Everton gave their hopes of European qualification a real boost on Saturday with a 3-0 win over Chelsea at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

A brace from Beto was followed by Iliman Ndiaye also finding the net, with the striker assisting that third goal as well as Everton recorded back-to-back Premier League wins at their new stadium for the first time.

Chelsea struggled to keep up with Everton’s high tempo after Liam Rosenior’s men were humbled by Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League in midweek, and despite recording more shots in this game (12-10), they never looked like taking anything back to London with them.

David Moyes’ side are now seventh in the Premier League, two points behind Chelsea and just three points behind rivals Liverpool in fifth, which will likely be enough for Champions League qualification again this season.

Everton were certainly the more experienced of the two teams, with the average age of the Toffees’ starting XI (29.1) four-and-a-half years older than Chelsea’s (24.6), and that seemed to tell on a buoyant evening on Merseyside.

Robert Sánchez was selected in goal for Chelsea and in just the 10th minute, almost made his manager regret that decision as he dallied on the ball and was tackled by Beto, but fortunately for the visitors, they were able to scramble the ball away before the Lisbon-born striker could take advantage.

It was a strong start from the hosts, but just as Chelsea looked like they were getting back into the game, Everton struck in the 33rd minute. James Garner – given his first senior England call-up this week – played a perfectly-weighted pass to Beto, who dinked the ball over the diving Sánchez with the outside of his boot and into the net.

Just a couple of minutes later, Chelsea should have been level. Jordan Pickford made a mess of dealing with a corner but made amends with superb stop to deny Enzo Fernández’s shot from the loose ball.

Rosenior’s men struggled to create much in the early stages of the second half too, and it took until the hour mark for them to properly test Pickford again, with Fernández once more taking a shot towards the England goalkeeper’s left, but he got across to save again.

Just moments later, though, it was 2-0. Everton countered through an interception and strong run from Idrissa Gueye, who fed Beto and his shot was too powerful for Sánchez, squirming through his legs and trickling over the line.

Beto became the first Everton player to score more than once in a Premier League game at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, after three visiting players had done so.

It was another direct attack that trebled Everton’s advantage, with a goal-kick from Pickford flicked on by Beto to Ndiaye, who cut inside Moisés Caicedo and placed his effort high into the top corner to Sánchez’s left.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall could have made it four against his former club when he raced down the left on the counter, but his eventual shot was straight at Sánchez.

There was little response from Chelsea, though, who have failed to score in three successive games in all competitions for the first time since September 2023.

Dewsbury-Hall exclusively revealed to Opta Analyst recently his belief that Everton are primed for European football, and they can absolutely dream of that next season after their latest win.

As for Chelsea, Rosenior needs to stop the rot that has seen them lose their last four games in all competitions.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Everton vs Chelsea stats from their Premier League meeting at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well. 

Everton vs Chelsea: Selected Post-Match Facts

• This was Everton’s biggest ever Premier League victory against Chelsea (3-0), the Toffees have won six of their last eight Premier League home games against the Blues, against no other side have they won more home league games against since 2018-19 (also 6 wins against Crystal Palace).
• Beto scored his second Premier League brace for Everton (also in Feb 2025 against Leicester City), he’s now scored more goals (5) than any Toffees player in 2026, having failed to score in his final 16 league games in 2025 beforehand.
• Chelsea have lost three of their last four Premier League games (W1), as many defeats as in their previous 18 matches in the competition (W8 D7 L3).

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The post Everton 3-0 Chelsea Stats: Brilliant Beto Brace Beats Blunt Blues appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Best Premier League Penalty Takers

Raúl Jiménez: 100% scored (14/14)
Yaya Touré: 100% scored (11/11)
Matthew Le Tissier: 96.2% scored (25/26)
Danny Murphy: 94.7% scored (18/19)
Cole Palmer: 94.7% scored (18/19)
Callum Wilson: 94.1% scored (16/17)
James Beattie: 94.1% scored (16/17)
Julian Dicks: 93.8% scored (15/16)
Bukayo Saka: 92.3% scored (12/13)
Thierry Henry: 92.0% scored (23/25)
Ivan Toney: 91.7% scored (11/12)
Aleksander Isak: 91.7% scored (11/12)
Bryan Mbeumo: 90.9% scored (10/11)
Leighton Baines: 90.9% scored (20/22)
Danny Ings: 90.9% scored (10/11)
Gary Speed: 90.9% scored (10/11)
Frank Leboeuf: 90.9% scored (10/11)
James Milner: 90.0% scored (18/20)
Peter Beardsley: 90.0% scored (18/20)
Alexis Mac Allister: 90.0% scored (9/10)
João Pedro: 90.0% scored (9/10)
Mikel Arteta: 89.5% scored (17/19)
Eden Hazard: 89.5% scored (17/19)
Harry Kane: 89.2% scored (33/37)

Only including players with 10+ penalties taken in the Premier League.

The Only Two Players to Score 100% of Penalties in the Premier League*

*Well, of players to have taken at least 10 penalties in the competition, anyway.

Fulham forward Raúl Jiménez has scored all 14 of the penalties he has taken in the Premier League. He went ahead outright for the most successful penalties while maintaining a 100% record when he converted against Manchester United in February 2026.

He took the accolade for the most penalties taken with a 100% success rate from former Manchester City midfielder Yaya Touré. The Ivorian star might have lost his cool about not being given a birthday cake for his 31st birthday, but he certainly kept a fine temperament from the penalty spot.

He took 11 penalties in the Premier League and scored with every single one of them. Seven of Touré’s 11 Premier League penalties turned out to be the winning goal in the game, while five put his Manchester City team into the lead.

Chelsea star Cole Palmer went ahead of Touré on the list in December 2024, but only temporarily. His two successful penalties against Tottenham Hotspur meant he had scored all 12 penalties he had taken in Premier League history.

However, Palmer saw a penalty saved against Leicester City in March 2025 to ruin his 100% record, missing at the unlucky 13th attempt.

Bryan Mbeumo joined the 100% gang from 10+ attempts in April 2025 when he converted from the spot for Brentford against Newcastle United. His flawless record from penalties in the Premier League came to an end on 18 May 2025, though, as Fulham goalkeeper Bernd Leno saved his spot-kick at the G-tech Community Stadium.

His former teammate Ivan Toney had scored all 10 of the penalties that he’d taken by the point of March 2023, and had the chance to equal Touré’s record a month later. However, he missed his 11th attempt in the competition during a home defeat to Newcastle on 8 April 2023. He did go on to score a penalty in the same game, later in the first half, but it was in vain as they lost 2-1. And crucially, his 100% record was gone.

The players with the next most penalties and a 100% conversion rate are Dimitar Berbatov (nine from nine), and Rúben Neves and Chris Wood (both eight from eight).

Matt Le Tissier Did Miss a Penalty

No, this is not a conspiracy. He may have scored 25 penalties in the Premier League, but Matt Le Tissier did miss a spot-kick in the competition. The only man to save a Premier League penalty taken by Le Tissier? That would be Nottingham Forest’s Mark Crossley, in March 1993.

That penalty save mattered, too. Forest went on to pick up a 2-1 away win at The Dell that day despite Le Tissier making amends (of sorts) after his 22nd-minute penalty miss, when he scored Southampton’s only goal of the game in the 72nd minute.

That was Le Tissier’s third penalty as a Premier League player, after scoring the previous two he took in the competition. He would never miss in the English top flight again, though, with his next 23 successfully dispatched past the opposition goalkeeper.

The Guernsey-born forward went on to make Nottingham Forest pay for his saved penalty against them, as he scored his next four penalties against them in the Premier League, including three against his nemesis, Crossley.

The Best of the Rest

Danny Murphy scored with 18 of his 19 penalties taken in the Premier League (95%), with his only miss coming for Fulham at Manchester City in April 2008. Joe Hart was the goalkeeper to ruin his 100% record with his ninth attempt from the spot in the competition.

West Ham striker Callum Wilson (94.1%) is right up there, having missed only one of his 17 in the competition. That miss came against Cardiff City for Bournemouth in August 2018, with Neil Etheridge the goalkeeper to destroy his 100% record.

Bukayo Saka has missed just one of his 13 penalties in the Premier League (92.3%), while Alexander Isak has scored 11 from 12 attempts in the competition (91.7%).

Julian Dicks (15/16) and James Beattie (16/17) both only missed once, boasting 93.8% and 94.1% conversion rates.

Dicks’ penalty technique favoured power, but that wasn’t enough to give him a 100% record in the Premier League from the spot. David Seaman saved his penalty for West Ham against Arsenal in February 1996.

Julian Dicks could take a penalty! pic.twitter.com/RSIG0bY2TW

— 90s Football (@90sfootball) March 4, 2020

Thierry Henry never saw a Premier League penalty saved, but he still missed two of his 25 taken in the competition. Weirdly, both of his penalty misses came via hitting the post against two of the only three Finnish goalkeepers to play in the Premier League (Jussi Jääskeläinen and Antti Niemi). Finish? He could. Finnish? He could not.

Quirky Penalty Record Facts

Unsurprisingly, Premier League record goalscorer Alan Shearer is the player with the most penalty goals in the competition (56), having also taken the most in the Premier League (67).

Frank Lampard (43), Mohamed Salah (35), Harry Kane (33), Steven Gerrard (32), Mark Noble (28), Sergio Agüero (27) and Jamie Vardy (27) follow Shearer in the Premier League penalty goal rankings. Bruno Fernandes isn’t far off that list now, scoring his 25th Premier League penalty on 1 March 2026 for Man Utd vs Crystal Palace.

Only three players have missed at least 10 penalties in the Premier League: Alan Shearer (11), Wayne Rooney (11) and Teddy Sheringham (10).

On 30 November 2024 against Wolves, Bournemouth’s Justin Kluivert became the first player in Premier League history to score a hat-trick of penalties in a single match, with teammate Evanilson also becoming the first player to win three penalties in the same match.

Aleksandar Mitrovic missed four of the eight penalties that he took for Fulham in the 2022-23 Premier League season, becoming the first player to ever miss as many as four penalties in a single EPL campaign.

Middlesbrough’s diminutive Brazilian Juninho may have been one of the most popular players in the club’s history, but he wasn’t any good at penalties. A shout for one of the worst penalty-takers of all time in the competition, no player in Premier League history has taken as many as he has (four) without scoring one. Paul Merson (three) and Mike Newell came close, though (three).

Worst Premier League Penalty Takers

Juan Pablo Ángel: 50.0% scored (5/10)
Steed Malbranque: 60.0% scored (6/10)
Dwight Yorke: 60.0% scored (6/10)
Kevin Phillips: 61.1% scored (11/18)
Aleksandar Mitrovic: 61.5% scored (8/13)
Wilfried Zaha: 63.6% scored (7/11)
Paul Pogba: 63.6% scored (7/11)
Michael Owen: 66.7% scored (14/21)
Christian Benteke: 66.7% scored (10/15)
Wayne Rooney: 67.6% scored (23/34)
Teddy Sheringham: 67.7% scored (21/31)
Riyad Mahrez: 68.4% scored (13/19)
Jonathan Walters: 68.8% scored (11/16)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang: 69.2% scored (9/13)
Jermain Defoe: 70.0% scored (14/20)
Romelu Lukaku: 70.0% scored (7/10)

Only including players with 10+ penalties taken in the Premier League.

Juan Pablo Ángel is the worst penalty taker in Premier League history (10+ attempts). He only scored half (five) of his 10 penalties for Aston Villa between October 2001 and October 2006.

The Colombian striker scored four of his first five, but then missed four of his final five – two of those came in the same game against Fulham in February 2005, when he had two penalties saved by Edwin van der Sar in the space of just five minutes and 44 seconds. Ángel had already put his side into a 55th-minute lead at Craven Cottage, but was made to pay for his two misses, as Lee Clark scored an equaliser in injury time for the Whites.

Steed Malbranque and Dwight Yorke both missed four of the 10 penalties that they took in the Premier League, while Kevin Phillips only scored 61% of his penalties in the competition (11/18). Man Utd fans saw Paul Pogba miss four of the 11 penalties he took for the club in the Premier League.

Of 33 players to have taken at least 20 penalties in the Premier League, Michael Owen has the worst success rate from the penalty spot, scoring just 14 of his 21 spot-kicks in the top flight (66.7%), followed by Wayne Rooney (67.6%).

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Brighton & Hove Albion beat Liverpool 2-1 at the Amex Stadium on Saturday to boost their European prospects, while dealing another blow to Arne Slot’s side’s hopes of a top-four finish.

Fifth place is likely to also be a UEFA Champions League qualification spot again, but even that is far from certain for a Liverpool team now without a win in the Premier League in three games (D1 L2).

Brighton have won four of their last five league games (L1), as many as in their previous 18 matches in the competition (D7 L7), and they moved up to eighth place prior to Everton’s game with Chelsea later on Saturday, just six points off the top five.

A goal in either half from Danny Welbeck handed Brighton the points on a sunny day on the south coast, with Liverpool’s only positive moment of the game being Milos Kerkez’s equaliser.

Slot’s men looked tired compared to their hosts, having to manage injuries to key figures as well as playing this game just 62 hours after an energetic win over Galatasaray on Wednesday. This was their fifth loss following a Champions League fixture this season (W4 D1).

Liverpool were already without Alisson and Mohamed Salah after both suffered injuries in midweek, and there was another big blow just eight minutes into this game as top scorer Hugo Ekitiké was forced off following a challenge from former Red James Milner. Curtis Jones replaced the French striker, but it threw Liverpool off after a bright start, ultimately leading to the hosts taking the lead in the 14th minute.

Giorgi Mamardashvili, in for the injured Alisson, carelessly passed the ball out of play for a Brighton throw. The Seagulls took it quickly, with Ferdi Kadioglu crossing to the far post for Diego Gómez to head back across goal and Welbeck to rise above Ibrahima Konaté and head in the opener.

It was Welbeck’s 11th Premier League goal of the season, his outright most in a single campaign in the competition, while it was also Gómez’s first assist in the Premier League in his 44th appearance.

Former Brighton midfielder Alexis Mac Allister almost levelled things with a fine header from a Dominik Szoboszlai cross, but Bart Verbruggen got down well to his left to push it behind for a corner.

Liverpool did equalise on the half-hour mark, though, and as with Brighton’s goal, it was sloppy play at the back that led to it. A long ball from the visitors was headed back to his goalkeeper by Lewis Dunk, who hadn’t realised Kerkez had run in behind him. The Hungarian deftly lifted his finish over Verbruggen and into the net to level things.

It was just Liverpool’s fourth goal in the first half of an away Premier League game this season; only Sunderland (3) and Wolves (2) have scored fewer.

It took just 10 minutes into the second half for Brighton to get back in front, and it came from a sublime ball from Yankuba Minteh was diverted back across goal by Jack Hinshelwood, allowing Welbeck a simple tap in. A lengthy VAR review determined the former Manchester United and Arsenal striker was just about onside.

Gómez came close to making it three, but his free-kick just after the hour was well saved by Mamardashvili, while Verbruggen made an equally impressive stop from Jones just two minutes later.

Cody Gakpo also forced a save from the Brighton goalkeeper late on, but Liverpool very much looked like a team that had all their main attacking threats out injured as they failed to find a way back into the game.

It was Liverpool’s 10th Premier League loss of the season, the first time they have been beaten as often since 2015-16 (also 10).

Defeat leaves the Reds’ hopes of playing in the Champions League next season in serious threat, while Brighton can continue to dream of European qualification themselves.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Brighton vs Liverpool stats from their Premier League meeting at the Amex Stadium on Saturday.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well. 

Brighton vs Liverpool: Selected Post-Match Facts

• Liverpool have conceded 42 goals in the Premier League this season, already more than in each of their last two campaigns (41 in 2023-24 and 2024-25), last conceding more in 2022-23 (47).
• All four of Liverpool defender Milos Kerkez’s Premier League goals have come away from home, while since the start of last season only Daniel Muñoz (14), Rayan Aït-Nouri (13), Jurriën Timber (12) and Gabriel Magalhães (11) have more goal involvements in the competition among defenders than the Hungarian (10 – 4 goals, 6 assists).
• Virgil van Dijk made his 265th appearance for Liverpool in the Premier League, all of which have been starts; it’s the outright most appearances for an outfield player at a club while starting all of them in the competition’s history, overtaking Des Walker’s 264 appearances at Sheffield Wednesday.

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The post Brighton 2-1 Liverpool Stats: Welbeck Double Dents Reds’ Champions League Hopes appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Players With the Most Premier League Appearances

1. James Milner – 657*
2. Gareth Barry – 653
3. Ryan Giggs – 632
4. Frank Lampard – 609
5. David James – 572
6. Gary Speed – 535
7. Emile Heskey – 516
8. Mark Schwarzer – 514
9. Jamie Carragher – 508
10. Phil Neville – 505
11. Rio Ferdinand – 504
12. Steven Gerrard – 504
13. Sol Campbell – 503
14. Paul Scholes – 499
15. Jermain Defoe – 496
16. John Terry – 492
17. Wayne Rooney – 491
18. Ashley Young – 485
19. Michael Carrick – 481
20. Sylvain Distin – 469

*ongoing

James Milner 
657 Premier League Appearances 

James Milner broke Barry’s Premier League record on 21 February 2026 after starting for Brighton against Brentford.

He is the only active Premier League player to rank in the top 20 for most appearances in the competition.

If you think of some of the iconic Premier League moments since November 2002, there’s a good chance Milner has been a part of them.

He was in the Leeds United team who suffered a 5-0 defeat at the hands of Arsenal to start the downward spiral that saw them relegated from the top flight.

And after spells with Newcastle United and Aston Villa, he was part of the Manchester City side who won the title in dramatic “AGUERROoOoOoOoO!!!” fashion before winding up as part of Jürgen Klopp’s revolution at Anfield.

With his appearance on the opening day of the 2024-25 campaign versus Everton, Milner broke Giggs’ record (22 seasons) by playing a game in 23 different Premier League seasons. He then extended his record to 24 seasons by appearing as a sub against Fulham in Brighton’s 2025-26 opener.

Having now overtaken Barry, Milner’s next target could be to reach 700. He would need to remain in the Premier League next season to do so, however.

Gareth Barry 
653 Premier League Appearances 

When Gareth Barry came on as a 49th-minute substitute for Aston Villa on 2 May 1998 against Sheffield Wednesday, little did we know that over 20 years later he would still be plying his trade as a professional footballer.

Granted, the final two years of his career were played in the second tier, but by then Barry had already set the mark for most Premier League appearances at 653.

Barry’s Premier League debut may have come even earlier as he’d been named on the bench nearly a month prior against West Ham United but didn’t come on.

In fact, a Barry substitute appearance was a rare occurrence. He made 618 starts during his Premier League career, enough for a healthy 94.6% start rate. Unsurprisingly, Barry holds the record for the most minutes played by a Premier League player (54,439).

A solid and dependable midfielder, who made 53 appearances for England, Barry christened his 600th Premier League outing with a strike for Everton against Arsenal – the 52nd league goal of his career.

One final goal would follow against Manchester United, the side he lost more to (24 times) than any other during his Premier League career before an injury derailed his 2017-18 season, ending in West Brom’s relegation to the Championship.

Ryan Giggs 
632 Premier League Appearances 

Ryan Giggs made his league bow for Manchester United the season before the Premier League’s inaugural campaign, so it’s no surprise the winger ranks highly when it comes to overall appearances in the history of the competition. It’s even less surprising that Giggs has more assists (162) than anyone else, 43 clear of his nearest rival, Kevin De Bruyne.

Despite scoring 109 goals during his Premier League career, Giggs never netted a hat-trick in his 632 appearances even though he did manage 11 braces.

He only needed five appearances to net his first goal in the competition but failed to find the back of the net in his last 20.

Having won 13 Premier League titles with Manchester United during his career, Giggs has comfortably won more games than any other player in Premier League history (407).

Frank Lampard 
609 Premier League Appearances 

Frank Lampard came closest to matching Giggs’ record for the most wins in the Premier League (349), the first coming on his debut on 31 January 1996 as he made an 80th-minute substitute appearance against Coventry City for West Ham.

A broken leg in the 1996-97 season delayed his breakthrough, but he returned in emphatic fashion the following campaign, scoring on the opening day barely a minute after coming on as a substitute against Barnsley.

It would be the first of 177 goals Lampard scored in the Premier League for West Ham United, Chelsea and Manchester City, including one in his final appearance against Southampton on the last day of 2014-15.

A strike earlier in the season against former club Chelsea also produced possibly the greatest ‘muted’ goal celebration in Premier League history.

David James 
572 Premier League Appearances 

Being the highest-ranked goalkeeper on this list might go some way to reducing the disappointment of not being the keeper with the most clean sheets in Premier League history; only Petr Cech (202) is ahead of David James (169).

James’ first Premier League appearance, his debut for Liverpool, came on the opening weekend of the inaugural season following his transfer from Watford, starting against Nottingham Forest in the first ever Super Sunday match shown on Sky Sports.

Unfortunately, this also makes him the first goalkeeper to concede a goal in a live televised Premier League match, with Teddy Sheringham putting the only goal of the game past him.

This was the first of 665 goals he would concede in the Premier League for the Reds, Aston Villa, West Ham United, Manchester City and Portsmouth, which is also a record among goalkeepers in the competition.

For a while, James did hold the record for the most appearances in the Premier League before being overtaken by the four players above.

He also achieved the unusual feat of appearing in the competition as both a goalkeeper and an outfield player, having been thrown on up front by Stuart Pearce as Manchester City chased down potential European qualification on the final day of the 2004-05 season.

They fell short following a 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough, James unable to make an impact.

Gary Speed 
535 Premier League Appearances 

James beat the record previously held by the late Gary Speed, for whom goals were plenty during his career but they probably came no sweeter than on 20 November 1996.

A boyhood Everton fan, his dream of playing for the club was realised when he moved to Goodison Park at the start of that season, before scoring the equaliser in the Merseyside derby in front of the Kop. The only hat-trick of his Premier League career also came while wearing his beloved blue in a 7-1 mauling of Southampton.

But to talk about goals misses so much of what made Speed a player still remembered fondly by many fans and former teammates from Leeds United, Everton, Newcastle United and Bolton Wanderers. A life gone far too soon following his death at the age of 42.

Emile Heskey 
516 Premier League Appearances 

The first out-and-out forward on the list, Emile Heskey might be seventh when it comes to number of appearances in the Premier League, but his haul of 110 is ‘only’ good enough for 27th on the list of all-time Premier League top goalscorers.

But where the former Leicester City, Liverpool, Birmingham City, Wigan Athletic and Aston Villa star proved his worth was by being one of the most unselfish players on the field. Making decoy runs, holding up the ball for others and providing a fair share of assists (53) ensured he won a place in the hearts of fans and teammates alike.

None more so than Michael Owen, who saw his golden years – culminating in the 2001 Ballon d’Or – heavily supported by his Liverpool (and England) teammate Heskey, with the pair scoring 30 Premier League goals between them during the 2000-2001 season, as well as combining as part of England’s famous 5-1 triumph over Germany when, yes, even Heskey scored. 

Mark Schwarzer 
514 Premier League Appearances 

Australian goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer is the only player in the history of the Premier League to have racked up 200 defeats (he suffered 200 exactly). With 145 draws to his name as well (54 of which were 0-0), it means Schwarzer left a Premier League stadium without winning 67.1% of the time.

All bar 10 of his appearances came for Middlesbrough and Fulham as he became the first non-British player to make over 500 appearances in the Premier League. He was part of two title-winning squads in back-to-back seasons (Chelsea and Leicester City), but he didn’t play enough games to qualify automatically for a medal.

Jamie Carragher 
508 Premier League Appearances 

Liverpool’s all-time leading appearance maker in the Premier League, Jamie Carragher made his debut for the club when Roy Evans was in charge at Anfield, before being part of their success under Gerard Houllier and Rafa Benítez.

Although the Premier League title eluded him, Carragher’s mantlepiece is loaded with a UEFA Champions League winner’s medal, as well as three FA Cup triumphs. 

Famously, Carragher only scored three EPL goals for Liverpool during his career but did manage to turn the ball into the back of his own net on seven occasions – joint second-most in the competition’s history. You can read more about Carragher’s own-goal exploits here, as well as finding out who the overall record holder is (a clue: he played 431 times in the Premier League). 

Phil Neville 
505 Premier League Appearances 

In a game of Top Trumps between the Neville brothers, this would be one section where Phil comfortably comes out on top having made 105 more appearances in the Premier League than Gary Neville.

He also has the advantage when it comes to goals (Phil’s nine to Gary’s five, what a way to make a living), although assists do fall in Gary’s favour (35 to 25), as well as Premier League winner’s medals (eight to six). 

Phil’s transfer to Everton ahead of the 2005-06 season led to many highlights, with the brothers refusing to engage with each other in the tunnel when both captaining their sides in the 4-4 draw at Old Trafford in 2012 that proved pivotal in deciding the title race.

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Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is enjoying his most impactful Premier League season, justifying his decision to leave Chelsea for Everton in the summer.

With eight matches still to play in 2025-26, the English midfielder has already scored double the number of goals (six) than he’d managed in three previous top-flight campaigns with Leicester City and Chelsea combined (three), with his three assists also a season-high tally.

Most importantly, the midfielder found a club to give him opportunities to show his quality.

Working with one of the most experienced Premier League managers has helped. Taking charge of 746 Premier League games, a tally behind only Arsène Wenger (828) and Alex Ferguson (810), David Moyes has worked with his fair share of players in the competition.

Speaking exclusively to Opta Analyst, Dewsbury-Hall revealed he already feels like he’s benefitted from working with Moyes, despite having spent less than a season on Merseyside.

“He has given me a lot of freedom to play on the pitch. I don’t really feel like I’m restricted to one thing. I can drop deep and collect the ball and drive from deep, but I can also be in and around the box, trying to get into the box to score and create chances.

“I just feel like he’s given me that confidence and belief to trust in my abilities. It’s helping my all-round game in terms of attack and defence. I want to be that all-round midfielder, and I think the way that we play contributes to that.”

Dewsbury-Hall’s move to Everton has worked out for both parties. In their first season at the new Hill Dickinson Stadium, there is a sense of revitalisation at the club. No longer are Everton nervously looking downwards at the relegation zone, but they are focused on securing a place in Europe.

Everton have taken 43 points from 30 games this season. That’s the club’s best tally at this stage of a campaign since 2020-21, while it’s just the third time in 12 seasons that they’ve surpassed the ‘magic’ 40-point mark this early in a campaign. Two more wins will see them better their final points total (48) in both 2023-24 and 2024-25.

Dewsbury-Hall has played a key role in their improvement this season. He leads the team for Premier League goal involvements (9), while only two Everton players are above him for chances created (27) and expected assists (4.1) in the competition.

Playing further up the pitch has helped. After spending the majority of his minutes at Chelsea in a deep-lying midfield role last season, Moyes has played Dewsbury-Hall centrally behind the lone striker, a position he’s enjoying.

“I’ve played as a 10 more often this season and I’m enjoying it a lot. I think I can offer a lot in that position. I can create chances and score goals, but I’m a player that likes to be involved in the game as much as possible. That’s when I’m playing my best football – the fact that I can get the ball, get the team ticking, but then also be dangerous in areas where I have to be.”

He added: “You maybe have periods of play when you’re not touching the ball as much, and my skill-set definitely suits being in the middle more.”

Everton have spent longer out of possession than most Premier League sides this season, so having players who work just as hard off the ball is crucial to any success.

Only Wolves, West Ham and Burnley have averaged a lower possession share than Everton (43.7%) in the Premier League this season, and last weekend’s game at Arsenal saw Moyes’ side spend large spells of the game without the ball.

Defeat at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday was harsh on Everton, who’d given Arsenal one of their toughest matches of the season. Before Viktor Gyökeres’ 89th-minute goal, Everton had totalled a higher xG than their opponents (1.12 vs 0.75) and largely restricted the Gunners to shots from range.

To end on the losing side was particularly harsh on Dewsbury-Hall, who worked tirelessly out of possession, running further than any other player on the pitch (11.59km).

It was the 14th occasion this season that the midfielder had covered the most ground in a Premier League game for the Toffees, meaning he’s topped the team rankings for distance run in nearly two thirds of his starts in 2025-26 (64%).

With Arsenal dominating possession (65%), Everton were forced to work hard off the ball, and Dewsbury-Hall was key to pressurising opposition players. He recorded 97 pressures, of which 78 were deemed high pressures (applied within 0-2 metres of the opposition player in possession) – only Iliman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye tallied more.

Overall, no Everton player has applied more pressures on opponents in possession than Dewsbury-Hall in the Premier League this season (1,594) and he’s one of only three of their players totalling over 1,000 high pressures (1,010).

Pressuring opponents and winning the ball back high up the pitch is a team trait that Everton have become well known for since Moyes came back as manager in January 2025.

In 2025-26, only Manchester City (8.5) and Brighton (8.4) average more high turnovers – defined as possessions that start in open play and begin 40m or less from the opponent’s goal – per game than Everton (7.7) in the Premier League.

“[Moyes] is a bit more like: let’s get the win, let’s be aggressive, let’s play forward and stuff like that, and maybe not have the ball as much as [Enzo] Maresca did [at Chelsea last season].”

This weekend will see Dewsbury-Hall come up against his former club, where he struggled to find playing time in the Premier League thanks to Chelsea having one of the biggest squads in the English top flight.

He was one of 39 players to make a competitive appearance for Chelsea last season, with the Blues using more players than any other Premier League club. Dewsbury-Hall is now enjoying his football at a club with a tighter-knit squad, making it easier to build familiarity with teammates.

Everton have used just 22 different players in the Premier League this season, fewer than every other team in the competition, while only Nottingham Forest (46) and Crystal Palace (48) have made fewer changes to their starting XI in total across 2025-26.

“It’s good, the fact that we’ve got a smaller squad, so I’m used to playing with similar players. The more you play with them, the more comfortable you get with each other’s traits, so it’s definitely a positive.”

Now 27, moving to Everton has given Dewsbury-Hall the opportunity of much-needed playing time in what could be considered his peak years as a professional.

He played just 8% of possible Premier League minutes for Chelsea last season. That’s increased to 71% this season at Everton, with only a suspension in September and a thigh injury – suffered early on in the game against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in mid-December – keeping him out of the side.

Most of Dewsbury-Hall’s minutes at Chelsea last season came in their successful UEFA Conference League campaign (72.2%, including qualifying rounds), including a substitute appearance in the 4-1 final victory over Real Betis.

That taste of European glory has provided him with something he wants to experience again, and he believes Everton can sneak into the European spots in the final weeks of the campaign.

“It would mean an awful lot [qualifying for Europe]. I’ve spoken to a lot of players who have been here for many years, and since the summer when I signed, I’ve seen the fans, the fanbase and the atmosphere. It is a club that’s built for Europe.

“It’s about us now taking that responsibility and saying: the stepping stones are there, it’s about taking it on.”

With the performance of English clubs in Europe this season so strong, it’s near certain that the Premier League will be awarded an extra position into the UEFA Champions League next season, with fifth place enough to secure a spot.

Given Arsenal or Manchester City will win the League Cup and there is a strong chance the FA Cup winner will come from the Premier League’s top seven, it’s likely that a top-eight finish will be enough for European football next season.

The latest simulations by the Opta supercomputer project Everton finishing inside the top eight of the Premier League 32.3% of the time. If they do manage that, it would give Toffees fans a taste of European action for the first time since 2017-18, when they played in the Europa League group stage.

Such is the congestion in the middle of the Premier League table with eight matchdays remaining – just 10 points separate 14th place Crystal Palace and Liverpool in fifth – that a single result can dramatically change the likelihood of European football. A win over Chelsea, which would close the gap to the London club to just two points, would be a great way to start the run-in.

Dewsbury-Hall has already played a key part in Everton’s improvement this season. Now his influence will be needed to give the fans what he believes they deserve: European football in 2026-27.

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The post Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Exclusive Interview: Everton Are ‘A Club That’s Built for Europe’ appeared first on Opta Analyst.

The EFL Cup final is upon us, and with it, the first chance of the 2025-26 season to win some silverware.

This game – and the competition as a whole – is always a sidenote to the rest of the season and the bigger, more important trophies on offer in the coming months. However, although that remains the case this time around, there is added importance to this game. This EFL Cup final feels significant.

Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, winners of this competition on four occasions, face Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who have won little but are hungry to start doing so. They want this to be the first of many more trophies in the coming years.

So, will this be the day the floodgates open for Arsenal, or will City reassert their dominance at the top of the English game (at least until Arsenal win the Premier League, as is looking increasingly certain)?

We’ve picked out five key elements of Sunday’s game that could decide where the EFL Cup final is won and lost.

Will City’s Muscle Memory Be Enough?

If there’s one thing we’ve all seen plenty of in the last decade, it’s Manchester City players lifting shiny trophies over their heads.

Since Guardiola was appointed in 2016, City have won six Premier League titles, two FA Cups, four League Cups, a Champions League, a UEFA Super Cup and a FIFA Club World Cup.

Arsenal have not been as synonymous with trophy lifting under Arteta, with just one FA Cup win (2019-20) since his arrival in 2019 (no, we’re not counting Community Shields for either team). However, Arsenal are aiming to change all that, still with a possibility of claiming as many as four trophies this season.

The first of their targets is the League Cup, which they haven’t won since 1993, a remarkable 33 years ago. This is only their fourth League Cup final since then, but they have lost each of the previous three: to Chelsea in 2006-07, Birmingham City in 2010-11, and Man City in 2017-18.

They will come up against the team who have comfortably been the most dominant in this competition in recent years. City won six out of eight editions of the League Cup between 2013-14 and 2020-21.

Does that have any bearing on the two current teams? There does seem to be a strange aura with certain clubs in certain competitions, regardless of who is wearing the shirt. Just look at Real Madrid and their relentless winning in the Champions League, which City know about all too well after the last two weeks.

The Premier League table will tell you Arsenal have been the better team this season, but cup finals can do strange things to people. Case in point: City and their shock FA Cup final defeat to Crystal Palace last year.

Despite that setback, Guardiola has significantly more experience of guiding his team successfully through finals than Arteta, which could be key here.

DS

Has Haaland Rediscovered His Goalscoring Touch Just in Time?

After an excellent start to 2025-26, Erling Haaland looked more than a little lost for a good few weeks.

There was a time when it looked like he might break his own Premier League goalscoring record, having scored 19 goals in the competition by Christmas. City’s reliance on him appeared to be a strength rather than a weakness, simply because he scored so reliably.

But, fairly predictably, as his goals dried up, City’s season stuttered. Since Christmas, the Norwegian has scored only one non-penalty Premier League goal – the third in a 3-0 win over Fulham in February.

City are now as good as out of the title race, very much actually out of the Champions League, and the two domestic cup competitions are their only remaining realistic chances of silverware this season.

Concerningly, though, it wasn’t just Haaland’s goals that stopped flowing. He had struggled badly for chances, looking leggy and off the pace for weeks, even months, on end. He had at least five shots in 11 of his first 28 appearances of the season in all competitions, but then failed to do so even once in his 14 games up to and including the 1-1 draw at West Ham last weekend that all but ended City’s title hopes.

Then, in midweek, he had seven shots in just 56 minutes on the pitch in the defeat to Real Madrid. He racked up 1.14 expected goals all on his own – his highest non-penalty xG in a game since November – and five shots on target, which was more than he has had in any game in any competition all season. And – most crucially – he scored a goal.

This was a fairly unique occasion in that City had to go for it. They were three goals down from the first leg and had to go all-out attack. That may have contributed to him having quite so many chances.

They won’t do that on Sunday, when a single-goal victory would be enough. Stopping Arsenal scoring will be a bigger concern this time around.

But even if it is only one game, his performance will give City some hope that he might be about to hit some form, and could add to his run of scoring in each of his last three games against Arsenal. However, he’s never scored in six appearances at Wembley for City. Can he build on his midweek goal and end that run on Sunday?

AT

How Big a Role Will Depth of Quality Play?

Given their riches and vast spending over the best part of two decades, it’s a curious situation when City’s squad depth is being doubted, but that is precisely the world in which we find ourselves.

That’s because Arsenal have built a squad capable of withstanding just about any crisis of injuries or form. Whatever problem they face, Arteta has a solution at his disposal. That is a big part of the reason they are still in with a chance of winning all four major competitions this season.

The depth of quality in their squad means they spread their goals around the team impressively. While City rely heavily on Haaland for goals, Arsenal can score from more or less anywhere. Haaland has scored 29.1% of City’s goals in all competitions, while for Arsenal, Viktor Gyökeres has scored the highest proportion (15.1%). Arsenal have 12 players who have scored at least four goals this season, compared to seven for City.

On a related note, substitutes have scored more goals (11) and provided more assists (10) for Arsenal than any other team in Premier League games this season. City rank bottom of the Premier League for goal contributions by substitutes (two).

None of this is to say that City lack depth or quality. Clearly, they have one of the best squads in world football. They wouldn’t be second in the Premier League and in the final of the EFL Cup if that wasn’t the case.

But they also haven’t made the most of their resources this season. They have suffered plenty of injury problems, while many of their attacking players, such as Haaland and Phil Foden, have gone through extreme peaks and troughs of form.

They could do with some of their other players stepping up on Sunday, or Arsenal’s depth may prove decisive.

AT

Eze the Gambreaker?

It’s been an encouraging few weeks for Eberechi Eze, who’s gone from barely having a bit-part role in Arsenal’s priority competitions to being a regular starter.

His renaissance was fittingly capped on Tuesday by a stunning long-range strike against Bayer Leverkusen, putting Arsenal ahead on the night and on aggregate as they sealed progress to the Champions League quarter-finals.

That goal and his performance stoked numerous questions in the post-match press conference of Arteta, who spoke glowingly of Eze, and particularly his improvement off the ball.

It’s hardly rocket science to suggest that could be relevant against a Guardiola team, but the perception Eze has developed without the ball since joining Arsenal ought to only make him even more valuable to Arteta because we know what he’s capable of in possession.

Crucially, it’s what he can do on the ball that marks him out as potentially decisive this weekend – in fact, he’s already shown as much against City this season.

Eze came off the bench in their September Premier League meeting with City 1-0 up at the Emirates Stadium, and he played a vital role for the Gunners. He showed for the ball, helped Arsenal progress play with his ability both on the half turn and under pressure, and his technical talents meant he was a broad attacking threat.

He forced Gianluigi Donnarumma into one important stop, and it was Eze’s gorgeous ball over the top that found Gabriel Martinelli for his stoppage-time equaliser.

City spent 22% of that game in a low block after Haaland’s early opener, a considerable increase from their season average of 14%, but Eze eventually unlocked them.

It would surprise no one if Sunday’s final is similarly tight and cagey, and it’s games such as these where mavericks like Eze can come to the fore with his dual threat of creative ingenuity and long-range shooting ability.

RB

Do Arsenal Have a Hold Over City?

While City might be a big part of the reason Arsenal have not won anything in the last few seasons, that isn’t the direct consequence of results in matches between the teams. In fact, Arsenal have had the better of those games.

Arteta’s side are unbeaten in their last six meetings with City in all competitions, winning two and drawing four. To prove just how much of a momentum shift that is, Arsenal had lost 15 of their previous 16 against them (W1).

Arsenal did require late equalisers in two of those games, including in the 1-1 draw at the Emirates in September. But at the Emirates last season, City only rescued a point in the 98th minute, despite playing more than half the game against 10 men following Leandro Trossard’s sending off.

And crucially, Arsenal did actually win two of them: a 1-0 win in October 2023 and a 5-1 trouncing in February last year (though the stats suggest City might feel slightly aggrieved to have lost so resoundingly). Arsenal’s recent record against City could provide a huge psychological boost.

It isn’t just against City that they have done well; Arteta has built a team that reliably gets good results against the best teams. In a ‘big-six’ mini league since the start of 2022-23 (Premier League games only), Arsenal have at least 17 more points than any other team (City 59).

Their failure to win trophies in recent years has largely been because they have slipped up against mid-table teams. That fact is completely irrelevant here, though, where they need just one big performance against one big team to secure their first trophy in six years.

AT

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The post Arsenal vs Man City: Five Key Subplots That Could Decide the EFL Cup Final appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Arsenal vs Man City: The Key Stats

• Premier League leaders Arsenal are the favourites to win the EFL Cup, given a 51.9% chance to win inside 90 minutes by the Opta supecomputer.
• Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Manchester City in all competitions.
• Only Liverpool (10) have won the EFL Cup on more occasions than Man City (nine).

It’s not an overexaggeration to suggest the hopes for Manchester City’s season rest on the next month.

After crashing out of the UEFA Champions League in the week with a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid sealing a 5-1 aggregate defeat, City take on Arsenal in the EFL Cup final on Sunday.

This showdown at Wembley between Pep Guardiola and his former assistant Mikel Arteta sees second take on first in the Premier League, but with City dropping points in their last two top-flight outings, the Gunners hold a nine-point advantage.

The only team to win a Premier League title having ended the night 9+ points behind the team in first after 30 or more games are City themselves in 2013-14 (nine points behind top on 20 April after 33 games).

And on the other side of the international break, City then take on Liverpool in the FA Cup quarter-finals before facing Chelsea and Arsenal in the league.

Suffice to say, it’s a big old month. Last season was the first campaign at City in which Guardiola had failed to lead them to a major trophy. If the next four games don’t go well, then it could mean he goes back-to-back campaigns without a major honour for the first time in his career.

It’s also a mighty month for Arsenal and Arteta. It all starts on Sunday, as the apprentice looks to get one over his former master.

Arteta has won just one trophy at Arsenal, with the Gunners beating Chelsea 2-1 behind closed doors in the 2020 FA Cup final. Since then, Guardiola has led City to four league titles, one FA Cup, one EFL Cup and a Champions League trophy.

But after years of being the nearly-men, it does seem like this could be Arsenal’s time. If they are to go on and win their first Premier League title since 2004, and possibly even more trophies, then getting that first trophy in the cabinet is a vital step.

Arsenal are looking to win the EFL Cup for the third time, after 1987 and 1993. However, the Gunners have lost more League Cup finals than any other side (six), most recently in 2018 against Guardiola’s Man City.

City have won eight of their nine League Cup finals, with only Liverpool winning the competition more often (10). They have won each of their last seven League Cup finals, since a loss to Wolves in 1974.

However, there have been chinks in their armour in recent showpiece games. They’ve lost their last two major finals, both in the FA Cup in 2024 (vs Manchester United) and 2025 (vs Crystal Palace). They have never previously lost three consecutive major final appearances.

Arsenal, meanwhile, ground out a second-leg semi-final win over Chelsea (triumphing 4-2 on aggregate after a 1-0 win on the night) to reach the final. Once Arteta has reached Wembley, he’s always converted. The Spaniard has never lost there with Arsenal as either a player (W3 D1) or a manager (W2 D2), going on to win on penalties after all three of those draws.

One bright mark for City following their loss to Madrid was Erling Haaland snapping his scoreless streak.

Haaland has scored in each of his last three games against Arsenal in all competitions. However, he has never scored in six appearances at Wembley so far in his City career.

Rayan Cherki is likely to be among the City attackers aiming to supply Haaland with chances. The Frenchman has been involved in four goals in his four EFL Cup appearances (three goals, one assist), averaging a goal involvement once every 47 minutes in the competition.

On the other side, Gabriel Jesus is unlikely to start, but will be hoping he at least comes on to feature and have a say against his former club.

Jesus played in City’s 3-0 win over Arsenal in the 2018 final. If he plays for Arsenal in this game, he would be the first player to have played for both sides in meeting between two clubs in EFL Cup finals.

Eberechi Eze, who netted a stunner in Arsenal’s Champions League win over Bayer Leverkusen in midweek, scored Palace’s winner against Manchester City in the 2025 FA Cup final.

He could become the third player to score against an opponent in both an EFL Cup and an FA Cup final after Roberto Di Matteo (vs Middlesbrough) and Didier Drogba (vs Liverpool).

Arsenal vs Man City Head-to-Head

Arteta has won only three of his 16 meetings with Guardiola, who has won all four of his EFL Cup finals in charge, doing so in four consecutive seasons between 2017-18 and 2020-21. No manager has ever won the trophy five times.

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six meetings with City in all competitions (W2 D4), having lost 15 of their previous 16 against them (W1).

But City have won their last four League Cup meetings with Arsenal by an aggregate score of 11-1. Their last defeat to the Gunners came in the third round in 2004-05 (1-2).

Arsenal have lost just one of their five meetings with City at Wembley (W3 D1), though that was in the 2018 League Cup final (0-3).

Only two teams, meanwhile, have beaten the Gunners in two major cup finals before – Newcastle United (1932 FA Cup, 1952 FA Cup) and Leeds United (1968 League Cup, 1972 FA Cup).

Arsenal vs Man City Prediction

The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal to come out on top, with the Gunners winning 51.9% of pre-match simulations. Man City, meanwhile, won the match in 24.8% of the model’s 10,000 sims. The draw, which would send the game to extra-time and potentially penalties, happened in 23.3% of scenarios.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Sunday at Wembley, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each side.

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The post Arsenal vs Man City Prediction: Master and Apprentice Go Head-to-Head in EFL Cup Final appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Newcastle vs Sunderland: The Key Stats

• Newcastle United are pegged as favourites for this match, with Eddie Howe’s side taking all three points in 60.8% of the pre-match simulations.
• The Magpies are, however, winless in their last five home matches against Sunderland (D2 L3) ahead of what will be their first meeting at St. James’ Park since 2016.
• Following their 1-0 win at Leeds earlier this month, Sunderland are aiming to pick up consecutive away victories in the Premier League for the first time since May 2014.

In football, there are some defeats that simply cost three points, and then there are defeats that carry the potential to derail a team’s entire season.

Newcastle United and Eddie Howe experienced the latter on Wednesday night as they were comprehensively eliminated from the Champions League round of 16 by Barcelona.

The Magpies were dismantled 7-2 in the second leg at the Camp Nou, completing an 8-3 aggregate defeat that brought their European campaign to a heavy end.

