efforts. Examples include enhancing energy efficiency and adopting heat recovery; and derisking supply chains and decoupling profitability from climate-volatile inputs helps companies become more resilient and face four to five times less exposure by 2040 across risks.

Weather Modification: NOAA Should Strengthen Oversight to Ensure Reliable Information, Howard et al., Government Accountability Office

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the only federal agency with responsibilities under the Weather Modification Reporting Act of 1972 (the Act). The authors examine the extent to which NOAA is meeting its statutory responsibilities for overseeing current U.S. weather modification reporting and is prepared to oversee an emerging approach like solar geoengineering. To conduct this review, the authors analyzed a representative sample of weather modification reports filed with NOAA and available on its website and compared reports to information from other sources. The authors reviewed 54 articles from a structured literature search, visited nine locations across two states, and held 24 interviews with agency officials, operators, and other stakeholders. The authors made three recommendations, including that NOAA should (1) establish written agency guidance for its review of and confirmation that all weather modification reports submitted to NOAA contain the legally required information; (2) improve NOAA’s instructions on how to complete the reporting forms for a range of weather modification activities, including emerging solar geoengineering activities; and (3) implement a process to regularly inform the operators as well as state and local agencies directly about NOAA’s role in weather modification oversight, the applicability of the Act to different activities, and where to find required reporting forms. NOAA agreed with the recommendations.

Military Installations: DOD Should Improve Natural Disaster Cost Tracking and Planning for Resilience Improvements, Williams et al., Government Accountability Office

Extreme weather and natural disasters have resulted in billions of dollars of damages to military installations over the past decade. Such damages can affect the Department of Defense's (DoD) ability to execute its mission and disrupt installation resources that support service members and their families. The authors assessed DD’s recovery from natural disasters at military installations. he authors examined the extent to which DoD has (1) tracked costs and damages associated with natural disasters since 2015 and (2) increased resilience of selected installations affected by natural disasters. The authors reviewed documentation and interviewed officials from a non-generalizable sample of 12 installations on disaster damages and resilience improvement efforts and conducted in-person site visits at three of these installations. The authors analyzed annual and supplemental appropriations to identify funds designated for disaster recovery. The authors also reviewed documentation and interviewed DoD and military department officials related to installations’ recovery efforts and collection of related data. The authors made five recommendations, including that DoD improve its efforts to collect data on the effects of extreme weather at installations and that the military departments issue guidance to enhance the use of resilience information in installation master plans. DoD concurred with all the recommendations.

US Energy Storage Market Outlook, Q1 2026, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Ltd, Solar Energy Industries Association

In 2025, battery energy stationary storage (BESS )installations surpassed 57 GWh/28 GW, a year-on-year increase of 29% (GWh). The utility-scale market underpinned growth with just under 50 GWh/16 GW installed, with California, Texas and Arizona accounting for 74% of installed capacity. Meanwhile, the behind-the-meter (BTM) market saw its share of demand remain consistent with 2024 at 13% of the total market, representing 8 GWh/12 GW. The BTM market saw strong growth in the residential market as the 25D tax credit comes to an end. Throughout 2025 the U.S. BESS policy landscape has seen significant change, with the most substantial being the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Several states also announced greater commitments to renewables and energy storage. U.S. BESS deployments are set to increase to 70 GWh/35 GW in 2026, with the utility-scale market accounting for 62.4 GWh/20.2 GW and BTM markets accounting for 7.3 GWh/14.8 GW. This represents an estimated $25.2B in capital investment. By 2030, the market is set to exceed annual installations of 110 GWh/47 GW. By 2030 cumulative installed utility-scale BESS is set to reach just under 500 GWh.

Retail rate trends in the US, DeCourcey et al., Charles River Assoicates

Rate increases have been concentrated in specific regions – the Northeast due to wholesale electricity market price increases, and California due to wildfire-related costs. Most areas have experienced stable rates, with utilities effectively managing controllable costs. Data centers have generally not caused retail rate increases, with one exception in parts of the PJM region where capacity price increases were driven partly by data center demand. Protective large load tariffs and agreements are being implemented to prevent cost shifts to existing customers.

Oil spill. How fossil fuel interests are seeping into the voluntary carbon market rulebook, nigo Wyburd and Jonathan Crook, Carbon Market Watch

Despite belonging to the highly polluting fossil fuel sector, major oil and gas companies are not only among the largest buyers of carbon credits, they are also heavily invested in seeking to shape the voluntary carbon market. The authors zoom in this outsized role. They focus on how oil supermajors employ greenwashing strategies, including offsetting their emissions and using carbon credits to give the illusion of meaningful progress towards reaching their climate targets. Driven by a desire to safeguard the supply of cheap and low-quality carbon credits, some fossil fuel companies have also been engaging with policy and governance processes through both formal and informal channels. These fossil fuel interests consistently back approaches that promote carbon credit use that is in alignment with their commercial interests, including expanding the supply of different carbon credit types and continued market growth. In parallel, these companies operate in close proximity to the institutions tasked with defining and safeguarding carbon market integrity, such as the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) and the Voluntary Carbon Market Integrity initiative (VCMI). While insufficient information is publicly available to assess whether the outcomes of the work undertaken by voluntary initiatives has been directly influenced by oil and gas companies and other market actors, there are sufficient grounds to consider this a credible risk that warrants serious scrutiny.

Practical Guide on Climate Action and the Human Rights of Women and Girls, Javier Palummo Lantes, Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and its' Special Rapporteurship on Economic, Social, Cultural and Environmental Rights

The author recognizes that the climate emergency does not affect everyone equally, nor does it distribute the costs of adaptation and State action in an equitable way. In the Americas, climate risks tend to fall more heavily on women and girls, among other factors, due to the gendered division of labor, the disproportionate burden of care work, and persistent gaps in access to land, water, basic services, timely information, and meaningful decision-making spaces. The author also warns that these effects intensify when structural inequalities linked to poverty, ethnic-racial identity, territory, age, disability, or migration status intersect. Thus, climate policies that fail to incorporate a human rights approach and a gender perspective may end up reproducing—and even deepening—pre-existing inequalities, even when pursuing legitimate climate objectives.

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Will climate change bring more major hurricane landfalls to the U.S.?

Wed, 4 Mar 2026 16:53:40 EST

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters

In brief

The strongest hurricanes are likely to grow stronger as a result of climate change.
So far, there has been no significant increase or decrease in the number of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States.
However, it’s likely that there has been an increase in the number of major hurricanes in the Atlantic as a whole since 1946.
Also, the intensity of landfalling continental U.S. hurricanes has increased, so even if the total number of landfalls has not increased, their potential to do damage has.
When major hurricanes do hit, they will do more damage than they did in the past: They will be stronger, wetter, and bring higher storm tides because of sea level rise.
Expect to see more periods of major U.S. landfall activity in the future, but also gaps when no major landfalls occur.

When I wrote my first-ever blog post on a named storm in the Atlantic on June 9, 2005 — for Tropical Storm Arlene — little did I expect the season of atmospheric mayhem that awaited.

An incredible 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes later — including four Cat 5s and four U.S. landfalls by major hurricanes — New Year’s Eve 2005 found me blogging on Tropical Storm Zeta a half hour before midnight. I wondered, not for the first time, if climate change had caused us to cross a threshold into a new realm of permanent atmospheric frenzy, since the 2004 hurricane season had also been bonkers.

I asked myself, “Is this going to happen for every Atlantic hurricane season from now on? If so, I’d better get off the computer and go drink some champagne!” And I did.

Fortunately, the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was an incredible relief — below average in all metrics, with no landfalling hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic. And remarkably, for the next 11 years, no major hurricanes hit the U.S. — the longest such gap on record (Fig. 1). Perhaps more unbelievable: No hurricanes of any kind hit Florida from 2006-2015 — a 10-year landfall drought.

Figure 1. Landfalling mainland U.S. Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes since 1900. The blue trend line shows no significant trend.

U.S. major hurricane landfalls return with a vengeance

But in 2016, Florida received its first hurricane landfall since 2005, when Cat 1 Hurricane Hermine hit the Panhandle. And beginning in 2017, the U.S. has gotten absolutely hammered by hurricanes, many of them major hurricanes, including a record-tying streak of five consecutive years with a major hurricane landfall (2020-2024). And between 2017 and 2024, seven Category 4 and 5 hurricanes hit the continental U.S. — as many Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfalls as had occurred in the prior 56 years (Fig. 2). The only comparable such onslaught in Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfalls occurred in 1945-1950, when five Cat 4s hit South Florida (Fig. 3).

Figure 2. Landfalling mainland U.S. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes since 1900. The blue trend line shows no significant trend.