Howe’s side must now quickly shift focus to the Premier League, where the race for European qualification is heating up. Newcastle currently sit ninth, trailing fifth-placed Liverpool by seven points with eight matches remaining.

However, if they were hoping for a gentler return to domestic action, Sunday’s fixture offers little relief.

Newcastle are winless in their last five Premier League home Tyne-Wear derbies (D2 L3), with this weekend marking the first at St. James’ Park since a 1-1 draw in March 2016.

Goals have also been scarce for the Magpies in this fixture. They have scored just once across their last six league meetings with Sunderland, while their last clean sheet came in August 2011.

Sunderland, meanwhile, can draw confidence from their 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture back in December.

But that game, decided by a Nick Woltemade own goal, was hardly a showcase of attacking quality. The match produced just 0.54 combined expected goals (xG) from 11 shots – 0.30 xG from Sunderland’s five attempts and 0.24 xG from Newcastle’s six.

This is the second-lowest combined xG in a Premier League match on record, behind only Bournemouth vs Burnley in December 2019 (0.30 xG), and the lowest combined shot total in a match since the start of the 2023-24 season.

Régis Le Bris’ side come into this match on the back of a 1-0 defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion, leaving them 13th in the table, with an outside chance of pushing toward the European places.

Sunderland won their last away match 1-0 at Leeds United and will be looking to secure consecutive away top-flight victories for the first time since May 2014, while they last did so without conceding in October 1999.

Despite their European disappointment, Newcastle may still take belief from their recent league form. Anthony Gordon scored the only goal in a 1-0 win at Chelsea last time out, following their late 2-1 victory over Manchester United.

The Magpies have not recorded a 100% winning month in the Premier League (minimum three matches) since November 2018, when they won all three of their fixtures.

Newcastle’s task could be complicated by Sunderland’s resilience this season. Only Brighton (eight – W3 D5) have avoided defeat more often after conceding the opening goal than the Black Cats (seven – W4 D3).

Sunderland are also one of three Premier League teams yet to lose when scoring first this season (W6 D4), along with Manchester United (W12 D6) and Nottingham Forest (W5 D2).

Furthermore, only Aston Villa (19) have won more points from losing positions than Sunderland (16), while only West Ham (20) have dropped more points from winning positions than the Magpies (19).

Howe may also feel a sense of personal motivation for this match. Following the 1-0 defeat in the reverse fixture, he could become the first Newcastle manager to lose both of his first two league Tyne-Wear derbies.

Le Bris, meanwhile, has a chance to become just the second Sunderland boss to win his first two league derbies against Newcastle after Gus Poyet did so 2013-14.

Newcastle vs Sunderland Head-to-Head

Newcastle have failed to win each of their last five matches against Sunderland at St. James’ Park (D2 L3) and will be hoping for a much-needed turn in fortunes, while the Black Cats are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League matches against Newcastle.

Le Bris’ side have also won seven of the last eight meetings between these two sides, marking the joint-longest unbeaten run either side has enjoyed in the history of the fixture, equalling Newcastle’s run of 10 between 1985 and 1997.

The Magpies are also searching for their first Premier League victory over Sunderland since a 1-0 victory at the Stadium of Light in August 2011.

Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction

Home advantage is set to play a major role in Sunday’s Tyne-Wear derby, with Newcastle pegged as favourites to take all three points according to the Opta supercomputer.

The Magpies won 60.8% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while Sunderland prevailed just 18.6% of the time. Meanwhile, a draw emerged as the outcome in 20.6% of the simulations.

Newcastle vs Sunderland Predicted Lineups

Newcastle United: Aaron Ramsdale, Tino Livramento, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall, Joe Willock, Joelinton, Nick Woltemade, Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon.

Head coach: Eddie Howe

Sunderland: Melker Ellborg, Luke O’Nien, Lutsharel Geertruida, Omar Alderete, Trai Hume, Noah Sadiki, Granit Xhaka, Chris Rigg, Habib Diarra, Chemsdine Talbi, Brian Brobbey.

Head coach: Régis Le Bris

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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The post Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction: Can Either Rival Boost European Hopes With Tyne-Wear Derby Victory? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Everton vs Chelsea: The Key Stats

• Hosts Everton have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games against Chelsea (W5 D2), last going down 1-0 back in August 2022.
• Nonetheless, Chelsea have kept 12 clean sheets across the last 19 league meetings, including each of the last four.
• The Opta supercomputer found this one tough to call. Chelsea won 37.1% of its 10,000 simulations compared to 36.6% for the Toffees.

After suffering another three-goal defeat to European champions Paris Saint-Germain in midweek, Chelsea‘s 2025-26 campaign seems in danger of falling apart. 

Well beaten in both legs, the Blues sustained their joint-heaviest defeat in a two-legged UEFA Champions League tie as they were swept aside by PSG at Stamford Bridge, ultimately losing their last-16 clash 8-2 on aggregate.

Remarkably, Liam Rosenior’s side were still level after 73 minutes of last week’s first leg, but they trailed by five goals overall when PSG struck for a second time on Tuesday.

Still, with their pursuit of a place in next term’s competition and the FA Cup still left to play for, they can’t afford to spend too long reflecting on that result.

Sitting sixth in the Premier League after losing 1-0 at home to Newcastle last time out, Chelsea have lost two of their last three top-flight matches, as many defeats as in their previous 13, and they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of the last eight.

While fifth place should secure Champions League football, inconsistent Liverpool lie one point above them, with ailing Aston Villa just two further ahead, setting up an eight-game dash to the finish line.

So, after their 2-0 home win in December, Chelsea will be desperate to do a league double over Everton for the first time since 2017, strengthening their hand in the race for Europe and deflecting some of the scrutiny being faced by top-flight rookie Rosenior.

At the other end of the experience scale, Everton boss David Moyes has taken charge of 746 Premier League matches – a tally only bettered by Arsène Wenger (828) and Alex Ferguson (810) – and he’ll look to make that nous pay this weekend.

Last time out, his team narrowly lost to Arsenal, having held firm for almost 90 minutes before being thwarted by two late goals. Of course, that game will primarily be remembered for Max Dowman becoming the youngest scorer in Premier League history at 16 years and 73 days old.

From Everton’s perspective, defeat dealt a blow to their European aspirations, after back-to-back wins over Newcastle United and Burnley had raised hopes of a return to continental competition. 

Even so, there’s a strong chance the FA Cup winner will come from within the Premier League’s top seven, so a top-eight finish may prove enough to at least qualify for the Conference League.

Everton have already won 43 points from 30 games – the Merseyside club’s best tally at this stage since 2021 – while just two more wins will see them beat their final total (48) from the 2024-25 campaign.

Yet, on Saturday, they must try again to post consecutive Premier League victories at the Hill Dickinson Stadium for the very first time. This is the latest into a league campaign they’ve not won successive home games since April 2015.

Success would also close the deficit to Chelsea to two points, but Everton have failed to even score in a dozen of the clubs’ last 19 top-flight meetings – including all of the most recent four.

Set to face his former club, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is enjoying his best top-tier season; he leads Everton for Premier League goal involvements (nine), and sits third in terms of both chances created (27) and expected assists (4.1).

Despite his hat-trick at Wolves and another goal against Aston Villa, Cole Palmer remains something of an enigma, with João Pedro arguably proving Chelsea’s most consistent threat – particularly on the road.

Across all competitions, the Brazilian has been directly involved in eight goals in his last eight away appearances (seven goals, one assist); his tally of 11 for the season is already the most by any Chelsea player away from home in a single campaign since 2019-20 (Tammy Abraham, 12).

Elsewhere, Rosenior could recall defensive duo Malo Gusto and Benoît Badiashile – both of whom missed out against PSG due to illness – but captain Reece James has just been joined by Trevoh Chalobah on the visitors’ injury list.

Everton vs Chelsea Head-to-Head

Following their 2-0 win in December’s reverse fixture – when Palmer and Gusto both found the target – Chelsea are looking to do a Premier League double over Everton for the first time in nine years.

Across the last four league meetings, Chelsea have won three times and drawn once, racking up nine goals without reply.

However, Everton have won five and lost just one of their last eight top-flight home games against Chelsea.

Everton vs Chelsea Prediction

The Opta supercomputer struggled to split these two teams, giving Chelsea a slightly greater chance of victory. The visitors won 37.1% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Everton came out on top in fewer of Opta’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, but only just, their hopes of success rated at 36.6%.

That leaves a 26.3% chance of the points being shared, a result that would probably frustrate both sides.

Everton vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups

Everton: Jordan Pickford, Vitalii Mykolenko, Michael Keane, Jake O’Brien, James Garner, Idrissa Gueye, Tim Iroegbunam, Iliman Ndiaye, Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall, Dwight McNeil, Beto.

Head coach: David Moyes

Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Marc Cucurella, Tosin Adarabioyo, Wesley Fofana, Josh Acheampong, Moisés Caicedo, Andrey Santos, Alejandro Garnacho, Enzo Fernández, Cole Palmer, João Pedro.

Head coach: Liam Rosenior

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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After four years of Manchester City dominance, we finally have another name on the Premier League trophy. After their 5-1 win over Tottenham at the end of April, it’s Liverpool who are the champions of 2024-25.

It’s the club’s 20th English top-flight crown, pulling them level with rivals Manchester United for the most ever.

They weren’t the only English team to pick up a trophy in 2024-25, though. Spurs won the Europa League, Chelsea picked up the Conference League while domestically Crystal Palace won the FA Cup and Newcastle scooped up the League Cup.

Meanwhile, Chelsea are also the newly-crowned 2025 Club World Cup champions.

But when we factor in all trophies in history, where do these clubs rank among the most successful clubs in England?

For a game that venerates its own history so much, football has problems reconciling what should truly count when it comes to assessing the most successful clubs.

Do you go for raw figures? Or do you apply some sort of era filter, given that the game’s laws have changed so much? For instance, three of Newcastle’s four league titles came when goalkeepers could handle the ball up to the halfway line, while both of Preston’s league titles came before the penalty kick was introduced. Fair? Football is it? Those honours certainly count, but should they matter as much as a modern trophy, forged in the high-intensity cauldron of modern football?

Let’s investigate.

Readers should note that the myriad forms of ‘Super Cup’ honours have not been included in these gloried calculations as these are a) quasi-friendlies a lot of time, and b) aren’t open to most clubs.

And while you got a gold badge to wear on your shirt, we haven’t included the old format of the Club World Cup in these figures. We do, however, include the newly-expanded 32-team format that came into effect in 2025.

Please add on one honour for each of Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City if you deem the old format a worthy addition to this overall assessment of the most successful teams in English football history.

The competitions included here are the FA Cup (started 1871), the league championship (started 1888, reconstituted to the Premier League in 1992), the League Cup (started 1960), the European Cup (started 1955, rebranded as the Champions League in 1992), the UEFA Cup (started 1971, rebranded as the Europa League in 2009), the Conference League (started 2021), the expanded Club World Cup (started in 2025), the European Cup Winners’ Cup (started 1960, abolished 1999) and, perhaps controversially, the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup, which ran from 1955 to 1971 and is widely seen as the forerunner of the UEFA Cup. In regards to English football, Leeds United won it twice, Newcastle United and Arsenal once. It’s not recognised by UEFA as part of a club’s European record but FIFA do, and that’s good enough for us.

The All-Time Leaders

Let’s start with the headline figure, which is that Liverpool are on 47 major honours (20 league titles, eight FA Cups, 10 League Cups, six European Cups and three UEFA Cups), three clear of their eternal rivals Manchester United (44). The two sides are now level on English league titles (20 each) as it stands, but United are three behind Liverpool when it comes to the beacon of prestigiousness that is the European Cup/Champions League.

As well as winning the title in 2024-25, the Reds had a chance to extend their lead at the top in the 2025 EFL Cup final but lost out 2-1 to Newcastle United. The Magpies won their first major trophy since winning the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in 1968-69, while it’s the club’s first major domestic success since winning the FA Cup in 1954-55.

Chelsea’s victory in the 2025 Conference League final was not only their 26th major trophy, but also a slice of history. They are the first side in history to win each of the European Cup/Champions League, UEFA Cup/Europa League, Cup Winners’ Cup, and the Conference League. Just two months later they added trophy number 27 to their cabinet, beating PSG 3-0 in the 2025 Club World Cup final.

The other thing to note is that despite seemingly endless online debate about whether clubs like Man City (first major honour: the 1904 FA Cup) and Chelsea (first major honour: the 1954-55 league title) have “history”, the fact is they are the joint-fourth most successful teams in English footballing history, and are both narrowing that gap to Arsenal in third.

Ancient Lore

Football didn’t start in either 1992 or 1888, but you can draw arbitrary lines at any point if you’re looking to bolster or supress a club’s cachet.

As New Year’s Day 1900 dawned, the most successful league sides were Aston Villa (four title wins), Sunderland (three) and Preston North End (two). Villa added a fifth later in 1900 and a sixth in 1910 but have been champions of England only once since, in 1981, although that did allow them the opportunity to become European champions in 1982.

Other midlands sides of note include Nottingham Forest, who parlayed their single league title in 1978 to a pair of European Cup wins in 1979 and 1980, and Leicester City, who began the 2010s without having ever been champions of England or FA Cup winners, an issue they sorted out in 2016 and 2021, respectively.

But if we’re going to draw a dividing point, why not use the Second World War, which saw league football suspended for seven seasons, and, contrary to what a lot of 1992 deniers claim, was often used as a neat football history dividing point prior to the foundation of the Premier League.

The ‘Before The War’ table has Villa well clear on 12 honours, four ahead of Blackburn Rovers and then five sides on seven. Arsenal are in there, and can lay claim to being the most historically consistent side, given they are the only club in this list to regularly challenge for honours in the 21st century.

The decline of north-east football always deserves some considered thought, with all of Sunderland and Newcastle’s league titles coming before the war.

Sunderland, in 1936, remain the last champions of England to play in stripes, which contrasts England significantly with Italy, among other nations.

Gleaming Modernity

Manchester United fans may be interested to learn that if we start football from 1945 (the FA Cup was played in 1945-46 but league football didn’t resume until 1946-47), then they are still behind Liverpool for major trophies won (43 vs 41), because the Anfield side lose out on four league titles won before the war, while United only lose two leagues and the 1909 FA Cup.

Liverpool famously had to wait a long time before winning their first FA Cup in 1965, losing finals in 1914 – the last one held at Crystal Palace – and 1950. In 2022 at Wembley, Liverpool won their first FA Cup since the ‘Gerrard Final’ of 2006, and in doing so, they went joint-third with Chelsea and Spurs (eight) in the list, with only Arsenal (14) and United (13) ahead of them.

The truth is that no side has been able to permanently dominate English football, although Liverpool and Man Utd stand above all other clubs. The honours table since 1945 contains the same top five as the all-time one, albeit with Chelsea and Man City ahead of Arsenal, with Guardiola’s men moving above the Gunners thanks to their 2023-24 glory.

The only instruction to supporters is to make the most of every trophy and every big day out, because you never know when the ride is going to stop. Go back and tell a Preston fan in 1890, or a Sheffield United fan in 1898, or a West Brom fan in 1920, or a Huddersfield fan in 1926, or a Newcastle fan in 1927, or a Sheffield Wednesday fan in 1930, or a Sunderland fan in 1936, or a Wolves fan in 1959, or an Everton fan in 1987 or an Arsenal fan in 2004 that, guess what, it was the last top-flight league title your club is going to win for a long time, perhaps forever.

They simply won’t believe you because their team are the champions of England, and that’s not how it works.

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Most Premier League Games by Managers

Arsène Wenger –828 games
Sir Alex Ferguson –810 games
David Moyes – 746 games*
Harry Redknapp –641 games
Sam Allardyce – 541 games
Steve Bruce – 476 Games
Mark Hughes – 466 Games
Roy Hodgson – 416 Games
Pep Guardiola – 372 Games*
José Mourinho – 363 Games
Eddie Howe – 361 Games*
Rafael Benítez and Martin O’Neill – 359 Games

*ongoing

Arsène Wenger – 828 games

It is difficult to put into context just how extraordinary Arsène Wenger’s Premier League record of 828 matches in charge is. He managed all of those games at Arsenal, of course, over a period of nearly 22 years between October 1996 and May 2018 and that single-club longevity is unlikely to ever be matched. That’s not just because club owners are far more trigger-happy these days, but also because the Frenchman became synonymous with Arsenal over the course of his time there, and so removing him involved the tricky process of digging up the roots of much of what he’d built.

There were some Arsenal fans who thought Wenger’s reign had dragged on a little too long by the end, but looking back now, there is no question he was one of the Premier League’s all-time greats, with three title wins and the only ever unbeaten season. He personified footballing entertainment, overseeing 476 wins, 1,561 goals scored and a Premier League record 78 red cards with the Gunners.

Alex Ferguson – 810 games

Alex Ferguson retired more than a decade ago, yet he is still only 18 games off top spot in this list and his position in second place is secure… for now (more on that below).

Ferguson, who was actually Manchester United manager for almost six years before the Premier League even started, having been appointed in November 1986, built a Manchester United side that were so dominant for so much of his time in charge that he is miles clear of anyone else for wins (528) and goals scored (1,627), while his win rate of 65.2% and points per game of 2.16 are second only to Pep Guardiola – who has managed far fewer games – of all managers with at least 10 matches in charge.

United have spent 10-plus years since the Fergie era ended struggling to find a way back to the top of the league, having failed to win the title at all since he departed Old Trafford. Ferguson, of course, has at least eight more Premier League titles (13) than any other manager, with Guardiola his closest challenger on five. Nobody will ever come close to matching what Ferguson did.

David Moyes – 746 games*

David Moyes left West Ham having fallen just short of the 700-game mark at the end of 2023-24. However, now that he’s back for a second spell at Everton he can add to his total, and he did reach 700 games in the away game at Brighton on 25 January 2025.

Moyes’ managerial career hasn’t been anything like as decorated as those of Wenger or Ferguson – West Ham’s Europa Conference League triumph in 2023 was his first major trophy as a manager (sorry, the 2013 Community Shield doesn’t count) – and his total of 261 defeats is a Premier League record.

However, having managed Everton (twice), Man Utd, Sunderland and West Ham (twice) over a period of more than 20 years, arguably the biggest achievement of his career is that he has only been relegated once – at Sunderland. Moyes will now try to hunt down Wenger and Ferguson at the top of this list.

Harry Redknapp – 641 games

Harry Redknapp loves the south of England. In a career spanning 641 Premier League matches, he never managed a team north of London, with Tottenham the furthest he ventured. He did go as far north as Birmingham for a few months in 2017 but that time was spent in the Championship, and even that is counter-balanced with the nine years he spent on the south coast in the lower leagues with Bournemouth.

Redknapp got a reputation as a brilliant man-manager and wheeler-dealer – something he said he very much wasn’t – and he succeeded pretty much wherever he went. His greatest achievement was probably taking Spurs from bottom of the table following their worst ever start to a season to the Champions League quarter-finals in just a few seasons, but his sensational FA Cup win with Portsmouth deserves a mention as well.

Sam Allardyce – 541 games

A failed firefighting four-game stint in charge of Leeds at the end of the 2022-23 season might have Sam Allardyce’s last in the Premier League.

But the thing about Big Sam is that people always doubt him. He had doubters after he threw away his chance to manage England in 2016, but he has had four different Premier League jobs since then, and the Leeds gig came two years after his time in charge of West Bromwich Albion, after which few thought he would return.

That was because the West Brom job brought his first ever relegation, 535 Premier League games into his career, a record that is so impressive simply because of the number of relegation battles he has been involved in over the years. He was the man desperate teams started routinely turning to specifically to bail them out in their attempts to avoid the drop, and for good reason.

It was so long ago now that many people forget it, but Allardyce forged his reputation building a team of all-stars at Bolton Wanderers in the early 2000s, taking them into the UEFA Cup. None of his teams since have been quite so iconic, but the caricature of Big Sam endures, and will do for a long time yet. You’d be a brave person to bet against him adding to his 541 games as a Premier League manager.

Steve Bruce – 476 Games

The only man on this list to also pen a series of murder-mystery novels… probably. It’s been a couple of decades since Bruce wrote Striker!, Sweeper! and Defender!, with the former Manchester United captain – perhaps wisely – choosing to focus on his managerial career since.

While he may not have been especially popular at Newcastle United in his most recent Premier League stint, which ended in October 2021, there’s no denying he’s enjoyed a fine career at the top level of English football.

He’s managed Newcastle (84 games), Hull City (76), Sunderland (89), Wigan Athletic (62) and Birmingham City in the Premier League, with his spell at the latter comfortably the longest; he took charge of 165 top-flight games there, getting his first experience of the elite as a coach after guiding them to promotion in 2002.

Bruce brought his six-and-a-half-year stay at Birmingham to an end in May 2007 after guiding them back to the Premier League.

Mark Hughes – 466 Games

Another Man Utd great turned manager, Hughes took over at Blackburn Rovers in 2004 and for a while, cultivated a reputation as one of the best up-and-coming bosses in English football.

He steered Blackburn away from relegation, and then to a sixth-placed finish in his first full season at the helm, securing UEFA Cup football. Rovers finished 10th in 2006-07 and then seventh a year later, earning Hughes a move to Manchester City just before the club’s world was flipped on its head.

City had already invested significantly, and then, on 1 September 2008, their current owners took over and immediately made huge funds available, with Robinho brought in from Real Madrid before the transfer deadline.

But Hughes actually averaged fewer points per game (1.44) than he did at Blackburn (1.45) and only lasted until December 2009 (55 Premier League games), then going on to manage Fulham (38 games) and QPR (30) over the following three years.

He took charge of more top-flight games at Stoke City (174) than any other club until leaving in January 2018; since then, he has only coached Southampton in the Premier League, recording just three wins in 22 matches.

Roy Hodgson, 416 Games

At the ripe old age of 76, Roy Hodgson is the oldest manager to have managed in the Premier League. His latest stint came with Crystal Palace where he registered his 400th game in charge at this level, a tremendous achievement given his modest playing career and nomadic adventures around Europe in the 1970s, 80s, 90s and 00s.

Like Hughes, Hodgson’s first experience of Premier League football came at Blackburn (after a couple of years at Inter), who he managed for about 18 months (52 games) until November 1997. But it wasn’t until 2007, when appointed by Fulham (94), that English football really got to know Hodgson.

Since then, he’s also managed Liverpool (20), West Brom (50), Watford (18) and Palace in the top flight, with his time at Selhurst Park split between two spells.

He came out of retirement last season to return to Palace, before agreeing to stay on for the 2023-24 campaign as well. He was replaced by Oliver Glasner in February 2024.

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As you may well be aware, long throw-ins have made a bit of a comeback this season.

The numbers, as well as the eye test, prove there has been a big increase this term. In each of the previous five seasons, no more than 1.52 long throws had been attempted per Premier League game, when defining a ‘long throw’ as a throw-in aimed into the opposition’s penalty area and measuring at least 20 metres in length (before the next touch of the ball). This season, there have been 3.92 in each match, well over double the highest previous rate.

It’s been impossible to miss. Everyone is at it. Every team in the Premier League this season has put in at least five long throws, according to our above definition. Nine teams are putting in at least two per game. Four teams have attempted more than 100 in total – all averaging well over three per game.

Only, not everyone is doing it well. Brentford certainly are, having scored five goals after launching a long throw into the opposition’s box this term. They were also the best at it last season, when they scored six goals from such situations.

Given they supplemented their goal return last term with almost as many goals from long throws as every other Premier League team put together (seven), it’s reasonable to assume they are at least part of the reason everyone is at it in 2025-26.

“If Brentford can turn their throw-ins in the attacking third into half a dozen goals, then why can’t we?” Understandably, many clubs sought to answer that question this season.

As it turns out, being good at long throws isn’t quite as simple as finding out someone in your squad can hurl the ball from the touchline into the middle of the six-yard box. While it is a quick way to get the ball very, very close to goal, the numbers prove this is an incredibly inefficient way of attacking. It was before this season and it remains so now, even if there are now more goals from long throws.

There have been 1,179 long throws in 301 Premier League games this season, and just 24 goals from such situations. That’s one goal every 49.1 long throw attempts, or a goal from a long throw every 12.5 matches. And that’s only if you’re as good as the Premier League average. Tottenham have attempted 74 long throws in league games this season, and haven’t scored from a single one.

Corners are also a very inefficient route to goal, despite their growing popularity in recent seasons, but these two set-piece types, long throw-ins look even more of a waste of time.

There have been 2,564 corners that have been crossed directly into the box in Premier League games this season, and they have produced 123 goals. That’s a goal every 20.8 crossed corners, or one every 2.4 matches. They produce goals much, much more often than throw-ins, so launching a long throw into the box is not anything like as good as doing so with a corner.

The thing is, though, if you do an inefficient thing enough, it will eventually produce a higher output. If you threw a tennis ball at a brick wall enough times, it would eventually knock it down, but that fact doesn’t make it an efficient way of knocking down a wall.

There have already been at least 500 more long throws in the Premier League this season than in any of the previous 10 seasons, and we’ve still got 79 matches left to play this term. That has led to more goals from long throws than in any of those seasons, with 24 in total, at a rate of 0.08 per game.

One might argue here that any improvement is a worthwhile improvement. Seven of the 17 ever-present Premier League teams have scored more goals from long throws this season than they did last. Manchester United may not have beaten Newcastle 1-0 on Boxing Day were it not for Patrick Dorgu’s exceptional volley, which came from a long throw-in. It would be difficult to convince them that Diogo Dalot should not have launched the ball into the box from a throw that day.

But the truth is the increases have been minute. Fourteen goals from long throws last season has become 24 this season, and that should increase to 30 by the end of the campaign if they continue to be scored at the current rate. It’s not a groundbreaking increase.

Perhaps more significantly, the number of long throws that didn’t lead to a goal has skyrocketed from 564 last season to 1,155 already this season. That’s a whole lot of wasted time and effort.

Talking of wasted time, the ball has been out of play before throw-ins for an average of 642.2 seconds in each Premier League game this season. That’s 10 minutes and 42 seconds of waiting for throw-ins in every match.

Obviously, not all of that time is waiting for long throws, but given it is almost two minutes more of waiting for throw-ins than last season (eight minutes, 49 seconds per game), it looks very much like the focus on long throws is resulting in the ball being out of play for significantly longer in every match.

Also, this is only an average, so some games have seen much longer delays for throw-ins. Twenty-two different Premier League matches in 2025-26 have been delayed for more than 15 minutes just waiting for throw-ins. Some of those could have been affected by lengthy injuries or VAR checks when the ball has gone out for a throw, but that can’t be the reason for all of those matches seeing such long delays.

The point here goes beyond just complaining about the entertainment on offer when watching Premier League football. There are legitimate concerns about this from the viewers’ perspective, but that isn’t really the responsibility of the clubs or managers. Their priority is winning matches.

But there is also a possibility that so many long throws could actually be making it more difficult to win matches.

After the last four seasons were the four highest-scoring in Premier League history (from 2021-22 to 2024-25), the current season is, at present, producing the 13th-highest rate of goals (2.73 per game).

That may not be the direct result of the increase in long throws, but it certainly looks like it could be a contributing factor. The increase is part of the growing focus on set-pieces this season, which has either coincided with or directly resulted in teams being less capable of scoring from open play. We are seeing fewer goals from open play this season (1.7 per game) than in any Premier League season since 2009-10.

If teams spent less time working on long throws in training, they might get better at scoring from open play. Similarly, if players are being selected for their set-piece threat, that might make the team worse in open play.

If teams also spent less time getting ready for a long throw, they’d have more time with the ball on the pitch to try and score. And what’s more, taking a throw-in quickly and short doesn’t necessarily mean the team won’t get the ball closer to goal; it might just take them a few seconds longer.

In the interest of balance, it’s worth pointing out that, as is the case with most data, there are limitations here. The numbers we’ve been looking at don’t take into account, for example, that a long throw might be headed straight out for a corner, which the team scores from. Or that a long throw might be the only reason two centre-backs are in the opposition’s box a few phases of play later to score. There are also intangibles like the pressure that a long throw might help a team build, which might eventually contribute to the opposition collapsing and a goal being scored.

There is also the fact that more managers appear to be prioritising solid defences than free-flowing attacks, and it may not be realistic to score as many open-play goals while doing so. Hence the increased use of long throws.

All Premier League teams might become more effective at long throws in the coming years. Many are only just starting out on their long-throw journey, and they may eventually become as effective as Brentford.

But for now, the evidence suggests long throws might just be more trouble than they are worth for just about every Premier League side. It will be interesting to see how long they remain a common and frequent method of attack in the top flight.

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The Carabao Cup final this weekend means we only have 16 teams in action in Gameweek 31. With an international break and upcoming FA Cup quarter-finals, this is your last dose of Fantasy Premier League for three weeks. How will you cope?

We’ve crunched the Opta data to identify five players you should consider bringing into your team, despite them currently being picked by fewer than 10% of FPL managers.

GK – Matz Sels | 4.6m | 4.8% Ownership

The tension in the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will be all-encompassing this weekend when Spurs host Nottingham Forest. Nothing will be decided in terms of relegation whatever the outcome, but given Tottenham are on the longest run in the Premier League without a victory (12 games) with Forest (seven) next in those standings, a win will be huge should either team get it.

Neither club have averaged even one goal per game across their previous six matches, so picking one of their goalkeepers might make sense. But which way to go?

Guglielmo Vicario let in a soft free-kick at Anfield last week (and it’s safe to assume we won’t see Antonín Kinský), while only West Ham (12) have conceded more goals in their last six away league games than Forest (11).

You could avoid this match altogether and see who else is facing low-scoring teams. But are those options even that strong? It’d be a brave bet to take a Newcastle goalkeeper in a derby, which is one such option. Can you even be certain which goalkeeper Liam Rosenior will select for Chelsea in another?

With avoiding defeat the number one priority for Vitor Pereira, we suggest you pick Matz Sels. He kept a clean sheet last week and has more FPL points than Vicario in the three gameweeks since he returned from injury (9-5). Forest are at home to an Aston Villa side in freefall and Burnley in their following two games so Sels might be a decent choice beyond this week too.

DEF – Malick Thiaw | 5.0m | 7.0% Ownership

As much as it’s sensible to avoid a goalkeeper playing in the mayhem of a derby, they will almost certainly only earn FPL points at one end of the pitch. A defender can deliver in attack too, which brings us to Malick Thiaw.

The Newcastle centre-back will be up against a Sunderland side that have scored just eight goals in their 15 away matches in the 2025-26 Premier League. Magpies fans won’t need reminding of the Black Cats’ good record at St James’ Park, but a clean sheet looks far from impossible. They’ll be desperate for it after conceding seven in Barcelona on Wednesday.

Sunderland should also give Thiaw opportunities to score. They have conceded 10 goals from set-pieces this season, which isn’t too bad. However, Newcastle have scored that many at home alone, a tally that not even Arsenal can top.

Thiaw has amassed a very decent 3.7 non-penalty expected goals this season. Jurriën Timber (4.7) and Nico O’Reilly (4.0, having often played further forward) are the only defenders to have generated more. A goal on Sunday will ensure Thiaw never has to buy a drink in the Bigg Market ever again.

MID – Harvey Barnes | 6.1m | 1.2% Ownership

We’ll stay with the Tyne-Wear derby as we head into midfield. Our pick is Harvey Barnes, for a similar but different reason to Thiaw.

The former Leicester man offers a serious threat on the counter. He has scored two goals in Opta-defined fast break situations in the Champions League this season. Only Julián Alvarez and Kylian Mbappé (both three) have more. That’s not bad company to be keeping, is it?

Barnes can put this skill to good use against Sunderland, who have conceded six goals to opposition fast breaks. It’s the joint-most in the Premier League, along with Manchester United.

Even if counter-attacks don’t prove to be a factor, Barnes is in decent form. He has two goals and three assists in his last nine appearances, having scored against Manchester City and Barcelona (also assisting against the latter). Perhaps most pertinently this weekend, 11 of his 14 goals in all competitions have come at St. James’ Park.

Barnes is also Eddie Howe’s top man for non-penalty xG in the Premier League in 2025-26 (6.1). With matches against Crystal Palace and Bournemouth to follow after the international break, there are multiple opportunities for Barnes’ form to continue.

MID – Casemiro | 5.7m | 3.2% Ownership

Bournemouth are having such a weird season defensively. They have conceded 31 goals in their 15 away games, the second worst tally behind Burnley (35). Yet they have only allowed 15 opposition goals at the Vitality Stadium; just three teams have conceded fewer in home matches.

The Cherries host in-form Manchester United on Friday night. The teams played out a classic 4-4 draw in the reverse fixture, and even with their decent defensive record at home, Bournemouth have conceded three goals per game against the current top five.

This therefore seems a good opportunity for Casemiro to remain on a roll. The veteran has amassed 133 FPL points this season, the joint-most by a midfielder who costs less than £6.0m (alongside Elliot Anderson and James Garner).

Casemiro has scored in each of United’s previous two matches. He is running hot against his 4.7 xG by bagging seven league goals, but is perhaps due an assist. The Brazilian has set up two goals from 2.88 expected assists, with the latter being the fourth highest tally among the United squad.

He scored the only goal of this fixture in May 2023 and also found the net against Bournemouth earlier this season.

FWD – Tammy Abraham | 6.0m | 0.2% Ownership

The final section of our gameweek 30 article noted there were not many in-form forwards in the Premier League. We selected Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who proved the point by missing a penalty in a goalless draw at Crystal Palace. Cheers, Dominic!

Our pick this week, Tammy Abraham, is a bit of a gamble but it’s one with some logic behind it. His one Premier League start this season came in a home game on a Sunday after Aston Villa had been at home in Europe three days earlier. A repeat could easily occur this week given the circumstances.

With two goals in his last six appearances prior to the clash with Lille this week, Abraham was Unai Emery’s top scorer in this period. The 28-year-old striker is also adept at getting on the end of high value chances.

Abraham has averaged 0.58 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes in the English top flight this term. Among players with at least as much playing time, only Erling Haaland (0.66) and Callum Wilson (0.59) are ahead of him. We’ll need Emery to put Abraham in his XI for us, but if he does then he should do well against the second-worst defence in the Premier League this season.

Villa face Wilson’s side West Ham this week. Among likely starters in the division this weekend, Abraham is rated as the joint-likeliest to score in Opta’s Premier League Player Stat Predictions Table.

He happens to be level with Harvey Barnes, which could work out very nicely for us indeed.

*FPL player values and ownership data accurate as of 19 March 2026

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The eagle-eyed among you will have noticed that Gameweek 31 of FPL Challenge, Creativity, closely mirrors Gameweek 22, The Playmaker.

The key difference lies in the scoring. In Gameweek 22, players earned a point for every chance they created. This time, they must meet a threshold of three or more chances created, but doing so earns a flat six points, irrespective of whether they create three chances or 30 (hey it could happen).

With that in mind, let’s take a look at which players have reached that threshold on the most occasions this season:

The added complication this week, of course, is that Gameweek 31 is a blank gameweek in FPL. This term refers to any matchday in which at least two teams do not play. Because Arsenal and Manchester City will instead be playing in the Carabao Cup Final, players from their teams will not be available. The same applies to those from Wolverhampton Wanderers and Crystal Palace, who would have been their opponents.

In an effort to maximise our creative potential, we’ll be going with a midfield-heavy 1-1-3-1 formation this week.

Goalkeeper

Aaron Ramsdale: Newcastle vs Sunderland (H)

This may seem like a strange choice given Newcastle United conceded seven goals at the Camp Nou against Barcelona in midweek, but we’re selecting Aaron Ramsdale as our goalkeeper.

Newcastle kept an impressive clean sheet away to Chelsea in their last Premier League game, and this week they welcome rivals Sunderland to St. James’ Park for the Tyne-Wear derby.

Sunderland have scored eight goals away from home in the Premier League this season, the second-fewest of any team, after Wolves (seven). No other side in the division has scored fewer than 15 such goals.

Newcastle fans will expect a reaction to their midweek drubbing, and there is no better game for which to refocus their minds.

Defender:

Antonee Robinson: Fulham vs Burnley (H)

Fulham left-back Antonee Robinson averages 1.55 chances created per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, which is the most of any defender in FPL who is currently fit to play.

Having failed to score in their last three games in all competitions, Fulham aren’t exactly in their attacking prime right now, but the visit of Burnley to Craven Cottage offers them a great opportunity to rediscover their verve in the final third.

Chances created are essentially shots that are assisted, and Burnley have allowed the most assisted shots of any team in the Premier League this season (361).

Robinson has had ongoing fitness issues and therefore isn’t a certain starter, so make sure to be attentive to Fulham’s line-up announcement on Saturday, and take a peek at our list of honourable mentions (below) for an alternative.

Midfielder

Bruno Fernandes: Manchester United vs Bournemouth (A)

This is the fourth consecutive week in which Bruno Fernandes has made our team, so forgive us for running out of superlatives.

The Manchester United captain is the chief creator in the Premier League this season, with his 16 assists double that of any other player.

He’s now four assists shy of the single-season Premier League record co-held by Thierry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne, who assisted 20 goals each in 2002-03 and 2019-20, respectively.

With three clean sheets across their last four games, Bournemouth are no slouches, but such is the weekly excellence displayed by Fernandes, he will nonetheless be our choice of captain this week.

Anton Stach: Leeds United vs Brentford (H)

Next up is all-action midfielder Anton Stach, whose Leeds team face Brentford at Elland Road on Saturday night.

Stach has gone seriously under the radar this season – his 2.41 chances created per 90 minutes ranks fifth league-wide – a highly impressive feat for a player in their first season in the Premier League, and especially while playing for a side battling relegation.

Most important for this week’s scoring system, Stach has achieved the threshold of three or more chances created in 46% of his starts this season, which is the third-highest mark across the league.

Dominik Szoboszlai: Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion (A)

Rounding out our midfield is Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai, who scored again in midweek against Galatasaray to take his tally to 12 for the season in all competitions, the joint-best return of his career.

Multiple Liverpool players are great options this week, and although Florian Wirtz (2.24) and Mohamed Salah (2.18) average more chances created per 90 minutes than Szoboszlai (2.01) in the Premier League this season, they can’t match him for availability.

He regularly completes a full 90 minutes for Liverpool, and that has enabled him to stay on the pitch long enough to create three or more chances in 11 games this season, third only to Fernandes (17) and Declan Rice (12).

Forwards

Jarrod Bowen: West Ham vs Aston Villa (A)

Across his last nine games in all competitions, Jarrod Bowen has scored four goals and provided five assists, with goal involvements against the likes of Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea during this stretch.

Bowen has created the most chances of any player listed as a forward in FPL this season, with 30, and while he averages just one chance created per 90 minutes, he has been in strong creative form of late.

Indeed, he has met the three-chance threshold in three of his last four Premier League appearances, only failing to do so last time out against Man City when he nonetheless assisted West Ham’s only goal of the game.

GW31 Honourable Mentions

Pedro Porro leads all defenders for total chances created in the Premier League this season, with 34. Spurs have failed to keep a clean sheet in nine consecutive games in all competitions, but a midweek win against Atlético Madrid could provide a much-needed spark for some Premier League form.

Pascal Groß has been wonderful to watch on his return to Brighton and has met the threshold of three chances created in 30% of his starts in the Premier League since re-joining the club in January.

João Pedro doesn’t make our team this week as a result of Chelsea’s run of three consecutive defeats, but he is nonetheless a strong pick due to his blend of scoring and assisting potential. He ranks second among forwards for chances created, with 27.

Opta Analyst’s Team Reveal: Gameweek 31 FPL Challenge Picks

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There are few things in life that are guaranteed, but, of course, there’s death, taxes and LeBron James playing really well in the NBA.

Whether it be with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat or Los Angeles Lakers, James has been dominating the league for the last 23 seasons. 

He’s already won four NBA titles, received four NBA Finals MVP awards, been selected to 22 All-Star teams and 21 All-NBA teams, made the All-Defensive Team six times, and even won the league’s first NBA Cup in-season tournament as a Laker.

He has numerous records, including seasons played, minutes played, points, field goals and playoff wins. And now, he’s added another achievement to his lengthy resume: the all-time leader in games played when he matched Hall-of-Fame center Robert Parish at 1,611. 

Even with so much known about James’ illustrious career, we’re spotlighting some wild facts and stats that you never realized you needed to know.

The King of the Box Score

While Opta’s advanced data always digs deeper than traditional box scores, it’s not a bad thing to just fill up the stat sheet.

When it comes to the NBA, no one has done a better job of that than James.

You surely know the Chosen One tops the NBA’s all-time scoring list, but you may not know he’s the only player to be over 10,000 in career points, rebounds and assists.

He had a streak of 1,297 consecutive games with at least 10 points, ending in December as the longest in NBA history. Second on that is Michael Jordan, LeBron’s greatest competitor for the GOAT throne, and his best goes all the way back to 866 consecutive games.

James is both the youngest (23) and oldest (37) player to average 30 points in a season. He’s also victimized every current NBA team for at least 40 points in a game, even against the Cavaliers, Heat and Lakers.

LeBron’s Career Scoring Record in Perspective

King James’ career points record is bonkers – he’s stretched it past Kareem Abdul-Jabbar by over 10%. To add some perspective: If you combined the career points of Bill Russell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Joel Embiid (three former MVPs), they’re still over 2,000 points behind LeBron.

Recently, there has been a lot of nostalgia surrounding the American Basketball Association, thanks to an Amazon Prime Video documentary. Well, if you combined the career point totals of that league’s three all-time leading scorers (Louie Dampier, Dan Issel and Ron Boone), they would still be over 4,000 points short of James’ current mark.

The Seven Degrees of LeBron James

James is the NBA’s equivalent of Kevin Bacon in that his career has been connected to so much of NBA history. Since making his debut on Oct. 29, 2003, he’s played against more than 36.2% of all players in NBA history (1,842 of 5,094).

In fact, 2,375 NBA players have made their debut since James entered the league, with 1,382 of them no longer in the league today (58.2%). Of those 1,382 players, 29 of them were All-Stars at one point (this does not include Chris Paul, who is still technically on an NBA roster).

Derrick Rose entered the league five years after James, won an NBA MVP award (in 2010-11), and is now no longer in the league – a pretty miraculous scenario even with injuries factoring into it.

James also has been part of nearly 12.7% of the 79 NBA Finals. His 10 finals appearances are more than 27 different NBA franchises – only the Boston Celtics, Lakers and Golden State Warriors have more than him.

In keeping with that theme, James has played for teams that have gained 184 playoff wins – more than 21 individual franchises.

Papa James

At 41 years old, James is old enough to be the father of a bunch of players in the NBA today. In fact, he’s been in the league long enough to become part of its only father-son duo to play together as his son Bronny James is in his second season.

To put an exact number on this, there are 85 current players who weren’t born yet when James made his debut. Brice Sensabaugh was the first current NBA player to be born after James’ grand introduction to the league – Oct. 30, 2003, the day after LeBron’s 25-point, 42-minute debut against the Sacramento Kings. Sensabaugh is now in his third season in the league.

Cooper Flagg, one of the new faces of the league after being drafted No. 1 by the Dallas Mavericks last year, wasn’t even 3 years old yet when James won his first of four MVP awards in 2009.

James is also older than six current head coaches/interim head coaches: Will Hardy, Joe Mazzula, Mitch Johnson, Tiago Splitter, Jordan Ott and Mark Daigneault. It would be seven coaches, but Charles Lee has him beat by a month.

LeBron’s own head coach, JJ Redick, is only six months older than him. But Redick joined the league after James made his debut, retired, had a successful media career, then became his coach all during that run.

The GOAT Debate

There’s arguably nothing more interesting to fans than the age-old question about who’s the greatest player in NBA history. Nowadays, the debate has basically been narrowed down to two main candidates: James and Jordan.

If you believe longevity is the key component to being the GOAT, well, then there’s no question about the top dog. James has been selected to the All-NBA first team 13 times, which is the exact number of seasons Jordan played for the Chicago Bulls (he made the first team 10 times).

At the very least, The King has dominated the NBA far longer than His Airness ever did.

Jeff Mangurten and Jesse Abrahams of Stats Perform’s U.S. Data Insights contributed research to this story. For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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Once again, the Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season, with the projection model providing data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.

Our AI-powered supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2024-25, and has also attracted plenty of eyeballs throughout 2025-26 as we enjoy another thrilling instalment of the Premier League.

Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for the upcoming matchday.

Matchday 31

The Opta supercomputer has delivered its match predictions for another round of fixtures, as the Premier League run-in picks up steam.

Last weekend, Manchester City slipped up with a second consecutive draw, meaning Arsenal are now nine points clear, but the focus turns away from the title race this week, with the top two facing off in the EFL Cup final on Sunday.

Manchester United are in the driving seat in the top-four race after a win over Aston Villa, with Liverpool and Chelsea dropping points last weekend.

At the other end of the table, Tottenham Hotspur, Nottingham Forest and West Ham all picked up draws to boost their respective bids to avoid relegation, and there remains only one point separating the three between 16th and 18th.

Matchday 31 will see games played across Friday, Saturday and Sunday in another bumper offering ahead of the final international break of the season.

Man Utd travel to Bournemouth on Friday to kickstart the weekend, before Liverpool look to bounce back in the league against Brighton early the following day.

Burnley will also be seeking a result as they aim to keep their hopes of a great escape alive when they face Fulham, before Chelsea travel to Everton in need of three points after a run of poor results.

Leeds United and Brentford round off Saturday’s action, while Sunday steals the spotlight with a Tyne-Wear derby before a relegation six-pointer between Tottenham and Forest that could have huge implications at the bottom.

Here, we check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions ahead of another exciting slate of Premier League fixtures.

Premier League Predictions Matchday 31: The Quick Hits

• Aston Villa are the supercomputer’s favourites for victory this week, with Unai Emery’s team handed a 62.8% win probability against West Ham.
• Spurs are forecasted to come out on top against Nottingham Forest in their relegation six-pointer.
• Brentford are the most favoured away team, but the supercomputer is expecting a tight contest at Elland Road.

Friday 20 March

The MD31 action begins on the south coast, with Manchester United looking to further strengthen their grip on third against a Bournemouth side on a fine unbeaten streak.

United bounced back from Michael Carrick’s first defeat in charge against Newcastle with a 3-1 win over fellow top-four hopefuls Aston Villa, while Bournemouth’s 0-0 draw with Burnley means they have gone 10 games without defeat in the Premier League.

And the Cherries are unbeaten in their last five top-flight games against United (W2 D3), scoring more goals in that run (13) than they did in their first 12 meetings with them (10).

United have lost just two of their eight Premier League away games against Bournemouth (W4 D2), coming from behind to draw the last two.

And with Bournemouth drawing each of their last four (three by a 0-0 scoreline), it is no surprise that our predictive model has this ranked as the game with the highest chance of a draw at 26.5%. Andoni Iraola’s side are slight favourites to win at 38.7%, with United winning the other 34.8% of the pre-match simulations.

Saturday 21 March

Onto Saturday, and Liverpool will be desperate to get their push for a Champions League spot back on track against Brighton.

The Reds hammered Galatasaray 4-0 in midweek to seal their progress in Europe, but last time out in the top flight, they allowed Spurs to fight back late on and snatch a 1-1 draw at Anfield.

Liverpool have conceded eight goals in the 90th minute (including stoppage time) in the Premier League this season. All eight of these goals against them have been decisive in them either drawing (three) or losing (five) the match.

Liverpool are only slight favourites to win on the south coast according to the supercomputer, with a 37.2% chance of victory to Brighton’s 36.6%. There is a 26.2% chance of a draw.

Arne Slot’s side have already beaten Brighton twice at Anfield this season – 2-0 in the top-flight and 3-0 in the FA Cup – but the Seagulls have won two of their last three home league games against them (D1).

Brighton are in good form, too, winning three of their last four games (L1), while Liverpool have lost nine matches this season – they last suffered 10 defeats in a single campaign in 2015-16.

Following their 3-2 win in December, Fulham are looking to complete the league double over Burnley for the first time since 1950-51.

Their top-seven push has stalled somewhat in recent weeks, with Fulham drawing against Burnley’s fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest last Sunday, after losing to West Ham in their previous league game.

But Burnley have won just one of their last 21 Premier League games (D7 L13), though four of their 10 points in this run have come away against London sides (3-2 vs Crystal Palace, 1-1 vs Chelsea).

And our model does not fancy their chances of turning their fortunes round – they have an 18% win probability. Fulham’s chances are ranked at 61.8%, with the likelihood of a draw being 20.2%.

Chelsea escaped a points deduction this week, after a long-standing Premier League investigation into payments made during the Roman Abramovich era. That was good news for the Blues’ Champions League qualification hopes, though they might not be too keen on returning to the competition after they were hammered by Paris Saint-Germain over the two legs of their last-16 tie. They remain within three points of the top four in the league, though will no doubt face a stern challenge at Everton.

And the supercomputer is anticipating it to be tight. Liam Rosenior’s team came out on top in 37.1% of the simulations, while Everton were victors in 36.6%.

Following their 2-0 win against Burnley at the start of the month, Everton are looking to win consecutive Premier League games at the Hill Dickinson Stadium for the first time. A victory here would see them move within two points of Chelsea.

Everton have, though, failed to score in 12 of their last 19 Premier League games against Chelsea, including each of the last four.

Following their 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge in December, Chelsea are looking to complete the league double over Everton for the first time since 2016-17. However, Everton have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games against Chelsea (W5 D2), going down 1-0 in August 2022.

Leeds United (34.5%) will attempt to further push for safety against Brentford (39.6%), whose European challenge suffered a stumble on Monday after they blew a two-goal lead to draw 2-2 at home to Wolves on Monday.

Leeds have lost just one of their last 16 home league games against Brentford (W7 D8) and are unbeaten in seven since a 1-0 loss in February 2015.

Four of the last six league meetings between the sides have been drawn, with both winning once each in that run, and the supercomputer expects another tight contest at Elland Road, with a 25.9% chance of a draw.

The Bees have turned their away form around this season, winning five of their last seven on the road (D1 L1) after losing seven of their first eight away matches in the league this term.

Igor Thiago will also be looking to become just the third Brentford player to score 20+ goals in a single Premier League season, having netted 19 times already this season.

Sunday 22 March

A Tyne-Wear derby gets the action underway on Sunday, with Newcastle United out to exact revenge after losing the reverse fixture to Sunderland.

Following their 1-0 loss at the Stadium of Light, Eddie Howe could become the first-ever Newcastle manager to lose his first two league games against Sunderland.

Newcastle have won their last two league matches – against Man Utd and Chelsea – but they come into this clash having been trounced by Barcelona 7-2 at Camp Nou on Wednesday. However, they are heavy favourites to claim three points here.

They have a 60.8% win probability, though they are winless in their last five home league games against Sunderland (D2 L3).

The Black Cats, meanwhile, are handed an 18.6% chance of victory, but are unbeaten in their last 10 league games against the Magpies (W7 D3), winning seven of the last eight.

Sunderland will feel confident. They are one of three teams yet to lose when scoring first this term (W6 D4), while only Villa (19) have won more points from losing positions than Sunderland (16) – Newcastle, by contrast, have dropped 19 points from winning positions.

Aston Villa are looking over their shoulders in the top-four race, but if they can complete the league double over West Ham for the first time since 2010-11, it would end their recent slide.

Emery’s men won 62.8% of the pre-match simulations, making them the most likely winners of MD31, whereas West Ham have a win probability of 17.5%.

Villa have lost three consecutive Premier League games, as many as their previous 17 beforehand (W11 D3).

The Villans last suffered four consecutive league defeats in April 2022 (a run that included a 2-1 defeat to West Ham), while Emery has never done so in his entire managerial league career.

West Ham, meanwhile, have earned 15 points from their last nine Premier League games (W4 D3 L2), one more than from their first 21 outings this season (W3 D5 L13).

There is a huge battle at the bottom of the table to round off the Premier League weekend, with Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest both in need of points in the relegation battle.

Only one point separates the teams in the table, and a loss for either one could see them spending the international break in the bottom three, depending on West Ham’s result.

Spurs beat Atlético Madrid 3-2 on Wednesday, though still exited the Champions League on 7-5 on aggregate, but the level of the performance provides some encouragement for Igor Tudor, especially coming on the back of last week’s spirited draw at Liverpool.

However, Spurs remain the only top-flight team without a win in 2026 (D5 L7), but the Opta supercomputer expects that to change this weekend.

Spurs won 48.7% of the pre-match simulations. However, they have lost their last three Premier League games against Forest, having won six on the spin against them before that, which does not bode well if they are to end their 12-match winless streak in the competition.

Only against Southampton (five) do Forest have more away wins in the competition than they do at Spurs (four), winning this exact fixture 2-1 last season. They are given a 25.6% chance of triumphing once more.

Forest are winless in seven Premier League games (D4 L3) and have failed to score in 14 games this term, but they have drawn their last two outings, including a 2-2 stalemate with Man City in their last away match.

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It’s been a bad couple of weeks for English clubs in the UEFA Champions League, with results over the past two days confirming the exits of four of them at the last-16 stage.

Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham and Newcastle saw their European campaigns ended across Tuesday and Wednesday – though in most cases the real damage was done last week.

All four of them conceded at least five goals across two legs, with Newcastle and Chelsea shipping as many as eight each, and as such, Premier League representation in the Champions League went from six teams to two over a single round.

In many areas of the media and social media, the response has been to begin something of a post-mortem.

Some have framed it as a shocking “collapse”; others have asked “what went wrong for the English clubs?” as if one country taking most of the UCL quarter-final spots is the norm.

However, these responses arguably represent an overreaction.

Look at each individual Champions League last-16 tie that involved an English team and ask yourself, how many resembled foregone conclusions?

Focusing on those who’ve been eliminated, were any of those outcomes really that surprising?

Chelsea have been up and down all season; they’ve got the youngest average starting XI age in the competition (24 years, 82 days), and they were playing against the defending champions, Paris Saint-Germain, who also benefitted from having the prior weekend off before the second leg.

Man City faced the most successful team in European Cup history, Real Madrid, who had also eliminated them in three of the past four seasons before this. City haven’t exactly been a picture of consistency in 2025-26 either.

Newcastle are, according to the Premier League table, only the ninth best English team this season and they were up against the very best La Liga has to offer, reigning Spanish champions Barcelona.

And Tottenham, amid their worst domestic season for a generation, were drawn against the third best team in Spain and Champions League stalwarts, Atlético Madrid.

Even if City or Chelsea were considered slight favourites ahead of those ties, it’s not like they’d have been looking at their respective opponents like progress was anything close to assured.

From some of the reactions to the eliminations of English clubs, you’d think the Premier League was in crisis, but that’s simply not the case.

The fact there were so many English clubs in the last 16 in the first place is evidence enough.

No nation had ever taken up six spots in the Champions League round of 16, with the results of English clubs already virtually assuring fifth place in the Premier League will once again secure qualification to the UCL league phase next term.

Victories for Arsenal and Liverpool this week took English clubs’ average coefficient score to 23.847, which is what Spain finished 2024-25 with while earning the second extra Champions League qualification ticket.

Furthermore, with Arsenal and Liverpool ultimately going through to the Champions League quarter-finals relatively comfortably, the Premier League still has representation in the competition.

And “only” having two sides in the Champions League quarter-finals isn’t unusual.

This is the fourth successive campaign in which two English clubs have progressed to the last eight of the competition.

For some onlookers, concern may be focused more on the heavy nature of some of the aggregate defeats rather than simply that English teams were eliminated.

That is a bit more understandable given Madrid beat City 5-1 across the two legs, PSG were 8-2 aggregate winners over Chelsea, and Barcelona stuffed Newcastle 8-3 on aggregate.

The early red card for Bernardo Silva in City’s second-leg defeat to Madrid means you can justifiably say there were extenuating circumstances for that tie. As for Chelsea, their shots actually generated more expected goals (xG) over the two legs (2.83) than PSG’s (1.99), suggesting the French champions were simply far more ruthless and clinical with their finishing.

The topic of domestic quality has also come into the debate. While the Premier League’s standard is extremely high, and higher on average than any other European league according to the Opta Power Rankings, there’s an argument this causes a knock-on effect in Europe.

The theory is the Premier League is so competitive and physical that teams perhaps feel less compelled – or able – to rotate their squads, potentially meaning players aren’t as fresh for midweek European exploits.

Others will feel that’s simply an excuse, and that may be fair enough.

Ultimately, the teams who went out were all given tough draws relative to their own quality. But when you have six sides from one nation in the last 16, some are bound to face stiff opposition. The more representatives you have, the likelier it is you’ll see some eliminated.

Although it was the first time any nation has seen four teams eliminated at the same stage of the Champions League in a single season, you need to have had as many as four in it to set such a record. And there are still two sides left.

Furthermore, when considering the integrity of the competition, it’s a good thing that some of the English clubs went out.

The optics would have been poor for the Champions League as a tournament if the majority of the quarter-final places were taken up by Premier League teams, and it would’ve added further fuel to the belief that the English top flight is essentially the ‘European Super League’ many of its clubs fought to extinguish.

Make no mistake, it has been a tough couple of weeks for the English sides. But that’s fine, and any talk of a crisis is hyperbolic nonsense.

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The great footballers answer their critics with moments of brilliance.

Mohamed Salah has not had his finest season, and only last week, we looked at why his goal numbers have dipped so dramatically from their previously very high levels.

When the Egyptian’s tame first-half penalty was saved by Galatasaray goalkeeper Ugurcan Çakir on Wednesday in Liverpool’s UEFA Champions League last-16 second leg, it felt like more of the same. However, we all should have known better.

After providing an inch-perfect assist for Hugo Ekitiké to make it 2-0 and put Liverpool ahead in the tie early in the second half at Anfield, and seeing a shot saved by Çakir that led to Ryan Gravenberch adding a third for the hosts on the rebound, it was Salah’s turn to make the net ripple just after the hour mark.

After linking up with Florian Wirtz on the right side of the penalty area, Salah cut inside and bent a sublime shot into the far left corner of the net, with Çakir only able to get the merest of fingertips to it. Liverpool ultimately eased to a 4-0 win on the night, and a 4-1 aggregate victory to take them into the quarter-finals.

It was a relief to see Salah put the penalty miss behind him and score what was just his 10th goal of the season. More significantly, it was the 50th Champions League goal of his career. That made him the first African player to reach a half-century of goals in the competition.

Salah is also just one of 11 players to score at least 50 Champions League goals. It took him 97 games to get there, the same as legendary Real Madrid striker Raúl.

Only eight players have reached a half-century in the competition in fewer games, one of whom is Harry Kane (66), who also scored his 50th Champions League goal on Wednesday, just a few minutes before Salah did the same.

The 33-year-old is now joint-10th for Champions League goals since the competition began in 1992-93, level with Kane and Thierry Henry.

After scoring twice in the Champions League for Basel and once for Roma, his other 47 strikes have all been in a Liverpool shirt, which have helped him play in three Champions League finals with the Reds, winning it in 2019.

His 50 Champions League goals have come against 25 different opponents, with FC Porto the team he has punished most, scoring five goals in six games against them. Salah also managed four goals against Rangers across two games in the 2022-23 season, while he’s scored three times against Salzburg (2 games), Maribor (2 games) and Atlético Madrid (5 games).

Salah will have his work cut out in the quarter-finals as Liverpool face holders Paris Saint-Germain. The French giants are the team Salah has faced most in the Champions League without finding the net (4 games).

Was it just a case of him stepping up on the big occasion, though, or was Salah’s impressive showing on Wednesday a result of his manager finding a more suitable role for him?

We pointed out recently that Salah has not been seeing as much of the ball in the penalty area this season as he has previously, only averaging 7.5 touches in the opposition box, comfortably his lowest in a campaign for Liverpool.

However, Arne Slot played him in a front two with Ekitiké on Wednesday night, allowing Salah to receive the ball in more central areas.

He had 13 touches in the opposition box against Galatasaray, his second most in a game this season.

Funnily enough, both his assist and his goal came from outside the penalty area, but his total of seven shots and six on target were the most Salah has recorded in a game for Liverpool this season.

Not including his missed penalty, he also racked up 1.45 expected goals (xG), his highest non-penalty xG in a single game this season, with his next highest being 0.92 against Atlético in the league phase of the Champions League.

It was all especially impressive when you consider Salah was substituted in the 74th minute, seemingly having felt a slight injury that could rule him out of Liverpool’s trip to Brighton on Saturday.

His assist and goal were his 200th and 201st goal involvements for Liverpool at Anfield in all competitions (140 goals, 61 assists), in 211 home appearances.

Getting Salah closer to goal seems to have done the trick, though it should be pointed out that Galatasaray weren’t able to show much resistance to Liverpool’s stunning performance, and PSG should be a much tougher prospect.

If the Egyptian King can get anywhere near his usual levels, though, a mostly disappointing season for Liverpool could still have a happy ending.

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The post Central Shift Helps Mohamed Salah to Historic Champions League Landmark appeared first on Opta Analyst.

You get very few firsts in football these days.

That is especially the case in Switzerland, where, since the launch of the Super League in 2003, only three clubs have won the top-flight title. Each of the 22 completed seasons of the Swiss Super League to date have been won by either Basel (12), Young Boys (6) or FC Zürich (4).

However, with eight matchdays remaining in 2025-26, there is set to be a new victor.

FC Thun have not only never won the Super League, they haven’t won any iteration of the Swiss top flight since they were formed in 1898. In fact, they haven’t even won a Swiss Cup. So, excluding their two second-tier title wins, Thun are on course to lift their first ever major piece of silverware.

Managed by former Switzerland international Mauro Lustrinelli, they have a 16-point lead after 30 games, needing just nine more from their final eight matches to clinch a historic first top-flight title.

What makes their likely achievement even more remarkable is that this time last year, Thun weren’t even in the Super League. After relegation to the Challenge League (second tier) in 2019-20, it took them five years to get promoted again, which they achieved last season.

The town of Thun has a population of just over 44,000 people in the canton of Bern, while the club’s stadium, Stockhorn Arena, holds just 10,000, making it the third-smallest in the Swiss Super League.

If you think you’ve heard the name before, that could be because in the 2005-06 season, Thun were in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. Following their best-ever league finish (second in 2004-05), the club managed to get past Dynamo Kyiv and Malmö FF to make it to the group stage of Europe’s biggest club competition.

They ultimately finished third in the group behind Arsenal and Ajax, but the fact they placed ahead of Sparta Prague – who they beat 1-0 at home – was a terrific achievement for the club. They came close to drawing twice against Arsenal, too. First, at Highbury, a stoppage-time winner from Dennis Bergkamp earned the Premier League side a 2-1 win. It then took an 88th-minute penalty from Robert Pires to give the Gunners a 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture.

Thun were also unlucky to lose 4-2 at home to Ajax, with the sides level at 2-2 until two stoppage-time goals for the Dutch giants.

Just two years after locking horns with Arsenal in the Champions League, Thun were relegated. However, they soon bounced back and earned a place in the Europa League qualifiers in 2011-12, before being dumped out 5-1 on aggregate by Stoke City in the play-off round.

They at least stayed in the top flight for the remainder of the decade, only to drop back into the second tier at the end of 2019-20 following a promotion/relegation play-off defeat to Vaduz.

Lustrinelli was part of the Thun squad that took part in that Champions League campaign 20 years ago, scoring in the home defeat to Ajax. He was appointed as manager in 2022 and was clear in his ambition to get the club back to their glory days.

Despite how quickly they’ve gone from the Challenge League to likely Super League champions, this was not a rapid process. Lustrinelli’s first season led to a sixth-place finish in the second tier, their lowest in 14 years. However, they finished second in 2023-24, an agonising three points behind champions Sion, before losing the promotion/relegation play-off game against Grasshoppers.

They made up for it last season, though, easing to the title, finishing 11 points ahead of second-placed FC Aarau.

This season, Lustrinelli’s side took to the Super League as if they had never left it, winning their first four league games in 2025-26, including a 4-0 victory away at FC Zürich. By the winter break, Thun were top of the league (W13 D1 L5), with a three-point advantage over St. Gallen in second.

Just as questions were being asked about whether they could keep up that form, they pressed down further on the accelerator. Between Matchday 18 and 27, they won 10 games in a row, the fourth-longest winning streak in Super League history.

Thun have won 12 of their last 13 league games (D1), including a 5-1 thrashing of Grasshoppers in their last outing. That seemed somewhat symbolic, not just because it was a measure of revenge for their play-off defeat in 2023-24, but because, despite not being the force they once were, Grasshoppers have won the most Swiss top-flight titles in history (27). Thun are closing in on their first, and swept aside their highly decorated opponents with ease along the way.

Thun’s 71 points is the fifth-best tally by any team after 30 games of a Super League season; the last team to have as many at this stage of a campaign were 2018-19 champions Young Boys with 78 points). No promoted side have ever recorded more than 60 points in a Super League season.

While Thun are on course to become just the fourth club to win the Super League since its inaugural season in 2003-04, they would become the 20th different club overall to win the Swiss top flight.

So, how have they managed to get here?

Lustrinelli likes his team to press high, and they certainly do that. Thun have recorded the most high turnovers in the Swiss Super League this season (285), and the most goal-ending high turnovers (7).

They also have the lowest average PPDA (opposition passes allowed per defensive action), which is a measurement of how aggressive a team’s press is. The lower the average, the more aggressive their press is. Thun’s PPDA of 8.7 is the same as Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona, who have the joint-lowest of teams in Europe’s top five leagues.

They have also made the most pressed sequences (500) in the Swiss top flight. These are sequences that Thun have started in the opposition’s defensive third, after their opposition have attempted a move containing three or fewer passes and lost the ball in their own half.

With the ball, they have scored the most direct-attack goals (6) – open-play sequences that start just inside their own half and have at least 50% of movement towards the opposition’s goal and end in a goal.

There’s an awful lot of numbers and definitions there, but in summary, they are aggressive and direct both on and off the ball.

As you can see from the team styles graphic below, Thun are among the most direct teams in the Swiss league. They have the highest direct speed upfield (2.4 m/s) and the third-lowest average passes per sequence in the Swiss league (2.2).

They do not mess around when they have the ball. They want to get forward as soon as possible.

It is a real team effort, too. This isn’t a story of a team being carried to success by one or two outstanding players. Thun have six players who have scored at least five goals in the Super League this season; no other team has more than four.

Their top scorer is Elmin Rastoder with 12 goals, the joint-fourth most in the league, but they also have Christopher Ibayi and Leonardo Bertone on nine each, and Ethan Meichtry on eight.

Rastoder leads from the front as a good all-rounder. As well as scoring goals, no player has won possession in the opposition final third more than him (29) and only four players in the league have created more chances from open play than his 45.

Only four players in the Swiss top flight have more assists than full-back Fabio Fehr (7) this season, and only Basel’s Xherdan Shaqiri (3.8) averages more chances created per 90 than Fehr (3.0).

Kastriot Imeri, on loan from Young Boys, has six goals and six assists from 23 games. His 0.49 assists per 90 is the second most in the division of players to have at least 10 appearances this season.

As well as his nine goals, midfielder Bertone comfortably leads the way in the Super League for passes into the opponent’s final third (336), with centre-back Marko Bürki recording the third most (251).

As you can see from their pass maps below, they are largely balls into the channels. That eagerness to get the ball into the final third as quickly and often as possible is a big part of their aggressive approach.

Thun have been productive and efficient at both ends of the pitch. They have scored the most goals (71) and conceded the fewest (33) in the Swiss Super League this season, and have outperformed their expected goals (xG) at both ends significantly.

Lustrinelli’s men have scored 71 goals from 59 xG (+12.0) and conceded 33 goals from 45.4 xG against (-12.4), both the biggest overperformances in the league.

Their 71 goals scored after 30 Super League matches is the most by a team in the competition since Young Boys in 2018-19 (79).

Lustrinell does not appear to believe his team needs to control games, instead preferring to ask as many questions of the opposition as possible via high pressing and direct passing. Thun average 46.1% possession in games this season, with only three Super League teams averaging less.

You can see from their zones of control map below how few areas of the pitch they have the majority of touches of the ball.

As a result, their games are quite open. Thun have attempted the most shots (528) of any team, but only three have allowed more shots at their own goal (452), keeping Niklas Steffen busy between the sticks.

The Thun goalkeeper has conceded 32 goals from 41.5 xGOT this season, preventing 9.5 goals, second only to Basel’s Marwin Hitz (10.7). Steffen is a major reason why Thun have significantly overperformed their defensive numbers this campaign.

While winning their first ever top-flight title is probably enough of an indication that Thun are having a very good season, they have also rocketed up the Opta Power Rankings.

When Lustrinelli took over in July 2022, Thun were outside the world’s top 1,500 men’s teams. By the start of this season, they were up to 713th following their promotion. Now they are 195th, just six places behind Bundesliga side FC Köln.

They could clinch the title before Matchday 34 when the Super League splits in two, if they can secure victories in their next three games against Zürich, Lugano and Basel.

Surely it is a matter of when, not if, and Thun winning the league would not only be historic in the sense that it will be their first, but it will also mean they enter the Champions League at the second qualifying round stage next season.

Lustrinelli said he wanted to bring back the glory days to FC Thun. He’s on course to give them the best days in their 128-year history.

(Banner image courtesy of FC Thun/Levin Anneler)

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The post From Second Tier to Top-Flight Title in One Year? How Direct and Efficient FC Thun Are Shocking Swiss Football appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Bournemouth vs Man Utd: The Key Stats

• Bournemouth won 38.7% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer, slightly ahead of Manchester United (34.8%).
• Since Michael Carrick took charge of United in January, the Red Devils have won more Premier League games (7) and more Premier League points (22) than any other side.
• Bruno Fernandes could become the first Premier League player on record to create six or more chances in four consecutive matches.

Michael Carrick will hope to continue Manchester United’s impressive rise under his leadership when they visit Bournemouth on Friday night.

The former United midfielder has had quite the impact since replacing Ruben Amorim for his second caretaker stint. His side have won more Premier League games (7) and more points (22) than any other side since his appointment in January.

Goals from Casemiro, Matheus Cunha and Benjamin Sesko swept aside top-four rivals Aston Villa 3-1 last time out at Old Trafford, moving third-placed United three points clear of fourth.

Central to their strong run under Carrick has been Bruno Fernandes, who assisted another two goals in the victory over Villa. In fact, each of Casemiro’s last five Premier League goals this season have been created by Fernandes.

Only Marcus Rashford has been set up by the same player more often in a single campaign for Man Utd in the competition (6, again, by Fernandes in 2022-23), and the Portuguese playmaker will expect to keep the chances flowing at the Vitality Stadium.

Fernandes has created 6+ chances in each of his last three Premier League games, becoming the first player to do so since Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold in December 2023. No player on record – since detailed Opta data collection began in 2003-04 – has created six or more chances in four successive appearances in the competition.

And the United captain will be looking forward to his next opponent. Fernandes has been involved in eight goals in his eight Premier League games against Bournemouth (4 goals, 4 assists), though only two of these (2 goals, 0 assists) have come at the Vitality.

But breaching Andoni Iraola’s defence may prove troublesome. Bournemouth are looking to keep three consecutive clean sheets in the Premier League for the first time since November 2019, when they had two goalless draws followed by a 1-0 win against Man Utd.

Coincidentally, their last two clean sheets this campaign have come in goalless draws – against struggling Burnley and high-flying Brentford – with United again Bournemouth’s third game in the run.

Could it happen again? Well, Bournemouth have kept nine clean sheets overall this season, only managing more in the top flight in 2016-17 and 2018-19 (10), and they have looked solid despite losing practically their entire backline last summer.

While change has been aplenty for Bournemouth in the transfer market, Iraola’s side still sit 10th in the league and unbeaten in their last 10 top-flight outings.

However, they have drawn each of their last four Premier League games, three of which have been goalless. The last side to draw five consecutive matches in the competition was Fulham between December 2020 and January 2021.

This fixture slot might appear inviting for the Cherries, though. Bournemouth have won three of their four Friday night games in the Premier League, the exception being a 4-2 loss at Liverpool in their opening game this season.

By contrast, United have won just one of their five away Friday night games in the Premier League (D2 L2), beating Aston Villa 1-0 in August 2015.

In terms of team news, Bournemouth will battle on without Justin Kluivert and Lewis Cook, though Tyler Adams’ fitness will be assessed late before the clash.

Carrick remains without Patrick Dorgu, Lisandro Martínez and Matthijs de Ligt, with that trio all expected back in mid-April.

Bournemouth vs Man Utd Head-to-Head

Eight different players scored as this pair played out a thrilling 4-4 draw at Old Trafford back in mid-December, and that kept up Bournemouth’s strong record against Monday’s visitors.

They are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games against United (W2 D3), scoring more goals in these five (13) than they did in their first 12 against the Red Devils in the division (10).

However, United have lost just two of their eight away Premier League games against Bournemouth (W4 D2). Their last two visits to the Vitality have seen them come from behind to draw.

Rasmus Højlund’s 96th-minute leveller snatched a 1-1 draw in this exact fixture last season, cancelling out Antoine Semenyo’s first-half opener.

Bournemouth vs Man Utd Prediction

The Opta supercomputer struggled to split these two teams, with Bournemouth narrowly coming out on top in 38.7% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Manchester United still hold a 34.8% chance of claiming all three points, while the draw accounted for 26.5% in the rest of scenarios.

Bournemouth vs Man Utd Predicted Lineups

Bournemouth: Djordje Petrović, Adrien Truffert, Marcos Senesi, James Hill, Álex Jiménez, Ryan Christie, Alex Scott, Rayan, Junior Kroupi, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson.

Head Coach: Andoni Iraola

Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Luke Shaw, Harry Maguire, Leny Yoro, Diogo Dalot, Kobbie Mainoo, Casemiro, Matheus Cunha, Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo, Benjamin Šeško.

Head Coach: Michael Carrick

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Friday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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Go down the list of the NBA’s greatest scorers and it stands out how so many are immediately recognized without their full name.

Kobe. Kareem. KD.

Wilt. Shaq.

MJ.

And, yes, LeBron, the No. 1 scorer in NBA history.

The following list is just for the regular season and does not include contributions in the playoffs.

Most Career Points in NBA Regular Season

* Player still active (point total through March 19, 2026)

1. LeBron James – 43,229 points*

The NBA’s all-time highest scorer, James overtook the previous record of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Feb. 7, 2023. Since then, he has kept racking up the points and went past 40,000 on March 2, 2024 in the Los Angeles Lakers’ loss against the Denver Nuggets.

The 39-year-old scored 15,251 points in his first spell with the Cleveland Cavaliers, before adding 7,919 with the Miami Heat in his four years there. Another 7,868 followed after his return to Cleveland, and he’s still adding more with the Los Angeles Lakers.

James has also surpassed 1,600 regular-season games and is nearing 12,000 assists – far more than anyone else on this list (fourth all time) – and has yet to indicate that retirement is on the immediate horizon.

How many points will he end up with? Who knows? But he’s increasing the separation from Abdul-Jabbar.

2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 38,387 points

Prior to LeBron, Kareem was the man who held the all-time points record, having done so since 1984 before his eventual retirement in 1989.

A six-time NBA champion, Abdul-Jabbar also collected six NBA MVP awards and two NBA Finals MVP awards. He finished his career with 1,560 appearances, the second-most in NBA history behind Robert Parish (1,611).

The breakdown of his points total was split between the two teams he represented, with 14,211 points scored during his six years with the Milwaukee Bucks and 24,176 points for the Lakers. Abdul-Jabbar had an overall average of 24.6 points per game.

3. Karl Malone – 36,928 points

The Utah Jazz legend and 14-time NBA All-Star may not have won any championships, but it was not for a lack of point-scoring.

Malone’s 18 years in Utah saw him win two NBA MVP awards, likely making several teams regret allowing the Jazz to pick him 13th in the 1985 NBA Draft.

The vast majority of his points were of course scored for the Jazz (36,374), but Malone added another 554 with the Lakers in his final season before retirement in 2004, ending with an average of 25 points per game in his career.

4. Kobe Bryant – 33,643 points

The top four on this list all played for the Lakers at some point, but Bryant is the only one to spend his entire career with the team. He spent all of his 20 seasons in Los Angeles.

Like Malone, he ended his career with a healthy average of 25 points per game, but he also won five NBA championships, one NBA MVP award and two NBA Finals MVP awards.

Bryant’s best season came in the 2005-06 season when he totaled 2,832 points in 80 games, an average of 35.4 PPG.

5. Michael Jordan – 32,292 points

How can the player considered by many to be the greatest of all time only be fifth in this list? Well, mainly because he didn’t play as many games as anyone above him.

Jordan played 1,072 regular season games in his career, at least 274 games fewer than any of the four players to score more career points.

In an incredible career that included six NBA championships, six NBA MVP awards and five NBA Finals MVP awards, Jordan famously played the vast majority of his career with the Chicago Bulls before two years with the Washington Wizards after a brief comeback.

His points-per-game average of 30.1 is the most in these rankings, while his most productive season was in 1986-87 when he scored 3,041 points in 82 games at an incredible average of 37.1 PPG.

6. Kevin Durant – 32,242 points*

Along with James, Durant is one of two active players in the top 10. Durant continues to put up the points in the NBA, currently doing so as part of the Houston Rockets.

Nine years with the Seattle SuperSonics/Oklahoma City Thunder saw Durant establish himself as one of the NBA greats, twice averaging over 30.0 points in the regular season. However, it was with the Golden State Warriors that he won his two NBA championships to date in just three years before he left for the Brooklyn Nets in 2019. He missed the entire 2019-20 season, but returned in 2020, playing two-and-a-half seasons for the Nets prior to joining the Suns in 2023.

Durant only passed 1,000 career regular-season games in November 2023, and has time to work his way up this list before he hangs it up. He passed 30,000 points in the Phoenix Suns’ defeat to the Grizzlies in February 2025. He joined the Rockets five months later.

7. Dirk Nowitzki – 31,560 points

Jason Kidd has stated his belief that Luka Doncic is the best to ever play for the Dallas Mavericks, adding: “He’s better than Dirk.” That is some praise given Nowitzki has scored the sixth-most points in NBA regular season history.

The German star played 21 seasons and 1,522 regular season games for the Mavs, a one-team player in the NBA (having played for DJK Würzburg prior to his move to Dallas in 1998) who won an NBA championship and NBA Finals MVP in 2011. He also claimed the NBA MVP award in 2007 and was a 14-time NBA All-Star.

Nowitzki has the lowest PPG average on this list (20.7), but given his consistency and longevity, it’s not a surprise to see him here. Let’s see if Doncic can join him one day.

8. Wilt Chamberlain – 31,419 points

The man holds so many NBA individual records that it’s almost unsettling to see him down in eighth on this list.

Chamberlain won two NBA championships, four NBA MVP awards and one NBA Finals MVP award. Spells with the Philadelphia/San Francisco Warriors, the Philadelphia 76ers and the Lakers saw him break the record, which he held before Abdul-Jabbar passed him in 1984.

Chamberlain played the fewest games of the top nine players in this list (1,045) and, like Jordan, ended his career with a PPG average of 30.1.

9. James Harden – 29,140 points*

Harden spent three years coming off the bench for the Thunder but took off as an elite scorer after a trade to the Houston Rockets prior to the 2012-13 season.

He received MVP votes in the next nine seasons and had three consecutive seasons averaging at least 30 points per game from 2017-18 to 2019-20. His 2,818 points in 2018-19 were the most by a player in a single season since Kobe Bryant in 2005-06.

Longevity played a role in Harden’s ascent as well, as he’s remained a volume scorer well into his 30s. He passed Carmelo Anthony for the 10th-most points ever with a pair of free throws against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Dec. 6, 2025.

10. Shaquille O’Neal – 28,596 points

Now a much-beloved basketball analyst, O’Neal had quite the career beforehand. He represented six teams during a 19-year tenure in the NBA, where he won four NBA championships, three NBA Finals MVP awards and an NBA MVP award.

Shaq started his career with four years at the Orlando Magic, before eight with the Lakers. Three and a half years with the Miami Heat were followed by short spells with the Phoenix Suns, the Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics before his eventual retirement in 2011. His 1,207 overall games saw him average 23.7 PPG.

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Longevity in the NBA isn’t just about talent – it must be blended with resilience, adaptability, and passion, and that unique combination is only found in a special group of players.

While many players leave their mark, only a few stick around long enough to rewrite the record books.

Battling through injuries, changing eras and evolving roles, these iron men showed up night after night with unmatched consistency and durability.

Here’s a look at the players who have logged the most games in NBA history.

* Through March 19, 2026

T1. LeBron James – 1,611*

James passed Kareem in his 22nd season for second on the all-time career games played list. He scored at least 10 points in 1,297 consecutive games before the streak ended in December 2025 (the next-longest streak was Michael Jordan’s 866 games in a row). Records such as games played seem to be falling like dominos for LeBron, who also finds himself in the top six all-time in points, assists, steals, free throws and minutes played.

T1. Robert Parish – 1,611

Parish won four NBA titles and was named an All-Star in nine of his 21 NBA seasons. ‘The Chief” then held the league record for most games long after his retirement following the 1996-97 season. He only failed to play at least 72 games in that final season.

3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 1,560

Before the inconceivable longevity of Parish, Abdul-Jabbar was once the NBA’s all-time leader in minutes played, points scored and blocked shots in addition to the career games played record. He played in 20 seasons, ending with the 1988-89 campaign.

4. Vince Carter – 1,541

An eight-time All-Star, Carter was the first player in league history to play in 22 NBA seasons, doing so with eight different teams. He was especially known for his dunks and athleticism, but was an effective scorer from all three levels.

5. Dirk Nowitzki – 1,522

Nowitzki spent his entire 21-season career with the Dallas Mavericks. The revolutionary power forward helped redefine the role of a big man with his shooting touch.

6. John Stockton – 1,504

7. Karl Malone – 1,476

8. Kevin Garnett – 1,462

9. Kevin Willis – 1,424

10. Jason Terry – 1,410

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All-Time UEFA Champions League Top Scorers

Cristiano Ronaldo: 140
Lionel Messi: 129
Robert Lewandowski: 109
Karim Benzema: 90
Raúl: 71
Kylian Mbappé: 68
Thomas Müller: 57
Erling Haaland: 57
Ruud van Nistelrooy: 56
Thierry Henry: 50
Mohamed Salah: 50
Harry Kane: 50
Andriy Shevchenko: 48
Zlatan Ibrahimovic: 48
Filippo Inzaghi: 46
Didier Drogba: 44
Neymar: 43
Antoine Griezmann: 43
Alessandro Del Piero: 42
Sergio Agüero: 41

All goal totals exclude UCL qualifiers.

Cristiano Ronaldo: 140 Goals

Cristiano Ronaldo is the all-time leading scorer in the UEFA Champions League with 140 goals in 183 appearances.

With the Portuguese now playing at Saudi Arabian club Al Nassr, it’s unlikely that he’ll add to this tally, which he accumulated over spells at Manchester United (21), Real Madrid (105) and Juventus (14).

Ronaldo also holds the record for most goals in a single Champions League season with his 17 goals for Real Madrid in 2013-14, as they won the UCL trophy by beating Atlético Madrid in the final. He followed that up with 16 goals two years later in 2015-16.

The Portuguese legend has won the competition top scorer award on seven different occasions, which is a record across both the European Cup and Champions League eras.

He scored in a record 93 different UCL matches, 51% of his appearances in the competition, while eight of those saw him score a hat-trick, which is a record he shares with Lionel Messi.

Ronaldo found the net against 38 different opponents in his Champions League career, with his 10 goals versus Juventus the most by any single player against an opponent in the history of the competition.

Lionel Messi: 129 Goals

Lionel Messi is the second highest scorer in UEFA Champions League history with 129 goals. He does, however, hold the record of scoring the most goals for a single club in UCL history, with 120 of his 129 goals coming at Barcelona.

He added nine more after moving to Ligue 1 giants Paris Saint-Germain in the summer of 2021, but it’s unlikely he’ll ever get a chance to add to his goal tally following his move to MLS club Inter Miami.

Messi’s record of scoring against 40 different opponents in the UEFA Champions League is more than anyone else, ahead of Ronaldo on 38. Nine of Messi’s goals came against Arsenal (7%), his favourite opponent in the UCL.

Overall, 2022 World Cup winner Messi has scored in 18 different seasons of UCL action, netting in every campaign since 2005-06 after failing to score in his only appearance for Barcelona in his debut campaign of 2004-05. He shares this record with Karim Benzema, but the French striker managed to score in all 18 of the UCL seasons that he played in.

Messi may share the UCL record for the most hat-tricks in the competition with Cristiano Ronaldo (eight), but he once did something the Portuguese never managed: score five goals in a single Champions League match. He managed this in Barcelona’s 7-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen in March 2012 as part of his record-breaking 2011-12 season in which he scored 73 goals in 60 competitive club appearances.

Robert Lewandowski: 109 Goals

Robert Lewandowski reached his century of UEFA Champions League goals on 26 November, scoring for Barcelona against French club Brest.

Of his 109 UCL goals, 69 came at Bayern Munich after he arrived from Borussia Dortmund. With 23 goals for Barcelona, it means that he is just the second player in Champions League history to score 10+ goals for three different clubs after Cristiano Ronaldo.

He holds Bayern’s record for the most goals in Europe, ahead of Gerd Müller (65). He also holds the Bundesliga club’s record for most goals in a single season in this competition, netting 15 times in 2019-20 en route to Bayern lifting the trophy. In doing so, he became the first Polish player to finish as the top scorer in a season of UCL/European Cup action.

His 108th and 109th goals came against Newcastle United in the last 16 of the 2025-26 UCL, meaning he broke the record for the most different opponents scored against in the competition (41).

Karim Benzema: 90 Goals

With his transfer to Al-Ittihad in Saudi Arabia in June 2023, Karim Benzema looks very unlikely to add to his tally of 90 UEFA Champions League goals.

Benzema has scored in the most UCL seasons without having failed to find the net in one, scoring in all 18 seasons of the competition since first appearing in 2005-06 at Lyon.

The French striker won the Champions League top scorer award for the first time ever in 2021-22, with his 15 goals helping Real Madrid to the title, although he failed to score in the final win over Liverpool in Paris.

His 78 goals for Real Madrid in the competition is only behind Cristiano Ronaldo’s 105.

Raúl: 71 Goals

Former Spain international Raúl is Real Madrid’s third-highest scorer in UEFA Champions League history (66), while his overall tally of 71 is the fifth most of all players in the competition.

Raúl was the competition’s leading scorer until November 2014, when he was eventually overtaken by Messi and Ronaldo, while the Real Madrid great was the first player to reach 50 UCL goals, doing so in September 2005. In fact, he was the first Madrid player to reach 50 goals in Europe after Alfredo Di Stéfano had previously scored 49 times in European competition for the Spanish side.

His final season in the competition came at German side FC Schalke 04 in 2010-11, when he scored five times as a 33-year-old. This took his overall tally to 71 in the competition, which is more than double any other Spanish player in the competition’s history: Fernando Morientes is the closest to him with 33 goals.

Other Players with 50+ UCL Goals

Kylian Mbappé: 68 Goals

Kylian Mbappé reached 50 UEFA Champions League goals in Real Madrid’s meeting with Atalanta on 10 December 2024.

Aged just 25 years and 356 days old when doing it, he became the second youngest player to reach the landmark after Lionel Messi, who was 24 years and 284 days old when he hit the 50-goal landmark for Barcelona back in April 2012 versus Milan.

By reaching the half-century inside 79 games, Mbappé also became the fourth quickest to the UCL landmark, surpassed by only Ruud van Nistelrooy (62 appearances) and Lionel Messi (66) and Robert Lewandowski (77) in the rankings.

Thomas Müller: 57 Goals

Since Thomas Müller‘s competition debut in 2008-09, he’s scored 57 goals and has 25 assists.

He’s won the Champions League on two occasions with Bayern Munich, in 2012-13 and 2019-20.

Erling Haaland: 57 Goals

Erling Haaland made history in September 2025 when he scored his 50th Champions League goal, doing so faster than anyone in the competition’s history by some distance.

His goals scored for Salzburg, Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City in the Champions League saw him get to 50 in just 49 games, smashing the previous record held by Ruud van Nistelrooy of 62 games.

He scored two more on Matchday 2 of the 2025-26 season against Monaco, meaning his 52 goals were the most inside a player’s first 50 appearances in the competition, overtaking Van Nistelrooy’s previous record of 43 in his first 50.

Ruud van Nistelrooy: 56 Goals

Dutch striker Ruud van Nistelrooy scored 56 goals overall in the UEFA Champions League, but that tally could have been greater had he played more UCL action earlier in his career. He made just 11 appearances at PSV before his 25th birthday and debut for Manchester United in the competition.

No player reached 50 UEFA Champions League goals quicker than Van Nistelrooy (62 appearances), but he was 31 years old when he reached that landmark.

He scored 35 goals in the Champions League for Manchester United – a club record, ahead of Wayne Rooney (30) and Ryan Giggs (28).

Thierry Henry: 50 Goals

Thierry Henry scored 50 goals in the UEFA Champions League across spells at three clubs: Arsenal (35), Barcelona (eight) and Monaco (seven).

He began life as a UCL player in style, with six goals across his first five appearances at Monaco as a 20-year-old, before moving to Arsenal in 1999-00. His 35 goals for the Gunners make him their highest-scoring player in Champions League/European Cup history.

Mohamed Salah: 50 Goals

Mohamed Salah scored his 50th UEFA Champions League goal in Liverpool’s win over Galatasaray in March 2026. With that strike, he became the first African player to hit the landmark in the competition.

Harry Kane: 50 Goals

Harry Kane scored his 49th and 50th UEFA Champions League goals in Bayern Munich’s home win over Atalanta in March 2026.

Kane reached the landmark in 66 Champions League appearances – only two players have ever reached 50 in fewer games; Erling Haaland (49) and Ruud van Nistelrooy (62), while Kane’s 66 is the same number as it took Lionel Messi to do so.

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Liverpool progressed to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League with a convincing 4-0 win over Galatasaray at Anfield in the second leg of their last-16 tie.

Mohamed Salah was front and centre for Arne Slot’s side throughout the night, missing a first-half penalty before assisting for Hugo Ekitiké and then eventually scoring his 50th Champions League goal.

After a first-leg defeat in Turkey, Liverpool knew they needed to find goals to make it through to face reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain in the next round. It didn’t take them long to assert their dominance on the night.

They drew level in the tie in the 25th minute, and it was through arguably their best-performing player of the season, Dominik Szoboszlai.

A clever corner from Alexis Mac Allister saw the ball fall to the Hungarian on the edge of the box, and the midfielder clinically finished to score his 12th goal of the season in all competitions.

Just minutes later, the Reds should have gone ahead for the first time in the tie. Salah was sent through on goal, but the Egyptian – who has suffered poor form in recent months – showed a lack of confidence in his finish, attempting a chip but seeing his attempt saved.

Salah missed an even simpler chance make it 2-0, and an opportunity to become the first African to reach 50 UCL goals, in first-half added time, seeing his penalty kick saved by Ugurcan Çakir.

There was still time for Çakir to be called upon twice more before the half-time break, making stops from Salah and then Florian Wirtz on the rebound just seconds later, to keep the tie level at 1-1.

The visitors suffered a big blow at half-time, when 19-goal top scorer Victor Osimhen was forced off with an arm injury, suffered early in the first half in a fair innocuous collision with Ibrahima Konaté. It was a surprise it took so long to replace him, with his injury obviously causing him issues, and he had fewer touches than any other player on the pitch in the first half (8).

Liverpool went ahead in the tie six minutes after the half-time break, with Salah turning provider for Ekitiké to score his 17th goal of the season. The Egyptian’s pinpoint pass found the French striker at the back post, and he made no mistake from close range.