Hurricanes are like bananas

So how to explain these numbers? For sure, natural variability is at work in the areas where hurricanes are striking. Jim Lushine, a former warning coordination meteorologist at the Miami National Weather Service Forecast office, used to say, “Hurricanes are like bananas: They come in bunches.” Steering currents and the atmospheric patterns that control where hurricanes form and where they go often have multi-year phases that favor different coastal areas.

My previous post, The future of Atlantic hurricane tracks, discussed in detail the processes at work. In general, it appears that historically, the Atlantic has flipped between two dominant modes, one favoring hurricane landfalls in the southwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and another bringing increased landfall activity to the eastern United States. A switch between the two modes can occur randomly or because of large-scale climate shifts in sea surface temperature patterns.

Figure 3. Tracks of the five Cat 4 storms that hit South Florida from 1945-1950. (Image credit: NOAA)

No long-term increase in landfalling U.S. hurricanes or major hurricanes

From a U.S.-centric point of view, landfalling hurricanes that hit the continental U.S. are the main concern. Since 1900, we haven’t seen a significant increase or decrease in the number of such storms.

But the main metric we should be tracking is the number of major (Category 3 and stronger) hurricanes, since they have caused approximately 84% of the damage and 91% of deaths in the U.S. since 1980. Gratifyingly, the number of major U.S. mainland hurricane landfalls since 1900 also shows no trend.

The long-term U.S. hurricane landfall record is often cited as the best database we have to judge long-term hurricane trends. And climate deniers like this record, because it shows no long-term trend. Indeed, the Department of Energy secretary, Chris Wright, former CEO of Liberty Energy, the nation’s second-largest fracking firm, includes the long-term U.S. hurricane landfall record in his 2024 climate denial publication.

However, the historical hurricane database is too short and too noisy to detect and trend in landfalling U.S. hurricanes, as pointed out by hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel in a 2025 commentary at realclimate.org. He calculated that even if a 50% increase in landfalling U.S. hurricanes had occurred in the past 105 years, there would only be about a 40% chance of detecting it.

The increasing number of major Atlantic hurricanes since 1946: Is it real?

But the long-term major U.S. hurricane landfall record is not the same as overall activity in the Atlantic. And it may not be an adequate measure of risk, given the propensity of hurricanes to behave like bananas. Hurricane steering currents change with time, and if there are more major hurricanes prowling the waters of the Atlantic because of climate change, it might be only a matter of time before a shift in steering currents brings those storms to the shores of the U.S.

Indeed, if we plot the number of major hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1946 (Fig. 4), there has been an increase. However, some major hurricanes could have been missed before satellite data became available in the early 1970s.

Figure 4. Major Atlantic hurricanes in the Atlantic, 1946-2025. There is an increasing trend (blue line). (Background image: Hurricane Dorian, 2019. Data source: CSU)

A 2021 paper, “Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century,” attempted to correct for potential missing hurricanes in the historical record using land and ship observations, which have high-quality data back to 1851.

The authors theorized that no major hurricanes were missed after 1971, but for the period 1900-1956, an undercount of one major hurricane per year was likely. With that correction, the database shows no detectable trends in hurricanes or major hurricanes through the entire record from 1851 until 2019.

Was the method the scientists used to correct for missing Atlantic hurricanes valid?

To test this question, Kerry Emanuel tried a different technique. He modeled how the atmospheric and oceanic conditions favorable for creating hurricanes have changed over time. His research found “unequivocal increases in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity” since 1900, including in the number of major hurricanes.

His approach found that the historical record before 1900 likely missed some events and that even though the number of major hurricanes in the Atlantic increased, there had been little change in continental U.S. landfalls since 1900. In his 2025 commentary at realclimate.org, he argued that U.S. landfalling hurricanes are so infrequent that “the observational data set cannot rule out even large underlying trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes.”

Yet another way to look at the historical record

Because the long-term record of Atlantic hurricanes might have missed storms before 1972, perhaps a better measure of the prevalence of major hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1946, though, might be to look at landfalls not just in the U.S., but anywhere outside of the continental U.S. — including Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean islands. These regions have been heavily populated since the 1800s, and their landfalling hurricane record is also likely very good.

When we look at that record, we see that there has been an increasing trend in landfalls since the mid-1940s outside of the continental U.S. (Fig. 5). (Note that data is available only since 1946 for non-U.S. landfalls, and there is a gap from 1971 to 1982 that must be filled in from other data sources.)

As we discussed in our previous post, a 2025 paper, “The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean,” found that the location where hurricanes form showed a significant shift southward by 346 miles (557 km) from 1979 to 2022 — a shift attributable to climate change. That southward shift may help explain why the mainland U.S. has not seen an increasing trend in major hurricane landfalls in recent decades, while non-mainland U.S. areas, primarily in the Caribbean, have.

Bottom line: I view it as likely that there has been a real increase in major Atlantic hurricanes since 1946. If so, and if steering currents have been friendly to the U.S. in recent decades, we are at increased risk of major hurricane landfalls if those steering currents become unfavorable.

Figure 5. Number of landfalling major (Category 3 and stronger) Atlantic hurricanes, 1946-2025, outside of the continental U.S. If a single storm made multiple landfalls, it is counted only once here. The blue trend line shows there is an increasing trend in the number of these landfalls. Data from NOAA; background image is Hurricane Irma (2017).

Decreased air pollution blamed for increased Atlantic hurricane activity

The main metrics for studying Atlantic hurricane activity – number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy – have seen an increase since 1972, when high-quality satellite data became available.

Hurricane scientists frequently cite a reduction of air pollution and dust over the tropical Atlantic for this increase, though they also point to ocean warming from heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Since the U.S. Clean Air Act was passed in 1970, fine particulate air pollution downwind over the North Atlantic from fossil fuel combustion, mostly sulfate aerosols, has decreased precipitously (Fig. 6). In addition, European sulfate emissions have also significantly declined since the 1980s. A 2022 paper, Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s, showed that sulfate aerosols of European origin weakened the African summer monsoon in the 1970s and 1980s, drying soils and putting more African mineral dust into the air over the tropical Atlantic, cooling the waters. The combined effect of air pollution controls in Europe and the U.S. since the 1970s and 1980s has allowed more sunlight to reach the surface, causing ocean warming. Warmer oceans are beneficial for hurricane formation.

Figure 6. The concentration of small air pollution particles (sulfate aerosols) over the North Atlantic has dropped by nearly a factor of two since the early 1970s, primarily due to more stringent air pollution regulations in the U.S. (Image credit: Murakami et al., 2020, “Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones”, PNAS May 19, 2020, 117:20, 10706-10714, open access)

In a 2019 review paper by 11 hurricane scientists, “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution,” at least 10 papers linking a decrease in sulfate aerosol pollution to increased Atlantic hurricane activity were cited. Four of those 11 authors of the review paper gave low-to-medium or medium-to-high confidence to the theory that decreased fine particle pollution has caused a “highly unusual” increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency since the 1970s. The other seven authors gave low confidence to this hypothesis.

In a more recent 2020 study on the subject, “Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones,” Hiroyuki Murakami and coauthors used a specialized global model with a 50-km grid to study causes of the long-term changes in the number of Atlantic named storms. Their model showed that the reduction in sulfate aerosol pollution was a primary reason for the observed increase in named Atlantic storms since 1980.

The intensity of landfalling continental U.S. hurricanes has increased

Figure 7. The power dissipation index (in units of m3s−3 ) for all named storms making a continental U.S. landfall from 1836-2016 with winds exceeding 46 mph. The observed values from a NOAA reanalysis are in blue, with a modeled value from Emanuel (2021) in red. Dashed linear regression lines are included. The total destructive power of landfalling storms has been increasing since the 1800s, even though the number of landfalling storms has not increased. (Image credit: Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years, Nat Commun 12, 7027 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27364-8, open access)

Unfortunately, the intensity of landfalling continental U.S. hurricanes has increased, so even if the total number of landfalls has not increased, their potential to do damage has. This can be quantified using the power dissipation index: the sum over each year of the cube of the maximum wind speed in each storm at the time of landfall. This is a measure of the total dissipation of kinetic energy at landfall, not accounting for the effect of storm diameter. Power dissipation is also a loose measure of the destructive potential of windstorms. According to a 2021 paper, “Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years,” “these increases are also highly statistically significant over just the 20th and 21st centuries, signifying increasing destructive potential” (Fig. 7).