Just 114 seconds later, Liverpool made it 3-0 with Ryan Gravenberch scoring his fifth goal of 2025-26 and making it his best goalscoring campaign at the Reds across his three seasons.

Salah was finally rewarded with a goal, and reached the landmark 50 in the competition, with a superb curling strike from outside the box in the 62nd minute. It was his sixth shot of the night, but arguably his best. He nearly added another just minutes later, but saw his close-range strike hit the crossbar.

Liverpool will face stiffer tests than this if they want to reach the final, with Real Madrid or Bayern Munich awaiting in the semi-finals if they manage to progress past PSG in the next round. The ease at which they dispatched Galatasaray tonight will give them some confidence of doing that, at least.

Liverpool vs Galatasaray Timeline

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Liverpool vs Galatasaray stats from their UEFA Champions League last-16 second-leg meeting at Anfield on Wednesday 18 March 2026.

The match centre below includes match commentary as it happened, team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Liverpool 4-0 Galatasaray Opta Facts

• Mohamed Salah became the first African player to score 50 goals in the UEFA Champions League (two for Basel, one for Roma, 47 for Liverpool).
• Salah recorded his 200th and 201st goal involvements for Liverpool at Anfield in all competitions (140 goals, 61 assists), reaching that tally in just 211 appearances.
• Liverpool overturned a first leg deficit to progress from a two-legged knockout tie in the UEFA Champions League for just the third time (in eight attempts), after the 2006-07 semi-final vs Chelsea and 2018-19 semi-final vs Barcelona.
• Liverpool have scored 14 goals from set-pieces (excl. pens) in all competitions in 2026 – the joint-most of any side in Europe’s big-five leagues this calendar year (Arsenal also 14).
• Galatasaray have now lost 18 of their 23 away games in the knockout stage of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (W3 D2), including six of seven at the last 16 stage (W1).

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The knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League tend to be tight, tense affairs, with Europe’s top teams going head-to-head.

But throughout Champions League history, there have been some two-legged ties so one-sided they’ve entered the record books.

Here, we rank the biggest aggregate wins in Champions League history, featuring some of the most dominant knockout-stage performances ever seen in the competition

Biggest Aggregate Wins in Champions League History

+11 on aggregate: Bayern Munich 12-1 Sporting CP (Last 16 2008-09)
+10 on aggregate: Paris Saint-Germain 10-0 Brest (Play-Offs 2024-25)
+8 on aggregate: Bayern Munich 10-2 Atalanta (Last 16 2025-26)
+8 on aggregate: Lyon 10-2 Werder Bremen (Last 16 2004-05)
+8 on aggregate: Barcelona 10-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Last 16 2011-12)
+8 on aggregate: Bayern Munich 10-2 Arsenal (Last 16 2016-17)
+8 on aggregate: Manchester City 10-2 Schalke (Last 16 2018-19)

Bayern Munich vs Sporting CP (12-1)
2008-09 Last 16

Bayern Munich hold the record for the biggest aggregate win in Champions League history, thrashing Sporting CP 12-1 over two legs in the 2008-09 round of 16.

Franck Ribéry and Luca Toni both scored twice as Bayern secured a 5-0 first-leg victory in Lisbon, before destroying the Portuguese side 7-1 in the return leg in Munich to secure an 11-goal aggregate victory.

Despite their dominance, Bayern’s Champions League campaign ended in the quarter-finals, losing 5-1 on aggregate to an all-conquering Barcelona side led by Lionel Messi, who went on to lift the trophy.

PSG vs Brest (10-0)
2024-25 Play-Offs

PSG’s 10-goal aggregate win over Brest in the 2024-25 Champions League play-off round ranks as the second-biggest two-legged victory in the competition’s history.

A routine 3-0 win in the first leg set the stage for a ruthless second-leg performance, as PSG hammered their fellow Ligue 1 side 7-0 at home, with Bradley Barcola, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué and Gonçalo Ramos grabbing a goal and an assist each.

The 7-0 scoreline was the second-biggest win by a team against an opponent from the same nation in any European competition, behind only Real Madrid’s 8-0 thrashing of Sevilla in the 1957-58 European Cup quarter-finals.

Bayern Munich vs Atalanta (10-2)
2025-26 Last 16

In winning 6-1 away in the first leg, Bayern Munich inflicted Atalanta’s joint-heaviest ever defeat in European football, level with their 5-0 defeat to Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League in November 2020.

The second leg went only slightly better, with the Serie A side losing 4-1 in Munich.

Eight different Bayern players scored over the two-legged tie: Michael Olise (2), Harry Kane (2), Josip Stanisic, Jamal Musiala, Luis Díaz, Nicolas Jackson, Lennart Karl and Serge Gnabry.

Lyon vs Werder Bremen (10-2)
2004-05 Last 16

Lyon’s 10-2 aggregate demolition of Werder Bremen in the 2004-05 Champions League round of 16 remains one of the biggest knockout wins in tournament history.

Former Arsenal striker Sylvain Wiltord opened the scoring in the first leg before Mahamadou Diarra doubled the lead and Juninho Pernambucano curled in a trademark free-kick to make it 3-0.

Wiltord was at it again in the return leg, bagging a hat-trick, while Michael Essien – who later moved to Chelsea – scored twice. Florent Malouda, another who’d go on to Chelsea, also found the net in a rampant 7-2 second-leg thrashing.

Lyon’s European journey ended in the quarter-finals, where they were eliminated by PSV on penalties.

Barcelona vs Bayer Leverkusen (10-2)
2011-12 Last 16

Barcelona’s last-16 tie with Bayer Leverkusen will always be remembered for one historic individual performance. A 3-1 first-leg win in Germany put Barça in control, but it was the second leg at Camp Nou that will never be forgotten.

Lionel Messi produced one of the greatest individual displays in Champions League history, becoming the first player to score five goals in a single match as Barcelona dismantled Leverkusen 7-1.

Messi’s record has since been matched by Luiz Adriano (for Shakhtar Donetsk against BATE Borisov in 2014) and Erling Haaland (for Manchester City against RB Leipzig in 2023).

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal (10-2)
2016-17 Last 16

Another iconic Champions League tie. Despite topping their group in 2016-17, Arsenal were handed a tough last-16 draw against Bayern Munich – and the result was a 10-2 aggregate humiliation that only intensified scrutiny on manager Arsène Wenger.

The first leg in Germany saw Arsenal briefly hold hope when Alexis Sánchez cancelled out Arjen Robben’s opener. But Bayern turned it on in the second half, with Robert Lewandowski restoring their lead before Thiago Alcântara netted twice. Thomas Müller completed the 5-1 rout late on.

The second leg at the Emirates also ended with a 5-1 scoreline. Theo Walcott gave Arsenal an early lead, but a second-half collapse saw Bayern score five unanswered goals to complete a 10-2 aggregate thrashing. This remains one of the Gunners’ most painful European exits.

Manchester City vs Schalke (10-2)
2018-19 Last 16

Manchester City’s round-of-16 clash with Schalke in 2018-19 was competitive for one leg, and it was anything but in the second.

City edged the first meeting 3-2 in Gelsenkirchen, needing late goals from Sergio Agüero and Raheem Sterling to turn the game around.

The second leg, however, was a completely different story. Agüero struck twice early on before Leroy Sané, Sterling, Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden and Gabriel Jesus added to the tally in a 7-0 demolition at the Etihad.

City’s campaign ended in heartbreak as they were knocked out in the quarter-finals by Tottenham in a dramatic tie that saw VAR deny them a last-minute winner. Spurs would go on to reach the final, losing to Liverpool.

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Newcastle United became the latest Premier League club to be knocked out of the UEFA Champions League this week following a disastrous second half at Camp Nou versus Barcelona.

This 7-2 defeat in Spain saw them concede seven times in a single competitive match for the first time since a 7-3 league defeat to Arsenal in December 2012, 609 games ago.

Eddie Howe’s side caused Barcelona numerous problems before half-time, with Anthony Elanga twice scoring an equaliser on the break, but four goals without reply in the second half sent the Magpies out of Europe.

Barcelona, who started with their youngest ever team in a Champions League knockout match, were exceptional in the second half, with Raphinha the star of the show, scoring twice and assisting two more for his teammates.

Frantic Start

Although Newcastle started the brighter of the two sides, it was Barcelona who took the lead in the tie for the first time when their Brazilian captain scored in the sixth minute.

After a slip from Lewis Hall, the ball found its way to Raphinha who played a one-two with Fermín López before taking his time to pick a spot in the corner of the net with a side-foot finish.

It continued an excellent four-day spell for him, following an excellent hat-trick in Sunday’s 5-2 La Liga win over Sevilla, but it was just his second strike in the Champions League in 2025-26.

Much has been said about Barcelona’s high line under Hansi Flick, and Newcastle were able to expose their defence with their equaliser in the 14th minute.

Hall picked the ball up midway in the Barcelona half and was able to cross the ball into Elanga, and the Swede, still with work to do, managed to compose himself and slot the ball under Joan García to level the tie once again.

It was just his second goal in his last 52 appearances in all competitions across his time at the Magpies and Nottingham Forest, while it was only his second Champions League goal – his first since netting for Manchester United versus Atlético Madrid in February 2022.

Barcelona needed less than four minutes to retake the lead, and Newcastle only had themselves to blame after switching off from a free-kick. Gerard Martín was given acres of space in the box to head into the path of Marc Bernal, who converted from close range without much pressure.

Eighteen-year-old Bernal’s goal made him the 14th teenager to score for Barcelona in the UCL, a competition record alongside Ajax.

Elanga doubled his tally on the night with another equaliser on 28 minutes. An attempted backheel from Lamine Yamal didn’t come off, and he gave the ball away to Hall, who fed Harvey Barnes. The winger crossed low across the six-yard area and despite Hall agonisingly missing the return ball after sliding in, the Swedish forward was at the back post to tap into the net.

He became only the second player to score twice in a Champions League away match at Camp Nou for an English club, after Dwight Yorke for Man Utd in November 1998.

Barcelona should have taken the lead once again in first-half added time, but somehow neither Robert Lewandowski not Yamal could convert from close range after Aaron Ramsdale parried a cross into their path in added time.

The La Liga leaders did end a breathtaking first half with a lead, however, was completed after Kieran Trippier was adjudged to have pulled back Raphinha when the forward looked likely to score. Yamal made no mistake this time, despite Ramsdale getting a hand on his spot-kick, to become the youngest player to reach 10 goals in the Champions League (18 years, 248 days) and give Barcelona a 3-2 lead at half-time.

Second-Half Dominance

Just six minutes into the second half, Barcelona opened up a two-goal lead in the tie after a quick passing move from back to front saw Raphinha send López clear on goal, and the Spanish international made no mistake.

The tie was put beyond doubt when Lewandowski headed in Barcelona’s fifth of the night at the far post following a Raphinha corner and then, just five minutes later, added another following more excellence from Yamal to set him up.

Lewandowski’s brace took him onto 108 Champions League goals, with the legendary forward behind only Lionel Messi (129) and Cristiano Ronaldo (140) in the all-time competition rankings.

Raphinha added another goal to make it 7-2 on 72 minutes, making it his first UCL game with as many as four goal involvements (two goals, two assists).

With that seventh strike of the night, it was joint-most goals ever conceded by an English team in a game in major European competition, after Tottenham in their 7-2 defeat to Bayern Munich in October 2019.

More Woe for Premier League Clubs

There wasn’t much expectation that Newcastle would make it through to the quarter-finals after drawing the home leg 1-1, but the way in which they completely collapsed in the second half leaves them in a fragile state going into Sunday’s midday meeting with rivals Sunderland.

The Magpies follow Manchester City and Chelsea in exiting the Champions League this week, while Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool have it all to do to make it through their ties later in the day.

For Barcelona, they progress to the next round, where they’ll likely face La Liga rivals Atlético Madrid over two legs. With a 13-point gap between the two sides in the league, and Barcelona hitting their stride in the closing months of the 2025-26 season, few would bet against them.

Barcelona vs Newcastle Timeline

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Barcelona vs Newcastle stats from their UEFA Champions League last-16 second-leg meeting at Camp Nou on Wednesday 18 March 2026.

The match centre below includes match commentary as it happened, team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle Opta Facts

• Barcelona’s 7-2 win against Newcastle is the biggest margin of victory for a Spanish side against an English opponent since May 1966, which was also a five-goal win by the Catalans (Barcelona 5-0 Chelsea in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup).
• Newcastle’s five-goal defeat is the joint-heaviest suffered by an English side in a European Cup/UEFA Champions League match, along with Leicester 0-5 Porto (December 2016) and Tottenham 2-7 Bayern Munich (October 2019).
• Newcastle’s seven goals conceded is the joint-most ever by an English team in a major European competition match, along with Tottenham in their 7-2 defeat to Bayern Munich in October 2019.
• Raphinha now has 33 goal involvements (19 goals, 14 assists) in 33 UEFA Champions League games; only Erling Haaland (22), Ruud van Nistelrooy (28), Kylian Mbappé (30), and Luis Suárez (31) reached 30+ in fewer appearances in the competition (Neymar level with Raphinha on 33).
• Robert Lewandowski became the oldest ever goalscorer in a UEFA Champions League knockout stage match (37y 209d), as well as the oldest player to score 2+ in any game in the competition. 

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As the ball dropped to him, Eberechi Eze cushioned it, spun and lashed into the top-left corner from 25 yards practically all in one motion.

A goal-of-the-season contender and the strike that nudged Arsenal in front en route to booking a place in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals, it was a headline grabber.

Only, much of the focus on Eze in the aftermath of the Gunners’ 2-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday focused on an entirely different side to his game, and more generally on adaptation to life at the Emirates Stadium.

The thing is, his goal, although an undeniably picture-perfect example of his brilliant technical ability, wasn’t that surprising. We know he’s capable of that, and long-range shooting has always been a real weapon of his.

But talk after the game quickly turned to the less glamorous side and grittier aspects of football, and it would seem this is especially important with respect to Eze’s recent rise to prominence.

Let’s not forget, it wasn’t so long ago that Eze’s debut season was shaping up to be rather underwhelming on an individual level.

There was a spell across December and January when Eze was an unused substitute five times in a spell of seven matches across all competitions. He then only featured for 12 minutes against Liverpool on 8 January, before playing the full game against Championship side Portsmouth in the FA Cup.

That cup clash was one of just two matches between the start of December and 20 January – a period that saw Arsenal play 13 times – in which Eze featured for more than an hour.

Looking specifically at the Premier League, which most would regard as Arsenal’s primary focus and priority, Eze went four games without playing a single minute, followed by a five-match spell that yielded him just 87 minutes in total.

When he was named in the lineup to face Brentford on 12 February, he was making his first league start in a day shy of two months. And even then, he was taken off at half-time.

The turning point for Eze seemed to be the north London derby 10 days later. Having scored a hat-trick against Tottenham – whom he almost joined last summer – earlier in the season, he was their tormentor again at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, netting twice in a 4-1 win.

While it probably isn’t quite as simple as Eze not fitting in at Arsenal before that game and then suddenly being ideal from that point, it does at least give us a yardstick to measure against.

But as noted before, it’s not so much Eze’s on-ball quality that’s seemingly aided his standing at the club.

There has been an uptick in some of his off-ball metrics in this time, and it hasn’t gone unnoticed.

After Tuesday’s win over Leverkusen, Arteta was asked specifically if he’s noted an improvement in Eze’s pressing. The response was unequivocal.

“Without that, you don’t have any chance to play in this team, because everybody does it, and that’s the magic of it and the reason why we are so consistent in winning matches and preventing the opponent to score,” Arteta said. “[Eze] can do it – if he couldn’t do it, I would never demand it. He can do it, he’s willing to do it, and he’s doing it better and better every day.”

The numbers back up this assertion, too.

Looking only at games in the Premier League and Champions League, his output when it comes to pressures has increased over the past month.

Since the start of that Tottenham game, Eze has averaged 67.4 pressures (approaching the player in possession aiming to win possession/limit passing options) per 90 minutes. Before that derby win, Eze averaged 58.5 pressures per 90.

It’s a similar story with respect to high-intensity pressures (pressures within two metres of the opponent). Prior to the win at Spurs, he averaged 38.7 per 90; over the past month, that has improved to 47.2.

As such, it’s curious to see how his frequency of possession regains per 90 in those two competitions has also increased significantly since that north London derby, going from 1.8 to 3.8.

We should point out that we are looking at two sample sizes that are considerably different: seven matches versus 27.  

But, while we urge caution about the idea of Eze’s playing style transforming as if by the flick of a switch, the numbers do offer some support to Arteta’s assessment.

Where Eze is playing ought to be taken into account as well, because there does seem to be a greater localisation down the centre of the pitch more recently than before, as the graphics below show.

Above all else, however, could it be that Eze just needed time? Would it be so unusual if a player took a few months to adapt to his new surroundings and teammates?

The environment at Arsenal is hugely different to what Eze experienced at Crystal Palace, where he was very much a big fish in a small(er) pond.

“He is playing I think every three days now,” Arteta added on Tuesday. “He has a rhythm, an understanding with his teammates as well, [an understanding about] what we want, and especially his level of activity, with and without the ball, in the spaces that he moves.”

At Palace, Eze was the maverick, afforded considerable freedom because he was often their most influential attacker.  

It’s important Arsenal don’t coach that side of the game out of Eze, as freedom likely helped him assert his long-range shooting as such a strength.

Clearly, that is still alive and well, judging from his strike against Bayer Leverkusen, while his six attempts from outside the box against Everton at the weekend was the joint most by anyone in a Premier League game this season.

“The purpose that he’s showing every time he’s in and around the box as well, it’s a reason why he’s here, to create those kinds of moments,” his coach said about Eze’s glorious strike against Leverkusen.

It’s a useful weapon to have in the armoury, particularly when it comes to facing low blocks, as Arsenal frequently do.

The key distinction in that quote, however, is probably the fact Arteta said “a reason” – it’s not the reason.

Such moments are sensational, memorable and potentially decisive, but if we’ve learnt anything from Arteta’s Arsenal over the years, it’s that no one is excused from grafting.

Recent signs suggest Eze is on a similar wavelength, and if you can develop a maverick to buy into the grittier parts of the game, their value to the collective can reach a whole new level.

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It isn’t quite a prerequisite, but to win the Champions League, you are almost certainly going to need big-game players.

Cristiano Ronaldo is arguably the biggest big-game player the competition has ever seen, and he played a significant role in Real Madrid’s domination throughout the middle part of the 2010s.

After winning four European titles in his last five years at the club, Madrid then went three years without winning it, having lost their best clutch player. Their two successes since have come with their new key man stepping up.

Vinícius Júnior has become the main man for Madrid ever since. He scored the winning goal in the 2018 final win over Liverpool for their next title, and got another in their most recent victory, over Borussia Dortmund at Wembley in 2024.

This week, he stepped up yet again, his match-winning brace at Manchester City securing Madrid’s safe passage through to the quarter-finals. He now has 28 goal involvements (16 goals, 12 assists) in the knockout stages of the Champions League – the joint-sixth-highest total in the competition’s history.

Ronaldo is, predictably, clear at the top of this list, with 82, ahead of several other legends of the game, the chasing pack led by Lionel Messi (61).

Vinícius has moved level with Madrid teammate Kylian Mbappé, and those two could play a big part in their club’s aims to add to their record 15 European Cup/Champions League titles this season.

Madrid have stuttered in the title race in La Liga and were earlier this year eliminated from the Copa del Rey by second-tier Albacete, so the Champions League may represent their best chance of silverware this season, especially given their history as a club that performs on the big stage in Europe in spite of failures elsewhere.

“The best part of the season is now upon us,” Vinícius said after the second-leg win at the Etihad on Tuesday. “We need to step up. Hopefully, in the next games, I can keep scoring and giving assists to help.”

However, those two Madrid stars aren’t the only two clutch players still fighting for Champions League glory in 2025-26. Another was also in action on Tuesday night – and in the goals – elsewhere in England.

Chelsea were hoping for a fast start at Stamford Bridge as they sought to overturn a three-goal first-leg deficit against reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia had other ideas, though, and took the wind out of Chelsea’s sails inside six minutes, controlling a long ball from goalkeeper Matvey Safonov while under pressure from Mamadou Sarr before finishing calmly. In doing so, he settled any PSG nerves and completely ended any hope of a Chelsea comeback.

Kvaratskhelia may have won the Champions League last season, but he is hardly a legend of the competition. This was only his 12th ever Champions League goal but, crucially, it was his seventh in the knockout stages.

That means 58.3% of his Champions League goals have come in knockout matches. Of players to score at least 10 goals in the competition’s history, only six have scored a higher proportion in knockout-stage games.

Last season, he scored all three of his goals in the knockouts, including one in the final against Inter. This season, he already has four in the knockouts, having struck twice off the bench in the first leg against Chelsea, while he also got one in the play-off round against Monaco.

There are a few other current PSG players who also appear high up in the list of players with the highest proportion of goals in the knockouts, in Marquinhos (54.5%), Vitinha (50.0%) and Ousmane Dembélé (45.5%), showing just how many players Luis Enrique has at his disposal who can perform on the big stage.

Barcelona, too, have some of the most effective knockout-stage players in Champions League history on their books.

Of players with at least 10 goal involvements in knockout games in the competition, Raphinha boasts the best rate of providing goals or assists. Over the course of his (admittedly fairly limited) Champions League career, he has averaged 1.28 goal involvements per 90 minutes played.

In 2024-25, he equalled Ronaldo’s record for the most goal involvements in a Champions League season, with 21, and eight of them came after the conclusion of the league phase. He could prove crucial to Barcelona’s chances this time around.

Teammate Robert Lewandowski is playing an increasingly peripheral role for Barça, but he does bring a wealth of experience in the latter stages of the competition to his team. He ranks seventh for goal involvements per 90 in the knockout stages of Champions League games, and this is his 15th season in the competition. He is third overall for goal involvements in the knockouts, behind Ronaldo and Messi.

However, even with all of these very decisive players in tow, there is no guarantee of success. Arsenal don’t have anyone who appears in any of the lists largely because they haven’t had a great deal of joy in this competition in the last few years, but they rightly remain the favourites to win it according to the Opta supercomputer.

It will be interesting to see if their key players can step up when it matters. If not, the Champions League’s proven clutch players may well decide where the trophy goes this season.

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These floor generals sustained their success for well over a decade, leaving their mark on the record books.

Here are the NBA career assist leaders.

* – Active player statistics through March 17, 2026

1. John Stockton – 15,806

Stockton averaged over 10 assists per game 10 times in his illustrious 19-year career.

His immense career total is the reason many fans view the NBA career assist record as one of the hardest records to break in sports.

2. Chris Paul – 12,552

On all of Paul’s seven teams, he was an instrumental leader, propelling them to victories with his passing, defense and timely shooting. He averaged double figures in assists per game in seven of his 21 NBA seasons, averaging 9.2 overall for his career.

3. Jason Kidd – 12,091

Known for his exceptional court vision, Kidd blended creativity and precision to become one of the game’s best passers throughout his 19-year career. Like many on this list, he is also known for his leadership and his ability to make his teammates better.

4. LeBron James – 11,909*

Regarded by some as the greatest of all time, it’s truly incredible that the NBA’s all-time leading scorer is also fourth in assists. As James has evolved throughout his career, he developed into one of the best passers in the game, showing his ability as a floor general in his second stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers and his time with the Los Angeles Lakers.

5. Russell Westbrook – 10,343*

Known for triple-doubles throughout his career, Westbrook has accumulated his assists total in a different way than most guards on this list, frequently using his explosive athleticism to beat his man and force defensive rotations before finding an open teammate.

6. Steve Nash – 10,335

Nash’s ability to thrive in fast-paced offenses and his mastery of the pick-and-roll led him to dominate defenses for his entire 18-year career. A two-time MVP, Nash’s vision and style of play helped transform the game, leading more guards to emulate his style of play.

7. Mark Jackson – 10,334

A true point guard, Jackson averaged over eight assists per game in nine seasons. Like many others on this list, Jackson made significant contributions to winning and made his teammates better, yet he never won an NBA title.

8. Magic Johnson – 10,141

Johnson, who averaged over 10 assists per game in nine of his 13 NBA seasons, amassed his assist total in 906 games – fewer than any other player on this leaderboard. He complemented his passing with efficient scoring and a strong presence on the glass, hauling in at least 5.7 rebounds per game in each season, making him one of the best all-around players of all time.

9. Oscar Robertson – 9,887

Robertson was one of the most complete players in basketball history, becoming the first player to average a triple-double for an entire season. His impact on all aspects of the game transformed the way the point guard position was played, leading to many others who played with similar styles, such as Russell Westbrook.

10. Isiah Thomas – 9,061

An All-Star in 12 of his 13 NBA seasons, Thomas was the heart and soul of the “Bad Boys” Detroit Pistons who won back-to-back NBA titles. In a game’s biggest moments, the ball was in Zeke’s hands, leading to many clutch victories throughout his career.

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The Most Valuable Player, originating in 1930, is by far the oldest award. And little by little, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America has added more accolades into the mix, from Manager of the Year to Gold Gloves.

While it’s not uncommon for stars to win a league accolade once in their career, it’s rare for one to nab these awards more than once. Among active players, Shohei Ohtani has four MLB MVP Awards, while Aaron Judge and Mike Trout have won three each.

In the 2022 season, Major League Baseball saw a pair of repeat winners. Ace Justin Verlander won his third Cy Young Award, and New York Mets skipper Buck Showalter won his fourth Manager of the Year Award.

Baseball today has elite talents, so expect more players to continue winning a handful of awards over the course of their careers.

Listed below is the crème de la crème, those individuals who have taken home the most major awards in MLB history.

Most MVP Awards: 7 – Barry Bonds (1990, ’92-93, 2001-04)

Bonds has by far the most MVP Awards in MLB history, surpassing the next 10 MVP winners who are tied with three each. While he was still with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bonds won his first National League MVP Award in 1990, batting .301 with 33 home runs, 93 walks, and a career-high 52 steals. In ’92, the home run hitter won again, joining the 30-30 club for the second time with 34 round-trippers and 39 stolen bases.

In 1993 – the year he joined the San Francisco Giants – Bonds won his third NL MVP Award, going yard 46 times and ending the season with a .336 batting average. He had a monster MVP year almost a decade later in ’01. That year, he slashed .328/ .515/ .863, with 177 walks, 137 RBIs, and an MLB-record 73 home runs. Bonds won the title the next three consecutive years, topping out at .370 in ’02 and setting a majors record with 232 walks in ‘04.

Shohei Ohtani (2021, ’23-’25) could challenge Bonds as he sits second all time with four MVP awards and is the only player to win multiple times in each league (two with the Los Angeles Angels, then two with the Los Angeles Dodgers).

Most Cy Young Awards: 7 – Roger Clemens (1986-87, ’91, ’97-98, 2001, ’04)

Perhaps even more impressive than winning seven Cy Young Awards is winning them across four teams in both leagues. Clemens dominated three decades of baseball, taking home the title while playing for the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Yankees and Houston Astros.

The Rocket won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in ’86 and ’87 with the Red Sox, leading the league in wins and ERA, and simultaneously winning AL MVP that first year. In 1991, he won again after finishing first in the majors with 241 strikeouts.

In his two seasons with the Blue Jays (1997-98), Clemens won consecutive Cy Young Awards and back-to-back pitching Triple Crowns, leading the league in ERA, wins and strikeouts. After half of a decade with the Yankees, where he nabbed his sixth Cy Young, Clemens set the MLB record in ’04 with the Astros. There was nearly a 20-year gap between his first and last Cy Young wins, the last of which while playing on a National League team.

Most Manager of the Year Awards: 4 – Three Managers Tied

1. Bobby Cox (1985, ’91, 2004, ’05)

In ’85, Cox won his first Manager of the Year Award in the American League with the Blue Jays. They were one game short of a spot in the World Series after ending the season with a 99-62 record. Six years later, in his second year as manager of the Atlanta Braves, the team won the NL pennant, and he nabbed his second Manager of the Year Award. In 2004, Cox won the accolade once again, in addition to celebrating his 2,000th career win as a skipper.  He continued to hold his place at the helm of the team in 2005, winning his last Manager of the Year Award after the Braves secured their 14th consecutive division title. The streak provided more titles than the franchise had won combined in Boston, Milwaukee and Atlanta before then.  

2. Tony La Russa (1983, ’88, ’92, 2002)

La Russa secured his first Manager of the Year Award in 1983 with the Chicago White Sox, who drastically improved to a nearly 100-win season. As manager of the Oakland Athletics in ’88, he led the team to 104 wins. And prior to the previous season, they had not held a winning record in seven years. After the A’s placed first in the AL West In ’92, La Russa won his third award. His fourth Manager of the Year Award came in 2002 during his tenure as skipper of the St. Louis Cardinals, who swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLDS.

3. Buck Showalter (1994, 2004, ’14, ’22)

After the ’94 season, Showalter won the Manager of the Year Award with the Yankees (who held the best record as the season was shortened due to the strike). As skipper of the Texas Rangers, he won the accolade in 2004 following the team’s first finish above .500 in four years. He took home his third Manager of the Year Award in 2014, bringing a once-terrible Baltimore Orioles team to their second playoff appearance since ’98. Showalter’s most recent award came in 2022 in his first year at the helm of the New York Mets. He led the team to 101 wins and their first postseason since 2016.

Most Gold Glove Awards: 18 – Greg Maddux (Pitcher)

Maddux is one of the best ever to take the mound – not only in terms of pitching but fielding too. Over the course of his 23-year career, the Hall of Famer won 18 Gold Gloves – more than any other position player in MLB history. He took home his first Gold Glove Award in 1990 and continued to do so for 12 more years. After a brief hiatus in 2003, he won his last five from ’04 to ’08.  

Most World Series MVP Awards: 2 – Four Players Tied

1. Sandy Koufax (1963, ’65)

Koufax became the first player to win World Series MVP twice, first taking it home in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ sweep of the Yankees in ’63. The Hall of Famer pitched complete games in Games 1 and 4 of the World Series. In the two games, he combined for 23 strikeouts and three earned runs. And as the cherry on top, he held Mickey Mantle to just one hit in seven at-bats, striking him out three times.

In the 1965 World Series, Koufax faced slightly tougher competition. Outdueled by Minnesota Twins ace Jim Kaat, he took the loss in Game 2 after allowing one earned run over six innings. He came back in Game 5, pitching a shutout with 10 Ks and just one walk. And he got his revenge on Kaat in Game 7, twirling yet another 10-strikeout shutout to earn his second title in three years.

2. Bob Gibson (1964, ‘67)

Both the ’64 and ’67 World Series went to seven games. In both decisive games, Gibson secured the title for the Cardinals. In 1964, the Hall of Famer was responsible for the loss against the Yankees in Game 2, giving up four earned runs in eight innings. But like Koufax, he recovered rather impressively. Gibson pitched 10 innings in Game 5, striking out a whopping 13 and allowing no earned runs (but two runs scored). In Game 7, he gave up five runs but still went on to pitch a complete Game 7 and help bring the Cards a championship.

Just three years later, he pitched nine innings of one-run ball and struck out 10 in Game 1 against the Red Sox. He returned for Game 5 and helped the Cards secure another win in a shutout. And with just two days of rest, he tossed another full nine-innings in Game 7, striking out 10 and winning his second ring.

3. Reggie Jackson (1973, ’77)

Unlike Koufax and Gibson, Jackson took home a pair of World Series MVPs as a member of two different teams. In the closely fought 1973 World Series, the All-Star outfielder knocked out a clutch two-run shot in the bottom of the third in Game 7. The A’s were able to hold onto their 5-2 lead, defeating the Mets and winning a back-to-back title.

Jackson played for the Yankees in ’77, earning his nickname “Mr. October” in the Fall Classic. In Game 6, he tied the MLB record for most home runs in a single game. He hit a two-run shot in the fourth inning and followed up with a two-out round tripper in the fifth. Jackson knocked his third homer out in the eighth and won his fourth World Series ring just an inning later.

4. Corey Seager (2020, ’23)

The star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers dominated throughout the shortened 2020 MLB season, but no player performed better in key moments than Corey Seager. He helped the Dodgers overcome a 3-1 deficit with five home home runs in the NLCS against the Braves. In the World Series, Seager continued his success at the plate against the Tampa Bay Rays, finishing the series with a .556 on-base percentage.

Seager became the second player to win World Series MVP with different teams, leading the Texas Rangers to the title in 2023. He complemented his offensive success with superb defensive play at shortstop, including a critical diving double play in the eighth inning of Game 3. The Rangers never looked back after this momentum-shifting moment, winning Games 3 and 4 before closing out the series against the Arizona Diamondbacks in five games.

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Arsenal can continue dreaming of a historic quadruple after they swept aside Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday to reach the Champions League quarter-finals with a 3-1 aggregate success.

A late Kai Havertz penalty rescued a draw in last week’s first leg, though there rarely looked to be any danger of requiring such a dramatic intervention in north London this time around.

Arsenal gave Bayer Leverkusen’s goalkeeper plenty to do in the first half and were good value for their lead, as earned by Eberechi Eze’s gorgeous long-range strike.

Declan Rice then put the tie beyond Leverkusen with just over an hour gone, as the Gunners reached the last eight of the Champions League for the third season in a row.

As such, Arsenal remain in the hunt for four trophies, with Premier League glory within touching distance, the EFL Cup final to come at the weekend and an FA Cup quarter-final to look forward to.

Fuelled by expectation, Arsenal were comfortably the more threatening of the two sides in the first half as they managed 12 attempts and got seven on target.

Their seven shots on target was Arsenal’s joint-most in the first half of a Champions League game on record (since 2003-04), as they kept Leverkusen goalkeeper Janis Blaswich busy.

For the most part, Blaswich coped with what Arsenal threw at him – and then Eze stepped up in the 36th minute.

The ball sat up kindly for Eze on the bounce as he let it run past him, and after turning with it to face the goal, he lashed a stunning 25-yard strike into the top-left corner.

In finding the net, Eze became just the second English player to score for Arsenal in the Premier League, League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League in the same season, after Theo Walcott in 2012-13.

Arsenal fans likely wanted more, though but on the pitch Leverkusen were granted a little more control after the break, having 67.4% of the ball between half-time and the hour.

The Gunners looked bright on the counter, however.

Viktor Gyökeres was presented with two decent opportunities, and a vital Jarell Quansah intervention denied Leandro Trossard a tap-in.

But Rice effectively put the tie to bed in the 63rd minute, pouncing on a clearance and charging forwards before picking out the bottom-right corner from just outside the box.

Christian Kofane did draw a brilliant late save from David Raya, but otherwise Arsenal went on to seal a largely routine win, something not to be taken for granted at this stage of the Champions League.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen stats from their Champions League meeting at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well. 

Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen Post-Match Facts

• Arsenal had 12 shots on target against Bayer Leverkusen tonight, their joint-most on record (since 2003-04) in a UEFA Champions League knockout stage match (also 12 vs Porto in March 2010).
• Arsenal have eliminated German opposition from the knockout stages of a European competition for just the second time (ninth tie), after the 1999-00 UEFA Cup against SV Werder Bremen.
• Arsenal have reached the UEFA Champions League quarter-final in three consecutive seasons for the second time, previously doing so between 2007-08 and 2009-10.
• Arsenal have won 37 of their 49 games in all competitions this season (D9 L3). Only in 2001-02 (39) and 1970-71 (41) have they ever won more in a single campaign (also 37 in 2003-04).

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Four-Goal Turnarounds (Once):

Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain: 2016-17 (Round of 16) 
First Leg: PSG 4-0 Barcelona 
Second Leg: Barcelona 6-1 PSG

Three-Goal Turnarounds (Four Times):

Sporting CP vs Bodø/Glimt: 2025-26 (Last 16)
First Leg: Bodø/Glimt 3-0 Sporting CP
Second Leg: Sporting CP 5-0 Bodø/Glimt (AET)

Liverpool vs Barcelona: 2018-19 (Semi-Finals) 
First Leg: Barcelona 3-0 Liverpool 
Second Leg: Liverpool 4-0 Barcelona

Roma vs Barcelona: 2017-18 (Quarter-Finals) 
First Leg: Barcelona 4-1 Roma 
Second Leg: Roma 3-0 Barcelona

Deportivo La Coruña vs Milan: 2003-04 (Quarter-Finals) 
First Leg: Milan 4-1 Deportivo La Coruña 
Second Leg: Deportivo La Coruña 4-0 Milan 

Two-Goal Turnarounds (12 Times):

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund: 2025-26 (Knockout Play-Off Round) 
First Leg: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Atalanta
Second Leg: Atalanta 4-1 Borussia Dortmund

Juventus vs Atlético Madrid: 2018-19 (Last 16) 
First Leg: Atlético Madrid 2-0 Juventus
Second Leg: Juventus 3-0 Atlético Madrid

Manchester United vs Paris Saint-Germain: 2018-19 (Last 16) 
First Leg: Man Utd 0-2 PSG
Second Leg: PSG 1-3 Man Utd

Monaco vs Manchester City: 2016-17 (Last 16) 
First Leg: Man City 5-3 Monaco
Second Leg: Monaco 3-1 Man City

Real Madrid vs Wolfsburg: 2015-16 (Quarter-Finals) 
First Leg: Wolfsburg 2-0 Real Madrid
Second Leg: Real Madrid 3-0 Wolfsburg

Bayern Munich vs Porto: 2014-15 (Quarter-Finals) 
First Leg: Porto 3-1 Bayern Munich
Second Leg: Bayern Munich 6-1 Porto

Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain: 2013-14 (Quarter-Finals) 
First Leg: PSG 3-1 Chelsea
Second Leg: Chelsea 2-0 PSG

Manchester United vs Olympiakos: 2013-14 (Last 16) 
First Leg: Olympiakos 2-0 Man Utd
Second Leg: Man Utd 3-0 Olympiakos

Barcelona vs Milan: 2012-13 (Last 16) 
First Leg: Milan 2-0 Barcelona
Second Leg: Barcelona 4-0 Milan

Chelsea vs Napoli: 2011-12 (Last 16) 
First Leg: Napoli 3-1 Chelsea
Second Leg: Chelsea 4-1 Napoli (aet)

Monaco vs Real Madrid: 2003-04 (Quarter-Finals) 
First Leg: Real Madrid 4-2 Monaco
Second Leg: Monaco 3-1 Real Madrid

Barcelona vs Chelsea: 1999-00 (Quarter-Finals) 
First Leg: Chelsea 3-1 Barcelona
Second Leg: Barcelona 5-1 Chelsea (aet)

Four-Goal Turnarounds

Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain: 2016-17 (Round of 16) 
First Leg: PSG 4-0 Barcelona 
Second Leg: Barcelona 6-1 PSG

It has only happened once in the history of the UEFA Champions League, but the classic ‘Remontada’ saw Barcelona overturn a four-goal deficit in their round-of-16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain in 2017. 

The first leg couldn’t have gone much better for the Parisians. Having lost their previous two knockout encounters with Barcelona in 2012-13 and 2014-15, they struck first through Ángel Di María’s free-kick, before Julian Draxler doubled their lead before half-time. Di María added another brilliant effort after the break and Edinson Cavani capped off a famous 4-0 win.

Barcelona managed just one shot on target across the 90 minutes, though they actually still won on expected goals.

At Camp Nou, however, something magical stirred. Luis Suárez opened the scoring early on, heading home despite Thomas Meunier’s best efforts on the line. A freak own-goal from Layvin Kurzawa while attempting to clear Andrés Iniesta’s audacious backheel then made it 2-0 before half-time.

Just three minutes after the restart, Barcelona were awarded a penalty when Meunier tripped Neymar. Lionel Messi duly converted it, but PSG hit back through Cavani, seemingly ending the contest. With the away goals rule in effect, Barcelona needed to score three more to advance.

Then came Neymar’s blitz: a stunning free-kick made it 4-1, a calmly taken penalty brought it to 5-1, and an inch-perfect cross in the dying seconds of stoppage time found Sergi Roberto, who arrived at the back post to score Barcelona’s sixth and send Camp Nou into delirium.

Barcelona’s run ended in the next round at the hands of Juventus, however. On that occasion, there was no miracle as a 3-0 first-leg loss in Turin was followed by a goalless draw at home. But the Remontada lives on as the most extraordinary comeback in Champions League history.

Three-Goal Turnarounds

Sporting CP vs Bodø/Glimt: 2025-26 (Last 16)
First Leg: Bodø/Glimt 3-0 Sporting CP
Second Leg: Sporting CP 5-0 Bodø/Glimt (AET)

Bodø/Glimt were beginning to look like they could beat anyone, defy all odds.

Shock wins over Manchester City and Atlético Madrid in their last two league-phase games saw them sneak into the play-off round, where Inter awaited. They then beat the 2024-25 UCL runners-up home and away to reach the last 16.

Bodø/Glimt looked destined to become just the second Norwegian team to reach the Champions League quarter-finals when they beat Sporting 3-0 at home in the first leg of their last-16 tie.

However, Sporting were reading from a different script; the Bodø/Glimt fairytale of little interest to them.

At the José Alvalade, they wiped out their visitors’ aggregate lead in regulation time thanks to Gonçalo Inácio, Pote and Luis Suárez, forcing an extra 30 minutes. Maxi Araújo completed the turnaround quickly after the restart, before Rafael Nel wrapped up a memorable night at the end.

The victory ensured Sporting progressed to the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time.

Liverpool vs Barcelona: 2018-19 (Semi-Finals) 
First Leg: Barcelona 3-0 Liverpool 
Second Leg: Liverpool 4-0 Barcelona 

Barcelona were chasing a treble. In the first leg at Camp Nou, Suárez netted their 500th Champions League goal and Messi added two more – the second a stunning free-kick that marked his 600th strike for the club, exactly 14 years after his first against Albacete in May 2005. 

Liverpool had chances to score an away goal but couldn’t convert, losing their sixth consecutive away leg in a European semi-final. Still, the scene was set for another magical Anfield night.

Divock Origi began the comeback inside seven minutes, becoming the 50th different player to score for Liverpool in the competition (excluding own goals). But the tie really turned on its head in the space of 122 seconds after half-time with a double courtesy of Georginio Wijnaldum, who was only on the pitch due to an injury to Andy Robertson. 

Messi tried to stem the Liverpool tide, either attempting (five) or creating (three) all eight of Barcelona’s shots in the match. But even the Argentinian maestro could do nothing when Trent Alexander-Arnold caught the Catalan defence napping at a corner, allowing Origi to stroke home and trigger pandemonium in the Kop. 

Having suffered heartache in the Champions League final the year before, this time Liverpool weren’t to be denied a sixth European Cup/Champions League triumph in just their ninth final, defeating Tottenham Hotspur 2-0.

Roma vs Barcelona: 2017-18 (Quarter-Finals) 
First Leg: Barcelona 4-1 Roma 
Second Leg: Roma 3-0 Barcelona 

Having missed out on the semi-finals the year before, Barcelona were hoping to go one better in the 2017-18 season – especially with Ernesto Valverde’s side nine points clear at the top of La Liga ahead of the first leg against Roma. They had their eyes on a potential treble as a place in the Copa del Rey final had already been confirmed. 

They swept Roma aside in the first leg in Camp Nou, helped by two own goals and a surprisingly rare Suárez Champions League strike (his first in 31 attempts that season). Edin Džeko’s late away goal, though, gave Roma a glimmer of hope.

And six minutes into the second leg at Stadio Olimpico, the Bosnian gave them reason to believe.

Patrik Schick then went close before Gerard Piqué fouled Džeko in the box. Daniele De Rossi, making his 600th Roma appearance, stepped up and converted. With the away goals rule in play, one more would send Roma through.

The Giallorossi continued to press for the goal that would see them advance, and with eight minutes remaining, it came courtesy of Kostas Manolas, producing one of the most iconic lines of English football commentary from the modern era by Peter Drury: 

“Roma have risen from their ruins! Manolas, the Greek God in Rome! The unthinkable unfolds before our eyes. This was not meant to happen. This could not happen. This IS happening. It’s a Greek from Mount Olympus who has come to the seven hills of Rome and pulled off a miracle.“

It ended a 34-year wait for Roma to reach the semi-finals of the European Cup/Champions League – but their dream crumbled at the penultimate hurdle, losing to eventual runners-up Liverpool.

Deportivo La Coruña vs Milan: 2003-04 (Quarter-Finals) 
First Leg: Milan 4-1 Deportivo La Coruña 
Second Leg: Deportivo La Coruña 4-0 Milan 

The defending champions, stacked with the talents of Kaká, Andrea Pirlo, Andriy Shevchenko, Paolo Maldini and more, were expected to cruise past Deportivo. And in San Siro, they looked unstoppable.

Walter Pandiani had briefly silenced the home crowd early on, but two goals from Kaká, and one each from Shevchenko and Pirlo flipped the tie, and Milan were 4-1 up heading to Spain.

But Deportivo were not done. Pandiani struck first again – this time after just five minutes in the second leg. Juan Carlos Valerón and Albert Luque added two more to tie the aggregate score before half-time, capitalising on uncharacteristic mistakes from Maldini and Alessandro Nesta.

With the away goals rule in their favour, Deportivo could have sat back, but they pressed on. Their fourth came from Fran after Gennaro Gattuso’s misplaced clearance.

Deportivo completed a stunning 5-4 aggregate win, securing their spot in a surprising semi-final line-up that included Chelsea, Monaco and FC Porto, where a certain ‘Special One’ was announcing himself on the continental stage. 

Honourable Mention: The Miracle of Istanbul

While reminiscing about some of the greatest nights in Champions League history, it would be remiss of us to ignore Istanbul. It wasn’t a two-legged tie, hence its exclusion from the list above, but discussions of the greatest Champions League comebacks would be incomplete without the 2005 final.

Paolo Maldini gave Milan the lead with less than a minute on the clock, before a Hernán Crespo double saw them lead 3-0 going into half-time. 

Liverpool fought back over the course of seven second-half minutes, however, with Steven Gerrard, Vladimir Smicer and Xabi Alonso all scoring – the Spaniard’s coming on the rebound after missing a penalty, in hindsight a sign that fortune was on their side.

The sides couldn’t be separated in 90 minutes, and the Reds then had to be grateful for Jerzy Dudek keeping out Shevchenko’s close-range effort with three minutes left in extra-time. 

And the Polish goalkeeper proved his worth in the subsequent penalty shootout, making a hat-trick of saves from Serginho, Pirlo and, decisively, Shevchenko as Liverpool claimed the unlikeliest of wins. 

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Sporting CP pulled off one the greatest second-leg comebacks in UEFA Champions League history as they trhashed Bodø/Glimt 5-0 after extra-time in Lisbon on Tuesday to seal progress to the quarter-finals.

Bodø/Glimt were 3-0 winners at home in the first leg, seemingly putting one foot in the last eight, where only one Norwegian team had ever been before.

But Sporting dominated throughout on Tuesday at a raucous José Alvalade, opening the scoring on the night just past the half-hour mark before powering to a 3-0 lead by the end of the regulation 90 minutes, forcing extra-time.

They completed the comeback quickly after the game resumed for the extra 30 minutes and then wrapped things up in the final moments, the turnaround ensuring they became just the fifth team in Champions League history to overturn a first-leg deficit of three or more goals.

As a result, they will play in the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the first time.

It took Sporting a little longer than they’d have liked to pull one back, but they were fully deserving to take the lead on the night when Gonçalo Inácio nodded in Francisco Trincão’s corner delivery in the 34th minute.

They had one scare late in the first half, though, as Odin Bjørtuft’s header looped up off the crossbar and then struck it again on its way down.

But Sporting survived, reaching the break having recorded 15 shots, the joint-most first-half attempts in the UCL by a team from outside the top five leagues.

Their dominance continued into the second half and, after peppering the Bodø/Glimt goal some more, they doubled their lead just past the hour.

Geny Catamo picked out the run of Luis Suárez in behind and he laid the ball across goal for Pote to apply the simplest of finishes.

Suárez then levelled the tie on aggregate from the spot, blasting home after Fredrik Bjørkan was deemed to have handled Iván Fresneda’s cross.

Sporting sought the decisive fourth that would have prevented extra-time, and although they ultimately chalked up 33 attempts – the second most on record for a Portuguese side in the Champions League (excluding extra-time) – an additional 30 minutes beckoned.

It took them less than two minutes to get their fourth goal and sneak in front on aggregate after the start of extra-time.

Trincão nudged the ball into Maxi Araújo’s path in the box and the Uruguayan’s left-footed strike beat Nikita Haikin at his near post, sparking bedlam in the Sporting dugout and stands.

Bodø/Glimt failed to mount much of a response and Sporting put the icing on the cake with a fifth goal at the end, Rafael Nel empathically finding the roof of the net from the close range on his Champions League debut.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Sporting CP vs Bodø/Glimt stats from their Champions League meeting at Estádio José Alvalade on Tuesday.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well. 

Sporting CP vs Bodø/Glimt Post-Match Facts

• Sporting CP became only the fifth team in UEFA Champions League history to overturn a 3+ goal deficit from the first leg to progress to the next round, after Deportivo de La Coruña in 2003-04, Barcelona in 2016-17, Roma in 2017-18 and Liverpool in 2018-19.
• Sporting CP have progressed to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the first time, while they are the first Portuguese team overall to progress this far in the competition since Benfica in 2022-23.
• Bodø/Glimt conceded more goals tonight (5) than they conceded across their previous five UEFA Champions League matches combined (4), whilst this was also their joint-heaviest defeat in major European competition.
• Sporting CP attempted 38 shots tonight against Bodø/Glimt, the joint-most on record for a Portuguese club in the UEFA Champions League (since 2003-04) along with Sporting Braga v CFR Cluj in September 2012.
• With 91:23 on the clock, Maxi Araújo’s goal tonight was the earliest ever scored in extra time in a UEFA Champions League match.

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The post Sporting CP 5-0 Bodø/Glimt Stats: Portuguese Champions Produce One of the All-Time-Great UCL Comebacks (AET) appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Surely, someone is going to party at the NCAA Division I women’s basketball Final Four like it’s … 2025?

The first weekend of April in Phoenix could wind up looking familiar to last year’s Final Four, which consisted of all four of this year’s No. 1 seeds.

UCLA, Texas and South Carolina also were 1-seeds a year ago, and UConn was a 2-seed while it captured its record 12th national title.

March Madness is synonymous with surprises, of course, but those four teams have played much of this season as if the 68-team bracket should just skip to the Final Four – to let them battle it out.

In TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), our net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent, UConn has been No. 1 the entire season. UCLA is right behind at No. 2 and hasn’t been below 4. Then it’s No. 3 Texas and No. 4 South Carolina, and each has only briefly fallen to 5, with LSU making a few appearances in the top four.

Not surprisingly, the four No. 1 seeds top the championship probabilities following our thousands of March Madness simulations run through the Opta supercomputer.

Four of the previous 43 NCAA tournaments ended with all four No. 1 seeds at the Final Four: 1989, 2012, 2015 and 2018. This year, UCLA and Texas gain an advantage of not having to leave their states through the Elite Eight. 

Fort Worth 1 Regional

UConn (34-0) is seeking to become the first repeat champion since the dynasty program’s 2013-16 squads won four titles in a row. Dating to last season, the Huskies have won 50 straight games for the fifth-longest streak in D-I history (the top three runs also are under coach Geno Auriemma).

On a team that leads the nation in field goal percentage both offensively and defensively, power forward Sarah Strong is No. 1 overall in DRIP, and ranks third with shooting guard Azzi Fudd fourth in WAR. Only Tennessee and Villanova have held a second-half lead against UConn, and only Michigan (72-69) has finished within single digits of the Big East champ while it’s posted a national-high average scoring margin of plus-38.4.

Interestingly, UConn’s regional includes D-I’s top four in individual scoring average: Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blakes (27.0), Iowa State’s Audi Crooks (25.5), Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo (25.2) and Western Illinois’ Mia Nicastro (24.2). Also, Murray State’s Sharnecce Currie-Jelks is No. 1 in double-doubles (26).

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. UConn: 93.8% Sweet 16, 74.6% Final Four
• 2. Vanderbilt: 69.1%, 7.1%
• 3. Ohio State: 64.9%, 7.9%
• 4. North Carolina: 41.8%, 2.1%
• 5. Maryland: 55.1%, 4.5%
• 6. Notre Dame: 31.5%, 2.1%
• 7. Illinois: 21.6%, 0.8%
• 8. Iowa State: 4.3%, 0.6%
• 9. Syracuse: 1.73%, <0.1%
• 10. Colorado: 9.1%, <0.1%
• 11. Fairfield: 3.5%, 0.1%
• 12. Murray State: 2.0%, <0.1%
• 13. Western Illinois: 1.1%, <0.1%
• 14. Howard: 1.7%, <0.1%
• 15. High Point: 2.3%, <0.1%
• 16. UTSA: 0.1%, <0.1%

Sacramento 2 Regional

Nobody had carved Thanksgiving turkey yet when UCLA (31-1) suffered its only loss to Texas, and the Big Ten champ has gone on to collect 19 Quad-1 wins, the most nationally and more than double UConn’s nine. The Bruins, though, haven’t won a national title since 1978 in an AIAW Tournament that was a precursor to the women’s NCAA Tournament.

Coach Cori Close’s squad is built around 6-foot-7 senior center Lauren Betts, who helps define the team dynamic.  Ranked No. 1 in offensive TRACR, UCLA has gained 89.6% of its points from seniors, and the nine players who have averaged at least 10 minutes per game stand over 6-2 on average.

LSU (27-5) is a potential party crasher to the Final Four, leading D-I with 94.5 points per game and boasting extensive NCAA Tournament experience with guards Flau-jae Johnson, Mikaylah Johnson and MiLaysia Fulwiley, a transfer from South Carolina. The Tigers have wins over Texas and Duke, the region’s No. 3 seed but eighth in TRACR.

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. UCLA: 89.3% Sweet 16, 46.5% Final Four
• 2. LSU: 89.0%, 41.5%
• 3. Duke: 62.5%, 5.9%
• 4. Minnesota: 60.3%, 2.9%
• 5. Ole Miss: 33.9%, 1.3%
• 6. Baylor: 18.8%, 0.4%
• 7. Texas Tech: 6.1%, 0.3%
• 8. Oklahoma State: 8.4%, 0.6%
• 9. Princeton: 1.9%, <0.1%
• 10. Villanova: 4.8%, 0.2%
• *11. Nebraska: 15.3%, 0.5%
• *11. Richmond: 2.2%, <0.1%
• 12. Gonzaga: 4.2%, <0.1%
• 13. Green Bay: 1.5%, <0.1%
• 14. Charleston: 1.2%, <0.1%
• 15. Jacksonville: 0.2%, <0.1%
• 16. Cal Baptist: 0.4%, <0.1%

*-Will meet in First Four

Fort Worth 3 Regional

Texas (31-3), seeking its first national title in 40 years, boasts a No. 2 ranking in defensive TRACR – that end of the floor is a staple for Vic Schaefer-coached teams – while junior forward Madison Booker is No. 2 in WAR behind only Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo. The Longhorns also are quite battle-tested coming out of the Southeastern Conference, with its 14 overall Quad-1 wins including two over South Carolina.

However, the NCAA Tournament’s three other No. 1 seeds are top eight of D-I field goal percentage, while the Longhorns are just 63rd. Plus, the Longhorns’ 4.3 made 3s per game rank a mere 323rd, which could factor in heavily to a regional that has the most top-15 teams in TRACR (also Michigan, Louisville, West Virginia and Kentucky).

Tennessee (16-13) gained an at-large bid despite having seven straight losses. It’s the only program to make an appearance in every NCAA tourney (44).

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. Texas: 88.6% Sweet 16, 55.8% Final Four
• 2. Michigan: 72.7%, 21.1% 
• 3. Louisville: 71.3%, 11.4%
• 4. West Virginia: 53.2%, 4.8%
• 5. Kentucky: 38.1%, 3.8%
• 6. Alabama: 22.9%, 1.2%
• 7. NC State: 12.9%, 1.2%
• 8. Oregon: 7.6%, 1.2%
• 9. Virginia Tech: 3.6%, 0.2%
• 10. Tennessee: 14.0%, 1.8%
• 11. Rhode Island: 4.3%, 0.1%
• 12. James Madison: 6.6%, 1.1%
• 13. Miami (OH): 2.1%, <0.1%
• 14. Vermont: 1.5%, <0.1%
• 15. Holy Cross: 0.3%, <0.1%
• *16. Missouri State: 0.1%, <0.1%
• *16. Stephen F. Austin: <0.1%, <0.1%

*-Will meet in First Four

Sacramento 4 Regional

South Carolina (31-3), last year’s national runner-up and a three-time champion under coach Dawn Staley since 2017, is a No. 1 seed for the sixth consecutive year. Unlike the top-heavy nature of Texas’ regional, the Gamecocks may have the easiest path to the Final Four. They’re No. 4 in TRACR, and the next-highest rankings are TCU (10) and Iowa (14).

South Carolina is tied for the national high with five starters scoring in double figures (minimum 15 games), led by All-America forward Joyce Edwards (19.6)

Oklahoma, also from the SEC, is another of the teams with five players averaging in double figures, led by guard Aaliyah Chavez (18.4), with the Sooners one of only six Division I teams to have the same starting lineup all season (FDU and Oklahoma State also among NCAA Tournament qualifiers). Additionally, TCU has guard Olivia Miles and her five triple-doubles (only one other D-I player has two), while Iowa seeks to improve on its second-round exit last March in this year’s second season after Caitlin Clark.

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. South Carolina: 89.6% Sweet 16, 55.8% Final Four
• 2. Iowa: 66.2%, 11.6%
• 3. TCU: 64.0%, 10.1%
• 4. Oklahoma: 59.7%, 12.2%
• 5. Michigan State: 37.9%, 4.7%
• 6. Washington: 26.9%, 2.2%
• 7. Georgia: 20.7%, 1.5%
• 8. Clemson: 2.1%, 0.1%
• 9. USC: 8.3%, 0.7%
• *10. Virginia: 8.7%, 0.6%
• *10. Arizona State: 3.3%, <0.1%
• 11. South Dakota State: 8.2%, 0.4%
• 12. Colorado State: 1.8%, <0.1%
• 13. Idaho: 0.7%, <0.1%
• 14. UC San Diego: 0.9%, <0.1%
• 15. FDU: 1.1%, <0.1%
• **16. Southern: <0.1%, <0.1%
• **16. Samford: <0.1%, <0.1%

* and **-Will meet in First Four

Data modeling by Matt Scott. For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post Women’s NCAA Tournament Predictions: UConn, No. 1 Seeds Aim to Prevent the (March) Madness appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Spring practice across college campuses can come without fanfare, but it can be an important time for the upcoming season.

The pursuit of a championship starts in the offseason, even before spring practice, and one wrong decision at quarterback – usually considered the most important position in the sport – can end those dreams before they truly begin.

Across FCS football this offseason, multiple top contenders are tasked with replacing a key starter at quarterback, making the competition at the position some of the bigger storylines of spring practices.

Below are six FCS QB battles to keep an eye on before the 2026 college football season.

Illinois State Redbirds

QBs to Watch: Gage Roy (6-2, 200, Sr.), Beckham Pellant (6-0, 195, R-So.)

The Skinny: After a playoff run (including a record four road wins) to the FCS national championship game, Illinois State must find a way to replace starter Tommy Rittenhouse at quarterback. Despite the lack of experience, there’s plenty of potential among the Redbirds’ QBs. Roy, a USC transfer, saw limited action for the Trojans, but he was a decorated high school signal-caller in Dallas. Pellant served as Rittenhouse’s backup but has familiarity with the system and has waited for his opportunity. Both quarterbacks have taken first-team reps during spring practice, but this battle could have national ramifications as the Redbirds look to make it back to the title game in Nashville, Tennessee.

Tarleton State Texans

QBs to Watch: Braedyn Locke (6-0, 211, R-Sr.), Kaden Anderson (6-4, 230, R-Jr.), Jackson Gilkey (6-2, 215, R-Jr.)

The Skinny: It’s rare for an FCS program to add multiple Power-4 starters out of the NCAA transfer portal, but Tarleton State did just that this offseason. Locke started 12 games at Wisconsin before spending last season at Arizona. He’ll compete with Anderson, the former Wyoming QB who brings imposing size to the position. If that wasn’t enough, the Texans added Gilkey, who started five games at Weber State last season before suffering a season-ending injury and was a record-setting quarterback out of Ennis, Texas. All three QBs have a real shot to lead the high-powered Tarleton State offense in 2026.

Southeastern Louisiana Lions

QBs to Watch: Kyle Lowe (5-10, 195, R-Jr.), Cole Welliver (6-7, 225, So.), Isaac Mooring III (6-4, 205, Jr.)

The Skinny: Lowe is the favorite to win this battle after playing in 13 games last year, totaling 864 yards, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions through the air, and 452 yards and five TDs on the ground. Lions coach Frank Scelfo hasn’t been afraid to run a two-QB system, which is why Welliver could be a real factor. The towering transfer from New Mexico has an extremely high ceiling and was a Texas high school standout for former NFL star Jason Witten. Mooring is a dark horse here, transferring from the Division II level. Over two seasons at UT Permian Basin, he had 2,059 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, three interceptions and three rushing TDs.

Harvard Crimson

QBs to Watch: Dante Torres (6-3, 205, Jr.), Ty Fein (6-1, 205, So.), Sam Kaiser (6-5, 210, So.)

The Skinny: Here’s another quarterback battle with little proven college experience, but keep an eye on Torres, the projected favorite. He’s a former New York Gatorade Player of the Year who possesses the skills to be extremely successful in Harvard’s offense. He completed 4-of-5 passes for 68 yards and one TD versus Holy Cross last season. Kaiser and Fein are two younger players who are expected to push Torres and will get a real shot at the starting job.

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

QBs to Watch: Richie Munoz (5-11, 215, R-Jr.), Jax Leatherwood (6-8, 253, R-Sr.), Zolten Osborne (6-1, 205, R-Jr.)

The Skinny: Munoz redshirted last season at Tennessee Tech after starting 17 games at Weber State in the 2023 and ’24 seasons. He passed for 3,622 yards and 34 TDs against only seven interceptions, adding five rushing TDs. Keep an eye on Leatherwood, who had a breakout year at SEMO in 2025 with almost 2,000 passing yards, 12 passing TDs and two interceptions. Osborne can’t be overlooked, either, after his OVC-Big South honorable mention season at Charleston Southern last year, passing for 2,216 yards and 12 touchdowns. With improved quarterback play, the Golden Eagles could be a real threat again as they change conferences to the SoCon.

Western Illinois Leathernecks

QBs to Watch: Cason Carswell (6-3, 195, So.), Kennedy McGill (6-1, 225, Jr.)

The Skinny: This is one of those QB battles that may be overlooked, but Western Illinois could be a real dark horse in the OVC-Big South in 2026. Carswell was the conference’s offensive freshman of the year last season, posting 2,054 passing yards and 16 passing TDs against only three interceptions. He was projected to be the starter again, but coach Joe Davis brought in one of the top Division II QB transfers this offseason in McGill, the Lone Star Conference’s 2025 offensive player of the year. McGill has true dual-threat ability, rushing for over 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons with 33 career rushing touchdowns at Central Washington. He also posted 4,510 passing yards and 41 passing TDs in three seasons.

Top photos via Associated Press, Randy Bergeron/SLU Athletics and Southeast Missouri Athletics. For more FCS football coverage, follow at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.

The post Six Key FCS QB Battles Before 2026 Season appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Could this year’s NCAA Division I men’s Final Four look a lot like last season’s?

The first weekend of April in Indianapolis could wind up feeling familiar to last year’s rare scenario of all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the Final Four. It happened only once before in 2008.

March Madness is often filled with chaos, buzzer beaters and Cinderella runs, of course, but the favorites entering the 2026 bracket look unusually strong. Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida arrive as the No. 1 seeds after separating themselves from the rest of the field for much of the season.

We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

TRACR represents how many points per 100 possessions a team is above or below average. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.

East Region

Duke (32-2) is the obvious favorite to advance out of the East and has the highest probability to win the tournament at 14.5%. The ACC champion’s dominance has been fueled by freshman star Cam Boozer, who leads the nation in both DRIP and WAR metrics. His scoring efficiency, rebounding and defensive presence have made him one of the most, if not the most, valuable players in the country and a major reason why coach Jon Scheyer’s team enters the tournament at No. 1 in TRACR.

We’re not saying Duke will have a walk in the park, by any means. UConn is trying to win its third national title this decade, and most likely will be Duke’s biggest obstacle. UConn is led by tournament veteran Alex Karaban, who was a part of the 2023 and ’24 title teams, even establishing himself as the program’s all-time winningest player (118).

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. Duke: 73.3% Sweet 16, 37.7% Final Four
• 2. UConn: 59.2%, 12.7%
• 3. Michigan State: 45.3%, 10.3%
• 4. Kansas: 38.5%, 6.9%
• 5. St. John’s: 50.9%, 11.0%
• 6. Louisville: 34.9%, 7.9%
• 7. UCLA: 27.0%, 4.1%
• 8. Ohio State: 16.0%, 4.4%
• 9. TCU: 10.2%, 1.8%
• 10. UCF: 12.2%, 0.7%
• 11. South Florida: 16.2%, 2.1%
• 12. UNI: 7.1%, 0.4%
• 13. California Baptist: 3.5%, 0.1%
• 14. North Dakota State: 3.7%, 0.1%
• 15. Furman: 1.7%, <0.1%
• 16. Siena: 0.6%, 0.1%

Midwest Region

Michigan, under coach Dusty May, enters the tournament as the Midwest favorite as well as the second-most likely team to win the national title at 14.0%. Yaxel Lendeborg is second in the country in WAR, although the 6-foot-9, 240-pound power forward is nursing a low ankle sprain suffered during the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan’s biggest challenger is likely to be Iowa State, which is fourth in TRACR entering the tournament, and was the Opta supercomputer’s No. 2 team at the start of the season. The Cyclones’ duo of Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey go into the tournament ranked second and sixth, respectively, in DRIP – the only team with two players ranked in the top 14. 

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. Michigan: 72.7% Sweet 16, 34.6% Final Four
• 2. Iowa State: 66.0%, 21.8%
• 3. Virginia: 50.1%, 10.1%
• 4. Alabama: 53.1%, 11.2%
• 5. Texas Tech: 33.4%, 4.8%
• 6. Tennessee: 36.8%, 6.2%
• 7. Kentucky: 22.0%, 3.8%
• 8. Georgia: 16.6%, 3.5%
• 9. Saint Louis: 10.1%, 1.7%
• 10. Santa Clara: 10.9%, 0.8%
• 11. (First Four) SMU/Miami (OH): 11.0%, 0.9%
• 12. Akron: 8.5%, 0.5%
• 13. Hofstra: 4.9%, 0.1%
• 14. Wright State: 2.1%, <0.1%
• 15. Tennessee State: 1.1%, <0.1%
• 16. (First Four) UMBC/Howard: 0.6%, <0.1%

West Region

Top-seeded seed Arizona enters the tournament as the favorite to advance out of the West and holds the third-highest probability for winning the national title. The Wildcats are one of only four in the field with two players (Brayen Burries and Jaden Bradley) ranked in the top 20 nationally in WAR, a reflection of the balanced roster that has helped power them to the No. 3 TRACR rating.

Purdue could be Arizona’s biggest challenger in the region, also one of the four teams with two players ranked in the top 20 in WAR. Senior guard Braden Smith is third, underscoring his value as one of the most impactful players in college basketball this season, while Fletcher Loyer isn’t too far behind at 12.

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. Arizona: 77.2% Sweet 16, 36.5% Final Four
• 2. Purdue: 63.9%, 17.9%
• 3. Gonzaga: 57.1%, 15.6%
• 4. Arkansas: 50.4%, 9.6%
• 5. Wisconsin: 38.3%, 6.3%
• 6. BYU: 26.7%, 4.3%
• 7. Miami (FL): 21.6%, 3.0%
• 8. Villanova: 10.5%, 1.4%
• 9. Utah State: 12.0%, 1.6%
• 10. Missouri: 13.4%, 1.1%
• 11. (First Four) NC State/Texas: 14.7%, 2.2%
• 12. High Point: 7.2%, 0.3%
• 13. Hawaii: 4.0%, 0.1%
• 14. Kennesaw State: 1.5%, <0.1%
• 15. Queens University: 1.1%, <0.1%
• 16. LIU: 0.4%, <0.1%

South Region

While Florida, Houston and Illinois enter the tournament in a virtual tie in overall TRACR, Florida’s No. 1 seed and easier path makes it the favorite to get out of the region and have a chance for a repeat national title.

Houston will be looking to avenge last year’s heartbreaking loss in the title game and is led by senior guard Emanuel Sharp, who’s ninth the nation’s tight DRIP rankings.

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. Florida: 71.8% Sweet 16, 28.4% Final Four
• 2. Houston: 60.4%, 17.0%
• 3. Illinois: 64.3%, 21.2%
• 4. Nebraska: 42.1%, 7.7%
• 5. Vanderbilt: 48.3%, 11.4%
• 6. North Carolina: 22.6%, 3.5%
• 7. Saint Mary: 21.7%, 3.1%
• 8. Clemson: 11.7%, 1.2%
• 9. Iowa: 16.3%, 2.8%
• 10. Texas A&M: 16.5%, 2.3%
• 11. VCU: 11.4%, 1.0%
• 12. McNeese: 7.6%, 0.2%
• 13. Troy: 2.0%, <0.1%
• 14. Penn: 1.7%, <0.1%
• 15. Idaho: 1.5%, <0.1%
• 16. (First Four) Lehigh/Prairie View A&M (0.2%, <0.1%

Three Questions

Who Deserved to Be the Final No. 1 Seed?

After getting blown out by Vanderbilt in an SEC Tournament semifinal, Florida’s odds of getting a No. 1 seed appeared to be in jeopardy, but losses by UConn and Houston also that day helped the Gators maintain their spot. But who deserved the last 1-seed according to TRACR?

Iowa State ranks fourth entering the tournament (behind clear 1-seeds Duke, Michigan and Arizona). Florida, Houston, Purdue and Illinois were tightly congested for the fifth to eighth TRACR spots on Selection Sunday. Based on Iowa State’s TRACR ranking, the Cyclones deserved to be the last 1-seed, with Florida, Houston, Purdue and Illinois as 2-seeds. 

Who Has the Toughest Region?

The NCAA Tournament selection committee did a good job of keeping the regions relatively even, as the average TRACR of the South Region is 29.3 for seeds 11 or higher, compared to 29.9 for the Midwest, 28.6 for the West, and 28.8 for the East.

How Balanced is TRACR Seeding?

When grouping TRACR based on seeds, generally a high seed means a better TRACR overall, with the one exception being the No. 5 seeds having a higher TRACR on average than 4-seeds.

This is due to St. John’s and Vanderbilt ranking higher than any 4-seed in TRACR, making them more likely to advance to the Sweet 16 than even Kansas and Nebraska in their respective regions.

Seed: Avg. TRACR

• No. 1: 42.2
• No. 2: 36.9
• No. 3: 34.3
• No. 4: 29.8
• No. 5: 30.6
• No. 6: 28.8
• No. 7: 26.6
• No. 8: 25.3
• No. 9: 24.0
• No. 10: 20.0
• No. 11: 19.1
• No. 12: 13.4
• No. 13: 5.8
• No. 14: 3.1
• No. 15: -0.6
• No. 16: -4.8

As for first-round upset picks? The only two lower seeds to have higher probabilities are 9-seeds, Iowa (54.9%) over Clemson, and Utah State (50.8%) slightly over Villanova.

But if the history of this tournament has taught us anything, it’s that the numbers rarely capture the full madness of March. Yes, upsets, buzzer beaters and unlikely heroes are always lurking somewhere in the bracket.

For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post 2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who’s Favored to Win March Madness? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Norwich City’s immediate future looked bleak.

Results were horrific, the atmosphere toxic. Fans had utterly lost faith in manager Liam Manning, the pressure was increasing on sporting director Ben Knapper, and relegation to League One looked as realistic a threat as it had at any point since they were last in the third tier (2009-10).

It was only November, so there was still time, but how realistic was it to expect a dramatic change in fortunes? Either way, a long season and a fight for survival looked to be ahead of them.

Only, the dramatic change in fortunes that many would have seen as unrealistic has actually come to fruition.

They’ve gone from looking certainties for a relegation battle to fans trying to work out if a push for the play-offs is possible. Sure, that does look slightly beyond them given how late into the season we are, but their form over the past few months suggests anything’s possible.

Philippe Clement is seen by most associated with the club as the architect of their turnaround.

When he took over on 18 November, Norwich were second from bottom in the Championship with nine points from 15 games; they’d lost all eight of their home matches across all competitions at that point, and the mood around the club was glum, to say the least.

The size of Clement’s task became all the more apparent to him after Norwich were thrashed 4-1 away to Birmingham City in his first game.

Before that game, both he and Knapper concluded the squad wasn’t fit enough, with Manning’s approach to training supposedly more focused on being fun.

Clement’s first day marked a sudden and stark shift. He put the players through the ‘bleep test’ to fully understand their fitness levels; he pointed out that the majority “of goals against [have been conceded in the] second half”, and the surest way to improve that was to make the players fitter.

He set his stall out early – Norwich were going to be put through their paces.

The new manager’s start was somewhat inauspicious in terms of results, with four points from his first five matches hardly startling. Nevertheless, even that was a step in the right direction considering Manning lost eight of his last nine matches (D1).

Clement was clear from the outset that he wasn’t there to perform “miracles”. It was a case of improving fitness to then take incremental steps, though it’s fair to say he’s exceeded all expectations up to this point.

His work started with reducing their goals conceded in the second half. In the Championship this season, 70% of the goals Norwich conceded prior to Clement’s arrival came in the second half.

Furthermore, although they were ahead of only Sheffield Wednesday in the table, they’d actually spent a greater proportion of match time (19%) winning than five other clubs. And their 33% spent losing was better than that of six clubs. Obviously, these figures were still poor in the wider context of the league, but they also suggested the team weren’t quite as bad as their table position let on. Again, their physical condition was seen as central to this.

Since Clement came in, however, there’s been a 50/50 split between goals conceded in the first and second periods, while their game-state figures have changed dramatically. Under the Belgian, they’ve spent just 18% of match time trailing, a figure only four teams can improve on, while they also rank fifth for proportion of match time spent winning (37%).

There are signs of improved collective fitness in the way Norwich now play as well.

The Canaries averaged just 5.5 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 metres of the opposition’s goal line) per game when Manning was in charge, the seventh fewest. Their 7.4 per game under Clement is the fifth-highest average in the Championship.

It’s not just fitness that plays a role in such areas of the game, but a team would do well to become effective at winning the ball high up the pitch without being at a certain level physically.

Their fitness work is also relevant with respect to how they operate with the ball, as Norwich look considerably different to the side who ambled rather hopelessly through the opening three months of the season.

Back then, there was a greater emphasis on ball retention. As such, they recorded the fourth-most (26) build-up attacks (open-play sequences comprising 10+ passes ending with a touch in the opposition’s box or a shot) and the second-fewest (11) direct attacks (open-play sequences starting just inside the team’s own half that have at least 50% of movement towards the opposition’s goal and end with a touch in the opposition’s box or a shot) prior to Manning being dismissed.

But from 18 November onwards, their 32 build-ups are only the 11th most and their 44 direct attacks put them third. That is a distinct philosophical shift.

They aren’t one-dimensional, but Norwich have a clear strength with a host of attacking players who are well suited to transitional football. That has undoubtedly been aided by some of their January arrivals, such as Mohamed Touré, Ali Ahmed and Paris Maghoma, but Clement and Knapper deserve praise nonetheless for the changes they’ve implemented.

Norwich haven’t been without their challenges either.

While generally favouring a 4-2-3-1 in-possession shape that often morphs into something resembling 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 out of possession, Clement has had to tinker a fair amount. He’s started with a back three/five six times in the Championship and been required to jam square pegs into round holes consistently due to a seemingly never-ending injury crisis.

When he took over, the manager counted 10 players as unavailable; ahead of Saturday’s 2-0 win over Preston North End, he suggested that was up to “14 or 15”, and at least eight of them are considered long-term absentees.

It was also only recently that the promising and influential Pelle Mattsson missed eight games, while left-back has been a problem position all season.

The acrimonious exit of Josh Sargent was another notable side story that Clement impressively prevented becoming a major distraction. The United States international had become one of the most reliable centre-forwards in the Championship, but on the eve of the January FA Cup defeat of Walsall, he sent the manager a text to make himself unavailable for selection due to “transfer things in his head” amid interest from MLS side Toronto.

Clement vowed there’d be “consequences”. He swiftly banished Sargent to the under-21s and there he remained until Norwich eventually sold him to Toronto at the end of February in a deal potentially worth over £20 million. The fee may become an MLS record.

When Sargent was demoted, Clement fortunately already had an effective replacement in Jovon Makama. He’d scored half (6/12) of Norwich’s goals under the new manager at that point, four more than the USA international, and then he scored a hat-trick in that FA Cup win over Walsall.

The 22-year-old, a summer recruit from Lincoln City, had handled the step up well and became a real nuisance to Championship defences thanks to the combination of his giant frame, hold-up play and finishing ability.

In fact, he ranks 10th among forwards (100+ aerials) for aerial success (46.5%) and eighth among all Championship players (20+ shots) for shot conversion rate (23.3%) this season.

But then, in mid-February, he was ruled out for the season due to a broken foot in another unfortunate blow to Norwich.

And yet, despite the vast selection issues, the sale of a key player and efforts to embed five winter signings, Clement’s team have still managed to earn positive results at a rate comparable to – or better than – the best teams in the division.

Since the day of Clement’s appointment, Norwich’s total of 42 points in the Championship is bettered by only Ipswich Town (45), Millwall (43) and Coventry City (43), all of whom are in the top four. On a points-per-game basis, Norwich (1.91) are second only to Ipswich (1.96) over the same period.

But if you look over a slightly shorter and more recent period, since the turn of the year, Norwich’s 2.3 points per game is unmatched in the Championship.

Ultimately, Norwich’s dismal start to the season has probably given them too much to do when it comes to reaching the play-offs. If they maintained that rate of 2.3 points per game, they’d win another 20.7 – round that up to 21 and add to their current total, they’d finish the campaign on 72 points. Eleven teams have finished sixth or higher in the second tier since 1995 with 72 points or fewer, and the Opta supercomputer gives them a 2.14% chance of getting a top-six finish, so it’s not completely out of the question. But it would be an almighty achievement considering the injury problems they still have.

Even if they do fall short of the play-offs, the evidence suggests they are well set up for the future.

The appointment of Clement, who’s coached several clubs in the Europa League and Champions League, was seen as a significant coup. But he accepted Norwich’s call based on the ambition of their hierarchy and majority owner, Mark Attanasio, an American businessman who also controls MLB franchise the Milwaukee Brewers.

A big believer in the power of data, Attanasio’s ambition is for Norwich to be a “perennial Premier League club” – they’ve got to get there first, however.

That’s probably not going to happen this year, though Clement is working wonders with a squad that still has “so much growth” in it, captain Kenny McLean recently said on BBC Radio Norfolk.

Quite right. The average age of Norwich’s starting XIs this season is 25 years, 33 days, making it the second youngest in the Championship. “I think that’s exciting for the manager, his staff. It’s exciting for us as players to see what we can do,” McLean added.

Norwich aren’t perfect. Their second-half display in the weekend’s win over Preston attracted criticism, for instance. But after several mostly underwhelming years since Daniel Farke left, there are shoots of optimism, a sense their ‘Moneyball’ approach under Knapper is beginning some promise, and they’ve a manager with long-term vision who’s adored by the fanbase for the phenomenal job he’s doing.

Norwich City’s immediate future now looks very bright indeed.

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The post Fast Football, Improved Fitness, Signings for the Future: Norwich City’s Future Looked Bleak, Then Philippe Clement Arrived appeared first on Opta Analyst.

In the NCAA Tournament, the ball handler who finds the open man or feeds a teammate cutting to the basket can possibly turn the momentum of a game and help his team advance to the next round.

Since the NCAA began tracking assists in 1984, a player has 15 or more in nine different men’s tournament games – and his team has gone 7-2.

We’ll fire up the March Madness time machine to go back and revisit the NCAA Division I men’s college basketball tournament games with 15 or more assists (although we don’t have to go back far for Kansas State guard Markquis Nowell joining the NCAA Tournament Records):

Players With Most Assists in an NCAA Tournament Game

1. – 19 Assists, Markquis Nowell, Kansas State vs. Michigan State (March 23, 2023)

Nowell put on a show during the 2023 NCAA Tournament, averaging 23.5 points and 13.5 assists while leading third-seeded Kansas State to the Elite Eight. In the Sweet 16 at Madison Square Garden, he finished with 20 points and an NCAA Tournament-record 19 assists as the Wildcats topped seventh-seeded Michigan State 98-93 in overtime – breaking UNLV guard Mark Wade’s previous record that stood for nearly 26 years.

Nowell, a senior guard, also starred with 30 points, 12 assists, five steals and five 3-pointers in Kansas State’s 79-76 loss to ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic in the Elite Eight.

2. 18 Assists – Mark Wade, UNLV vs. Indiana (March 28, 1987)

No player has amassed more assists in a single NCAA Tournament than Wade in 1987, with the highwater mark coming in UNLV’s loss to eventual champion Indiana in the Final Four. Incredibly, the 5-foot-11 left-hander dished out 18 assists without committing a turnover in the 97-93 defeat, a game that also featured teammate Freddie Banks draining a then-NCAA Tournament record 10 3-pointers.

An All-Big West first-team selection in the 1986-87 season, Wade recorded a tournament-record 61 assists– five more than Michigan’s Rumeal Robinson in 1989. Wade also was a solid defender, notching 18 steals, but he wasn’t much of a threat to score with only 13 points in those five tourney games.

T-3. 16 Assists – Earl Watson, UCLA vs. Maryland (March 18, 2000)

UCLA has a tradition-laden history in men’s college basketball, and Watson’s 16 assists in the 2000 second round stand as the program’s all-time high in March Madness. After assisting on 12 baskets in the sixth-seeded Bruins’ first-round win over Ball State, the then-junior Watson set the school record two days later in a 105-70 victory over third-seeded Maryland.

He didn’t turn the ball over once against the Terrapins, while producing an impressive stat line that also included 17 points, four steals and 5-of-6 shooting from 3-point range.

T-3. 16 Assists – Mitch Johnson, Stanford vs. Marquette (March 22, 2008)

Johnson never had more than eight assists in a game during his junior season in 2007-08 and assisted on just five buckets in third-seeded Stanford’s first-round win over Cornell right before he set the program’s single-game record.

Facing sixth-seeded Marquette, Johnson had 16 assists in the Cardinal’s 82-81 overtime win. His final assist came on Brook Lopez’s baseline game-winning basket with 1.3 seconds left.

In three March Madness games, Johnson averaged 9.7 assists, or five more than he averaged in 30 regular-season games.

T-3. 16 Assists – Ja Morant, Murray State vs. Marquette (March 21, 2019)

Despite Morant being a first-team All-American in 2018-19, most casual college basketball fans hadn’t seen much of the sophomore, who played for mid-major Murray State. But more and more people quickly took a closer look at the budding superstar starting with the 12th-seeded Racers’ 83-64 upset of Marquette in the 2019 NCAA Tournament first round.

Morant had 17 points, 16 assists and 11 rebounds to record the first triple-double in March Madness since Michigan State’s Draymond Green in 2012, and just the ninth in the tourney since the NCAA began tracking triple-doubles in 1986.

The Ohio Valley Conference player of the year had 28 points in the second round against fourth-seeded Florida State, but just four assists as Murray State’s season ended with a 90-62 loss.

T-6. 15 Assists – Kenny Patterson, DePaul vs. Syracuse (March 15, 1985)

T-6. 15 Assists – Keith Smart, Indiana vs. Auburn (March 14, 1987)

T-6. 15 Assists – Pepe Sanchez, Temple vs. Lafayette (March 17, 2000)

T-6. 15 Assists – Aaron Craft, Ohio State vs. George Mason (March 20, 2011)

T-6. 15 Assists – Brayden Smith, Purdue vs. Gonzaga (March 29, 2024)

T-6. 15 Assists – Brayden Smith, Purdue vs. Houston (March 28, 2025)

Teams With Most Assists in an NCAA Tournament Game

* – NCAA Tournament appearance later vacated under NCAA sanctions

36 – North Carolina vs. Loyola Marymount (CA), Second Round, March 19, 1988
35 – UNLV vs. Loyola Marymount (CA), Regional Final, March 25, 1990
35 – Kentucky vs. San Jose State, First Round, March 14, 1996
33 – Loyola Marymount (CA) vs. Michigan, Second Round, March 18, 1990
33 – Kansas vs. Chattanooga, First Round, March 17, 1994
33 – Kentucky vs. Mount St. Mary’s, First Round, March 16, 1995
32 – Arkansas vs. Georgia State, First Round, March 15,1991
32 – Kansas vs. Howard, First Round, March 20, 1992
32 – Kansas vs. South Carolina State, First Round, March 15, 1996
32 – *Michigan vs. ETSU, Second Round, March 22, 1992

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There are two ways to approach the NCAA Tournament as a neutral fan.

One way is to root for your bracket. This is what most people do during the men’s basketball tournament. When your bracket does better than your friends, you can feel a sense of superiority, and that is enticing.

But the correct way to cheer is to root for what makes it such a special tournament: chaos. After all, that’s why it’s called March Madness. None of your friends is going to remember that you picked a 5-vs.-12 game correctly in five years. But everyone will remember a 16-seed winning for the first time in 2018.

And something even more fun than UMBC winning one game is a low seed making the Final Four. UMBC was fun, but by the time everyone learned where the college was located (psst! Catonsville, Maryland), the team was already heading home. Those Cinderella national semifinal runs give everyone time to learn the players and the school.

With that in mind, here are the lowest seeds to make the Final Four. These teams represent what the NCAA basketball tourney is truly about, no matter how many brackets they ruined.

11-Seed NC State in 2024

NC State’s run to the 2024 Final Four started in true March Madness fashion, but it happened six days before its first tournament game. Trailing Virginia 58-55 in the ACC Tournament semifinals with 5.3 seconds remaining, the 10th-seeded Wolfpack corralled a missed Cavaliers’ free-throw attempt and went the length of the floor for Michael O’Connell’s game-tying, banked-in 3-pointer. He didn’t call it, but karma hasn’t caught up with NC State just yet.

The Wolfpack went on to beat top-seeded North Carolina in the conference title game and defeated Texas Tech, Oakland, Marquette and Duke to reach their fourth Final Four before falling to Purdue in Glendale, Arizona.

11-Seed UCLA in 2021

UCLA was hardly a lock to make the tournament at all in 2021. The Bruins finished 17-9 in the COVID-shortened season and lost their first conference tournament game to an Oregon State team that finished .500 in the Pac-12.

But the committee felt good UCLA was trending in the right direction enough to give the team a tournament berth, albeit with a First Four game against fellow storied program Michigan State. UCLA overcame an 11-point halftime deficit to win in overtime.

UCLA didn’t feel much like a Cinderella after that game, winning its next three games by double figures: BYU 73-62 , Abilene Christian 67-47 and Alabama 88-78. Then, with a trip to the Final Four on the line in the Elite Eight, UCLA held off Michigan by not allowing a field goal in the last five minutes. The Bruins got 28 points from Johnny Juzang and held on for a 51-49 win.

The season ended the game after, however, as Gonzaga took down UCLA in a much-higher scoring affair with a trip to the national championship game at stake. The Bulldogs used 25 points from Drew Timme and a balanced offensive effort to beat UCLA 93-90 in overtime.

11-Seed Loyola Chicago in 2018

The same year UMBC knocked off Virginia, an 11-seed made the Final Four.

Not only did Loyola Chicago make the Final Four, but the team seemed determined to make each game as entertaining as possible to start the tournament.

Donte Ingram hit a 3-pointer with less than a second left to lift the Ramblers to an opening-round 64-62 win over Miami (FL).

Clayton Custer decided to get the go-ahead bucket in the next round much earlier, as he hit a jumper with 3.6 seconds left to give Loyola a 63-62 win over Tennessee.

In the regional semifinal, Loyola showed it could play with a late lead as well, as Marques Townes hit a 3-pointer with 6.3 seconds left to give Loyola a four-point lead. It proved to be an important shot as Nevada scored to make the final 69-68.

The Ramblers had mercy on their fans’ hearts in the regional final, as Loyola easily dispatched Kansas State. The run would end with a trip to the basketball championship on the line, though, when Loyola couldn’t hold a seven-point halftime lead and fell to Michigan 69-57.

11-Seed VCU in 2011

VCU was another team that played in the First Four as an 11-seed and still made the Final Four.

After being tied at halftime in the First Four game against USC, VCU used a strong second half to pull away 59-46.

The team held Georgetown’s starters to just 27 points in the next round and blew out the Hoyas. The Rams put the clamps on Purdue’s bench players the next round, allowing only five bench points in a 94-76 win. They finally had a close game in the regional semifinal, beating Florida State 72-71 despite allowing 20 offensive rebounds. VCU then faced the top seed in the regional final, but was undeterred, using a strong first half and 26 points from Jamie Skeen to beat Kansas 71-61.

VCU faced Butler in the Final Four in a matchup between an 11-seed and an 8-seed, but Shelvin Mack’s 24 points proved to be too much for the Rams.

11-Seed George Mason in 2006

Four 11 seeds made the Final Four from 2006-21, but it was a real rarity before that. George Mason became the second 11-seed to make that run and the first since 1986 when the team took over March in 2006.

The Patriots lost in the second round of the CAA Tournament but received an at-large bid and ran with it. The team beat Michigan State 75-65 in the first round and came back from a seven-point halftime deficit to beat North Carolina 65-60 in the second round. From there, the team handled fellow upstart Wichita State 63-55 in the third round to earn a date with No. 1-seeded UConn.

George Mason was a heavy underdog, but prevailed in overtime against the Huskies. All five Patriot starters were in double figures.

The Patriots ran into one of the elite teams in college basketball history in the Final Four, losing to Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Florida 73-58. The Gators would go on to win the championship and then repeat the following year. But George Mason had quite the run for a team that entered the year never having won an NCAA Tournament game.

11-Seed LSU in 1986

The first 11-seed to make the Final Four came in 1986, when an LSU Tigers team that went .500 in SEC play went on a tear in the NCAA Tournament.

LSU got 25 points from Anthony Wilson to beat Purdue 94-87 in the opening round, then won a nail-biter over Memphis in the second round. Don Redden’s 27 points led LSU over Mark Price’s Georgia Tech team in the next game.

The Tigers faced a familiar foe in the regional final in fellow SEC competitor Kentucky. The Wildcats had beaten LSU three times that season, but the fourth time was the charm for LSU, as the team escaped with a 59-57 win. The run ended the next game, however, when eventual champion Louisville beat LSU 88-77.

10-Seed Syracuse in 2016

Weirdly enough, five 11 -seeds have made the Final Four, but only one 10-seed has in the tournament’s history – the 2016 Syracuse Orange.

The team started the tournament with a couple easy wins, beating Dayton 70-51 and Middle Tennessee 75-50.

In the third round, Syracuse found itself in a close game against fellow double-digit seed Gonzaga, but escaped with a 63-60 win. Then, in the regional final against the top seed, Syracuse held Malcolm Brogdon to 2-of-14 shooting and beat Virginia 68-62. Malachi Richardson led the way with 23 points.

Like all of the double-digit seeds, the run came to an end before a title, as North Carolina beat Syracuse 83-66 to advance to the championship game.

9-Seed Florida Atlantic in 2023

FAU had a magical run to the Final Four in 2023, with all five of the team’s games in the NCAA Tournament being decided by single digits.