Conclusion: expect more major landfalling U.S. hurricanes

One of the more confident predictions on how climate change will affect hurricanes is that the strongest hurricanes will get stronger. For example, a 2024 paper, Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes, found that between 2019 and 2023, the maximum sustained winds of Atlantic hurricanes were 19 mph (31 km/h) faster, on average, than they would have been in a world without climate change. With more major hurricanes likely to be prowling the Atlantic in the future — and the potential for steering currents to shift and bring more landfalls — don’t expect the decades-long zero trend in U.S. major hurricane landfalls to continue indefinitely. I expect more periods of high major hurricane landfall activity like that observed in 2017-2024 in our future. And when major hurricanes do hit, they will do more damage: They will be stronger, wetter, and bring higher storm tides because of sea level rise.

However, I don’t think climate change has caused us to cross a threshold into a new realm of permanent atmospheric frenzy, as I worried in 2005. Multiyear landfall droughts like those observed in 2006-2016 are also in our future — though I doubt we’ll see one 11 years long again. Hopefully, 2025-2026 will be the beginning of a multi-year landfalling hurricane drought: El Niño conditions are looking increasingly likely during the 2026 hurricane season, boosting the odds of a quiet hurricane season.

Just have a Think - The Primary Energy Fallacy finally laid to rest!

Tue, 3 Mar 2026 10:42:14 EST

This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator Dave Borlace. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).

Video description

Why does the global energy transition look so slow in the headline statistics — even as solar, wind, EVs and heat pumps surge ahead? New analysis from EMBER argues the problem isn’t the transition — it’s the way we’ve been counting it. By shifting the focus from “primary energy” to “useful energy” the paper reveals how electrification dramatically reduces wasted energy and why renewables are far more competitive than traditional charts suggest.

Support Dave Borlace and his "Just have a Think" channel on patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cw/justhaveathink

The AI-Augmented Scientist

Mon, 2 Mar 2026 15:16:23 EST

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

I was reminded of Arthur C. Clark’s famous third law the other day, that “any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” I’d recently gotten Claude Code set up on my computer, and was using it to help write the code for some reduced-complexity climate model runs. Suddenly projects that would have taken hours or even days were running in minutes. It was not perfect – I needed to carefully help it create project plans, develop tests, and review the results – but it represented a remarkable step up from the capabilities I was familiar with in past web-based LLM interfaces.

I’m something of an unusual climate scientist as, rather than working in academia, my main role is as the climate research lead at Stripe, a financial technology company in Silicon Valley. As such, I’ve probably used AI far more than most other folks in the scientific community, given that we are strongly encouraged to use it extensively for work. I’ve also worked directly with AI labs on projects to evaluate the performance of LLMs in answering climate science questions, and to help enable AI tools to support scientific collaboration.

I started using GPT3.5 back in 2022 when it first came out. Initially it was a novelty but not particularly useful for scientific applications. It was quite prone to hallucinations, would get into endless spirals of errors it would then try and fix, and would often grossly misinterpret instructions. But it had decent skill at coding, and could (sometimes) help solve bugs in my code much faster than trying to search Stack Overflow or old Reddit posts.

This changed with the release of GPT4 in 2023, and particularly with the release of Code Interpreter that could automate data analysis and visualization capabilities. It still hallucinated, was not great at writing, but could arguably code better than the typical scientist. One of the earlier projects I did was to ask it to help visualize how unusual the summer of 2023 was in terms of global temperatures, which helped generate both the ideas of and code for this somewhat viral Climate Brink post (which I referred to as “gobsmackingly bananas” at the time).

Today the tools are much better than they were in 2023. Hallucinations still exist, but they are much less frequent. As someone who has used these tools more than most in the scientific community, I have a good sense of what they work for and what they do not do well today. The tools I primarily use now are Claude Code (Opus 4.6, via my terminal) and the web-app for Gemini (3.1) for projects where integration with my email, Drive, and other parts of the Google ecosystem is helpful.

AI, what is it good for?

So how can scientists best use AI tools to be more productive or expand their ability to do impactful science? What, in my experience, works well with current AI tools?

First and foremost is coding. Scientists are, by and large, not software engineers. Much of their coding is self-taught or from long-ago college classes, and many scientists struggle with writing code quickly, producing well-documented reproducible code, and fixing coding errors. The ability of AI tools to write high quality code has grown by leaps and bounds over the past three years, to the point where its comparable to (or even better than) professional software engineers for many applications.

As such, English (or any plain text language) has increasingly become the new code. Specifying the details about your project, creating a concise plan, and planning tests to ensure that it is working properly has largely replaced writing python code in my workflow. There is a risk here – as with any muscle, coding skill will atrophy without use. It may well be that a decade from now that I’m less able to effectively review what has been produced by AI coding tools. But this can be mitigated by both good tests and an deep understanding of the topic matter, with the latter allowing a critical assessment of results to ensure that they are reasonable.

Another area where I’ve found AI tools increasingly useful is for data cleanup and analysis. In many past projects I’ve spent as much time wrangling the data – merging different files with inconsistent naming conventions, identifying and correcting data input errors – than doing the actual analysis. AI tools have gotten quite good at cleaning, merging, and analyzing large datasets. They can seamlessly operate with more niche filetypes like NetCDF, as well as help put together a clean and well-documented file management system.

Data visualization is another domain where I’ve seen a lot of progress in recent years. As someone who has spent my share of hours banging my head against the proverbial wall trying to get matplotlib (python’s main plotting library) to do what should be fairly simple things, the ability to just write what I want a graph to do in plain English and see it happen is nothing short of magical. After being able to move a color bar scale from the horizontal to vertical axis just by telling the tool to do it, it would be hard to ever go back to the endless browsing of arcane feature documentation.

I’ve also found AI tools increasingly good at coming up with ideas for visualizing data. Some of my recent experiments with new ways to visualize global temperatures (e.g. the tree ring plot) came from prompting these tools to come up with new novel visualizations that are both compelling and different than anything that has been previously published. Similarly, translating static plots that I’ve previously developed into interactive versions (such as those on the new Climate Dashboard) is quite straightforward.

Finally, there are skills that I’ve never developed that AI makes easy. “Vibe coding” with tools like Claude Code lets me build and host websites in a day (e.g. the Climate Dashboard), two things I’ve never done before in my life. I’ve created fun math leaning games for my 8-year-old daughter to help with her school work, and I’m also working on some more complex interactive data visualizations using large geospatial datasets that hopefully should be live on the dashboard soon.

Screenshot from an in-progress update of the climate dashboard using ERA5 gridded daily data.

What is AI not as good for (at least not yet)

AI is good at the more technical, quantitative stuff. Where it falls short, at least for me, is when producing the type of content (like this blog post) that is more of a personal expression of experience or views. You can write a reasonably tight spec (or plan) for a bit of data analysis. Its harder to do the same with an essay. Despite trying lots of difference experiments over the years – trying to have the AI analyze past writings to learn my style – I still find AI writing a poor simulacra of my own.1 There is a certain style of AI writing that is distinct and a bit soulless, and while this may improve in future I suspect this will remain a domain where humans continue to play the key role.

That being said, there are a few use cases where AI can be helpful for writing. It can serve as a reasonably good editor, suggesting tweaks to make a first draft more readable before publication. It can also help out with tone when trying to write something that is outside your normal style. For example, I gave a commencement speech last year to a graduate school program where I wrote an initial draft and used AI to help make the tone more inspirational and fit for the occasion.

I also often use it help draft internal team memos or other non-public-facing writing where the style is less important than the substance. But my personal rule is that anything I publish thats public-facing under my name remains solely written by me.

Research using AI is in my experience good but not great. I find tools like Deep Research in Gemini helpful to provide a good overview for topics where I personally do not have deep expertise; for example, I used it last week to write up a quick report comparing and contrasting different lifecycle assessment standards for using industrial wastes like steel slag for carbon removal projects. But these tools lack full access to the peer-reviewed academic literature (much of which remains behind journal paywalls), and often will provide a less thorough (albeit still useful) assessment of topics that I personally know well.

Similarly, AI still has some shortcomings when used for synthesis or assessment (rather than a simple review) of scientific findings. Exercises like the writing an IPCC report or a thorough review of a climate tipping points requires both familiarity with the literature and the ability to make expert judgements on how to weight the credibility and importance of different sources, something that I find lacking in most AI-based assessments.

One way to potentially improve it is to use AI to help provide the scaffolding for scientific assessments but with scientists ultimately controlling them. I recently collaborated with Google Deepmind on piloting a tool to this end, and you can find a preprint we wrote up about the results (as well as a draft assessment of the risk of AMOC tipping points) here.

AI has a bit of a conservative bias (small-c, not in the political sense) where it will tend to go with prevailing conventions represented in its training data and discount newer studies. For example, when helping develop an AI scoring rubric for climate science knowledge, one of the questions I developed was around what would happen to global temperatures if CO2 emissions ceased. The AI answers often insistented that there was significant warming in the pipeline, despite more recent findings of near-zero zero emissions commitment.