Nicholas Boyd hit a floater with 2.5 seconds left to give the Owls their first tournament win, 66-65 victory over Memphis. FAU wasn’t done there.

The Owls were probably expecting top-seeded Purdue in the second round, but found themselves against 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson instead after an upset for the ages. FAU won that game 78-70. The Owls used a dominant second half to beat Tennessee in the next game. Kansas State was the last opponent in the way of a Final Four berth, and FAU used a balanced effort to overset Markquis Nowell’s 30 points and win 79-76.

After several close wins, FAU found itself on the wrong end of a heartbreaker in the Final Four. Lamont Butler hit a jumper at the buzzer to give San Diego State a 72-71 win and end the Owls’ incredible run.

9-Seed Wichita State in 2013

After VCU’s run just two years prior as an 11-seed, the ninth-seeded Shockers’ march didn’t seem as unlikely. But the team is still one of the lowest-seeded teams to dance all the way to the Final Four.

Wichita State started its run with an easy 73-55 win over Pittsburgh. Then came the big test against top-seeded Gonzaga, and the Shockers aced it with a 76-70 win. After that, Wichita State handled upstart La Salle 72-58 in the Sweet 16.

Ohio State was the 2-seed in the regional, but Wichita State looked like the higher seed, jumping out to a double-digit halftime lead and holding on for a 70-66 win. The run ended in the Final Four with a 72-68 loss to title-game winner Louisville out of the Big East.

9-Seed Penn in 1979

The Penn Quakers were the darlings of the Ivy League in 1979 and proved to be a force in the NCAA Tournament.

Penn got 27 points from Tony Price to beat Iona 73-69 in the first round. Then, in one of the bigger upsets in college basketball history, the Quakers knocked off North Carolina 72-71. The run didn’t end there, though, as Penn won the regional semifinal over Syracuse.

With a trip to the Final Four on the line, Price delivered again with 21 points, and Penn escaped with a 64-62 win.

The team’s reward? A date with Michigan State out of the Big Ten and some guy named Magic Johnson. The Spartans proved too much for Penn, winning 101-67 before beating Larry Bird and Indiana State in the final. But the same year that the Johnson/Bird rivalry was born, the Penn Quakers’ run was etched into history.

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Manchester City vs Real Madrid Key Stats

• The Opta supercomputer rates Manchester City as a 58.5% shot to win the second leg against Real Madrid but gives them just a 13.4% chance of make the quarter-finals.
• Real Madrid have never been eliminated after winning the first leg of a knockout tie by three or more goals.
• Pep Guardiola has not reversed a first-leg defeat in the Champions League since the 2014-15 season with Bayern Munich.

The stats do not make pretty reading for Manchester City as they attempt to pull off one of the all-time great Champions League rescue jobs against Real Madrid.

Federico Valverde‘s sensational first-half hat-trick at the Bernabéu last week means Madrid hold a commanding 3-0 lead ahead of the last-16 second leg at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday.

Madrid followed that up with a 4-1 rout of Elche on Saturday, and they’ll be brimming with confidence heading to Manchester.

And the smart money would be on the Spanish giants completing the job. This is the 36th time they have won the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie by three-plus goals in major European competition and they’ve never been eliminated from in those 35 instances.

Álvaro Arbeloa has not yet fully convinced the Bernabéu faithful he is the man to lead the team long term, but he could become the first Madrid boss to win each of his first four Champions League knockout matches. He is one of only two to win his first three, along with Carlo Ancelotti.

Madrid restricted City to just eight shots and 0.59 expected goals in the first leg, both of which represent the lowest totals for them in a Champions League game this season. Prior to last week, Madrid were averaging 15 shots faced and 1.51 xG against per game in the competition this term.

A side with City’s quality shouldn’t be counted out, but head coach Pep Guardiola will need to buck one concerning trend. He has not seen his side progress from a Champions League knockout tie after losing the first leg since the 2014-15 quarter-finals with Bayern Munich (7-4 on aggregate v Porto), failing to advance in each of the five instances since then, and in all three with City.

Guardiola could also fail to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League for a second consecutive season (eliminated in the play-off round in 2024-25). He was only eliminated prior to the quarter-finals in one of his first 15 editions as a manager in the competition (2016-17 with City).

If City, who drew 1-1 with West Ham on Saturday, are to produce one of the most memorable comebacks in the tournament’s history, they will need much more from star striker Erling Haaland.

The Norway ace did not attempt a shot in the first leg, which was just the second time in his Champions League career that he has not had at least one (also against Paris Saint-Germain for Borussia Dortmund in March 2020), and the first time in 38 games in the competition for City.

Joško Gvardiol and Rico Lewis remain absent for City, while Madrid superstar Kylian Mbappé is an ongoing concern with a knee injury. Jude Bellingham is still sidelined, and the likes of Éder Militão and Rodrygo are long-term absentees for Los Blancos.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head

City have now lost three of their previous four Champions League games against Madrid, winning the other.

That represents as many defeats as they suffered against Los Blancos through their first 12 meetings in the competition (W4, D5).

Madrid are aiming to eliminate City from the knockouts for a fifth time (having done so in 2015-16, 2021-22, 2023-24 and 2024-25).

Only Bayern Munich have been eliminated by an opponent on more than five occasions in the knockouts (7 v Real Madrid).

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction

In terms of the game itself, Manchester City are actually pretty heavily fancied by the Opta supercomputer, which gives the hosts a 58.5% chance of winning the game.

By contrast, Real Madrid have a 22.1% win probability, with the draw rated as an 19.4% prospect.

As you may expect, though, City’s chances of progressing to the quarter-finals look bleak. They progressed in just 13.4% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations, while they are now considered just a 1.7% shot at winning the tournament.

Madrid have an 86.6% probability of seeing out this tie and making the quarters, while their chances of winning a 16th European crown stand at 8.7%.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups

Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Nico O’Reilly, Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Savinho, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenyo.

Head coach: Pep Guardiola

Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rüdiger, Dean Huijsen, Fran García, Federico Valverde, Thiago Pitarch, Aurelien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Brahim Díaz, Vinícius Júnior.

Head coach: Álvaro Arbeloa

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday at the Etihad Stadium, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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Chelsea vs PSG Key Stats 

• Despite their heavy loss in the first leg, Chelsea beat PSG in 45% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of this second-leg match. 
• Chelsea have lost their last three Champions League knockout games. They have never lost four in a row.  
• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has averaged a goal (6) or assist (4) every 63 minutes in the UEFA Champions League this season for PSG (10 in 10 games). 

Chelsea face a daunting challenge to keep their Champions League campaign alive when they take on Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg of their last-16 tie at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday. 

A tightly contested first leg in Paris turned on an error from Filip Jörgensen in the 74th minute, with Vitinha capitalising before Khvicha Kvaratskhelia‘s late double punished the downbeat visitors and secured a commanding 5-2 aggregate lead. 

The Blues are not used to such heavy defeats on the continent – particularly against the team they beat in the FIFA Club World Cup final less than a year ago. However, the five goals conceded in the first leg was just two shy of the most they have shipped in a two-legged Champions League knockout tie (seven versus Bayern Munich in the 2019-20 last 16). 

Enzo Fernández set up Malo Gusto‘s goal at the Parc des Princes before getting on the scoresheet himself, but he drew criticism for throwing the ball towards Jörgensen after the goalkeeper’s costly mistake. 

But with the Argentina international providing a team-high five goal involvements (three goals, two assists) in the Champions League this season, Chelsea will need him to play a more supportive role on Tuesday. 

Jörgensen was dropped by Liam Rosenior on Saturday, but his replacement Robert Sánchez was unable to stop Chelsea falling to a shock 1-0 loss at home to Newcastle United. 

The Blues have not won at home in any competition since 31 January, making it even more unlikely they will become the first team to eliminate the holders in the knockout stages after losing the first leg by three goals since Deportivo La Coruña stunned AC Milan in the 2003-04 quarter-finals. 

And if there is anyone who knows something about incredible Champions League comebacks, it is PSG boss Luis Enrique. 

The Spaniard steered Barcelona to an incredible 6-5 aggregate success over the Ligue 1 side in the 2016-17 last 16 after losing the first leg 4-0 – a result etched into history as La Remontada.  

This time Luis Enrique will be doing everything to keep hold of the lead, which is something he has excelled at in Paris, guiding them to victory in 66.7% of the knockout games (12/18) he has overseen. 

PSG had the weekend off after their Ligue 1 match with Nantes was postponed to allow them to prepare for the return fixture – a decision that was made before the first leg took place. 

They have had 13 different goalscorers in the competition this season and have practically their whole squad available, with only Fabián Ruiz and Quentin Ndjantou expected to be unavailable.  

Chelsea, meanwhile, are once again unlikely to be able to call upon Jamie Gittens and Estêvão, who are both struggling with hamstring injuries. Pedro Neto could also miss out after UEFA opened an investigation into his push on a ball boy in the latter stages of the first leg. 

Chelsea vs PSG Head-to-Head 

Chelsea have not beaten PSG in their past five Champions League meetings, drawing two and losing three. It is their joint-longest winless run against a single opponent in the competition, having gone five without a victory against Bayern from April 2005 until September 2025. 

PSG’s first-leg success enhanced their impressive recent record against English teams in the Champions League, winning four and drawing one in their past five such encounters. A victory at Stamford Bridge would see them go six without loss for the first time. 

Luis Enrique’s side are also looking to progress from a Champions League knockout tie against English opponents for the fourth straight time, having previously got past Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal. 

Prior to 2024-25, they had only progressed from two of their six knockout stage ties against English sides in the competition. 

Chelsea vs PSG Prediction 

Chelsea are marginal favourites to win the second leg, coming out on top in 45% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations. PSG, meanwhile, were triumphant in 33.2% of the projections. 

Even if Rosenior’s side do manage to get the win on the night, it is hard to see them being able to do enough to stop PSG marching into the quarter-finals. 

This is reflected by the fact Chelsea only did enough to progress in 5.9% of the sims.

Chelsea vs PSG Predicted Lineups 

Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Reece James, Moisés Caicedo, Enzo Fernández, Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, Joao Pedro. 

Head coach: Liam Rosenior 

Paris Saint-Germain: Matvey Safonov, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Vitinha, João Neves, Désiré Doué, Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. 

Head coach: Luis Enrique 

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday’s game in London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides. 

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There were some mouth-watering last-16 ties in the Champions League last week, and several leading to big first-leg victories.

Five of the eight ties head into the second leg with one team ahead by at least three goals, but will any of them see an iconic turnaround this week?

As throughout the competition, the Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way and has once again got data-backed predictions for every match for us to pore over.

What does the supercomputer think will happen in the second legs? Find out below.

Tuesday 17 March

Sporting CP vs Bodø/Glimt (agg: 0-3)

Every neutral’s favourite Norwegians are at it again. Bodø/Glimt were on course to finish outside the top 24 in the league phase with just two games remaining, before beating Manchester City and Atlético Madrid to clinch a play-off spot. They then defeated Inter home and away to reach the last 16, and are now in a comfortable position against Sporting CP and on the verge of the quarter-finals.

Their 3-0 victory on home soil last week has given Kjetil Knutsen’s side a great chance of progressing, in what would be just the third time a Norwegian team have eliminated a Portuguese opponent in the knockout stages of a major European competition, after Molde vs União de Leiria (2003-2004 UEFA Cup) and Viking vs Sporting (1999-2000 UEFA Cup).

However, all hope is not lost for Sporting. They have overturned a three-goal deficit to progress from a knockout tie in major European competition before, beating Manchester United 5-0 in the second leg of their 1963-64 Cup Winners’ Cup quarter-final, after losing the first leg 4-1.

Bodø/Glimt are heavy favourites to go through, though, advancing in 86.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations. Sporting do have a 57.2% chance of at least winning the second leg at the Estádio José Alvalade, while the visitors won 23.1% of sims.

Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain (agg: 2-5)

When Khvicha Kvaratskhelia came on for PSG in the 62nd minute at the Parc des Princes last Wednesday with the score at 2-2, there will have been some Chelsea fans fearing that the talented Georgian would make an impact, and he certainly did.

Kvaratskhelia produced an assist and two goals to make the scoreline look a lot more one-sided than the game had really been, and put the reigning European champions in control against the Premier League side.

PSG could eliminate their fourth consecutive English opponent from a two-legged Champions League knockout-stage tie, having seen off Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal on their way to the 2024-25 final. Before last season, they had only progressed from two of their six such ties against English teams in the competition.

Unsurprisingly, the supercomputer is quite big on their chances of advancing. PSG do so in 94.1% of sims, and even picked up a win at Stamford Bridge in 33.2%. Chelsea were victorious in 45%, so are favourites to win on the night, but it’s not likely to be by enough goals to save their European campaign.

Man City vs Real Madrid (agg: 0-3)

Another tie where one team are looking to overturn a three-goal deficit. It’s hard enough against anyone, but especially Real Madrid, who haven’t been eliminated in any of the previous 35 ties in major European competition in which they have held a 3+ goal lead after the first leg.

On top of that, Pep Guardiola hasn’t progressed from a Champions League knockout tie after losing the first leg since he was at Bayern Munich (2014-15 quarter-finals vs FC Porto – 7-4 on agg). He has failed to advance in each of the five instances since then, and in all three with Manchester City.

Federico Valverde’s hat-trick in the Bernabéu has put Real Madrid in a very strong position against City, and Madrid completed the job in 86.6% of simulations.

Guardiola’s men are heavily-fancied to win the second leg in Manchester on Tuesday by the supercomputer (58.5%), while Real Madrid earned another victory in 22.1% of sims.

Los Blancos don’t need to win on the night, of course, but Álvaro Arbeloa would become the first Madrid boss to win each of his four Champions League knockout-stage matches if they do.

Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen (agg: 1-1)

Kai Havertz broke the hearts of the fans who once cheered him last week when he scored from the spot late on, earning Arsenal a draw at the BayArena.

Bayer Leverkusen were more than a match for the Premier League leaders, with Robert Andrich beating the Gunners at their own game and scoring from a corner, only for Havertz to come off the bench to equalise against his former club.

Avoiding defeat bodes well for Arsenal. When winning or drawing away from home in the first leg, they have progressed from 17 of their 20 two-legged knockout-stage ties in major European competition.

With home advantage in the second leg, Mikel Arteta’s side are big favourites to go through here, advancing in 79% of the supercomputer’s sims. They won on the night at the Emirates Stadium in 69.8% of sims, while Leverkusen caused an upset with victory in 12.8%. The remaining 17.9% ended in a draw, taking the tie to extra-time and possibly penalties.

Wednesday 18 March

Barcelona vs Newcastle United (agg: 1-1)

The action was left until late at St. James’ Park last Tuesday night, with Harvey Barnes thinking he’d won it for Newcastle when he scored in the 86th minute. However, Lamine Yamal’s stoppage-time penalty levelled things, leaving the tie finely poised ahead of the second leg at Camp Nou.

It was perhaps an even more crucial equaliser than many realised. When drawing the first leg away from home, Barcelona have progressed from each of their last 10 Champions League knockout ties. The last time they were eliminated was in 2002-03 against Juventus at the quarter-final stage, though, so maybe the black and white shirts will trigger some trepidation.

Newcastle’s league form has been up and down, but they’ve been strong in Europe. Eddie Howe’s men are unbeaten in their last six Champions League games (W3 D3). Victory here would see them win consecutive away games in the competition for the first time, after they won 6-1 at Qarabag in the play-off round.

Barça are favourites to go through, though, doing so in 67.1% of simulations. Hansi Flick’s men won on the night in 56.8% of sims, while Newcastle secured victory in 21.9%. A draw would take it to extra-time and possibly penalties, which happened in 21.3% of sims.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Atlético Madrid (agg: 2-5)

With everything going on at Tottenham recently, it’s difficult to appreciate the importance and significance of a Champions League last-16 game under the lights in north London. Relegation remains a real concern in the league, despite a spirited draw at Liverpool on Sunday.

Atlético were ruthless in the Spanish capital last week, taking a 4-0 lead inside just 22 minutes. The game ultimately finished 5-2 as Spurs stopped the bleeding somewhat, but with a number of players missing, hopes of a turnaround on home soil will be slim.

Their home form in the Premier League is dire, having only won twice in 15 home league games this season (D4 L9), but Spurs have thrived at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Europe.

They’ve won all four of their Champions League home games by an aggregate score of 10-0., and could become the first non-Spanish side to win their first five without conceding in a single campaign, after Deportivo La Coruña in 2003-04, and Real Madrid in both 2010-11 and 2015-16.

The Opta supercomputer obviously makes Atlético massive favourites to go through (95.9%), though does at least give Spurs the edge to win on the night (38.5%), which could restore at least a little bit of confidence. Atléti stuck the dagger in with another victory in 37% of sims.

Liverpool vs Galatasaray (agg: 0-1)

There must have been a sense of déjà vu for Liverpool last Tuesday, going to Istanbul and losing to Galatasaray 1-0 for the second time this season. However, unlike their league-phase defeat, the Reds do at least get a chance for revenge on home soil.

Mario Lemina’s early goal settled things in the first leg at a raucous RAMS Park, but Liverpool will hope to use the power of Anfield to turn things around on Wednesday. They will have to play significantly better than they did in Sunday’s insipid draw against struggling Tottenham, though.

The Turkish giants will fancy their chances, but will need to improve on their away form in the Champions League to see the job through. Galatasaray have lost 20 of their last 25 games on the road in the competition (W2 D3), while they’ve lost four of their five away from home in the knockout stages (W1, vs Schalke in 2013).

Despite their poor form and being behind in the tie, Arne Slot’s men are still favourites to advance with the Opta supercomputer (58.8%). Liverpool won 69.9% of pre-match simulations, compared to Galatasaray’s 12.8%, though of course the visitors would also advance with a draw (17.3%).

Bayern Munich vs Atalanta (agg: 6-1)

If you thought we were slightly dismissive of Tottenham’s chances of getting through, just wait until you see what we’ve got to say about Atalanta.

In the play-off round, La Dea came from 2-0 down after the first leg against Borussia Dortmund to advance. However, they have given themselves a much bigger hurdle to clear this time against another Bundesliga opponent.

Bayern ran riot in Bergamo last Tuesday, thrashing Atalanta 6-1. Needless to say, no team has ever overturned a five-goal deficit after a first leg in European Cup/Champions League history, and the supercomputer reflects the likelihood of it, too.

Frankly, we think the 0.1% chance given to Atalanta to progress is rather generous, but who are we to question the mighty supercomputer?

There is a curveball to consider, though. Bayern could be without a senior goalkeeper, with Manuel Neuer and Jonas Urbig both injured, and Sven Ulreich suffering a muscle injury at the weekend against Leverkusen. Sixteen-year-old Leonard Prescott could therefore make his senior debut, having been on the bench on Saturday.

Bayern are given a 67.4% likelihood of winning again at the Allianz Arena. Atalanta earned what will surely at best be a morale-boosting win in 14.7%.

All data correct as of Monday 16 March

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In the first 74 minutes of their win over Everton on Saturday evening, Arsenal hadn’t given much indication that they would find a winner.

With the pressure slowly ramping up as the hosts toiled in attack and, at times, rode their luck at the back, concerns grew, as they have done in almost every Arsenal game of late, that this could prove to be costly slip-up.

Everton had created the better chances and hit the woodwork. They led on expected goals, and despite Arsenal dominating possession and having eight opportunities to put corners into the box, the Premier League leaders were struggling for clear-cut openings. Eberechi Eze was their most dangerous attacker, but six of his seven shots came from outside the penalty area.

At that point, Manchester City were breathing down Arsenal’s neck at the top of the table. Dropped points for Arsenal here would have meant an opportunity later in the day for City to close the gap to four points with a game in hand and a meeting between the teams at the Etihad Stadium still to come.

As it happens, they needed not worry as City went on to draw at West Ham, but with a quarter of an hour to go at the Emirates, nerves were certainly jangling.

It was curious, then, to see Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta turn to 16-year-old Max Dowman for only his third ever Premier League appearance as his side searched for a winner.

This was a bold call from a man who has been criticised in the past for being too conservative, too risk-averse. And what’s more, the move came in spite of Everton’s threat, particularly on the break, and he withdrew the near-ever-present Martín Zubimendi from the base of his midfield.

It could have backfired. Who was to know how a youngster who is still studying for his GCSEs would contend with the pressure of this game, with 60,000 Arsenal fans growing increasingly anxious in the stands?

But it proved a stroke of genius. First, Dowman’s cross – a rather hopeful delivery from a position on the right in which Bukayo Saka or Noni Madueke probably wouldn’t have put a ball in – tempted Jordan Pickford just far enough off his line to leave his goal empty for Viktor Gyökeres to open the scoring.

Then, Dowman broke upfield after an Everton corner, carrying the ball 61.3m before scoring to smash the record as the youngest player ever to score a Premier League goal. Aged just 16 years and 73 days, he broke the previous record by a whopping 197 days. It was also the sixth-longest ball carry before a goal on record in the Premier League (since 2015-16).

Dowman rightly grabbed the headlines on a historic day for him, but Arteta’s daring move deserves credit. The late goals from subs Dowman and Gyökeres added to Arsenal’s impressive numbers when it comes to contributions by substitutes this season.

The club went big last summer to improve the depth of their squad, and their efforts in the transfer market appear to have worked perfectly.

Arsenal lead the Premier League this season for both goals (11) and assists by substitutes (10). Their total of 21 goal contributions by players introduced from the bench is at least seven more than any other club.

Some of those assists have set up goals by a fellow substitute, but even when counting those goals only once, Arsenal have still more goals which have been scored or assisted by a sub than any other team in the Premier League this season (16).

Not all of them have been as crucial as Gyökeres’ on Saturday night, of course. Dowman’s, for example, was about as memorable as they come and it settled any remaining nerves as Everton threw men forward in search of an equaliser, but it didn’t affect the result; Arsenal still would have won without it.

Indeed, plenty of Arsenal’s other substitute goals or assists have added gloss to a result, including Martin Ødegaard’s assist for Eze to make it 4-1 at Spurs last month and Gyökeres’ brace against Sunderland a fortnight earlier, with Arsenal already 1-0 up.

But from Gabriel Martinelli’s equaliser at home to City on Matchday 5 and Mikel Merino’s at St James’ Park a week later, right through to Gyökeres’ tap-in against Everton this weekend (which was assisted by another sub in Piero Hincapié), key contributions by substitutes have been a consistent theme of Arsenal’s season.

The two points Gyökeres earned Arsenal on Sunday took their total for points won by their goals or assists from subs to eight for the season. Aston Villa (14), Brighton (10) and Bournemouth (nine) have all won more points through contributions from substitutes, but they all tend to have much closer games than Arsenal. And crucially, Arsenal’s main rivals in the title race, City, have fared much, much worse.

In fact, City have scored fewer goals via substitutes than any other team in the Premier League this season, with just one. And that came on the opening weekend of the season, when Rayan Cherki came off the bench for his City debut to make it 4-0 against Wolves. So, their only Premier League goal from a substitute all season came 29 matches ago, when they were already 3-0 up against a team who would take just two points from their first 19 games of the campaign.

They aren’t quite bottom of the pile for assists from subs, but with just one, they are only ahead of Everton (zero). That assist, also by Cherki, did at least earn City a couple of points as he set up their stoppage-time winner against Leeds back in November. But City’s tally of two points earned through substitute goal contributions is the second-lowest in the top flight this season, ahead only of Brentford.

Their two goal contributions by subs is the worst record in the league.

It’s hardly as though City can only look enviously at the depth Arsenal boast. In Saturday’s 1-1 draw at West Ham, they introduced Cherki, Jérémy Doku, Phil Foden and Tijjani Reijnders, four attack-minded players who would walk into just about any team in the division. Mateo Kovacic, Nathan Aké, Rúben Dias and Nico González all remained unused subs.

They have a wealth of options few other teams in the world can match, and yet manager Pep Guardiola has been almost entirely unable to affect games with his changes.

Until the last couple of weeks, that hasn’t really mattered. Before their last two games – draws against Nottingham Forest and West Ham – the title race was in their hands. They knew winning their remaining games would be enough to overtake Arsenal.

But now nine points behind, having slipped up to two relegation-threatened opponents in the last couple of weeks, the failure of their substitutes to change games all season looks like it could be fatal.

Arsenal, meanwhile, could go on to set a record for the most goal involvements by subs in a season, currently held by Brighton, who managed 25 only last season (15 goals, 10 assists).

There have been many ways in which Arsenal have outperformed City this season, but in an era when substitutes play a bigger role than ever before, Arteta’s use of them could prove to be the single-most important difference in the 2025-26 title race.

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Arsenal’s dramatic late victory over Everton on Saturday may prove to be one of the defining moments of the Premier League season. And the player who orchestrated it only turned 16 years old three months ago.

Teenage starlet Max Dowman came off the bench with the teams locked at 0-0, and he completely changed the game. It was his whipped cross that led to Viktor Gyökeres‘ opener, before Dowman himself then scored a stunning solo goal in injury-time to seal a 2-0 win at the Emirates.

His goal confirmed three crucial points in Arsenal’s title pursuit, taking them temporarily 10 points clear of second-placed Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola’s side could then only draw away at West Ham, meaning the gap at the top is nine points. As if it hadn’t already, the momentum has now overwhelmingly shifted into Arsenal’s favour.

Dowman’s goal at the weekend already feels iconic.

First, with Dowman aged just 16 years and 73 days old on Saturday, his injury-time strike made him the youngest goalscorer in Premier League history. He was 197 days younger than the previous record-holder, James Vaughan, whose record had stood for more than two decades.

But perhaps more than the numbers, could his goal become the defining moment of Arsenal’s impending title-winning campaign?

The reaction inside the stadium suggested something special was unfolding. The sound of the Arsenal crowd as Dowman broke away down the pitch, nodded the ball past Vitalii Mykolenko and sent Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall sprawling was feverish.

When he rolled the ball into the empty net, the roar was cathartic, a release of tension built up not over the course of 90 minutes, but over the last three years.

But aside from his age, Dowman entered the record books for another reason. From the moment he first carried the ball forward, Dowman covered a total of 61.3 metres before finishing into an empty net.

That run ranks as the sixth-longest carry leading directly to a goal in the Premier League since detailed data recording began in 2015-16.

Dowman’s effort places him alongside some iconic Premier League moments. His run slots in between Gabriel Martinelli’s breakaway goal against Chelsea in 2019-20 and Eden Hazard’s mazy solo effort against Arsenal in 2016-17.

There is another entry from this season on the list, too. Antoine Semenyo’s goal against Liverpool on the opening day of the campaign saw the then Bournemouth forward carry the ball 52.4 metres before scoring. That goal drops to 10th on the all-time list.

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Dowman’s goal was the headline moment against Everton, but he had already changed the game after coming on with 16 minutes remaining.

Despite being brought on in the 74th minute, he completed more dribbles (five) than any other player on the pitch, underlining how direct and progressive he was whenever he received the ball.

“It’s not only the goal that he scored. I think he changed the game,” said Mikel Arteta to Sky Sports.

“Every time he got the ball, he made things happen. It looked like we were more of a threat. To do that at that age, in this context, with this pressure, it is just not normal.”

Dowman is a special talent, and it says plenty that Arteta trusted him with the game, and perhaps the title, on the line.

If the Gunners do go on to win their first title since 2003-04, the sight of a teenager sprinting clear of the Everton defence and calmly finishing in front of a baying Emirates crowd may become one of the most defining images of their season.

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Bruno Fernandes moved to within four of the all-time Premier League seasonal assists record after creating two goals in Manchester United’s 3-1 win over Aston Villa at Old Trafford on Sunday.

Setting up Casemiro and Matheus Cunha saw the Portuguese midfielder move on to 16 assists in the 2025-26 league campaign, putting the all-time Premier League record for a single season into reach.

That record is shared by Thierry Henry (Arsenal in 2002-03) and Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City in 2019-20), who both assisted 20 goals for their teammates.

Fernandes now has eight games to tally the four assists needed to match the seasonal record, but he could even surpass that should he register five more in 2025-26.

Interestingly, the only two players to have exceeded Fernandes’ current tally after 30 games eventually failed in their quests to match Henry and De Bruyne.

Mesut Özil had 18 assists for Arsenal after 30 games in 2015-16 but only registered one more in their final eight matches of the campaign. Mohamed Salah had 17 at the same point of the 2024-25 season before also getting just one more in their last eight matches.

Fernandes’ form this season, or perhaps more specifically since October, has arguably represented his most influential period as a creative force at United.

Remarkably, none of Fernandes’ assists came in his first seven Premier League appearances of the season, with all 16 coming in his 20 appearances since the October international break.

One record Fernandes has already broken, however, is for the most assists in a single Premier League season for Manchester United.

With his two in the victory over Villa, he moved past David Beckham’s previous club record of 15 assists in 1999-00, also accelerating past compatriot Nani’s effort (14) in 2010-11.

Fernandes not only leads the Premier League assists charts in 2025-26, but he has also created more chances than any other player in the competition (98) – 40 more than anybody else – and has the highest expected assists (xA) tally with 8.8.

The 2025-26 season is, in many respects, simply the latest chapter in a remarkable body of work.

Since arriving at Manchester United from Sporting CP in 2020 and making his Premier League debut on 1 February 2020, Fernandes has created over 200 chances more than any other player in the competition (636), while only Mohamed Salah (68) has assisted more goals than he has (67).

Discounting 2019-20, when Fernandes only played the final months of the campaign for United, he has been the Premier League’s leading creator in four of his five full seasons at the club, with 2025-26 set to be the latest in which he’s dominated the chance creation rankings.

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You expect to see fewer one-sided results the deeper you get into the UEFA Champions League. But the first legs of the 2025-26 round-of-16 ties chucked out a bunch of brutal outcomes that may already spell curtains for several ties – bar some remarkable turnarounds.

Across the action last Tuesday and Wednesday, no fewer than five of the eight last-16 first-leg matches ended with deficits of three or more goals.

While some of the losers may still harbour defiant hope of turning things around next week, many on-lookers will insist all five of those ties are already dead.

On Tuesday, Atlético Madrid scored five goals in a Champions League knockout match for the first time ever as they crushed Tottenham 5-2, while Atalanta suffered their joint-heaviest defeat in European competition when losing 6-1 at home to Bayern Munich.

Then, three of Wednesday’s four matches were decided by three-goal margins.

Pep Guardiola suffered his joint-heaviest defeat in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie as Manchester City lost 3-0 to Real Madrid at the Bernabéu; Chelsea’s 5-2 defeat at Paris Saint-Germain saw them concede five goals in a single UCL game for just the second time; and Sporting CP were beaten 3-0 away to Bodø/Glimt, last losing by more on the road in a UCL match way back in March 2009.

The teams who won on Tuesday and Wednesday scored 23 goals between them; the losers managed five collectively. There have only been five matchdays in Champions League knockout history that have seen a greater disparity in goals between the winning and losing sides.

So, is there any way back for Tottenham, Atalanta, City, Chelsea and Sporting?

Well, first of all, Atalanta’s task appears all but impossible given no team have ever come back from five goals down to progress in a UCL tie, and they’d have to manage that away from home against a very impressive Bayern side. We are probably safe to rule that one as done and dusted.

As for the others, though, there is still some hope to cling to.

Now, we’re obviously talking in terms of historical precedent initially here rather than there being optimism for each of the other four sides. For instance, the prospect of Spurs turning things around given their especially poor recent form seems far less realistic than City, Chelsea or Sporting coming back from the brink, even though their deficits are identical.

All four have the same mountain to climb, it’s just that some will be better prepared for that ascent than others.

When it comes to inspiring hope, then, those clubs have four examples to look to: Deportivo La Coruña (vs Milan) in 2003-04, Barcelona (vs PSG) in 2016-17, Roma (vs Barcelona) in 2017-18, and Liverpool (vs Barcelona) in 2018-19.

Barcelona’s success over PSG in 2016-17 is the benchmark for turnarounds. They overturned a 4-0 first-leg defeat by winning 6-1 in the return game, and they remain the only club in the competition’s history to come back from a four-goal defeat in the first meeting.

It was one of the Champions League’s all-time great ties.

Unai Emery’s Paris Saint-Germain swept Barcelona aside in the first leg of their last-16 tie at the Parc des Princes to leave Barça with their work cut out. But the Catalans also had the likes of Lionel Messi and Neymar.

The second leg was an incredible affair at Camp Nou, with Barça winning 6-1 on the night and 6-5 on aggregate, substitute Sergi Roberto scoring the crucial sixth goal just 20 seconds before the end of second-half stoppage time.

That was the first time since 2003-04 that any team had overturned a first-leg deficit of three or more goals, with Deportivo the first. They’d been beaten 4-1 in San Siro, but then earned a 4-0 victory in the second leg at the Riazor to seal a famous 5-4 aggregate win, taking them into the semi-finals of the competition.

But it was as if Barça’s remarkable comeback against PSG flicked a narrative switch. Having not seen such a turnaround for 13 years, we then had them in 2017, 2018 and 2019 – and Barcelona were involved in all three.

In 2018, Barcelona’s 4-1 win over Roma at Camp Nou in the first leg of their quarter-final seemed routine enough, even accounting for two own goals by the Serie A side.

But Kostas Manolas, guilty of one of those own goals, more than made up for it in the second leg, scoring the third in an incredible 3-0 win for the Giallorossi. We must point out, however, that Roma progressed on the away goals rule, which of course is no longer a factor in European knockout football. Were this comeback to happen today, Roma would still have to do the business in extra-time or penalties.

About 13 months later, Barcelona endured another harrowing collapse. A 3-0 home win over Liverpool courtesy of a Messi brace and Luis Suárez netting against his former club seemingly ensured the Blaugrana had one foot in the Champions League final.

However, on a historic night at a rocking Anfield in the second leg, Liverpool turned things around with a remarkable 4-0 victory, the decisive goal coming via a now-iconic quickly taken corner from Trent Alexander-Arnold to Divock Origi to stun the Catalans once more.

While we haven’t seen a team recover from a three- or four-goal deficit to progress from a Champions League tie since, it might surprise some to learn these four examples come from a possible 51 – that means 7.8% of UCL ties that have seen a team win the first leg by three or more goals have ended up being won by the other side.

It’s also worth remembering that we did nearly see such a comeback in this season’s play-off round. Juventus lost 5-2 at Galatasaray in the first leg and were then 3-0 up at the end of the regulation 90 minutes in the second to force extra-time. Had they not had Lloyd Kelly sent off, Juve may well have done enough to prevent their visitors scoring twice in extra-time to seal progress.

There is precedent, then. There are omens and there is (a sliver) of hope.

But, realistically, what chances do Tottenham, City, Chelsea and Sporting (and Atalanta) have of reaching the quarter-finals?

As noted before, while their challenges are rather similar in terms of deficit (excluding Atalanta), each situation has its own nuances. The Opta supercomputer can help us make sense of that.

For instance, Manchester City are deemed the likeliest to overcome their first-leg defeat. They still reached the quarter-finals in 13.4% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.

Sporting are next, stunning Bodø/Glimt to reach the last eight in 13.1% of the latest sims; then we have Chelsea (5.9%) and Tottenham (4.1%). And, just to sate any curiosity, Atalanta are given a 0.1% chance of knocking out Bayern Munich.

For Tottenham, Chelsea, City and Sporting, the task is daunting; for Atalanta, it’s practically hopeless. But ties that live longest in the memory and have the greatest legacies tend to begin in similarly futile circumstances.

The second legs may well confirm the seemingly inevitable, or they could provide us with another miracle to file alongside those at the Riazor, Stadio Olimpico, Anfield and Camp Nou.

In the Champions League, you just never know.

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The post Champions League Miracles: Do Man City, Chelsea, Sporting, Tottenham or Atalanta Have Any Hope Left? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Brandon Aubrey made one of the great plays of the 2025 NFL season last September.

In Week 2, the Dallas Cowboys trailed by three points when its offense moved the ball to the New York Giants 46-yard line with five seconds remaining. One play earlier, coach Brian Schottenheimer was so confident in Aubrey – the team’s place-kicker – that the Cowboys ran the ball with nine seconds left, gaining 3 yards as if they were just trying to set up Aubrey for a chip shot.

It may as well have been that when Aubrey blasted a 64-yard field goal through the uprights to send the game to overtime. The 46-yarder he later hit to win it as time expired in OT must have felt like child’s play as the Cowboys prevailed 40-37.

As recently as 2023, Aubrey was kicking for the Birmingham Stallions in the UFL, a spring league. While he’s gone on to NFL stardom, it would be fun to watch him kick in the UFL today because the league is unveiling a new rule in its 2026 season, which begins on March 27, that increases a field goal made of 60 yards or longer from the standard three points to four.

The UFL is pairing it with a rule that prevents an offense from punting once it crosses midfield into an opponent’s side except in the final two minutes of either half.

The idea was clear enough: Create drama by making teams go for fourth downs or, failing that, attempt titanic field goals. UFL head of officiating Dean Blandino has argued “60-yard field goals are the new 50-yard field goals.”

Although such opinion is reasonable, Blandino may be pushing it a bit. The 2025 NFL season brought a record 12 makes and 22 attempts from 60-plus yards, including the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Cam Little kicking a 68-yarder for the NFL all-time high. In no year this century has the NFL had fewer than 68 attempts from 50+ (the low water mark was in 2000). But 60-yard tries have roughly quadrupled over the past decade, and it feels inevitable the number will keep going up unless the league intervenes to make a kicker’s job harder.

But the UFL presents an alternative question to Roger Goodell and the NFL competition committee: What if the NFL not only avoided making kickers’ jobs harder but rewarded them even more for their mega-legs?

Notably, the NFL has already adopted a kicking rule from spring league football. The dynamic kickoff rule, which places coverage players and blockers close together to decrease high-speed collision and its risk of injury, originated in the XFL and continued into the UFL, with the NFL experimenting with it in 2024 and adopting for the 2025 season.

Elite Kickers Fuel Rise in 60-Yard FGs

The long-range kicking scenario has changed dramatically in recent years. In five different NFL seasons from 1989 to 2002, there wasn’t even a 60+ yard field goal attempt. But there’s been at least one in every season since 2003, and a kicker has made one in each of the past 11 seasons since 2015. The five-year rolling average of 60+ yard attempts did not crack 3.0 until 2017 or 6.0 until 2023. But it stands at 13.6 entering the 2026 season after the league’s kickers went nuts in 2025.

Actually, “the league’s kickers” is a bit of a misnomer. The league is 38 for 98 from 60+ in the past 10 seasons, but a small handful of kickers have done most of that work on their own.

Aubrey leads with six makes followed by Brett Maher with four. Only eight other kickers in league history have even made at least two. Isn’t that the best argument for the NFL dabbling in four-point field goals?

At its best, football should encourage its most special players to make special plays, and it should punish them when they try and fail.

A four-point 60-yard field goal scratches both of these itches: The kicking team either gets a point total that’s 33% higher than a typical field goal or it surrenders the ball at midfield or worse.

All of which is to say: It’s cool the UFL is trying to modernize the game, but the league that would be most fascinating to see four-point field goals is the NFL, which has the world’s best kickers.

In the UFL, using four-point field goals is a fun experiment at best, a gimmick at worst. In the NFL, it would be a legitimate competitive weapon.

Effects of Four-Point Field Goals

Four-point field goals would shift the NFL’s competitive math in a few ways:

1. You’d see more attempts that kickers might actually miss. Exactly how many? We don’t know.

But consider how boring most NFL field goals have gotten as the league has improved across the board. Last season, NFL kickers made 95.1% (484 of 509) of their kicks from inside 40 yards as well as 84.3% (264 of 313) from 40 to 49 yards. There’s still a bit of drama here – hello, Tyler Loop and his 44-yard attempt that misfired on the final play of the regular season, costing the Baltimore Ravens a playoff spot – but it’s less than ever before. NFL kickers “only” clicked at 54.5% from 60+ last year, though.

If you want to watch kicks that are truly something close to a coin flip, the options are to make kicking harder – say, manipulate the footballs or tighten the uprights – or make kicking harder field goals more valuable. The latter introduces field position risk, which makes it more fun.

2. Late-game decision trees would be thrown into chaos. Consider the Aubrey bomb that forced overtime against the Giants last season. If the teams had known such a kick would be worth four points, not three, how would the end of the game have played out?

For one thing, when the Giants went ahead with 25 seconds left on a Malik Nabers touchdown catch, would they have considered going for a two-point conversion (another fun tossup play) so that Aubrey couldn’t beat them with the four points of a 60-yarder? Imagine how much more fun that would’ve been than Graham Gano kicking an extra point.

And what about the Cowboys? Consider their situation with nine seconds left at the Giants 49. A gain of more than 7 yards would have taken Aubrey’s attempt out of four-point range and down to 59 yards and three points. Would that have encouraged the Giants defense to defend a more shallow area of the field, assuming Dallas wouldn’t attempt another deep pass to George Pickens? If so, would quarterback Dak Prescott have done just that? The theory of the game would shift.

In rare cases, those shifts would be downright funky. Would a team facing fourth down at the opponent’s 39 back up 3 yards to turn a 57-yard field goal attempt into a 60-yarder? Perhaps so.

But what a risk that would be for a coach to take – the media would not be kind to him if his kicker then narrowly missed the four-point try. 

3. There would be less plus-field punting and thus a lot fewer offensive drives starting inside the 10.

Last year, NFL teams punted 249 times from between an opponent’s 42 and midfield (the range of a 60- to 68-yard field goal). About 37% of those punts resulted in the opposing offense taking over inside its 10.

How many teams would have gone for a field goal instead if they had a kicker they believed in and could steal a fourth point by making it? How many attempts would they miss, creating a short field for the opponent? If you enjoy both lots of points and risk/reward calculations, four-point field goals from 60+ yards encourage both.

Change is Good? It Seems So

Most NFL teams, sadly, lack a Brandon Aubrey. But you can imagine how this system would inject a fun bit of chaos into the game for all sorts of teams.

Consider a mostly forgettable 2019 Week 4 game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High, where the higher altitude makes it perhaps the NFL’s most favorable environment for long field goals. Trailing by three with 10 minutes left and facing a 4th-and-8 at Jacksonville’s 42, the Broncos opted to punt rather than bring out kicker Brandon McManus for a 60-yard try. In a four-point world, such an attempt would’ve been for the Broncos to take the lead.

Instead, coach Vic Fangio elected for a punt. The Jaguars then took the ball on a long field goal drive to bump their lead to six. Denver answered with a thrilling, Joe Flacco-led touchdown drive to go up by a point with 1:32 left, before the defense again let the Broncos down. Josh Lambo won it for Jacksonville on a 33-yard kick as time expired.

Imagine now, if a 60-yard field goal was worth four points. McManus, who made a 61-yarder at the end of the 2021 season, may well have gotten a shot to put Denver ahead 21-20. Instead, the Broncos punted and wound up losing by two points.

That’s not to say a four-point try would’ve resulted in a better conclusion than the thrilling one that game produced anyway. But it is to ask a reasonable question: Would NFL coaches take more leaps of faith with their kickers if there were a better reward on the table?

The UFL already suggests the answer is yes.

Jake Coyne of Stats Perform’s U.S. Data Insights contributed research to this story. For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post What If the NFL Added Another Spring League Kicking Rule: Four-Point Field Goals appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Men’s Six Nations 2026: The Best Opta Facts

• A record 111 tries were scored in the 2026 men’s Six Nations, just the second time 100+ tries have been scored after 108 were scored in 2025.
• Louis Bielle-Biarrey scored in every game for the second Championship in a row, his 10-game scoring streak is the longest of any player in the competition’s history.
• Against England, Bielle-Biarrey became the second player to score four tries in a men’s Six Nations match (also Chris Ashton vs Italy, 2011); he finished this year’s Championship with nine tries, the most of anyone in a single edition, and has become France’s top try scorer in the Six Nations era (18).

• Italy beat England for the first time ever in the competition, ending the only remaining 100% record any side had over another.
• Wales’ final-day victory over Italy ended their 1,099-day wait for a win in the men’s Six Nations, bringing to an end a 15-game losing streak.
• Thomas Ramos ended the Championship as top points scorer (74). He is the first player to do so in four consecutive editions (O’Gara 2005-07).
• England lost four matches for the first time since Italy joined the Championship in 2000, and just the third time overall (also 1972 and 1976).
• Against Scotland, France became the first side in the Six Nations to score 40+ points and lose. The very next week England became the second side to (vs France).
• France have neither scored (30, also 2025) nor conceded (19) more tries in a single edition of the men’s Six Nations than they did this year; they’re the first team to score 4+ tries in every match in a Six Nations campaign.
• A total of 29 tries were scored in Round 5, the most on a single day in the Championship’s history, overtaking 2015’s Super Saturday (27).
• Ireland completed 227 tackles against Scotland, their most ever in a men’s Six Nations match. Overall they made 891 tackles in the Championship, more than any other side, and their highest tally in a single edition.
• Scotland’s George Turner found a teammate from all 33 of his lineout throws in this year’s men’s Six Nations, the most throws of any player to maintain a 100% success rate in a single edition of the Championship.
• Ireland have now won the Triple Crown nine times in the Six Nations era; no other team has won it on more than five occasions since 2000 (England & Wales).
• Wales’s Alex Mann completed 32 tackles versus Ireland, the most by any player in a men’s Six Nations fixture (since 2000).
• Huw Jones became Scotland’s top try scorer in the men’s Six Nations (18); only three players from any nation have more than him (O’Driscoll, North, S Williams).

Six Nations 2026: Team Report Cards

1st – France

Back-to-back titles for the first time in almost 20 years (2006-07), Les Bleus once again offered scintillating prowess in attack. Matthieu Jalibert looks set to hold on the No. 10 jersey for the long haul and with talent all around him, stopping this juggernaut is going to be tricky.

Some defensive frailties were exposed by Scotland to deny them a Grand Slam, and they followed that with another wobble against England. But with Louis Bielle-Biarrey scoring tries for fun and Thomas Ramos ever reliable with the boot, they could just about afford it.

Key statistic: France made 80 offloads in the tournament, 38 more than any other side, keeping their attack flowing. This allowed them to make a Championship-high 58 line breaks, 22 more than anyone else.

2nd – Ireland

After a lacklustre start Ireland rallied and were just seconds away from securing an unlikely title, before Thomas Ramos stepped up in Paris to consign England to a heart-breaking loss, and potentially an even more cruel snubbing of Ireland’s hopes.

Impressive wins against England and Scotland were the gloss on their Championship. However, they offered little fight against France and struggled to overcome Wales and Italy with much confidence.

There were some promising player performances from their rows, both second and back, as well as Stuart McCloskey in the midfield and Robert Baloucoune and Jamie Osborne out the back.

Key statistic: Ireland scored some form of points from 58% of their 22 entries and stopped their opponents from scoring on 67% of their entries – both tournament-highs.

3rd- Scotland

Another campaign of ups and downs. Victory over France at Murrayfield was potentially the best performance of any side in the Championship and arguably the best Scottish performance and result for a very long time.

Defeat to Italy in Round 1 had put them on the back foot, but Gregor Townsend’s side regrouped and came into Super Saturday with a shot at glory. They couldn’t quite keep pace with Ireland in the end and despite a strong showing it was another third-place finish. They’ve still never finished in the top two in the Six Nations. There’s always next year…

Key statistic: Scotland have now lost 9/9 men’s Six Nations matches against Ireland in Gregor Townsend’s reign as head coach; he did however pick up a sixth win against England in the competition, from nine attempts.

4th – Italy

Victory in Cardiff in Round 5 would have meant a best-ever Championship for Italy, recording three wins for the first time. It wasn’t to be, though, with Wales getting away from them in the first half, and rendering their flourish in the last quarter a mere consolation.

A first-ever win against England will live long in the memory of all Italian rugby fans (and England fans for that matter). An impressive win against Scotland in Round 1 shouldn’t be forgotten either.

Having now beaten all five of their opponents in the Six Nations, Italy have proved they are a menace and threat to everyone. Hopes and expectations next season will be even higher.

Key statistic: Italy conceded just 117 points in the 2026 Six Nations. Only in 2013 (111) have they conceded fewer. They struggled in attack, though, their points-per-22-entry of just 1.49 far below the other sides.

5th – England

Confident against Wales, electric against France but woeful in between. England’s campaign was a real rollercoaster of emotions. Their Round 1 victory in Cardiff meant they’d won 12 on the trot in all competitions and hopes of a Grand Slam showdown with France in Round 5 were realistic.

Those hopes were brutally extinguished by humbling losses to Scotland, Ireland and, most agonisingly, Italy. A strong showing against France in Paris did materialise but it still wasn’t enough for a win they should have banked were it not for some ill-discipline and tangled defensive shapes.

This is the third time England have finished fifth in the men’s Six Nations (2018, 2021), but is the first time they’ve only picked up one victory. The Championship is as competitive as ever but that will provide scant solace to England fans.

Key statistic: England conceded a Championship-high 55 penalties and were shown nine cards (eight yellow, one red). Only Italy in 2002 (nine yellows) have been shown as many cards in an edition of the men’s Six Nations.

6th – Wales

A third straight Wooden Spoon would suggest another disappointing campaign for Wales, and it was, but it could have been an awful lot worse. Expectations and positivity in Welsh rugby had hardly been lower coming into this Championship, but some strong performances and victory over Italy on Super Saturday offer some genuine hope.

England and France blew them away but they were close to wins against both Ireland and Scotland, who snatched victory from their hands with a late George Turner try.

Key statistic: Wales managed the best goalkicking rate of any side in the 2026 men’s Six Nations, slotting 93% of their kicks, including 4/4 penalties and 10/11 conversions. They were also the only side to kick a drop-goal.

Opta’s 2026 Six Nations Team of the Championship

Our Opta Index gives scores for each player performance throughout the 2026 Six Nations, rewarding positive contributions and punishing mistakes and errors.

Unsurprisingly the back-line is dominated with the baby blue shirts of French players – only Ireland’s Stuart McCloskey and England’s Tommy Freeman breach those ranks.

In the pack it is a different picture, with not a single Frenchman in sight. Wales’ battling campaign is rewarded with three inclusions up front, however Italy are the one side to miss out with any representations.

It is worth noting that Tommaso Menoncello was the eighth-best-ranked player overall, only missing out due to a formidable campaign from Ulster’s McCloskey. Lorenzo Cannone had another stellar Championship, only ranking narrowly behind Ireland captain Caelan Doris in the pecking order.

The overall player of the Championship is unsurprisingly the generational talent of Louis Bielle-Biarrey. The Bordeaux wing will no doubt keep breaking records for years to come and feature in plenty more of our best XVs.

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The post The Greatest Six Nations Ever? The 2026 Men’s Championship Review appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Barcelona vs Newcastle Key Stats

• Barcelona are expected to progress to the last eight of the UEFA Champions League, winning against Newcastle in 56.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
• Barcelona have won both of their previous home games against Newcastle United in the competition.
• Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six Champions League games (W3 D3), their longest-ever run without defeat in the competition.

This Champions League last-16 tie between Barcelona and Newcastle United is finely poised heading into the second leg, thanks to Hansi Flick’s side snatching a last-gasp draw at St. James’ Park last week.

Barcelona were far from their best on their return to Tyneside – having beaten Newcastle 2-1 away in the group stage – and had Lamine Yamal to thank as he scored a penalty with the last kick of the game to level things up ahead of the second leg.

Harvey Barnes had given Newcastle the lead late on after the hosts had been the better side for large parts, but a famous victory was just beyond Eddie Howe’s men.

And history would suggest that the 96th-minute spot-kick from Yamal could come back to haunt Newcastle.

When drawing the first leg away from home, Barcelona have progressed from each of their last 10 Champions League knockout-stage ties.

Juventus were the last to eliminate the Blaugrana in such circumstances in the 2002-03 quarter-finals; after a 1-1 away draw in the first leg, Barça lost the second 2-1 at home.

Back at Camp Nou, Barcelona are a daunting prospect, and they’ve scored in each of their last 16 home games in the Champions League, netting 50 goals in that time (3.1 per game). They’ve won their last three at home by an aggregate score of 12-3.

Flick will be determined to see an improvement, no matter what, after watching his side only manage two shots on target in the first leg. They did edge the expected goals (xG) battle (1.42 to 1.3), but their total was largely inflated by Yamal’s penalty (0.79 xG).

Despite having a relatively quiet game in Newcastle, Yamal will surely be key to Barcelona’s plans if they are to get the job done. The youngster has 12 goal involvements in his last 11 home matches in the Champions League (six goals, six assists), but this will be his first time stepping out onto the Camp Nou turf in UEFA’s flagship competition.

Raphinha will also be keen to have a more telling impact this time around after managing just one off-target attempt in the reverse fixture. The Brazilian did score a hat-trick in Sunday’s 5-2 home win over Sevilla in La Liga, though, albeit that included two penalties.

Raphinha has had a hand in 18 goals in 15 Champions League home games for Barcelona (nine goals, nine assists). Of players with 10+ home appearances for the club in the competition, only Lionel Messi (1.45) has a higher goal involvement per-90 average than the former Leeds winger (1.35).

But Newcastle have momentum heading into this game as they are unbeaten in their last six European games (W3 D3) and are looking to win consecutive away matches in the competition for the first time following their 6-1 victory over Qarabag in the play-offs. They also beat Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge on Saturday in the Premier League.

The draw between these two last Tuesday did mark the 12th time an English side had failed to beat Barcelona in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, with only three of the previous 11 progressing to the next round – Chelsea in 2004-05 (last 16), Manchester United in 2007-08 (semi-final) and Liverpool in 2018-19 (semi-final).

Newcastle attempted 16 shots last week, and though they only hit the target with four of those, they also struck the woodwork. It was the 25th time they have done so in all competitions this term.

Barnes thought he had scored what would’ve been a deserved winner in the 86th minute, and Howe will be looking to him for a spark once more. Only Kylian Mbappé (14), Anthony Gordon (12) and Julián Alvarez (10) have been directly involved in more Champions League goals this season than Barnes (9 – 6 goals, 3 assists).

But it was Lewis Hall who Barcelona struggled to keep quiet. No player on either side created more chances (five), made more defensive line-breaking passes (three) or won possession more times (seven) than him in the first leg.

As for team news, the hosts will be without Jules Koundé, Frenkie de Jong, Alejandro Balde and Andreas Christensen through injury.

Newcastle have been suffering from a sickness bug that saw Gordon start last week’s game on the bench, though he returned to the starting lineup to score the winner at Chelsea at the weekend. Sandro Tonali missed the game but is expected to be back on Wednesday. However, Bruno Guimarães, Fabian Schär and Lewis Miley will all be absent with injuries.

Barcelona vs Newcastle Head-to-Head

Barcelona have won both of their previous home games against Newcastle in the Champions League, beating them 1-0 in November 1997 and 3-1 in December 2002.

Newcastle, meanwhile, have lost five of their six away games against Spanish sides in all competitions, with this their first since a 2-1 loss at Deportivo La Coruña in the 2005 UEFA Intertoto Cup.

The only exception in this run was a 3-0 win at Mallorca in the 2003-04 UEFA Cup.

Newcastle have faced Barcelona six times before in Europe, but their only victory came in the first clash, 3-2 at home in the group stage in September 1997. Barça won each of the next four before the draw in the first leg.

Barcelona vs Newcastle Prediction

Barcelona are strong favourites to come out on top back on home soil, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 56.8% chance of victory that would send them through to the quarter-finals.

Newcastle have a 21.9% chance of coming out on top, while the chance of another draw, which would send the tie to extra time, sits at 21.3%.

Barça are favourites overall to go through in the tie, doing so in 67.1% of simulations.

Barcelona vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups

Barcelona: Joan García, João Cancelo, Pau Cubarsí, Ronald Araujo, Gerard Martín, Pedri, Marc Bernal, Fermin López, Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski.

Head coach: Hansi Flick

Newcastle: Aaron Ramsdale, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Joelinton, Joe Willock, Jacob Ramsey, Anthony Elanga, Harvey Barnes, Will Osula.

Head coach: Eddie Howe

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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The post Barcelona vs Newcastle Prediction: Will Flick or Howe Triumph at Camp Nou? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

The South Sydney Rabbitohs flyer stands alone at the top with a tally of 213 career tries – his career spanning more than a decade and encompassing the highs and lows of a storied rugby league career.

Records are made to be broken. At least, that’s how the adage goes. Ken Irvine’s NRL Premiership record of 212 tries scored across the 1950s, 60s, and 70s long stood as an idyllic exception to that rule; a nod to the game’s storied past.

Irvine had held the record since overtaking Harold Horder in 1969, and Horder himself had held it for 45 years prior. Alex Johnston’s ascent, then, represented only the second change in record-holder in a century of the game.

Some eager rugby league fans dared to entertain the possibility of a new leader when Billy Slater clawed his way up to 190 career tries by 2018, but not even the Storm and Queensland legend could get within reach of Irvine’s fabled 212.

Enter Johnston.

A more permanent shift to the left side of the field in 2020 would set the perfect platform for the already-established South Sydney Rabbitohs flyer to make a sprint for the record.

He had scored 83 tries from 122 appearances for South Sydney by the end of the 2019 campaign. Those were already impressive numbers, but it’s what followed in the next four years that finally made the game’s historians believe Irvine’s record was in danger.

The 2020 season saw Johnston score 23 tries in 22 games, followed by 30 tries from 22 games in 2021, another 30 tries from 25 games in 2022, and a slower but still incredible 21 tries from 23 games in 2023.

That is 104 tries in 92 games, one of the most prolific four-year stretches any player has produced in the competition’s history. In doing so, Johnston became the first player to score 30 tries in multiple seasons and just the third player ever to do so even once after Dave Brown (38 in 1935) and Ray Preston (34 in 1954).

Back-to-back hamstring and Achilles injuries in 2024 threatened to leave Johnston agonisingly short of Irvine’s incredible record but a rejuvenated 2025 season saw him score multiple tries in a game for fun including a four-try haul against the Melbourne Storm in Round 15.

From that point on it finally felt as though it were a matter of when, not if, Johnston would break the record for most tries in NRL Premiership history.

And now he has; crossing against old rivals the Sydney Roosters in Round 2 of the 2026 campaign to eclipse Irvine and reach 213 career tries.

The numbers behind the story highlight what an incredible career Johnston has had in the NRL.

He has scored three or more tries in a game on 16 occasions, including two five-try hauls, and 11 different opponents have been on the receiving end of a hat-trick since his debut in 2013.

Indeed, he’s scored at least 10 tries against 12 of the 16 teams he’s faced in the competition and has a strike rate of more than one try per game against seven different teams.

His happiest hunting ground has been against the Wests Tigers, against whom he has scored 20 tries in 18 games, while the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (four tries in 12 games) and Brisbane Broncos (eight tries in 20 games) have remained a challenge for Johnston and the Rabbitohs to crack.

From Adam Doueihi to Tallis Duncan, 32 different players have assisted Johnston on his way to the try line in the NRL, while he’s scored 26 unassisted tries himself. He’s had several foils through the years, but it’s been his combinations with Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell that have been the most fruitful for the South Sydney Rabbitohs.

Walker has laid on 47 try assists for Johnston, comfortably the most of any player, while Mitchell (32) is the only other player to have assisted more tries for him than the Rabbitohs flier has managed without any assistance.

Together, the trio have formed one of the most potent left-side attacking threats in the modern game, their antics carrying South Sydney deep into the finals on several occasions, including a 12-14 defeat to Penrith in the 2021 Grand Final.

The Papua New Guinea international has taken his time to warm up into matches across his career, scoring only 19 of his 213 career tries in the first 20 minutes of games, which accounts for just 9% of his total.

While the split of his tries between halves has been consistent, with 104 in first halves and 109 scored in second, the time when Johnston shines is between the 46th and 50th minutes, scoring 21 tries during that time across his career.

The end of the Johnston story is still to be written; with no doubt more tries to come for the South Sydney Rabbitohs’ record-breaking outside back.

The record books will fondly remember Johnston’s feats, and for now we can all bask in the rugby league history unfolding before us.

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The post 213 Not Out: The Numbers Behind Alex Johnston’s NRL Try-Scoring Record appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Who Has the Most Premier League Assists in a Single Season?

• 20 – Kevin De Bruyne in 2019-20
• 20 – Thierry Henry in 2002-03
• 19 – Mesut Özil in 2015-16
• 18 – Mohamed Salah in 2024-25
• 18 – Frank Lampard in 2004-05
• 18 – Kevin De Bruyne in 2016-17
• 18 – Cesc Fàbregas in 2014-15
• 17 – Cesc Fàbregas in 2007-08
• 16 – Eric Cantona in 1992-93
• 16 – Kevin De Bruyne in 2017-18
• 16 – Kevin De Bruyne in 2022-23
• 16 – Bruno Fernandes in 2025-26 (ongoing)

Goalscorers get so much of the glory, but in recent years it feels as though those who assist them have been getting more and more appreciation.

Yes, sometimes an assist can be as simple as rolling the ball two yards to someone on the halfway line who beats five men and bends one in from distance, but it’s often a well-placed pass that provides a teammate with a golden opportunity to find the net.

We’ve already listed those who have racked up the most assists overall in Premier League history, but we also wanted to look at players who have done so the most in a single campaign.

Thierry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne share the record with 20 assists, but that looked under threat in 2024-25. With six games remaining, Mohamed Salah had tallied 18 assists for Liverpool, but the Egyptian failed to add anymore as he ultimately fell short of De Bruyne and Henry.

Now, as we head into the latter stages of 2025-26, Bruno Fernandes (16 assists as of 15 March 2026) is threatening to contend with the record…

20 – Kevin De Bruyne (2019-20)

In 2019-20, Kevin De Bruyne finally ended a 17-year wait for someone to equal Thierry Henry’s phenomenal tally of 20 Premier League assists in 2002-03.

De Bruyne reached his total from 35 games, two fewer than Henry, and recorded at least seven more assists than any other player in the division that season, ahead of Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (13) in second.

The former Manchester City maestro was in tremendous form that season, despite the fact Pep Guardiola’s men fell well short in the Premier League title race, finishing 18 points behind champions Liverpool.

De Bruyne boasts four of the 11 best Premier League campaigns for assists, also managing 18 in 2016-17, and 16 in both the 2017-18 and 2022-23 seasons. He sits in second place in the competition’s all-time assist list, behind only Ryan Giggs.

20 – Thierry Henry (2002-03)

While De Bruyne’s overall output in 2019-20 was excellent, with 13 goals to add to his 20 assists, it wasn’t as impressive as Henry’s 2002-03 campaign, when the French forward added 24 goals to his 20 assists.

His 44 goal involvements for Arsenal that season is the joint most ever by a player in a 38-game Premier League campaign.

Henry’s total included a hat-trick of assists in Arsenal’s 4-0 win over Sunderland at the Stadium of Light in May 2003, while he recorded two assists in four other matches.

19 – Mesut Özil (2015-16)

Another Arsenal player, Mesut Özil, led the way for assists in 2015-16, with 19 in 35 top-flight appearances.

Sixteen of these came in his first 18 games of that season, with the German international midfielder set to absolutely smash Henry’s previous record of 20. But the final 17 appearances that campaign only yielded three more assists, including one on the final day in a 4-0 win over Aston Villa.

Özil’s 2015-16 tally was two more than he ever managed in a season at La Liga club Real Madrid, with his 17 passes leading to goals in 2010-11 and 2011-12 the best he managed in Spain.

18 – Mohamed Salah (2024-25)

Mohamed Salah moved to 18 assists for Liverpool in the 2024-25 Premier League season with his low cross for Luis Díaz’s opener against West Ham United on 13 April 2025. However, he failed to add any more in the Reds’ final six games of the campaign and ended two short of the seasonal record in the competition.

The Egyptian, who has signed a new contract at the club to continue his Premier League career past 2024-25, enjoyed his best ever season for assists in the competition. His previous highest tally in a campaign came in 2021-22 when he set up 13 for his teammates.

18 – Cesc Fàbregas (2014-15)

While at Arsenal in 2007-08, Cesc Fàbregas recorded an impressive 17 assists. It will have been difficult for Gunners fans to see their former midfielder end up at Chelsea via Barcelona after that, but even more so when he thrived at Stamford Bridge.

In the 2014-15 season, Fàbregas – who ranks third for all-time assists in the Premier League with 111 – went one better than that previous best campaign at Arsenal and notched 18 assists for the Blues, and from just 34 league games too.

Chelsea cruised to the title that season, and the Spain international eased to the top of the charts for most assists, finishing seven ahead of the player with the next most, another Spanish Arsenal midfielder in Santi Cazorla (11).

18 – Kevin De Bruyne (2016-17)

As with the 2019-20 season, the De Bruyne thrived despite the team around him not doing so well.

In Guardiola’s first campaign in England, Man City didn’t come close to challenging for the title, won by De Bruyne’s former club Chelsea by a distance, but the player himself still managed 18 assists in total for his teammates in 36 appearances.

That was three more than Tottenham’s Christian Eriksen, but as we’ve already seen, De Bruyne would go two better three seasons later.

18 – Frank Lampard (2004-05)

Where there are Premier League records, Frank Lampard’s name is not usually far away.

The former West Ham, Chelsea and Man City midfielder is fifth in the all-time list for Premier League assists, and the 2004-05 campaign was his most productive.

Chelsea eased to the title under José Mourinho in his first season at Stamford Bridge, and Lampard was a big part of that, notching 13 goals to go with his 18 assists.

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What a great time of the year: Baseball’s on its annual collision course with opening day and the NCAA Basketball Tournament is waiting to show sports fans everywhere its cupboard of surprises.

It’s OK if you’ve missed most of the college hoops season (it’s been a busy year), but we’re here to help you fill out your annual March Madness bracket.

Opta Analyst’s TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) rankings have a pretty solid track record of showing which teams are underseeded and which teams are overseeded, which is helpful info when trying to choose your upsets.

Here’s our region-by-region breakdown of this year’s field, with TRACR insights and helpful suggestions of which teams might help you win this new approach to filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket.

East Region

Upset Special: No. 7 UCLA over No. 2 UConn. Sure, this isn’t a first-round upset, but a 2-seed failing to make it out of the opening weekend is absolutely an upset. Those UCLA Bruins are 26th overall in the TRACR ratings and played great basketball down the stretch of the regular season, beating then-nationally ranked top-10 teams Nebraska and Michigan State before injuries led to a Big Ten Tournament downfall. But with Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent expected back at full strength, this is a nightmarish matchup for coach Dan Hurley’s UConn squad that got smoked by St. John’s in the Big East Tournament title game.

Dark Horse: Take your pick, the region is stacked with them. The aforementioned UCLA team could be a handful, the No. 4 seed (Kansas) has the potential No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft (Darryn Peterson), the No. 5 seed (St. John’s) just won the Big East Tournament, the No. 9 seed (TCU) has wins over Florida and Iowa State and almost knocked off Michigan early in the season. Top 10 TRACR ratings always catch our eye, so we’ll note St. John’s is No. 8 in the defensive ratings this season.

Favorite Potential Matchup: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Kansas, Sweet 16. Cam Boozer vs. Darryn Peterson, on that stage? Cancel every single appointment for a six-hour window of time – to prepare and plan for potential overtimes. Peterson has missed his fair share of big regular-season games, as everyone knows, but show up big in this one and none of that matters.

The Pick: No. 1 Duke. Yeah, the region is loaded with talent and high-upside/high-risk teams. But take a look at the TRACR standings and you’ll find the Blue Devils in the No. 3 spot in offense and the No. 1 spot in defense. That’s the consistent excellence that wins in March (and early April).

South Region

Upset Special: No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina. The Heels have been a bit erratic with star freshman Caleb Wilson sidelined by injury, and VCU has been incredible down the stretch, with 16 wins in their last 17 games plus the Atlantic 10 Tournament title.

Dark Horse: Defense wins championships, so it’s hard to confidently pick No. 3 seed Illinois to make a long run, but any team that can catch fire from the outside like those guys is a terrifying team to play in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini – No. 2 in offensive TRACR – feature five shooters with at least 43 made 3-point attempts, and three more with at least 18.

Favorite Potential Matchup: No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 1 Florida, Sweet 16. The Commodores bounced the Gators from the SEC Tournament with extreme prejudice, winning by 17 points. Would be fun to see that rematch (though maybe not so much for UF fans).

The Pick: No. 2 Houston. The Cougars are just so very good – sixth in overall TRACR – and they’re playing the second weekend in Houston? Yes, please.

West Region

Upset Special: No. 12 High Point vs. No. 5 Wisconsin. Gotta pick at least one 12-over-5, right? High Point is 30-4, has lost only once since mid-December and is averaging 90.0 points per game. Yup, nine-zero. The Panthers don’t necessarily have the ingredients for a long run, but they can score with anyone in the country.

Dark Horse: We’ll get to Arkansas in a moment, but for now, let’s go with No. 6 seed BYU. Yeah, the Cougars have underperformed in the W/L column but even now it’s hard to shake the memories of the 2003 NCAA Tournament, when we saw what a high-impact NBA prospect (Carmelo Anthony, for Syracuse) can do to give March its madness. A.J. Dybantsa is averaging 25.3 points per game, and even though the Cougars have lost a lot of matchups with top teams, they’ve been right in the game for most of them. Lessons learned, tweaks made?

Favorite Potential Matchup: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas, Sweet 16. This absolutely could be one of the best games of the entire bracket. Arkansas has the talent – led, of course, by point guard/superstar Darius Acuff Jr. – to line up with just about everybody, and coach John Calipari has his team playing its best basketball heading down the stretch. And Arizona is legit.

The Pick: No. 1 Arizona. Like I said, legit.

Midwest Region

Upset Special: No. 11 Miami (Ohio) over No. 6 Tennessee. At some point, winning matters, right? The RedHawks got that pesky loss out of the way in the MAC Tournament, and they got to spend plenty of time thinking about those 31 wins they had to start the season. Yes, they have to get past a good SMU team in the First Four matchup, but they’ll be highly motivated to prove they are more than a decent team that played a mediocre schedule with a win over Tennessee.

Dark Horse: Texas Tech. It’s not often you have a No. 5 seed with wins over two 1-seeds (Duke and Arizona) and two 2-seeds (Houston and Iowa State). Obviously, the absence of star JT Toppin – with his torn ACL – is a reason the Red Raiders have lost three straight games to drop to its 5-seed, but the NCAA Tournament is a chance for Christian Anderson to show his star on the biggest stage.

Favorite Potential Matchup: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 2 Iowa State, Elite 8. Sometimes, folks, chalk is fun. Both the Wolverines and Cyclones are top 13 in both offensive and defensive ratings, and this would be all kinds of fun to watch.

The Pick: No. 1 Michigan. Confident in this pick? Not really. The Wolverines looked destined to win it all at times this season, but the offense struggled at times down the stretch and they weren’t exactly burying teams in the final few weeks. Rediscover that killer instinct, though, and they should get to the Final Four.

Ryan Fagan’s Final Four

Most years, the analytics of this Duke team would make the Blue Devils the easy pick to win the title. Also, most years, the analytics of this Michigan team would make the Wolverines the easy pick to win the title. Oh, and most years, the analytics of this Arizona team would make the Wildcats the easy pick to win the title.

And you’re starting to see the dilemma. These three are just powerhouse clubs, but somebody has to lose and somebody has to come out on top.

The pick here is for Arizona to win its second national title. The first one was in 1997, back when the Wildcats were part of the Pac-10.

National Semifinals

No. 1 Arizona over No. 1 Michigan
No. 1 Duke over No. 2 Houston

Championship Game

No. 1 Arizona over No. 1 Duke

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While they’re supposed to be celebrating a conference championship, the players and fans – not so much the coaches – instead raise an index finger and exalt, “We’re going to The Dance!”

Blue blood, mid-major or Cinderella, March Madness tends to mean everything to a season. But only one team in the field of 68 wins the championship, so consistency is a big deal for programs, and some do it better than others – even building the longest streaks of consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances. (Here are other NCAA Tournament all-time records to know.)

Following are the men’s basketball programs with the most appearances in a row (the 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic and does not count against consecutive year streaks):

Consecutive NCAA Tournament Appearances  

(Head coaches listed in parentheses/*Streak does not include a vacated appearance ordered under NCAA sanctions)

28 – *Kansas, 1990-2017 (Roy Willams and Bill Self)  

Kansas has played in the last 35 NCAA tournaments since 1990, but its 2018 appearance, which ended in the Final Four, was vacated five years later due to use of a player, Silvio De Sousa, who was ruled ineligible retroactively. Williams coached the first 14 seasons of the run, including national runner-up finishes in 1991 and 2003. Self led the Jayhawks to the first of his two national championships at the end of the 2007-08 season (the other title season was 2021-22).

28 – Michigan State, 1998-2026 (Tom Izzo)

Magic Johnson is often the first person who comes to mind with Michigan State men’s basketball, but maybe it should be Izzo. He’s guided the Spartans to the longest active run of March Madness appearances, highlighted by the 1999-2000 national championship team, which was led by guard Mateen Cleaves. They’ve made seven other Final Four appearances under Izzo.

27 – North Carolina, 1975-2001 (Dean Smith, Bill Guthridge and Matt Doherty) 

Smith was responsible for the first 23 seasons of this NCAA Tournament streak, winning a national championship in 1982 on freshman Michael Jordan’s game-winning jump shot against Georgetown, and later adding the 1992-93 season title. Doherty’s first Tar Heels’ team was bounced in the 2001 second round, and they didn’t qualify for the next two tournaments, which led to him being replaced by Williams. After falling short as Kansas’ head coach, Williams went on to win three NCAA titles with North Carolina.

27 – Gonzaga, 1999-2026 (Dan Monson and Mark Few)  

Monson got Gonzaga’s streak of consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances started in 1999 with an Elite Eight run, but he left afterward to become Minnesota’s coach, and his former assistant, Few, took over. Under Few, the Bulldogs have soared to elite status, including eight teams of 30 or more wins during an 11-season span through 2022-23. But Few is among the winningest coaches not to capture a national title, with Gonzaga falling in the 2017 (North Carolina) and ’21 (Baylor) championship games.

24 – Duke, 1996-2019 (Mike Krzyzewski) 

Duke’s streak doesn’t even include a key portion of Krzyzewski’s iconic career, although three of his five national championship seasons (2000-01, 2009-10 and 2014-15) and two more of his record 13 Final Four appearances are in there. The streak would have been much longer – 37, in fact – but Coach K took a medical leave of absence after 12 games in the 1994-95 season and the team slumped from a 9-3 start under him to missing the NCAA Tournament without him.

19 – Wisconsin, 1999-2017 (Four Coaches)

Shout out to the consistency of Wisconsin’s program as its streak of consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances included four different coaches: Dick Bennett (first two seasons), Brad Soderberg (one), Bo Ryan (14) and Greg Gard (two). In his final two full seasons with the Badgers, Ryan led squads that advanced to the Final Four, including a 2015 national runner-up finish to Duke and Krzyzewski. 

18 – Indiana, 1986-2003 (Bob Knight and Mike Davis) 

The Hoosiers were ousted by little-known Cleveland State in the first round of the 1986 NCAA Tournament, but their streak of appearances got a boost in March Madness the next year as guard Steve Alford helped deliver Knight’s third and final national title. The final three seasons of the streak occurred under Davis, who took Indiana to the 2002 championship game.

17 – Kentucky, 1992-2008 (Rick Pitino, Tubby Smith and Billy Gillispie) 

During the streak, Kentucky won a pair of national championships in a three-season span, first under Pitino in 1996 and two years later in Smith’s first season. Gillispie’s first season was the final one of the streak, and the Wildcats were upset by Marquette in the first round of the 2008 NCAA Tournament, before they settled for the NIT a year later in his second and final campaign with the program.  

14 – *Arizona, 1985-98 (Lute Olson) 

Arizona actually had a streak of 25 from 1985 to 2009, but its 1999 (under Olson) and 2008 (Kevin O’Neill’s only season) appearances were later deemed vacated.

• 14 – Cincinnati, 1992-2005 (Bob Huggins)
• 14 – Georgetown, 1979-92 (John Thompson)
• 14 – Texas, 1999-2012 (Rick Barnes)

Active Consecutive NCAA Tournament Appearances  

28 – Michigan State, 1998-2026

During Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament streak, the Spartans have earned at least one tournament win in 21 of their 27 appearances, and 59 overall.

27 – Gonzaga, 1999-2026

The Zags’ 37-2 national runner-up finish in the 2016-17 season is tied for the third-most wins among Division I men’s basketball teams not to win the NCAA championship (Kentucky’s 2015 Final Four team and Memphis’ 2008 national runner-up squad had 38 wins each).

11 – Purdue, 2015-26 

Coach Matt Painter’s program has been in the top 10 of regular season wins during its run and has boasted a two-time national player of the year in 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey. Fortunately for the Boilermakers, a national runner-up finish in 2024 helped lessen the NCAA Tournament appearances being known more for losses to underdogs than wins, such as defeats to North Texas (2021) and FDU (2023) in the first round, and Saint Peter’s (2022) in the Sweet 16.  

• 8 – Houston, 2018-26
• 8 – Tennessee, 2018-26
• 7 – Kansas, 2019-26

Stats Perform’s Jesse Abrahams and Greg Harvey contributed research to this story. 

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While the upsets and watching a game-winning 3-pointer swish through the net as the buzzer sounds are part of what makes March Madness so special, some college basketball games are over long before the final seconds tick off the clock.

Sometimes we get just a complete mismatch, and one team starts off hot and runs the other right out of the gym before the fans have even taken their seats. These may not carry the same level of excitement as a game that ends with a buzzer beater, but watching one team just annihilate another can be awe-inspiring as well.

A complete blowout in the tourney is also far more rare than a game that comes down to the wire. There have been 214 tournament games in which the final score has been decided by just a single point, compared to only 11 tournament games that have ended by more than 45!

We’ll take a trip down memory lane and look back at those 11 games, as we examine the rankings of the most decisive victories in the history of the NCAA Tournament.

1. 69, Loyola Chicago (111) vs. Tennessee Tech (42), March 11, 1963

Before Loyola Chicago was the darling of the 2018 NCAA Tournament, the Ramblers had only reached the Final Four in one other year, 1963. That tournament run tipped off with a blowout of Tennessee Tech. The lead reached double digits early and the game was all but in the first half, as the Ramblers outscored the Golden Eagles 61-20. That 41-point advantage still stands as the largest halftime lead in NCAA Tournament history. Loyola scored 50 more points in the second half in the biggest rout in the tourney. All five Loyola starters scored in double figures, with Ron Miller leading the way with 21 points. The Ramblers rode this momentum and won their first and only men’s basketball national championship game, defeating Cincinnati 60-58 in overtime.

2. 58, Kansas (110) vs. Prairie View (52), March 13, 1998

Led by a pair of All-Americans in Paul Pierce and Raef LaFrentz, top-seeded Kansas’ first-round matchup with a Prairie View team that entered the tournament with a 13-16 record played out exactly like you might’ve expected. The Jayhawks made their first five shots and led 20-5 by the time the Panthers made their first field goal. Pierce had 25 points in 25 minutes while LaFrentz had 20 points and 15 rebounds, as KU set program tournament records for points, as well as rebounds, as it held a 64-29 advantage on the boards. Playing it its first NCAA Tournament game, Prairie View showed some early jitters, as it missed its first nine shots and was just 4-of-25 shooting at one point. Kansas, however, was unable to build on its historic win, falling out of the tournament two days later with a surprising, 80-75 loss to eighth-seeded Rhode Island.

3. 56, UConn (103) vs. Chattanooga (47), March 19, 2009

This No. 1-vs.-16 matchup actually started out somewhat competitive, until top-seeded Connecticut ultimately imposed its will over Chattanooga and rolled to the trouncing. The Huskies led just 17-15 with 11:15 to go in the first half before scoring the game’s next 14 points to pull away. UConn closed the first half on a 31-5 run and scored the first 15 points of the second half to put together a 46-5 stretch bridging halftime. The Huskies limited the Mocs to just 25.8% shooting and held a 58-34 rebounding advantage. Stanley Robinson was one of three 20-point scorers for the Huskies, with second-team All-American selection Hasheem Thabeet finishing with 20 points and 13 rebounds and A.J. Price adding 20 points. UConn rolled to the Final Four before falling to Michigan State 82-73 in a national semifinal.

T-4. 49, UCLA (109) vs. Wyoming (60), March 17, 1967

UCLA’s first tournament win in its unprecedented march to its first of seven consecutive national championships in 1967 stands as the largest margin of victory in a tourney game for the storied program. The Bruins took control early, leading Wyoming 55-18 at the end of one half and cruised to a 109-60 pummeling. In his first tournament game, sophomore center Lew Alcindor had 29 points and 10 rebounds for an UCLA team that shot 61.5%. The Bruins capped their perfect 30-0 season with a 79-64 win over Dayton in the national championship, with Alcindor scoring 20 points and grabbing 18 boards. In four tourney games, Alcindor averaged 26.5 points and 15.5 rebounds to win his first of three straight Most Outstanding Player awards.

T-4. 49, Syracuse (101) vs. Brown (52), March 14, 1986

Facing a Brown program making its first appearance in the tournament since the inaugural 1939 edition, second-seeded Syracuse rode a 31-4 run in the first half to demolish the Ivy League squad 101-52. Pearl Washington had a game-high 21 points while Rony Seikaly had 12 points, seven rebounds and five blocks for an Orange team that dominated the glass with 63 rebounds – the most in program history in a tourney game. Wendell Alexis and Rodney Walker each had nine rebounds as Syracuse became the first team in a dozen years to have at least five players grab seven or more rebounds in a tournament game. There have only been four tourney games since then in which a team had at least five players get at least seven boards. Two days after this thrashing, however, Syracuse came crashing back down to earth with a 97-85 loss to seventh-seeded Navy with future No. 1 NBA Draft pick David Robinson leading the way with 35 points, 11 rebounds and seven blocks.

T-6. 47, Duke (101) vs. UConn (54), March 14, 1964

While most of the entries on this list involve first-round matchups between a blue blood and an overmatched team from a small conference, this one features two of the winningest programs in men’s history with a trip to the Final Four on the line. Squaring off in a regional final, Duke dismantled UConn in the first matchup between these hoops stalwarts. The Blue Devils matched a then-tournament record with 62 first-half points as they went into the break up by 35. Jeff Mullins, who was named to the all-tournament team, paced Duke with 30 points while Hack Tison and Steve Vacendak scored 14 apiece. The Blue Devils then beat Michigan in the national semifinals before losing 98-83 to UCLA in the championship – the first of 11 titles for the Bruins.

T-6. 47, DePaul (99) vs. Eastern Kentucky (52), March 9, 1965

Of all the entries on this list, this one was actually close at halftime, as DePaul led Eastern Kentucky 44-33. The second half was a completely different story, however, as the Blue Demons blew by the Colonels, outscoring them 56-19 en route to the 99-52 pounding. DePaul’s second-half scoring differential of plus-37 points is an NCAA Tournament record, which has since been matched by Florida in its 112-69 first-round win over Jackson State in 2007 – its first victory on its way to winning a second straight national title. The Blue Demons’ season ended in the next round with an 83-78 overtime loss to Vanderbilt.

T-6. 47, Duke (84) vs. Winthrop (37), March 14, 2002

Fresh off winning the 2001 national championship, Duke began its title defense as the top seed of the South Region, and the Blue Devils had their way with Winthrop. Duke made 12 of its first 13 shots to build a 30-point lead just 12 minutes into the game and ended up taking a 52-15 lead into the locker room. First-team All-American Jason Williams finished the game with 19 points in 20 minutes, Carlos Boozer also scored 19 and Mike Dunleavy Jr. added 18, as the trio combined for 45 first-half points. The Eagles misfired on 24-of-30 first-half shots and missed all 13 3-point shots they attempted in the game. Duke’s bid for a second consecutive title ended in the Sweet 16 with fifth-seeded Indiana rallying from 17 points down to eke out a 74-73 win.

T-6. 47, Syracuse (81) vs. Montana (34), March 21, 2013

Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone regularly stymied opponents, and Montana was no exception, as fourth-seeded Syracuse steamrolled the Grizzlies. The Orange made seven of their first nine shots while the Grizzlies missed seven of their first eight as this first-round matchup quickly turned into a rout with Syracuse jumping out to a 20-4 lead. The Orange led 38-15 at halftime and then scored 17 of the first 19 points of the second half to go up by 38. That lead grew to as much as 50 as Syracuse allowed the fewest points in program history in a tourney game. Brandon Triche led the Orange with 20 points while the Griz didn’t have a player score more than five as they made just 4-of-31 3-pointers (12.9%). The five points scored by four Montana players is the lowest for a team leader in an NCAA Tournament game. The Orange later permitted 39 points in a win over Marquette in the regional finals to become the only team since 1950 to yield fewer than 40 points twice in a single NCAA Tournament. Syracuse’s season ended in the Final Four with a 61-56 loss to Michigan State.

T-10. 46, Kentucky (113) vs. Mount St. Mary’s (67), March 16, 1995

Kentucky’s 132 NCAA Tournament victories through 2025 are two fewer than North Carolina for the most by any program. And the Wildcats’ 39 wins by at least 20 points in the NCAA Tournament are four more than Duke for the most by any team. But their 46-point obliteration of Mount St. Mary’s in the first round of the 1995 tournament will go down as the largest margin of victory in the program’s illustrious history. Facing a Mountaineers team playing in its first NCAA Tournament game, top-seeded Kentucky went on an early 13-0 run to take control and never looked back. The Wildcats were red hot from long range, draining 13-of-25 3-pointers (52.0%). Tony Delk and Walter McCarty each hit three 3-pointers, with Delk leading the Wildcats with 20 points and McCarty scoring 17. Kentucky beat Tulane by 22 in the next round and Arizona State by 24 in the Sweet 16 before losing to second-seeded North Carolina 74-61 in the regional finals.

T-10. 46, VCU (88) vs. Akron (42), March 21, 2013

Hours before Syracuse blitzed Montana by 47 points in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, fifth-seeded VCU thumped Akron by 46 in an 88-42 beatdown. The Rams’ margin-of-victory is the largest by a team seeded lower than fourth. VCU scored 16 of the game’s first 20 points and closed the first half on a 16-3 run to head into halftime doubling up the Zips with a 50-25 lead. Shaka Smart’s press flummoxed Akron into 22 turnovers and the Rams limited the Zips to just 1-of-13 shooting from beyond the arc. VCU’s Troy Daniels, meanwhile, made six 3-pointers and tallied a game-high 23 points while Juvonte Reddic added 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting. Two years after stunning the nation by reaching the Final Four as an 11-seed, the Rams’ season ended in the second round with a 78-53 loss to fourth-seeded Michigan.

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In three years with the Fighting Irish, he averaged 34.6 points, including a career-high 38.1 per game in the 1969-70 season.

Then with the Cleveland Cavaliers, he was third in the NBA Rookie of the Year voting after averaging 21.2 points in the 1971-72 season and an All-Star in the 1973-74 campaign.

We had to give just a little bit of background on the 6-foot-4 shooting guard who holds five of the top 12 spots on the list of the greatest scoring performances in NCAA Tournament history.

Carr’s dominance in the NCAAs helped keep UCLA center Bill Walton’s championship game-record 44 points against Memphis in 1973 off the rankings list below for the highest-scoring games in what is now commonly called March Madness.

Most Points by a Player in a Tournament Game

1.    61, Austin Carr, Notre Dame vs. Ohio (March 7, 1970)

In the first round of the 1970 men’s basketball tournament, Carr exploded for the single-game record on 25-of-44 shooting. Remember, this was before the implementation of the 3-point line, so Carr scored 50 on field goals alone. He added 11 points from 14 free-throw attempts, helping push the Fighting Irish past the Bobcats 112-82. Carr averaged 52.7 points over three tournament games (also an NCAA record), but Notre Dame lost to Kentucky in the regional semifinals.

2.    58, Bill Bradley, Princeton vs. Wichita St. (March 20, 1965)

Perhaps angry or motivated after Princeton’s loss in the Final Four, Bradley took out his frustration on Wichita State in the third-place game. Without a 3-point line or a shot clock, Bradley poured in a Princeton-record 58 points in a 118-82 victory. Bradley, who had averaged a conference-best 28.8 points in Ivy League games, earned Most Outstanding Player honors.  

3.    56, Oscar Robertson, Cincinnati vs. Arkansas (March 15, 1958)

Over his college career, “the Big O” averaged 33.8 points, 15.2 rebounds and 7.1 assists despite standing at just 6-foot-5. But in one of his best March Madness games, Robertson nearly outscored Arkansas by himself while setting the Allen Fieldhouse (Kansas) scoring record. He finished with 56 points on 21-of-36 shooting and went 14 of 16 from the foul line in a 97-62 win over the Razorbacks in the 1958 NCAA Tournament third-place game. Remarkably, Cincinnati didn’t win a national championship over Robertson’s three-year run.

T-4. 52, Austin Carr, Notre Dame vs. Kentucky (March 12, 1970)/ Austin Carr, Notre Dame vs. TCU (March 13, 1971)

Not much more that we can say about the man who set the standard for making March Madness history. But it was less than a week after putting up an NCAA Tournament-record 61 points against the Bobcats that Carr went for 52 in a loss to Kentucky in the second round. He then blitzed TCU for another 52 a year later.

The Best of the Rest

• 6. 50, David Robinson, Navy vs. Michigan (March 12, 1987)
• 7. 49, Elvin Hayes, Houston vs. Loyola Chicago (March 9, 1968)
• 8. 48, Hal Lear, Temple vs. SMU (March 23, 1956)
• 9. 47, Austin Carr, Notre Dame vs. Houston (March 20, 1971)
• 10. 46, Dave Corzine, DePaul vs. Louisville, 2 OTs (March 17, 1978)
• T-11. 45, Bob Houbregs, Washington vs. Seattle (March 13, 1953)
• T-11. 45, Austin Carr, Notre Dame vs. Iowa (March 14, 1970)
• T-11. 45, Bo Kimble, Loyola Marymount (CA) vs. New Mexico State (March 16, 1990)

Most Points by a Team in a Tournament Game

1. 149, Loyola Marymount vs. Michigan (March 18, 1990)

The Lions dropped 149 points on the Wolverines in what is also the highest-scoring game in NCAA Tournament history (264 total points). LMU led 65-58 after the first half, which is not an uncommon final score to see in a college game. The Lions then outscored Michigan 84-57 in the second half. In addition to Jeff Fryer’s 41 points, Bo Kimble scored 37, Terrell Lowery had 23 and Per Stumer added 21. Loyola Marymount’s Cinderella story would continue until the Elite Eight, where the Lions lost to top-seeded UNLV 131-101.

The Best of the Rest

• 2. 131, UNLV vs. LMU (CA) (March 25, 1990)
• 3. 127, *Saint Joseph’s vs. Utah, 4 OTs (March 25, 1961)
• 4. 124, Oklahoma vs. Louisiana Tech (March 18, 1989)
• 5. 123, North Carolina vs. LMU (CA) (March 19, 1988)
• T-6. 121, Iowa vs. Notre Dame (March 14, 1970)
• T-6. 121, UNLV vs. San Francisco (March 12, 1977)
• T-6. 121, Tennessee vs. Long Beach St. (March 16, 2007)
• T-6. 120, Utah vs. Saint Joseph’s, 4 OTs (March 25, 1961)
• T-6. 120, Arkansas vs. LMU (CA) (March 16, 1989)

(*Team had wins vacated due to NCAA violations)

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They’re referred to as the blue bloods of men’s college basketball for a reason.

They’ve dominated for long stretches and regrouped from down seasons quickly. Without them, the NCAA Tournament just doesn’t seem the same.

The UCLA Bruins, as a result of their dynastic run under John Wooden through the 1960s and ‘70s, have won the most national championships with 11.