Finally, while I’ve had some good experiences using AI for idea generation – prompting it for creative data visualization options, for example – it will generally not do a good job of coming up with original research ideas. The context that a specialist in a field has about what is important and how it fits into the broader field’s needs is one of the most important reasons that, at least in science, humans will remain the key driver of scientific innovations for the foreseeable future.

The energy elephant in the room

AI is a useful tool for science, but it is important to emphasize some of the macro challenges involved. The current data center buildout driven by AI has (along with other factors) led to a sharp increase in US electricity demand. Some estimates have data centers alone consuming up to 12% of US electricity by 2030 – up from about 2% prior to 2025. Much (but hopefully not all) of this is going to be powered by new natural gas generation, at least near-term.

At the same time, its easy to overemphasize how large an impact this would have on US emissions. A ~10% increase in overall US electricity use driven by data centers would increase US electricity sector emissions by around 10% if powered entirely by gas, resulting in an overall increase in US emissions of 2.5%. To put this in perspective, total US emissions have fallen by around 20% since 2005. A gas-driven AI boom would make it harder to reach our climate goals, but by itself would not move the needle all that much on 2100 temperature outcomes.

Actual energy use per AI query is actually surprisingly modest, coming in at only around 0.3 watt-hours per typical query.2

Energy use associated with common daily activities. From Hannah Ritchie’s excellent Does This Use a Lot of Energy tool.

To put this in perspective, showering for 10 minutes (which is rather frugal) uses as much energy as around 6,000 AI queries,3 while a 10 mile round trip commute to the office (also relatively short) in a gas car uses as much energy as over 30,000 AI queries.4 Now, these statistics can be a bit misleading as models run on reasoning mode can involve a lot of individual queries – and tools like Deep Research could involve hundreds or even thousands. But even power users of AI tools are very unlikely to be responsible for more emissions than a short commute to work.

Thats not to say that the AI industry should be let off the hook here. They should be more ambitious in procuring clean energy to power data centers, including exploring the possibility of large-scale behind-the-meter solar and storage systems. I coauthored a report published in December 2024 that found that in sunny parts pf the country 90% of the annual energy use of a datacenter could be powered by solar and storage (with the remaining 10% from gas backup generations) at only a modest premium over powering them with 100% gas.

But many of the companies building AI models like Google and Microsoft are also the largest buyers of clean energy today. There is a world where spending on AI data centers ends up kickstarting a lot of next-generation energy technologies – things like large-scale solar and storage microgrids, enhanced geothermal, next-generation nuclear, and the like. That will only happen at scale if state and local governments and consumers keep the pressure on for these companies to meet their climate goals – and not let the AI boom become an excuse to let clean energy commitments slide by the wayside.

A (semi) real-time experiment

As I was writing this post I came up with a good idea for an analysis to illustrate how my workflow in Claude Code goes in practice. A few years back I did an analysis looking at how much uncertainty in future warming comes from climate sensitivity vs carbon cycle feedbacks, and I thought it would be interesting to see of Claude could do the climate model runs needed to reproduce the results. As you will see, this provides both an example of what AI tools can do, but also the pitfalls of not clearly specifying precisely what analysis should be undertaken.

I started with a prompt describing the analysis I wanted:

Lets try a new analysis. I want to figure out how much of the range of future warming in 2100 is associated with carbon cycle feedbacks and how much is associated with climate sensitivity. To do this lets focus on the medium scenario, and do three experiments.

First, a full normal run that contains carbon cycle feedbacks and climate sensitivity.

Second a run that use the median concentration/forcings scenario from that initial run and runs the model in concentration/forcing driven rather than emissions driven mode, to give us the range of results holding carbon cycle feedbacks constant.

Finally, a run fixing climate sensitivity at the median value in the FaIR model and only letting carbon cycle feedbacks determine the variance in 2100 temperatures.

Lets create a composite figure with two side by side top plots showing the time evolution of carbon cycle feedback only and climate sensitivity only runs, and the bottom plot showing box plots indicating the 2100 temperature results for the three experiments.

Claude took about 7 minutes of thinking to come up with the plan, as it involved Claude spinning up multiple sub-agents to read through the FaIR model code and figure out the best way to implement the analysis (particularly Experiment 3, which FaIR is not natively configured to do).5

Plan: Decompose Warming Uncertainty — Climate Sensitivity vs Carbon Cycle                                                                                    

Context

We want to understand how much of the range of future warming in 2100 under the CMIP7 "medium" scenario comes from uncertainty in climate sensitivity (how temperature responds to forcing) versus carbon cycle feedbacks (how emissions translate to concentrations and forcing). We'll create three FaIR experiments and a composite figure.

Three Experiments

Experiment 1 — Full run (baseline)

Standard emissions-driven run for "medium" scenario only, all 841 configs. Reuse setup_and_run() pattern from run_cmip7_fair.py:62-113 but with f.define_scenarios(["medium"]). The 5-95% spread at 2100 captures all sources of uncertainty.

Experiment 2 — Climate sensitivity only

1. Extract median forcing from Exp 1: np.median(f.forcing_sum.sel(scenario="medium").values, axis=1) → shape (351,)
2. Create forcing-driven FAIR with "bulk" species (input_mode="forcing") — same pattern as run_cmip7_attribution.py:205-266
3. Fill all 841 configs with the same median forcing
4. Load all 841 climate configs via override_defaults() — these still vary
5. Run → spread comes only from variation in climate response parameters (ECS/TCR)

Experiment 3 — Carbon cycle & forcing only

1. Set up standard emissions-driven FAIR (same as Exp 1)
2. After override_defaults(), overwrite the 11 climate response parameters in f.climate_configs with their median values across all 841 members:
   - gamma_autocorrelation, sigma_eta, sigma_xi
   - ocean_heat_capacity[0,1,2], ocean_heat_transfer[0,1,2]
   - deep_ocean_efficacy, forcing_4co2
3. Leave seed, use_seed, stochastic_run untouched (boolean flags, not climate sensitivity)
4. Run → spread comes only from variation in carbon cycle parameters (iirf_*, partition_fraction*), forcing scale parameters (forcing_scale[*], erfari_*, aci_*, ozone_*), and baseline concentrations

Key confirmation: forcing_4co2 is purely a climate response parameter — it does NOT appear in any GHG forcing function. CO2 forcing uses forcing_scale[CO2] instead. So fixing it in Exp 3 is correct.

Verification

1. Exp 1 median at 2100 should be ~2.8°C (consistent with existing medium scenario results)
2. Exp 2 + Exp 3 medians should be similar to Exp 1 median (same central estimate)
3. Exp 2 + Exp 3 spreads should sum to roughly (not exactly) Exp 1 spread
4. Climate sensitivity should account for the majority of the spread (typically ~60-70%)

The actual analysis was much faster once the plan was created. It took around 2 minutes and 30 seconds to write the code, run the climate model simulations, and produce the results. The simulations here are using a placeholder “medium” CMIP7 emissions scenario provided by Chris Smith, as the official versions of the emissions scenarios will not be publicly released until later this summer.

However, these results immediately looked a bit odd, with the spread in the climate sensitivity only runs exceeding the full uncertainty. Claude noted an unusual aspect of the results upon concluding the analysis:

The figure looks good. The results reveal an interesting finding — the climate sensitivity spread (122% of full) exceeds the full spread, while carbon cycle & forcing accounts for 51%. The sum exceeds 100% because there are negative correlations in the calibrated ensemble between climate sensitivity and forcing parameters, which partially offset each other in the full run.

Now, when you find an unexpected result like this in an analysis, your first thought is that it might be a bug, or if not perhaps an unintended result of the approach you took. I tend to find that Claude is quite helpful at diagnosing issues like this – and helping determine if they were an error in it’s implementation of the code or in my instructions for the analysis. I prompted it to dig a bit deeper:

Lets dig further into why the climate sensitivity only result has larger uncertainty than the full uncertainty analysis. Lets compare each member of the ensemble between the two analyses, focusing on how the temperature and CO2 concentrations differ.

After an additional 3 minutes and 8 seconds of writing and running code, it produced the following diagnostic figure exploring why the results appeared counterintuitive:

Interestingly, this appears to be due in part to the calibrated ensemble approach that FaIR takes to ensure that model runs are constrained to match historical observations. As a result, higher sensitivity models end up with lower associated radiative forcing per a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 (which is a commonly used diagnostic model output and a proxy for ECS) to avoid having too divergent historical results, while lower sensitivity models end up with higher forcing. Specifically, higher sensitivity models tend to have correspondingly larger negative aerosol forcing, while lower sensitivity models have lower negative aerosol forcing. Holding forcing constant in Experiment 2, as we did, breaks this relationship.

Now, this is where having solid background knowledge of the processes involved are useful, and where relying too much on AI can potentially lead you astray. My initial prompt was not precise; I asked the Claude to “use the median concentration/forcings scenario from that initial run and runs the model in concentration/forcing driven rather than emissions driven mode, to give us the range of results holding carbon cycle feedbacks constant.” FaIR supports three different types of runs: emissions-driven, concentration-driven, and forcing-driven. I meant (but did not specify) to use concentration-based runs when possible, and use forcing-based runs when not (e.g. for solar and volcanic forcings). Claude interpreted this as creating forcing driven run for all the variables in its Experiment 2. To properly assess the spread of results when carbon cycle feedbacks are excluded, I need to use concentration-driven runs here (and should have probably caught that in Claude’s research plan if I had taken more time to review it!).

Indeed, rerunning the experiment using concentration-driven runs (with forcing-driven runs for solar and volcanic forcings) produced much more reasonable results in-line with my prior expectations:

It also largely eliminates the odd artifacts in the diagnostics when comparing the same ensemble members across the two runs:

If I were planning to use this analysis in a proper research paper, I’d have spent quite a bit more time at the beginning getting the plan right (including prompting Claude to ask me questions when writing it to resolve any uncertainties). I’d also spend some more time digging into why the climate sensitivity only spread remains so large (albeit slightly smaller than the total spread) and why the medians of experiments two and three are slightly off from the median of the full uncertainty.

But I think this broadly illustrates the power of these tools. Being able to create a detailed plan for an experiment and have AI agents write the code and kick off the needed model runs is an immense productivity booster. It will not be perfect every time – diligence is needed to make sure that the instructions were followed accurately and the results do not include bugs. But as I’ve learned the hard way, human written code has no guarantee of being bug-free either.

I’d be grateful if you could hit the like button ?? below! It helps more people discover these ideas and lets me know what’s connecting with readers.

1 It should go without saying that this entire post was written by me. I’ve also been a fan of em-dashes before they were a hallmark of AI writing – which I find quite annoying as I’m more reluctant to use them now…

2 This includes an estimate of energy use required for model training, though in practice how that is amortized over individual queries will depend on the lifetime of the model in question.

3 On the water use front, you would need to run between 295,000 and 363,000 standard AI queries to equal the direct water used by a single 10-minute shower based on water use data per query from Google Gemini (0.25 milliliters per query).

4 A typical 10 mile electric car ride would only be 10,000 queries.

5 Note that the plan is edited down to the important parts; the full version contains a lot more implementation details and discussions of the resulting visualization of the data.

2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #09

Sun, 1 Mar 2026 10:12:34 EST

A listing of 30 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, February 22, 2026 thru Sat, February 28, 2026.

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Policy and Politics (13 articles)

States push climate superfund bills despite Trump’s opposition "The legislation would make oil and gas firms pay for climate damages from burning their products. Trump has referred to such laws as 'extortion'.” Canary Media, Sarah Shemkus, Feb 17, 2026.
Data Centers Are Not a License to Drill Union of Concerned Scientists, Laura Peterson, Feb 18, 2026.
Why rejecting the endangerment finding also rejects climate science Chemical & Engineering News, Leigh Krietsch Boerner, Feb 18, 2026.
The reckless repeal of the Endangerment Finding Union of Concerned Scientists, Opinion by John Holden , Feb 19, 2026.
‘Irreversible on any human timescale’: Scientist revea‘Irreversible on any human timescale’: Scientist reveals best and worst-case scenario for Antarcticals best and worst-case scenario for Antarctica "Despite being far away from civilisation, a melting Antarctic’s "disastrous" consequences will ripple across the world, researchers warn." euronews.com, Liam Gilliver, Feb 20, 2026.
Trump is making coal plants even dirtier as AI demands more energy "The US is lowering its standards for power plant pollution while generative AI and the Trump administration revive old coal plants." The Verge, Justine Calma, Feb 20, 2026.
Health and Climate Consequences of EPA’s Endangerment Finding Repeal ‘Cannot Be Overstated’Interview by Jenni Doering "In short: the agency will no longer be able to regulate carbon pollution or greenhouse gases—though a couple of scenarios might prevent President Trump from getting his way." Inside Climate News, Interview by Jenni Doering, Feb 21, 2026.
Under water, in denial: is Europe drowning out the climate crisis? "Even as weather extremes worsen, the voices calling for the rolling back of environmental rules have grown louder and more influential" The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Feb 21, 2026.
Why the endangerment finding mattered so much for health and the climate Harvard School of Public Health, Karen Feldscher, Feb 24, 2026.
China cashes in on clean energy as Trump clings to coal "The Trump administration has rolled back environmental protections and blocked green energy development, China is forging ahead." Deutsche Welle (DW), Sarah Steffen, Feb 24, 2026.
Here’s a reality check on Trump’s AI pledge "Trump’s promise to protect power customers’ wallets from data centers covers only part of the costs of expanding AI." Politico, Zack Coleman & Peter Behr, Feb 25, 2026.
Trump touts ‘drill, baby, drill’ agenda – but no mention of climate crisis "President derided Biden’s ‘green new scam’ during State of the Union address, and hailed the rise in US oil production" The Guardian, Analysis by Dharna Noor, Feb 25, 2026.
Trump is dismantling climate rules. Industry is worried. Brookings, Commentary by Samantha Gross & Ryan Beane, Brookings, Feb 26, 2026, Aug 26, 2026.

Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)

Guest post: The challenges in projecting future global sea levels "It is well understood that human-caused climate change is causing sea levels to rise around the world." Carbon Brief, Dr Till Bruckner & Dr Tore Hattermann, Feb 17, 2026.
Limiting warming to 2C is ‘crucial’ to protect pristine Antarctic Peninsula "Keeping global warming to less than 2C above pre-industrial temperatures is 'crucial' for limiting damage to the Antarctic Peninsula’s unique ecosystems, according to a new study." Carbon Brief, Giuliana Viglione,, Feb 20, 2026.
Under water, in denial: is Europe drowning out the climate crisis? "Even as weather extremes worsen, the voices calling for the rolling back of environmental rules have grown louder and more influential" The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Feb 21, 2026.
How Climate Change Is Threatening to Melt Away the Future of the Winter Olympics "From warming temperatures to evolving energy infrastructures, the list of potential host cities continues to dwindle."{ Sports Illustrated, Bob Steiner, Feb 23, 2026.
Fossil fuel pollution’s effect on oceans comes with huge costs "A new study details the vast price society is paying for burning coal, oil, and gas." Yale Climate Connections, Dana Nucitelli, Feb 23, 2026.
Groundbreaking' model can calculate true impact of climate change and it’s bad news for Europe "Researchers have created a new mathematical solution to analyse how emission-intensive actors are responsible for increasing climate damage." Euronews, Liam Gilliver, Feb 24, 2026.
‘Dangerous disasters’: How human-made climate change ‘intensified’ Europe’s winter downpours "Previously 'manageable' storms are transforming into 'dangerous disasters' due to human-generated emissions, a new report warns." Euronews, Liam Gilliver, Feb 26, 2026.
Birds Aren’t Just Declining. They’re Declining Faster, a New Study Finds. "Scientists studying data collected over more than three decades found accelerating losses. Their research offers clues about the causes." The New York Times, Catrin Einhorn, Feb 26, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (3 articles)

The ice on Greenland is acting strangely. Researchers believe they finally know why "The findings could change how the future rise in sea level is calculated." Partner Science Norway, Linn Therese Nicolaysen Hauan, Feb 24, 2026.
Major blind spot in ocean carbon research could undermine global climate predictions University of Exeter News, Alex Morrison, Feb 25, 2026.
Could Melting Glaciers Actually Slow Climate Change? "It’s a comforting idea, but a new study did not find evidence to support it." Gizmodo, Ellyn LaPointe , Feb 26, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (2 articles)

Supreme Court to Decide Key Issue in Fate of State and City Suits Against Oil Companies Over Climate Change "The nation’s highest court has agreed to hear a case that raises questions about climate lawsuits across the country and amplifies concerns about the participation of Justice Samuel Alito, who holds significant fossil fuel investments."Supreme Court to Decide Key Issue in Fate of State and City Suits Against Oil Companies Over Climate Change Inside Climate News, Lee Hedgepeth, Feb 23, 2026.
How Trump’s big climate finding repeal could actually hurt big oil "Without federal climate regulation, fossil fuel industry may be more vulnerable to local lawsuits" The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Feb 24, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

Injecting particulates into the atmosphere isn’t a magical fix for the climate crisis "Geoengineering does little to defuse most of the risks that really matter for people – and it runs the risk of making some harms worse" The Guardian, Mike Hulme, Feb 20, 2026.
The Health and Climate Benefits of Slow Living Time Magazine, Simmone Shah, Feb 24, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

Fact brief - Do solar panels work in cold or cloudy climates? Yes - Solar panels still generate electricity on cloudy days and in cold weather, albeit less. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Feb 24, 2026.

Miscellaneous (1 article)

2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #08 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, February 15, 2026 thru Sat, February 21, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler John Hartz & Doug Bostrom, Feb 22, 2026.

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9 2026

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 08:32:58 EST

Open access notables

Relative Vulnerability of US National Parks to Cumulative and Transformational Climate Impacts, Michalak et al., Conservation Letters

National Parks are under threat from multiple interacting climatic changes, which have already triggered transformations in these protected landscapes. We conducted a multidimensional analysis of climate-change vulnerability for National Parks to identify which parks are most at risk of climate-change impacts and therefore in the greatest need of targeted climate-change vulnerability assessment and planning. We identified 174 (67%) parks as most exposed to one or more potentially transformative climate impacts including fire, drought, sea-level rise, and forest pests and diseases. Cumulative vulnerability across multiple dimensions was the highest for parks in the Midwest and eastern United States due to high physical exposures, the exacerbation of existing stressors, and high surrounding land-use intensity. Western parks exhibited lower cumulative vulnerability due to less intense land use and topography that may provide climatic refugia. However, western parks tended to be most exposed to multiple transformative impacts. These widespread, diverse threats highlight not only the need for coordinated evaluation of vulnerabilities from multiple perspectives, but also the need for park managers to evaluate and plan for potentially irreversible ecological changes to the landscapes and resources that parks are intended to preserve.

[At time of publication the US executive branch has acted to censor access to previously available information about climate change for park visitors.]

Increasing synchronicity of global extreme fire weather, Yin et al., Science Advances

Concurrent extreme fire weather creates favorable conditions for widespread large fires, which can complicate the coordination of fire suppression resources and degrade regional air quality. Here, we examine the patterns and trends of intra- and interregional synchronous fire weather (SFW) and explore their links to climate variability and air quality impacts. We find climatologically elevated intraregional SFW in boreal regions, as well as interregional synchronicity among northern temperate and boreal regions. Significant increases in SFW occurred during 1979 to 2024, with more than a twofold increase observed in most regions. We estimate that over half of the observed increase is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Internal modes of climate variability strongly influence SFW in several regions, including Equatorial Asia, which experiences 43 additional intraregional SFW days during El Niño years. Furthermore, SFW is strongly correlated with regional fire-sourced PM2.5 in multiple regions globally. These findings highlight the growing challenges posed by SFW for firefighting coordination and human health.

Coastlines retreat tipping point under storm climate changes, Aparicio et al., Scientific Reports

Projected changes in ocean–atmosphere coupling under global warming suggest an intensification of storm climates, which, combined with sea-level rise, poses profound challenges to the resilience of sandy shorelines. Therefore, the definition of relevant indicators assessing beach response regimes to wave climate is crucial for future forecasts Here, we analyze 23 years of satellite-derived shoreline positions together with offshore wave data to quantify storm-induced erosion and post-storm recovery tendencies at synoptic scales. Our approach integrates statistically robust storm composites, compared against in situ observations from six sites worldwide, and demonstrates that daily storm-induced shoreline dynamics can be inferred from monthly global shoreline datasets. By extending the analysis using 60-year of wave reanalysis, we identify a critical threshold beyond which shoreline evolution shifts from a seasonal to a storm-dominated regime, leading to persistent erosion trajectories. Since the late 1950s, the proportion of storm-dominated beaches has increased by 2% globally, with pronounced hot-spots emerging. While local beach morphology remain essential to fully resolve coastal dynamics, our findings reveal coherent large-scale tendencies that complement site-specific surveys and provide a global framework to guide targeted field efforts. These results highlight the pivotal role of storm regime shifts in shaping the future evolution of sandy shorelines.

Deliberate destabilization on trial: Fair-process lessons from the Czech Coal Commission, ?ernoch et al., Energy Research & Social Science

Expert commissions have become pivotal in coal-phase-out governance, yet their capacity to unsettle incumbent coal regimes remains contested: do they genuinely shift entrenched power relations or merely create an illusion of participatory legitimacy? Drawing on energy-justice and transition studies, this article approaches the issue from the perspective of procedural justice and assumes this tenet of justice is crucial in shaping the outcome of an institutionally induced destabilization. We develop a four-part framework of procedural justice – member selection, stakeholder balance, deliberative conditions, and public transparency – and apply this framework to the Czech Coal Commission (2019–2021), which was established as an expert body tasked with establishing the coal phase-out schedule. Our results show that the Czech Coal Commission was blatantly procedurally unjust. Discretionary appointments, industry-leaning membership, and compressed timelines that circumscribed substantive deliberation ultimately enabled coal incumbents to retain power over the outcome. This case underscores that rigorous procedural design is a necessary precondition for commissions to function as effective agents of destabilization within fossil-fuel regimes, and that design choices must be addressed if similar bodies are to support credible and socially legitimate coal exits.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Nearly half of Americans think they'll see catastrophic impacts of climate change in their lifetimes, Alexander Rossell Hayes, Economist/YouGov

A majority (59%) of Americans believe that the world's climate is changing as a result of human activity. A further 22% say the climate is changing but not because of human activity. Only 6% say the climate is not changing Nearly half (45%) of Americans think they will see catastrophic impacts of climate change in their lifetimes. About one-third (31%) do not think they will see catastrophic effects, with the remaining 24% not sure A majority (57%) of Americans say the U.S. should do more to address climate change. Only 16% say that the U.S. should do less Most Democrats (90%) and a majority (58%) of Independents say the U.S. should do more to address climate change. Republicans are more divided: 25% say the U.S. should do more, 29% say it should not change what it's doing, and 33% say it should do less Younger adults are more likely than older Americans to say the U.S. should do more to address climate change.

Global Warming’s Six Americas, Fall 2025, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

In 2009, the authors identified Global Warming’s Six Americas – the Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and Dismissive – six distinct audiences within the American public. The Fall 2025 Climate Change in the American Mind survey finds that 25% of Americans are Alarmed and that the Alarmed outnumber the Dismissive (11%) by a ratio of more than 2 to 1. Further, when the Alarmed and Concerned are grouped together, about half of Americans (52%) fall into one of these audiences. Overall, Americans are more than twice as likely to be Alarmed or Concerned than they are Doubtful or Dismissive (24%).

99 articles in 56 journals by 670 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Coastlines retreat tipping point under storm climate changes, Aparicio et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-40886-9

Ecological Feedbacks in the Earth System, Donges et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) Plays a Nonnegligible Role in the Arctic Lower-Stratospheric Temperature Change, Li et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0185.1

The role of atmospheric circulation changes in Western European warm season heat extremes, Noest et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-439-2026

Upper-ocean stratification changes control ENSO amplitude shift under sustained global warming, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69931-x

Observations of climate change, effects

Deep Learning Identifies the Climate Warming Signal in Global Ocean Chlorophyll From Satellite Records, Lin et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl120669

Global warming drives an increase in pre-monsoon tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean, Shan et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69818-x

Heat and Cold Waves in Brazil: An ERA5-Based Analysis of Trends and Seasonality (1980–2024), Silva & Sheridan, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70294

Increasing synchronicity of global extreme fire weather, Yin et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adx8813

Long-Term Trends of Heat Stress Over the Coastal Regions of India, Rohini et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70307

More than a century of oceanic hydrography observations reveals profound climate-related changes in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and its Arctic Gateways, Coyne et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-1463-2026

Scenario of global climate change in the Stratosphere-Mesosphere-Thermosphere-Ionosphere system, Lastovicka et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000836

Temporal and Spatial Changes of Extreme Climate Events in Mongolia During 1961–2023, Liu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70305

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A Climatology of Gridded Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature for the Southeastern United States, Thompson & Brown, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0125.1

A decade of sea ice concentration retrieved from sentinel-1, Wulf et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115252

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessing the Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon in Warm Climates: Mid-Pliocene and Future Projection by the End of 21st Century, Dahiya et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70290

Changes in MJO Teleconnections in the Southeast U.S. Under Global Warming in the CESM2 Large Ensemble, Cui & Maloney, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl119926

Future Impacts of Climate Change on Global Fire Weather: Insight from Weighted CMIP6 Multimodel Ensembles, Gallo et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0540.1

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?, Dollan et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0088.1

No “Wet Gets Wetter” in Kilometer-Scale Mock-Walker Circulations, Sokol et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025av002040

User-Relevant Climate Indices and Associated Uncertainties From Transient Convection-Permitting Climate Model Projections, Pinto et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70304

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Attributing improved diurnal temperature range simulations in CMIP6 to enhanced forcing responses, Sun et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108888

CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections, Ultee et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026

Evaluation of model performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices over eastern China: A comparison of CORDEX and NEX-GDDP models, Yu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108760

Cryosphere & climate change

Basal Melting Variability of the Ross Ice Shelf From Mixing Ratios of Simulated Water Masses (1993–2018) and Potential Climatic Drivers, Pochini et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023103

Long-Term Snow Avalanche Trends in High Mountain Asia: Climatic Drivers and Impacts, Caiserman et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef006503

Seven-decade of mass balance change in selected large Himalayan and Karakoram glaciers: Climatic drivers and regional contrasts, Hussain et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105361

The impact of 75 years of climate change on Mediterranean glacier mass balance, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105370

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Abrupt permafrost thaw linked to diatom proliferation in a Tibetan thermokarst lake, He et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105394

Accelerated north–east shift of the global green wave trajectory, Mahecha et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2515835123

eBird Data Highlight Shifts in Wetland Resources Structuring Waterfowl and Shorebird Abundance, Donnelly et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.73061

Ecological Feedbacks in the Earth System, Donges et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021

Experimental evaluation of marine fogging as a coral bleaching intervention method, Hendrickson et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107943

Geographically-dependent coastal marine heatwaves: Insights from coastal seas around a semi-enclosed bay, Hu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.012

Hungary's Current Climate Conditions Converge With the North-Mediterranean of the 1980s: A Case Study in Mediterranean Ant Species New to Hungary, Cs?sz et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.73096

Impact of climate change-induced temperature and salinity fluctuations on mussel byssus production and attachment strength, Shen et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107936

Marine heatwaves shift intertidal marine communities in the SW Atlantic, Mazzuco et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.20858

Persistence of coral reef structures into the twenty-first century, Cornwall et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00764-4

Rising atmospheric CO2 reduces nitrogen availability in boreal forests, Bassett et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-10039-5

Seasonal bias and overlooked climate impacts in mangrove ichthyoplankton research: emerging threats and knowledge gaps, Vieira Arruda Júnior et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107946

Spatial Heterogeneity in Phytoplankton Responses to Marine Heatwaves in the Northeast Subarctic Pacific, Kong & Tortell, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jc022864

Species-Specific Responses to Multiple Climatic Variables Predict Diverging Locations of Future Climate Change Refugia, Rose et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.70158

Uniting Range and Phenological Shifts to Better Understand Effects of Climate Change on Communities, Hale & DeMarche, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70764

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A gridded (0.1° × 0.1°) methane emission dataset for India for 2023 to redefine global climate studies, Mishra et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-1367-2026

Application of CH4 monitoring technology based on UAV platform in Shengli Oilfield, He et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1746916

Carbon storage in coastal reed ecosystems, Williamson et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-1327-2026

Decreases in South Pacific and South Atlantic sea-air CO2 fluxes caused by extreme precipitation, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69847-6

Dominance of large trees in carbon storage of Peruvian Amazon forest, Lozano et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1711078

Long-term effects of drainage and rewetting on the degradation and preservation of peat organic matter in sub-tropical climate, Sapir et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-1403-2026

Mild Decade-Warming Shifts Soil Organic Carbon Composition Without Altering Total Stock in Temperate and Subtropical Forests, Yang et al., Ecology Letters 10.1111/ele.70339

Plant diversity’s positive effect on soil respiration diminishes with increasing productivity in global forests, Laffitte et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69594-8

Synthesis of data products for ocean carbonate chemistry, Jiang et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-1405-2026

Warm and wet spring compensated for the reduction in carbon sinks due to an extreme summer heatwave-drought event in 2022 in southern China, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111060

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A multi-criteria framework for prioritizing performance indicators for carbon capture technologies: a hybrid Fermatean fuzzy decision support approach, Al-kuwari et al., Environmental Systems Research Open Access 10.1186/s40068-026-00460-8

Downdraft Devices for Negative Emissions—Quantification Study and Environmental Implication, Yao et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access 10.1002/ghg.2392

Uncertainties of enhanced rock weathering for climate-change mitigation, Schiedung et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00761-7

Decarbonization

Climate Implications of Hydrogen Deployment Considering Changes in Emissions From Direct and Indirect Forcers, O’Rourke et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007025

Empirical estimates of installed capacity density for solar photovoltaic and onshore and offshore wind power plants, Covey et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae437f

How much travel is enough? Minimum levels for sustainable mobility: A systematic literature review, Peeters et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104580

Leveraging Wind Energy for Electricity and Hydrogen Production: A Sustainable Solution to Power Shortages and Eco-Friendly Alternative Fuel, Elnaggar et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202500049

Modelling UK air quality implications of decarbonisation using hydrogen, Brighty et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115179

Solution-processed electrochromics for synergistic solar and radiative heat management, Xie et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01774-2

Strategies for synergistic reduction of plastic leakage and greenhouse gas emissions in China, Bai et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69893-0

Toward traceable global systems for end-of-life photovoltaic waste, Huang & Long, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69171-z

Climate change communications & cognition

Are Numbers Necessary to Identify Low-Emission Lifestyles? An Experimental Study on Heuristics and Carbon Competence., Merten et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102948

Educational systems as drivers of social change for climate adaptation: evidence from Southeast Europe, Naydenov & Atanasova, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1763521

How do moral values relate to climate change attitudes? An analysis of language use on X (formerly Twitter) and Weibo, Song et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102736

What determines One's information seeking intention: Integrating information seeking theories in the context of climate change with Korean sample, Jang & Kim, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102941

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Effect of future climate change and adjusting the sowing date on wheat production in the North China plain, Zhao & Xiao, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-026-06088-z

Framing agricultural climate risks for policy action: insights from impact chain assessments in five European regions, Ihrfors et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1717714

Greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions from duckweed cultivation systems using diluted liquid manure, Stadtlander et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-39270-4

Multiple global change factors amplify nitrogen loss and croplands are at the highest risk, Ding et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03316-2

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A capability-based assessment of flood impacts: Towards more human-centred climate policy, Some et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100802

CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections, Ultee et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?, Dollan et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0088.1

River temperature response to atmospheric heatwaves is modulated by discharge and meltwater, van Hamel et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03269-6

Seasonal variations and trends of very wet days in Iran, Kianjam et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Open Access 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101644

Climate change economics

AI in Carbon Sink Trading: Using Attack Trees to Assess Low- to Medium-Risk Scenarios, Zhu et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.70209

Climate-related risks and resilience of conventional banks: the role of sustainable development, Hakimi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1693243

Emergence of Antarctic mineral resources in a warming world, Lucas et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02569-1

Stranded futures? Quantifying the asset risks of industrial decarbonisation in developed economies, AbdulRafiu, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104621

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A new European energy policy paradigm revealed by changes in hydrogen strategies, Kneebone et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115159

Coniferous vs. deciduous: why it is important to optimize the reforestation in Russia to save forests and preserve more carbon?, Shvarts et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1763500

Deliberate destabilization on trial: Fair-process lessons from the Czech Coal Commission, ?ernoch et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104573

Evaluating readiness for hydrogen in the United States aviation industry from a policy lens, Beutler-Greene et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115188

Navigating climate change in carbon negative Bhutan: Insights from policy influencers and comparison to the wider Himalayan region, Dorji et al., Journal of Mountain Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11629-025-9752-7

Systemic acceleration capacity in net-zero transitions: electrifying transportation in California, Goedeking & Rogge, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2026.2616990

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Crumbling cliffs and intergenerational cohesivity: a new climate praxis model for engaged community action on accelerated coastal change, Parsons et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-8-213-2025

Educational systems as drivers of social change for climate adaptation: evidence from Southeast Europe, Naydenov & Atanasova, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1763521

Relative Vulnerability of US National Parks to Cumulative and Transformational Climate Impacts, Michalak et al., Conservation Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/con4.70020

Rising Air-Conditioning Use Intensifies Global Warming, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69393-1

Unpacking the role of climate variability on displacement in the Greater Horn of Africa, Villa et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000594

Climate change impacts on human health

A pathways framework for the climate change-mental health-violence nexus in informal settlements, Winter, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102844

Escalating labor risks from sequential extreme precipitation–heatwave events in China under a warming future, Ju et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.006

Heat exposure and agricultural workers' health: A global systematic review with implications for Peri-urban and semi-urban Southeast Asia, Tran et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102811

Long-Term Trends of Heat Stress Over the Coastal Regions of India, Rohini et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70307

Prevalence and factors associated with the adoption of heat-adaptive behaviors among residents of a French southern region, Guillon & Bourret Soto, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102883

Thermal environment simulation and risk assessment in urban commercial areas under extreme high temperatures, Chen et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102826

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Brazil endangers global climate and health, Machado et al., Science 10.1126/science.aee6316

Defunding Chile’s climate research will undermine science and the region, Poveda et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00592-y

EU leaders should not rush to revamp green-hydrogen rules, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00560-6

The hard road back from overshoot, Palmer, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02573-5

Why China and Europe should collaborate to ‘defossilize’ the world’s carbon, , Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-026-00383-5

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Nearly half of Americans think they'll see catastrophic impacts of climate change in their lifetimes, Alexander Rossell Hayes, Economist/YouGov

A majority (59%) of Americans believe that the world's climate is changing as a result of human activity. A further 22% say the climate is changing but not because of human activity. Only 6% say the climate is not changing Nearly half (45%) of Americans think they will see catastrophic impacts of climate change in their lifetimes. About one-third (31%) do not think they will see catastrophic effects, with the remaining 24% not sure A majority (57%) of Americans say the U.S. should do more to address climate change. Only 16% say that the U.S. should do less Most Democrats (90%) and a majority (58%) of Independents say the U.S. should do more to address climate change. Republicans are more divided: 25% say the U.S. should do more, 29% say it should not change what it's doing, and 33% say it should do less Younger adults are more likely than older Americans to say the U.S. should do more to address climate change.

A Review of Media Coverage of Climate Change and Global Warming in 2025, Media and Climate Change Observatory, University of Colorado Boulder in the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and SPIKE Center for Sustainability Education

In 2025, our Media and Climate Change Observatory (MeCCO) has detected that climate-related issues, events, and developments garnered less frequent coverage through intersecting political, economic, scientific, cultural as well as ecological and meteorological themes than in recent years. Across the globe, coverage has diminished 14% in 2025 from the previous year 2024 and is 38% lower than the highest year of coverage in 2021. In fact, 2025 coverage ranks just 10th in the past 22 years the MeCCO team has tracked coverage of climate change or global warming across the global news sources. When comparing the months of 2025 with the same months of previous years, a general decrease is observed compared to 2024 in all regions. This decrease is greater in the press of Africa, the Middle East, the North America, and Europe. And it is less pronounced in the press of Asia, Latin America, and Oceania. Unlike in previous years, in 2025 no record was broken in the volume of articles referencing “climate change” or “global warming” per month in any region. Only in January 2025 did Asian newspapers break the record compared to the January of previous years. The drop in December is noteworthy, with the volume of coverage in Europe and the North America reaching levels not seen since August 2016 and February 2018, respectively.

Global Warming’s Six Americas, Fall 2025, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

In 2009, the authors identified Global Warming’s Six Americas – the Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and Dismissive – six distinct audiences within the American public. The Fall 2025 Climate Change in the American Mind survey finds that 25% of Americans are Alarmed and that the Alarmed outnumber the Dismissive (11%) by a ratio of more than 2 to 1. Further, when the Alarmed and Concerned are grouped together, about half of Americans (52%) fall into one of these audiences. Overall, Americans are more than twice as likely to be Alarmed or Concerned than they are Doubtful or Dismissive (24%).

Measuring and Maintaining Carbon Markets in Canada, Tim Weis and Ian Sanderson, Pembina Institute

The authors provide input on Environment and Climate Change Canada’s discussion paper, Driving Effective Carbon Markets in Canada. They view industrial pricing as one of the most effective, market-based mechanisms for reducing emissions while preserving competitiveness, leading to achieving Canada’s goal of climate competitiveness. Increase stringency using market tests: The federal benchmark should require systems to meet clear outcome-based tests — such as maintaining an effective compliance price of at least 75% of the headline price and ensuring sustained net demand for credits — to prevent oversupply and preserve a credible price signal. Clarify enforcement and backstop triggers: Establish independent, automatic criteria — based on annual price and demand tests — to identify failing systems and trigger timely corrective action or implementation of the federal backstop. Protect the carbon price signal: Exclude mechanisms such as Emissions Reduction Accounts that weaken credit demand and risk double counting. Expand and harmonize coverage: Pricing systems should apply consistently across provinces and include smaller facilities — especially in oil and gas — where emissions coverage gains outweigh administrative costs.

Compass Project: Guiding minds and inspiring action in climate change education, Climate Cares Centre, Imperial College London and the University of Oxford

There is an urgent need to support young people to navigate diverse climate change related emotions and experiences, and to build and sustain strong mental health and purpose in an uncertain world. Young people also need opportunities to imagine the future they want to be a part of, and see their role in creating it. In this report, the authors explore how this can be achieved through integrating emotional resilience into climate change education. Emotional resilience includes the social and emotional skills that can promote wellbeing, help prevent mental health challenges from developing, and improve academic attainment. In the context of climate change, this can look like creating space to learn about and process climate-related emotions, or supporting young people to build agency for climate action.

Decarbonizing the Peak: A Roadmap for Retiring and Replacing Massachusetts’ Fossil Fuel Peaker Plants by 2050, Bejjani et al., Massachusetts Clean Peak Coalition

Massachusetts has committed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, a goal that requires retiring the state’s fossil fuel peaker power plants and replacing them with clean, reliable alternatives. The authors show that net-zero technologies can meet the state’s peak electricity demand by 2050 while maintaining reliability and containing costs. The authors found that full peak decarbonization is feasible, reliable, and cost-effective, even as electrification drives a shift to higher, longer, winter-peaking demand. A least-cost portfolio of clean resources combines demand-side measures, energy storage, and wind generation to meet 2050 peak demand. When climate and public health benefits are accounted for, this clean portfolio is less costly than continued reliance on gas peaker plants or combustion-based alternatives, such as hydrogen or renewable natural gas.

PJM’s Reliability Backstop Auction: considerations and risks, Aurora Energy Research

The authors examine the proposed structure of the Reliability Backstop Auction (RBA) to assess its ability to address the fundamental drivers of PJM’s supply-demand imbalance; the likelihood of the RBA to move from a one-time intervention to a model for (all) future capacity additions; the outlook for closing the supply-demand imbalance with existing proposals; and risks – particularly higher costs – associated with a potential transition to a capacity auction format that is bifurcated between new and existing generation. The authors found that the RBA as designed will not procure the amount of capacity required by 2030 – up to 24 GW, based on PJM’s load forecast – and is thus likely to set the stage for further intervention. If the RBA evolves into a more permanently bifurcated auction between new and existing capacity, deliberate market design choices are required to avoid unintended higher costs for consumers.

Colorado Climate Damages & Adaptation Costs, Pegah Jalali, Colorado Fiscal Institute

The author highlights projected climate-related damages and resilience needs from 2025 to 2050. It is intended for policymakers, community leaders, and reporters who need a clear, comparable set of numbers to understand the scale of the challenge. Results are shown under two global emissions pathways that bracket plausible futures: a medium-high pathway (SSP3-7.0) and a high-end emissions pathway (SSP5-8.5). Across the impacts that the author quantified, total projected costs from 2025 to 2050 are on the order of $50 billion to $54 billion, of which $36 billion to $37 billion represents additional costs directly attributable to climate change, plus defined resilience investments.

Q1 Data Center Outlook, Julia Attwood and Olivia Wang, Sightline Climate

110 data center projects were slated to come online last year, but 26% of them are delayed, and 10% quietly shifted their Commercial Operation Date (COD) back as power, permitting, and construction constraints dampened some ambitious timelines. At least 16GW of data center capacity is slated to come online this year across 140 projects. 53% will be grid-connected, 3% will be powered solely by on-site power, and 25% have not disclosed their powering strategies. The authors expect 30-50% of these projects to be delayed. Only 5GW is currently in construction. Google?s $4.7bn acquisition of Intersect Power?s 10.8GW pipeline and Amazon?s $83m purchase of 1.2GW of solar and storage show hyperscalers are now willing to get directly involved with power project development if it lets them bring more capacity online sooner. Developers like Aligned and CyrusOne are deploying battery energy storage system (BESS) to advance CODs by years. Grid operators in Ireland are requiring matching backup capacity for new data centers. Massive backup power systems are becoming table stakes for data centers. We expect hundreds of MWs of BESS to be contracted over the next year.

Housing Policy That Solves Climate Change, Ramel et al., Climate Cabinet Education

Americans are facing three overlapping threats: the climate crisis, an affordability crisis, and a housing crisis. State legislators are simultaneously on the front lines of all three, caught between federal policy repeals and a looming economic downturn, but still responsible for improving their constituents’ way of life and cutting emissions. Moving past charged housing debates, the authors offer 16 actionable policy solutions available to state legislators today that make housing more affordable, available, and climate-smart.