It’s been a long time since Oregon beat Ohio State in the first tournament final in Evanston near Chicago in 1939. But which illustrious men’s basketball programs can lay claim to the most NCAA Tournament wins?

Here are the rankings:

1. 134, North Carolina (1941-2025)

Though Duke has a higher winning percentage in the tourney and UCLA has won more titles, the Tar Heels have won the most tournament games. Of course, four of their six titles have come after the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (beating Gonzaga, Michigan State, Illinois and Michigan). Roy Williams (three), Dean Smith (two; over Georgetown in 1982 and Michigan in 1993) and Frank McGuire have coached the team to the NCAA Division I national championship game wins. UNC also has six runner-up finishes.

2. 132, *Kentucky (1942-2025)

Adolph Rupp put the Wildcats on the map in 1948, guiding the program to its first NCAA men’s basketball championship over Baylor in New York. Kentucky has also won a lot of tournament games and NCAA championships under Joe B. Hall (1978), Rick Pitino (1996), Tubby Smith (1998) and John Calipari (2012).

3. 126, Duke (1955-2025)

NCAA Tournament appearances were the norm under Mike Krzyzewski, who led the Blue Devils to all five of their March Madness title runs after taking over in 1981 (beating Arizona, Butler, Wisconsin, Michigan and Kansas). So considering the program’s more recent rise to prominence, it’s pretty impressive the Blue Devils have already tied UCLA for the second-most Final Four appearances (18) behind only North Carolina (21).

4. 113, *Kansas (1940-2024)

Clyde Lovellette winning the Most Outstanding Player with 141 points in 1952. Larry Brown and Danny Manning marching to a long-awaited title game in 1988. Mario Chalmers’ heroics in an OT win over Derrick Rose and Memphis in San Antonio, Texas, in 2008. Bill Self becoming a national champion again with a 72-69 win over North Carolina in 2022. It’s been a good run for Jayhawks basketball teams.

5. 111, *UCLA (1950-2025)

The Bruins went a ridiculous 335-22 overall from 1964 to 1975. They claimed 10 national titles over that span, including an NCAA-record seven in a row. That’s a good way to rack up men’s basketball tournament wins in a hurry. UCLA added its most recent championship with a win over Arkansas in the 1995 final.

6. 76, Michigan State (1957-2025)

With Magic Johnson leading the way, Michigan State won the title for the first time in 1979. Tom Izzo guided the Spartans to another championship in 2000 with a team that included Charlie Bell, Mateen Cleaves and Morris Peterson. Izzo seems to always have his teams ready to play in March, racking up a 55-24 record in the tournament.

The Best of the Rest

• 70, *UConn, 1951-2025
• 68, Indiana, 1940-2023
• 67, Villanova, 1939-2022
• 66, *Syracuse, 1957-2021
• 61, *Louisville, 1951-2017
• 61, Michigan, 1948-2025

(*Does not include vacated appearances)

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Richarlison was the scourge of Liverpool once again as Tottenham earned a precious 1-1 draw at Anfield on Sunday in their bid to avoid relegation, with the Reds stunned by yet another late concession.

Liverpool looked to be heading third in the table thanks to Dominik Szoboszlai’s first-half free-kick, seemingly doing just about enough despite Tottenham arguably looking the more threatening team for long stretches.

But Richarlison equalised in the 90th minute, earning Tottenham a deserved share of the spoils and a first point in charge for beleaguered interim manager Igor Tudor, upon whom pressure had been mounting.

It was Richarlison’s fifth Premier League goal against Liverpool at Anfield, a tally only Andrew Cole (eight) has bettered, and the point provides a modicum of optimism for a Tottenham side who’d looked as though they were sleepwalking towards relegation.

Goalkeeping woes had been a major factor in Tottenham’s midweek Champions League loss to Atlético Madrid, and it was hard to ignore Guglielmo Vicario’s role when Liverpool took the lead in the 18th minute.

The Reds were given a free-kick about 30 yards from goal and, despite his effort not being anywhere near the corners of the net, Szoboszlai’s shot went in via the hand of Vicario.

It was Szoboszlai’s fourth goal direct from a free-kick in the Premier League this season, a figure only two players have ever bettered in a single PL campaign.

Vicario did make something of an amends later in the half, tipping Cody Gakpo’s goal-bound effort onto the post.

Tottenham weren’t being outclassed as many might have expected given their recent issues, however.

They ended the first half reasonably well and went close twice through Richarlison headers, the first going agonisingly wide and the second forcing Alisson into a necessary save.

Nevertheless, the omens weren’t great for Spurs at the break – from the previous 13 instances of them trailing at half-time away to Liverpool in the Premier League, they’d only avoided defeat twice.

Liverpool struggled to increase their advantage, however, even with Rio Ngumoha’s best efforts.

The teenager, who became Liverpool’s fourth-youngest starter in the Premier League (17 years, 198 days), gave Pedro Porro a torrid time and probably should have made it 2-0 when cutting onto his right foot in the area and failing to curl his effort home in the 51st minute.

Shortly after he tested Vicario from just outside the box.

Spurs retained a sporadic threat, mostly through Richarlison, who again forced a good stop from Alisson just before – and just after – the hour mark.

At the other end, Mohamed Salah looked lively off the bench, but in the latter stages Spurs looked the likeliest to find the net.

And they did.

In the 90th minute, Randal Kolo Muani did brilliantly to bundle his way into the Liverpool area and tee up Richarlison for the simplest of finishes into the bottom-left corner.

It was Liverpool’s eighth goal concession in the 90th minute or later this season, their most in a single Premier League campaign, meaning it wasn’t the most unexpected collapse you’re likely to see.

Groundhog day for Liverpool.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Liverpool vs Tottenham stats from their Premier League meeting at Anfield on Sunday.

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Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well. 

Liverpool vs Tottenham Post-Match Facts

• Liverpool have dropped seven points from winning positions at Anfield in the Premier League this season, their most since the 2016-17 campaign (also 7).
• Just two of the 92 teams from England’s top four tiers have failed to win a league game in 2026: Tottenham Hotspur (P12 D5 L7) and Sheffield Wednesday (P15 D1 L14), who have already been relegated from the Championship.
• Against no side does Richarlison have more Premier League goals than Liverpool (6), with his goal today taking him to 100 goals (73) and assists (27) combined in the competition; Roberto Firmino (132) and Gabriel Jesus (118) are the only other Brazilians to reach that milestone.
• Liverpool have now conceded eight Premier League goals in the 90th minute or later this season – their most in a single campaign, overtaking seven in 2010-11. Richarlison is the only player in the competition’s history to score two goals at Anfield in the 90th minute as a visiting player.

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Bruno Fernandes broke the record for most assists by a Manchester United player in a single Premier League season while leading Michael Carrick’s men to a hugely important 3-1 win over top-four rivals Aston Villa.

Fernandes has enjoyed arguably his finest season in a Man Utd shirt in 2025-26 and he was once again decisive, setting up Casemiro and then Matheus Cunha at Old Trafford on Sunday.

Those assists took him to 16 for the season in the Premier League, breaking David Beckham’s record for the most in a single campaign by a Man Utd player (15 – 1999-00).

Benjamin Sesko then wrapped up the three points with another goal off the bench, as United moved three points clear of fourth-placed Villa to comprehensively bounce back from the disappointing defeat to Newcastle last time out.

The first half was a largely dour affair with very few clear-cut opportunities at either end despite United enjoying considerable control.

Emiliano Martínez was at least called into action in the 22nd minute, getting down low to push an Amad Diallo header wide, but otherwise the hosts created little of note.

Though it wasn’t for a lack of trying, with Cunha and Diogo Dalot both producing gorgeous crosses that their teammates weren’t able to take advantage of.

The match properly came to life in the second half, however, and the breakthrough arrived seven minutes after the break.

Fernandes’ corner delivery to the near post found Casemiro, who glanced in his seventh top-flight goal of the season, a new personal best for the Brazilian across Europe’s top five leagues.

It also marked the fifth time Fernandes has set up Casemiro in 2025-26, the most by one player to a single teammate in the Premier League this term.

Villa initially responded well, though, and Unai Emery’s men were level just past the hour, when Ross Barkley swept home with a left-footed strike in the box.

But United weren’t to be denied.

In the 71st minute, Fernandes released Cunha in behind and he held his nerve before coolly slotting beyond Martínez to retake the lead, simultaneously ensuring his colleague broke Beckham’s long-standing club record.

United added another 10 minutes later to shore things up, Sesko smashing through a crowd of players for his fourth goal off the bench in the Premier League this term just over five minutes after coming on.

Victory bolstered United’s position in third and took them a step closer to UEFA Champions League qualification.

With fifth likely to be enough for Champions League football, United now have a six-point cushion between them and Liverpool in sixth ahead of the Reds’ clash with Tottenham.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Man Utd vs Aston Villa stats from their Premier League meeting at Old Trafford on Sunday.

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Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well. 

Man Utd vs Aston Villa Post-Match Facts

• Aston Villa have lost three consecutive Premier League games, their longest run since February 2023. It’s as many defeats as they had suffered in their 17 previous league matches prior (W11 D3 L3).
• Since Michael Carrick’s first league match back in charge of Manchester United on January 17th, the Red Devils have earned 22 points in nine Premier League games (W7 D1 L1), more than any other side.
• Bruno Fernandes’ assist for Matheus Cunha’s goal was his 100th in all competitions for Manchester United, the fourth player to reach a century of assists for the club in the Premier League era, after Ryan Giggs (249), Wayne Rooney (127), and David Beckham (115).
• Manchester United have scored in their last 18 games in the Premier League, their longest run of games with a goal in the competition since a run of 23 games from 24th November 2012 to 28th April 2013.

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Manchester City slumped to a 1-1 draw at West Ham on Saturday evening and so failed to match the three points title rivals Arsenal had picked up earlier in the day. In doing so, Pep Guardiola’s side lost further ground, perhaps fatally, in the battle at the top of the Premier League table.

With eight games left to play (and just seven for Arsenal), the gap now sits at nine points. Even with City boasting a game in hand, there may well be no way back for them now. Following a second successive draw in the Premier League, the Opta supercomputer now rates City’s chances of winning the league at just 2.43%.

Based on how the game started, City had hinted that they might make light work of their relegation-threatened opponents. They dominated from the early stages and created more than enough to win the game in the first half alone.

They eventually took the lead without actually creating a shooting opportunity, with Bernardo Silva scoring a remarkable goal that was either a moment of utter genius or bizarre good fortune, as Silva dinked the ball over Mads Hermansen in the West Ham goal from a 0.03 xG chance from a tight angle. If he meant to find the net, it was one of the great Premier League goals. If he didn’t, it was little more than a mishit cross.

Silva has now been involved in seven Premier League goals against West Ham (2 goals, 5 assists), only having more goal involvements against Manchester United (2 goals, 6 assists).

The visitors, who were without their banned manager Pep Guardiola in the dugout, were so dominant that they restricted their opponents to a single shot all game, and yet their lead lasted only three minutes and 44 seconds. West Ham equalised with that sole shot when Konstantinos Mavropanos headed in from a corner.

It was only the second headed goal City have conceded in the Premier League this season – the fewest of any side.

It was also the 13th equalising goal City have conceded in league games this season, which is their highest ever in a Premier League campaign. Considering they have been relegated from the Premier League before, that is a damning indictment statistic for a team hoping to hunt down Arsenal at the top of the table.

City pushed and probed as they searched for a winner, but West Ham dropped back and dug in to earn a potentially crucial point in the relegation battle. The draw takes them out of the relegation zone at the end of a day for the first time since 2 December.

West Ham had their joint lowest shot tally in a Premier League match on record (since 2003-04), alongside the one shot they had against Chelsea in January 2014, but this was the kind of resolute defensive display that should give them huge belief in their fight against the drop.

The headline from this game, however, was that the result might well have ended the Premier League title battle, and we aren’t even halfway through March.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the West Ham vs Man City stats from their Premier League meeting on Saturday evening.

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Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well. 

West Ham vs Man City Post-Match Facts

• West Ham United now sit 17th in the Premier League table, the first time they will end a night outside the relegation zone since 2 December.
• Manchester City will end the night nine points behind top spot for just the fourth time this season (also 20 September, 1 November and 7 February). The only team to win a Premier League title having ended the night 9+ points behind the top having played 30 or more games is Man City themselves in 2013-14 (9 points behind top on 20 April after 33 games).
• West Ham had just one shot tonight, their joint fewest in a Premier League match Opta has on record – they also had one against Chelsea in January 2014. They were the first side to score with their only shot of a match since Ipswich also against Man City in August 2024 in a 4-1 loss.

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As enjoyable as honeymoon periods are, they must all, eventually, come to an end.

Chelsea had won seven of their first nine games under Liam Rosenior, only failing in that run to beat Arsenal in two EFL Cup meetings. At the start of Rosenior’s reign, very little went wrong.

But after disappointing home draws to Burnley and Leeds, in the last few days, things have started to unravel slightly. A midweek capitulation at Paris Saint-Germain has left Chelsea’s Champions League hopes hanging by a thread, and here, they slipped to a second defeat in a matter of days, deservedly losing at home to Newcastle in a blow to their hopes of securing a top-four finish. This particular honeymoon period is very much over.

Newcastle arguably had less to play for here, as they are in mid-table in the Premier League and their Champions League tie against Barcelona is still very much alive after a 1-1 first-leg draw. The second legs of those Champions League ties are this week.

That was probably the reason for Eddie Howe making five changes from Newcastle’s last Premier League game, the 2-1 win over Manchester United. Those included Joe Willock, Jacob Ramsey and Nick Woltemade making up an unfamiliar and intriguing-looking central-midfield three.

But, from start to finish, they showed no indications that they might struggle to contend with so little continuity in team selection. They were the better of the two sides and fully deserved the three points.

They opened the scoring after only 18 minutes with a fine team move that involved 10 of their players and culminated in Tino Livramento slipping Willock through down the middle of the pitch. Bearing down on Robert Sánchez in the Chelsea goal, Willock calmly slowed down, allowing Anthony Gordon to race up alongside him, and then slipped a perfect square ball to his teammate to tap into an empty net.

The goal meant that only João Pedro (11) has more goals in all competitions in 2026 among all players at Premier League clubs than Gordon (nine).

Newcastle would have been rightfully delighted to have an unexpected lead at a ground where they had a terrible record – they came into this one having lost 11 of their last 12 Premier League games at Stamford Bridge – but Gordon’s record after scoring the first goal of a game meant they could take nothing for granted. In four previous games when he’d scored first in an away Premier League game, Gordon had never ended up on the winning side (D3 L1).

The boos that met the half-time whistle might have been a little over the top, but they were nonetheless a decent indication as to how far off their best Chelsea had been.

Rosenior made changes after the break in an attempt to shake his side into gear, and they grew into the game, creating more and better chances, with substitute Liam Delap going close, Alejandro Garnacho lively, and Reece James clipping the post with a free-kick late on.

But they remained unable to find an equaliser, and Newcastle held on to secure only their second ever Premier League win at Stamford Bridge. The three points take them into the top half of the table and to within six points of Chelsea in fifth place. There is no reason for Newcastle to be giving up hope of qualifying for the Champions League once again.

Chelsea will need to put an end to this mini dip as soon as possible. They have failed to win three consecutive Premier League home games (D2 L1) for the first time since a run of five between September and November 2023 (D2 L3).

They need to get back to winning ways if they are to make use of the momentum that Rosenior had built up in his early weeks at the club.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Chelsea vs Newcastle stats from their Premier League meeting at St James’ Park on Saturday.

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Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well. 

Chelsea vs Newcastle Post-Match Facts

• Newcastle United became the fourth non-London side to win 50 Premier League away games in London, winning just their second of 31 Premier League away games at Stamford Bridge (also in May 2012, D7 L22).
• Chelsea have failed to win three consecutive Premier League home games (D2 L1) for the first time since a run of five between September and November 2023 (D2 L3).
• Aaron Ramsdale became the first player to win at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea in the Premier League with three different clubs (Newcastle, Arsenal and Bournemouth).

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Arsenal aren’t going to play well in every game as they chase their first Premier League title in two decades, but this game showed more than any other that the level of their performances could not matter less, as long as they keep on winning.

They were below par for the majority of this match and were made to wait until the dying moments for their goals – and they relied on a huge mistake from Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford to break the deadlock – but in the end, they got the win, and in doing so, opened up a gap of 10 points to second-placed Manchester City at the top of the table.

It may be that the late events of this game are looked back on as integral to Arsenal finally winning the title again, but this game will always be remembered as the night that Max Dowman became the youngest goalscorer in Premier League history. At 16 years and 73 days old, he smashed the previous record by 197 days.

That record had been held by James Vaughan for more than 20 years, having scored for Everton while playing alongside current Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta back in 2005. They were managed, at the time, by David Moyes, who was in the opposition dugout at the Emirates on Saturday.

Dowman’s goal ultimately only added a gloss to the result, with fellow substitute Viktor Gyökeres coming off the bench to score Arsenal’s crucial first in the 89th minute. While clearly the most significant of the two, his goal was swiftly forgotten as soon as Dowman netted his record-breaking goal.

Everton had come into the game without both of their first-choice centre-backs, with James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite both missing due to injury, making their task, away to the runaway league leaders, even more difficult.

But while Arsenal dominated possession and territory in the game’s early stages, it was the visitors who came closest to taking the lead. Dwight McNeil caused plenty of problems and he twice had David Raya beaten in the Arsenal goal, but still didn’t quite score the opener. First, he saw a close-range effort heroically blocked on the line by Riccardo Calafiori after Raya had failed to deal adequately with a cross. Shortly after, he struck the woodwork with a beautiful curling effort from distance.

Arsenal, meanwhile, could not find their groove in attack. They had 13 shots in the first half but those efforts were worth just 0.5 xG (to Everton’s 0.83 xG from just five shots). Nobody had more shots than left-back Calafiori (three), in an indication of both Arsenal’s reliance on set-pieces and also their failure to get the most from their forward players.

They toiled throughout the second half, too, piling players forward and showing real urgency in their play as they desperately hunted for an equaliser, but they struggled for clear-cut openings against a stubborn and organised opponent. Eberechi Eze had six shots from outside the box, the joint-most by a player in a Premier League match this season.

Arteta rolled the dice with his substitutions, all of which showed attacking intent. His decision to introduce Dowman for Martín Zubimendi and leave Gabriel Jesus on the bench raised a few eyebrows, but he was proved right beyond any doubt.

With the clock ticking down, Dowman put a cross in that Pickford failed to collect, allowing Gyökeres to tap into an empty net and send the Emirates into raptures.

Everton then sent Pickford forward for a corner as they chased an equaliser, but Arsenal cleared, Dowman collected the ball and proceeded to run the length of the pitch before passing into an unguarded net to become the youngest scorer in Premier League history.

Arsenal have now scored more goals through substitutes than any other team in the Premier League this season (11), with both goals here coming from subs.

Dowman’s goal wrapped up a dramatic and tense victory that, in truth, was far from convincing. But whether Arsenal were at their best or not, the three points were all that mattered here. They continued their march towards finally winning the Premier League title again.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Arsenal vs Everton stats from their Premier League meeting at the Emirates on Saturday.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well. 

Arsenal vs Everton Post-Match Facts

• At 16 years and 73 days, Arsenal’s Max Dowman became the youngest goalscorer in Premier League history.
• Arsenal have scored more goals via substitutes than any other team in the Premier League this season (11), with both goals against Everton coming from the bench.
• Eberechi Eze had six shots from outside the box against Everton, the joint-most by a player in a Premier League match this season, and the most by an Arsenal player since March 2023 (Martin Ødegaard, 8 vs Bournemouth).

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Top 20 Youngest Premier League Scorers

1. Max Dowman (Arsenal vs Everton on 14 March 2026) – 16 years, 73 days
2. James Vaughan (Everton vs Crystal Palace on 10 April 2005) – 16 years, 270 days old
3. James Milner (Leeds United vs Sunderland on 26 December 2002) – 16 years, 356 days old
4. Wayne Rooney (Everton vs Arsenal on 19 October 2002) – 16 years, 360 days old
5. Rio Ngumoha (Liverpool vs Newcastle United on 25 August 2025) – 16 years, 361 days old
6. Cesc Fàbregas (Arsenal vs Blackburn Rovers on 25 August 2004) – 17 years, 113 days old
7. Michael Owen (Liverpool vs Wimbledon on 6 May 1997) – 17 years, 143 days old
8. Andy Turner (Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton on 5 September 1992) – 17 years 166 days old
9. Federico Macheda (Manchester Utd vs Aston Villa on 5 April 2009) – 17 years, 226 days old
10. Lewis Miley (Newcastle United vs Fulham on 16 December 2023) – 17 years, 229 days old
11. Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest on 23 November 2024) – 17 years, 247 days old
12. Daniel Jebbison (Sheffield United vs Everton on 16 May 2021) – 17 years, 309 days old
13. Raheem Sterling (Liverpool vs Reading on 20 October 2012) – 17 years, 317 days old
14. Mikael Forssell (Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest on 20 February 1999) – 17 years, 342 days old
15. Danny Cadamarteri (Everton vs Barnsley on 20 September 1997) – 17 years, 343 days old
16. Danny Welbeck (Manchester Utd vs Stoke on 15 November 2008) – 17 years, 355 days old
17. Michael Ball (Everton vs Arsenal on 27 September 1997) – 17 years, 360 days old
18. Mark Cullen (Hull City vs Wigan Athletic on 3 May 2010) – 18 years, 12 days old
19. Lee Cattermole (Middlesbrough vs Manchester City on 2 April 2006) – 18 years, 12 days old
20. Victor Anichebe (Everton vs West Bromwich Albion on 7 May 2006) – 18 years, 14 days old

Max Dowman – 16 years, 73 days old
Arsenal vs Everton, 14 March 2026

Max Dowman smashed the record as the youngest goalscorer in Premier League history when he came off the bench to add a second at the death in Arsenal’s 2-0 win over Everton on 14 March 2026.

Everton had thrown everyone forward at a corner as they chased a late equaliser, and Dowman led a breakaway, running the length of the pitch, beating two opponents and finishing into an empty net.

He scored his goal at just 16 years and 73 days old, 197 days younger than the previous record-holder, James Vaughan, who had held this particular title for more than two decades.

Although he doesn’t hold the record as the youngest player ever to play in the Premier League (he’s second), he is the youngest ever to appear in the Champions League.

James Vaughan – 16 years, 270 days old
Everton vs Crystal Palace, 10 April 2005

James Vaughan became the youngest Premier League scorer in April 2005, when he scored the fourth goal in a 4-0 win for Everton over Crystal Palace at Goodison Park.

Vaughan, who became club’s youngest post-war player – beating Joe Royle’s previous record by 12 days – scored in the 87th minute on his Premier League debut. Everton’s side contained Mikel Arteta, who would be the man to bring on the youngest player in Premier League history, Ethan Nwaneri, 17 years later, and also the player to break Vaughan’s record, Max Dowman.

Vaughan went on to play just 51 more matches in the Premier League and scored only six more goals – 47 of his appearances and every goal came at Everton, with a five-game spell at Norwich City in 2011-12 ending his Premier League career.

James Milner – 16 years, 356 days old
Leeds United vs Sunderland, 26 December 2002

James Milner held the record as the youngest Premier League scorer for just under two and a half years, after he scored for Leeds United at Sunderland on Boxing Day in 2002.

Milner’s 50th-minute goal levelled the game at 1-1 before Robbie Fowler’s late strike settled the match in Leeds’ favour. He remains the youngest player to ever score a competitive goal for Leeds United, at 16 years and 356 days old.

Milner has gone on to be one of the most consistent Premier League players in history, now having made more appearances in the competition than any other player.

The Englishman’s strike meant that Wayne Rooney’s reign as the youngest Premier League goalscorer lasted just two months – and ended on the same day Rooney was red carded for Everton against Birmingham City. He must have heard the news.

Wayne Rooney – 16 years, 360 days old
Everton vs Arsenal, 19 October 2002

Wayne Rooney scored his first Premier League goal in October 2002 in Everton’s 2-1 win over reigning champions Arsenal at Goodison Park. Rooney’s stunning winner in injury-time ended Arsenal’s 30-match unbeaten run and was their first defeat in 24 Premier League away games.

This was Rooney’s ninth Premier League appearance, and he remains Everton’s second-youngest goalscorer in all competitions after James Vaughan, who scored his first goal nearly three years later.

Rooney assisted in his first ever Premier League match, versus Tottenham Hotspur in August 2002. Aged just 16 years and 297 days at the time, he’s the second-youngest player to assist a Premier League goal after Aaron Lennon.

At the time of writing, Rooney is still the all-time leading scorer for Manchester United in all competitions (253 goals), while only Bobby Charlton (199) has scored more league goals for the club than the striker (183). He is also the second-highest scorer in England men’s history (53) behind Harry Kane, while no outfielder has won as many caps for the Three Lions (120).

Only Alan Shearer (260) and Harry Kane (213) have scored more Premier League goals than Rooney (208), while only Ryan Giggs (162), Kevin De Bruyne (119) and Cesc Fàbregas (111) have assisted more often in the competition than he did (103).

Rio Ngumoha – 16 years, 361 days old
Liverpool vs Newcastle United, 25 August 2025

Rio Ngumoha scored a sensational 100th-minute winner on his Premier League debut for Liverpool in their 3-2 victory over Newcastle United at St James’ Park in August 2025.

Just four days shy of his 17th birthday, Ngumoha netted with his first-ever shot in the competition to win Liverpool all three points, becoming the Reds’ youngest ever competitive goalscorer.

He also broke Michael Owen’s record (17y, 143d) as Liverpool’s youngest ever debutant scorer in league competition.

Cesc Fàbregas – 17 years, 113 days old
Arsenal vs Blackburn Rovers, 25 August 2004

Cesc Fàbregas is the sixth-youngest player to score a Premier League goal but the youngest non-English player to net in the competition. His first goal came for Arsenal against Blackburn in August 2004 in the Gunners’ third game of the 2004-05 Premier League campaign.

The Spaniard scored the second goal in a 3-0 win for the Gunners to take their unbeaten run to 43 games. That run would eventually reach a record 49 matches – which included the whole of the 2003-04 Invincibles season – before losing to Manchester United at Old Trafford in October 2004.

Fàbregas was only making his third Premier League appearance in this match, while his second – just three days earlier – had seen him assist a goal for the first time in the competition. He went on to play for Barcelona in 2011 before returning to the Premier League with Chelsea ahead of the 2014-15 season.

Michael Owen – 17 years, 143 days old
Liverpool vs Wimbledon, 6 May 1997

Liverpool travelled to south London for their penultimate game of the 1996-97 Premier League season to play Wimbledon at Selhurst Park. They were to lose the match 2-1, but the fixture did see the introduction of their young star, Michael Owen, to Premier League football.

Owen – aged 17 years and 143 days on the day – scored on his competition debut with a 74th-minute consolation.

The striker would go on to score 18 times the following season as a teenager, before an exceptional 1998 World Cup with England, where he’d score versus Romania and Argentina. Owen is still the last English player to win the Ballon d’Or (2001).

Youngest Player to Score a Premier League Hat-Trick

Michael Owen is the youngest player to score a hat-trick in the Premier League. He scored three goals against Sheffield Wednesday in February 1998 at the age of 18 years and 62 days, breaking former teammate Robbie Fowler’s record from five years previous (October 1993). Fowler was 142 days older than Owen when he scored a treble against Southampton in the competition.

Owen also holds the record as the only teenager to score four goals in a single Premier League match. He was 18 years and 314 days old when he scored four goals in a win over Nottingham Forest in October 1998.

Youngest Player to Score a Premier League Own Goal

Spare a thought for Martin Cranie, who scored an own goal on his first-team top-flight debut during a 4-0 defeat for Southampton to Chelsea in May 2004. Not only this, but he remains the only player under the age of 18 to score an own goal in the competition.

Cranie broke the record for the youngest player to score a Premier League own goal, originally held by Gareth Barry. Barry scored in his own net for Aston Villa against Charlton Athletic in May 1999, aged just 18 years and 74 days old.

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A seven-point lead. Eight games left to navigate. That is all that stands between Arsenal and their first Premier League title since 2003-04.

Chasing Manchester City have a game in hand, but with points on the board, the advantage is surely with the Gunners, isn’t it?

That raises an obvious question. How do their remaining fixtures compare? Who has the easier run-in and, ultimately, who should be favourites to lift the title?

Let’s run through five different ways to analyse that very question.

First, a quick reminder of the remaining schedules:

Arsenal:
Everton (H), Bournemouth (H), Man City (A), Newcastle (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A)

Manchester City:
West Ham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A), Everton (A), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A), Aston Villa (H)

The Opta Power Rankings Say: Arsenal

One way to assess fixture difficulty is through the Opta Power Rankings. These rankings assign every club in the world a rating between 0 and 100 based on their strength. The current No. 1 side in the world (Arsenal at the moment) are rated at 100, with all others scaled relative to that benchmark.

By averaging the ratings of each team’s remaining opponents, we can estimate the overall difficulty of their run-in. The higher the average opponent rating, the tougher the schedule.

By this measure, Arsenal have the slightly easier path. Their remaining opponents carry an average rating of 90.2, compared with 91.4 for Man City.

Those numbers are slightly difficult to grasp in isolation, but they are easier to understand when placed in the context of the whole league.

When we do that, we see that City’s remaining schedule is among one of the tougher run-ins in the division, with only five teams facing a more difficult set of fixtures according to the Opta Power Rankings.

Pep Guardiola’s side still have to face tricky opponents in Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, Brentford and Aston Villa.

Arsenal’s schedule appears more forgiving. Only four teams in the league have an easier run-in based on the strength of their opponents.

Before their potentially decisive trip to the Etihad Stadium, Mikel Arteta’s side face Everton and Bournemouth at home. After that meeting with City, their final five fixtures include games against West Ham and Burnley, both currently in the relegation zone, along with home games against Newcastle and Fulham.

Taken together, Arsenal’s fixtures either side of their trip to Manchester look more favourable than City’s overall schedule, particularly in the closing stretch.

Home and Away Form Says: Arsenal

A limitation of using the Opta Power Rankings alone is that the ratings do not account for home advantage. Teams coming up against Arsenal, for example, play against a team rated 100 in the rankings regardless of whether the match is played home or away. That’s not completely right, as the location clearly affects the difficulty of the fixture to a certain degree.

Let’s layer in some home and away analysis then. The tables below show each of Arsenal and City’s remaining fixtures using the opponent’s average points per game in the relevant venue (i.e. home or away).

For example, Arsenal’s next match is at home to Everton, so we’re looking at Everton’s away points per game, which stands at 1.71.

City’s game against Everton, meanwhile, is at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, where the hosts have averaged just 1.27 points per game this season.

Funnily enough, then, Everton have been an ‘easier’ side to face when they’ve been at home compared to on their travels.

When those venue-specific figures are averaged across the remaining fixtures, the comparison again favours Arsenal. Their remaining opponents average 1.20 points per game in the relevant home or away setting, compared with 1.46 for Manchester City.

With home and away form taken into account, Arsenal’s run-in still appears marginally more favourable.

Last Season’s Results Say: Arsenal (Just)

Another simple way to view the run-in is to examine how each side performed in the corresponding fixtures last season and assume similar results.

Burnley were not in the Premier League last season, so those fixtures can be excluded from both run-ins. In any case, both Arsenal and City would be strong favourites to take maximum points from that fixture.

Across the remaining eight comparable fixtures, Manchester City took 19 points last season (P8 W6 D1 L1) while Arsenal collected 14 (P7 W4 D2 L1).

If those exact totals were replicated this year, Arsenal would still win the title, but by only two points. Oof.

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The Opta Supercomputer Says: Arsenal

Perhaps we should stop trying to guess ourselves and just ask the Opta supercomputer, which has simulated the rest of the Premier League season 10,000 times. It, too, gives Arsenal a commanding advantage.

Across the model’s 10,000 most recent simulations, Arteta’s side win the title 94.4% of the time, making them overwhelming favourites to finish top.

History Says: Arsenal

History also looks kindly on Arsenal.

Only once in Premier League history has a team led the table by seven or more points after 30 matches and failed to win the title. That came in 1997-98, when Manchester United held a nine-point lead over Arsenal in March but had played three more games than the Gunners. Arsène Wenger’s side eventually completed the comeback and won the title by a single point.

Every other instance of a seven-point lead at this stage of the season has ended with the leaders lifting the trophy. That is 12 successes from 13 attempts, a 92.3% conversion rate, though of course it should be remembered that City still have that game in hand.

So by most measures, Arsenal have to be considered strong favourites from here.

But recent history has shown us how difficult the final step can be. Arsenal have previously reached seemingly commanding positions in title races only to fall short. The final hurdle, it seems, is more often psychological than statistical for them.

The biggest challenge between Arsenal and the title may not be Manchester City, but overcoming the pressure of finishing the job.

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The post Arsenal or Manchester City: Which Side Has the Easier Premier League Title Run-In? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

The first legs of round-of-16 ties took place this week in the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and UEFA Conference League, with the ‘proper’ knockout stages beginning after something of a soft launch with the play-off round.

It proved to be a broadly dismal week for English clubs involved in European competition – only one of nine managed to win.

In the Champions League, Manchester City, Chelsea and Tottenham all suffered bruising three-goal defeats and will require huge second-leg comebacks to progress. Liverpool lost as well, though only by a single goal away to Galatasaray, while Arsenal drew 1-1 at Bayer Leverkusen and Newcastle were held to a 1-1 draw by Barcelona.

Aston Villa were the only English side to win in Europe this week. They scraped a 1-0 win away to Lille in the Europa League – in the same competition, Nottingham Forest were beaten 1-0 by Midtjylland at the City Ground. And finally, Crystal Palace were held to a goalless draw at home to Cyprus’ AEK Larnaca in the Conference League.

The collective continental performance of teams from the same nation matters because it influences how likely that league is to have an extra place in the following season’s Champions League.

English teams doing badly, for instance, could mean the Premier League doesn’t get five automatic Champions League places in 2026-27.

Well, English teams have done badly this week. So, that brings us to the key question…

How Have This Week’s Results Impacted Premier League Hopes of a Bonus Champions League Spot?

This may come as a surprise, but the Premier League’s chances of getting an extra Champions League place next season have hardly been affected at all by the poor results of English clubs this week.

But how can that be?

Well, coefficient points are awarded for wins and progress through the various rounds (excluding play-off round) in UEFA competitions, and they all add up to give each league a score. At the end of the season, each league’s total points are divided by the number of representatives they had in Europe to give an average score. The two leagues that have generated the highest average points each earn an additional spot in the following campaign’s Champions League.

Given all nine of the English representatives made it through to their respective competition’s last 16, it stands to reason that they would have averaged a high number of coefficient points already because they’ve all won a lot of matches.

England is also the only country yet to have a team eliminated. While that is likely to change next week, the expectation is Premier League sides have almost done enough to earn an additional spot already.

It’s not set in stone, of course. If all nine English teams are eliminated next week, that would be a big problem, as unlikely as it is.

But how can we be so confident that this week’s results haven’t had a huge impact on Premier League chances of an extra Champions League place?

We can use the Opta supercomputer to simulate the rest of the season across the three UEFA competitions to generate an expected average coefficient points (xPts) score for each nation. England’s current points average of 22.8 is already more than any other nation’s xPts average.

In the supercomputer’s 10,000 season simulations, England finished in the top two for average points more than 99.9% of the time. That takes into consideration the fact that several of the Premier League clubs are expected to be eliminated next week as well.

When we last ran these simulations following the conclusion of the league phases of the Champions League and Europa League at the end of January, it was also the case that English clubs did enough in more than 99.9% of sims to earn an extra UCL spot for the Premier League.

Where this week’s results have had an impact, however, is with the xPts average; in January, the xPts average of English clubs was 29.1, well clear of Germany in second (20.8).

Now, the supercomputer puts English clubs’ xPts average at 26.9, while Spain has gone up to second with a 22.8 xPts average. So, that cushion has almost halved.

Nevertheless, it’s still a massive advantage.

No One Expected the Spanish Coalition

Beyond the Premier League implications, Spain’s outlook has changed dramatically since we last ran these simulations in January.

Back then, Spanish clubs only did well enough to earn La Liga an extra Champions League spot in 7.2% of season simulations.

However, after seeing Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid win handsomely and Barcelona avoid defeat away in the UCL, as well as Rayo Vallecano winning 3-1 away in the Conference League, La Liga is now in the driver’s seat for that second additional Champions League spot.

In the latest sims, La Liga earned that extra place 74.8% of the time. So, the Spanish top flight’s chances have improved by a massive 67.6 percentage points.

Also contributing to their improved position is the fact German clubs largely struggled this week.

Bayern Munich may have one foot and four toes in the last 16 of the Champions League after thrashing Atalanta, but Freiburg and Stuttgart both lost in the Europa League, while Bayer Leverkusen will be expected to bow out when they go to Arsenal in the Champions League next week.

The woes of Italian teams will have had an impact as well.

Italy still had six of their seven representatives left in Europe after the league phases, but they lost Juventus and Inter in the UCL knockout play-offs, while Atalanta will also bow out next week barring the biggest miracle in Champions League history. Serie A is guaranteed to see another team eliminated in the last 16 of the Europa League because Bologna and Roma were drawn against each other.

So, having earned an extra Champions League spot in 24.5% of the season simulations in January, Serie A did so in just 0.5% of the latest sims.

How Does This Impact Each Nation’s Standing in the UEFA Coefficients?

A slightly less engrossing – but still important – aspect of all of this is how performances affect each nation’s more general standing in the UEFA club coefficient rankings.

According to UEFA, the coefficient rankings “take into account the results of all clubs from each association and are used to determine the number of entries an association is granted for forthcoming seasons.”

Coefficients – points, essentially – form the rankings and also influence seeding in competition draws. The rankings take into account coefficient scores from the past five seasons.

Given they cover such a long period, we don’t tend to see particularly dramatic changes from year to year towards the top of these rankings. For instance, England has been top of UEFA’s coefficients rankings since 2020-21, when it overtook Spain, which had been top between 2012-13 and 2019-20.

So, as you can see, when we run the Opta supercomputer’s simulations for the rest of the season, there’s not a massive amount of change predicted in the top eight.

The expectation is, based on the latest sims, that Portugal will move up a place above the Netherlands. But that’s about it.

There does tend to be more jeopardy and movement lower down the coefficient rankings, as shown in the graphic below.

Poland and Denmark are on course to climb three places; Cyprus could go up four spots. Austria, Scotland (both -4), Israel and Norway (both -3) look set to slide a few places, and that’s despite – in the case of the latter – Bodø/Glimt being on the verge of equalling the record for the furthest a Norwegian club has gone in the Champions League (quarter-finals).

Needless to say, however, most of the interest here relates to bonus Champions League tickets – and English clubs still look extremely likely to benefit for the second season in a row.

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The post Champions League Bonus Spot: Has English Clubs’ Dismal Week Impacted Chance of Premier League Having Five Teams in 2026-27 UCL? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

The 2024-25 season included one of the all-time great individual campaigns by a Liverpool player.

Aged 32 at the time, Mohamed Salah shoved suggestions that he was on the wane down his doubters’ throats by scoring 34 goals and producing 23 assists in 52 games in all competitions, including 29 goals and 18 assists in the Premier League to help Liverpool lift the title.

All this came in Arne Slot’s first season at the club, which suggested the Dutchman knew exactly how to get the best out of the Egyptian superstar.

Salah even said as much on the day Liverpool clinched the title at Anfield against Tottenham, telling Sky Sports: “You can see the numbers. Now I don’t have to defend much. The tactics are quite different. I said ‘as long as you rest me defensively I will provide offensively’, so I am glad that I did.

“[Slot] listened a lot and you can see the numbers… When you play in the Premier League you have to defend but I said that I can gamble and make a difference. My number of assists shows that, you can create chances as well.”

It was enough to earn Salah a two-year contract extension, but not only has he been unable to maintain his sensational form from last season, 2025-26 has probably been his poorest campaign since arriving at Liverpool in 2017.

After 32 games this season, Salah has just nine goals and eight assists in all competitions. For a lot of wingers, that would be a perfectly reasonable return at this stage of a season, but for Salah, it is a big drop off.

His least productive campaign since joining Liverpool was in 2019-20 when he only managed 36 goal involvements, though the Reds still won the league that year with 99 points. Salah will have to more than double his current total in the last couple of months of this season to even equal that.

For context, it took Salah just 16 games – half the number he’s played this season – to reach 17 goal involvements last season. After 32 games in 2024-25, he had 40 goal involvements.

Salah initially took to Slot’s football like a duck to water, scoring 32 goals and assisting 22 more in their first 41 games together in all competitions. However, in the 43 games since, Salah has just 11 goals and nine assists.

So, why the drop off? Is it as simple as age catching up with him? Possibly, but given he’s only one year older than last season when he was producing superhuman numbers, that seems a little easy for an excuse.

Could it be that the manager is asking different things of him? Slot went as far as dropping Salah for a run of games in December, and following a third game in a week in which he’d started on the bench, not even coming on in the 3-3 draw at Leeds United in December, the Egyptian sought out the media in the mixed zone.

He suggested that he had been “thrown under the bus,” adding: “I said many times before that I had a good relationship with the manager, and all of a sudden, we don’t have any relationship.”

Things have been smoothed over since, and following his return from the Africa Cup of Nations in January, Salah was back in the team. He has four goals and four assists in 12 games since, including back-to-back strikes against Wolves in Liverpool’s 2-1 loss in the Premier League and 3-1 win in the FA Cup at Molineux last week.

It was the first time Salah had scored in consecutive games since finding the net against Brentford and Aston Villa in October/November, and perhaps pointed to form being found again by the forward.

Tuesday was a landmark occasion for Salah as he overtook Jamie Carragher to claim the outright record for the most appearances for Liverpool in the European Cup/Champions League (81), but it didn’t go according to plan as he was subbed in the 60th minute in the 1-0 loss to Galatasaray.

For once, the Egyptian didn’t seem to be all that surprised or annoyed to be taken off, perhaps accepting that his performance hadn’t been good enough to stay on.

In his hour on the pitch in Istanbul, Salah failed to record a single shot, had just one touch in the opposition box, and made just one pass into the Galatasaray final third. He also only attempted one dribble, which was unsuccessful.

Of course, Salah is far from the only underperforming player at Liverpool this season. The Reds’ title defence capitulated after winning their first five league games of the campaign, and they are now scrapping for a Champions League spot. They also have work to do to stay in the Champions League in next week’s last-16 second leg at Anfield.

With the signings last summer of Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitiké and Alexander Isak, it seemed clear that Liverpool wanted to reduce their reliance on Salah’s goals and assists, but they likely wouldn’t have foreseen such a drop off in his numbers so soon.

After 32 games, Salah is averaging 0.24 non-penalty goals per 90 this season, with 0.44 non-penalty goals per 90 in 2019-20 his next worst, almost double.

Salah has averaged 2.8 shots per 90 this season, his lowest for Liverpool (next lowest 3.3 in 2022-23), so is it as simple as him not having as many opportunities to score?

It should be noted that he has only taken two penalties this season, scoring both, whereas he had 12 last season, scoring 11, which will obviously skew his overall finishing numbers a bit.

So, just looking at his non-penalty shots, his efficiency is still at its lowest point since arriving at Anfield. Salah has converted just 10% of his non-penalty shots (including blocked shots) this season, with his next worst 10.7% in 2019-20. It had not dipped below 13.3% since then, though, and last season was up at 14.7%.

The bottom line is he’s having fewer shots than ever before for Liverpool, and is also converting them at his lowest rate.

He is also having fewer big chances than ever before (0.7 per 90). Big chances are opportunities from which a player would reasonably be expected to score. In addition to having fewer of them, it’s also Salah’s worst season at Liverpool for big-chance conversion, with just six of 20 finding the net (30%). He has not had a big-chance conversion percentage worse than 40.9% for the club in a season before.

It’s not like he’s being starved of the ball, though. Salah is still having a decent level of involvement in games. He is averaging 51.2 touches per 90 this season, only having more in three of his eight previous campaigns at Liverpool.

The problem is he’s not seeing as much of the ball as close to goal as he’s used to. His 7.5 touches in the opposition box per 90 is the lowest he has ever averaged for the Reds, and down from 9.6 last season.

When comparing his touch-zone map from last season to this, you can quite clearly see the difference around the box. Salah had 20% of his touches in the opposition box last season, which is down to 15% in 2025-26. He also had 44% of his touches in the zones around the edge of the box in 2024-25, which is up to 53% this season.

Could it therefore be that Slot’s setup is keeping Salah away from goal for some reason?

When you compare his touch maps from each of this season’s games against Galatasaray, it paints a picture of how little Salah is seeing of the ball in dangerous areas. Of his total of 52 touches across both games, he touched the ball in the Galatasaray box just once.

That’s not to say it’s been like this in every match, but given they were two games against the same opponent over five months apart, it is notable how little difference there was in where Salah took his touches.

That’s not to say his touches outside the box are worthless. Salah doesn’t get enough credit for his creativity, and while those numbers are also a little down this season, he has still been able to create chances for teammates.

He is averaging 0.28 assists per 90 this season, more than in his two most recent campaigns at Liverpool. That’s bang in line with his 0.28 expected assists per 90, which is his joint-best in a sesaon for the club.

His 1.7 chances created from open play per 90 is better than four of his previous Anfield campaigns, while his 0.56 big chances created this season is his third-best effort.

That said, if you just look at his Premier League numbers, Salah isn’t having the same impact. He’s averaged 0.21 expected assists per 90 in the league this season, only twice recording lower figures since joining Liverpool.

Despite his tepid performance on Tuesday, Salah’s Champions League performances have been dragging some of his overall numbers up. He’s averaged 0.54 expected assists in Europe this season, and 0.97 big chances created, so his struggles may be more related to the fairly significant tactical tweaks made by several Premier League clubs this season. With teams generally going more direct and focusing on set-pieces, there seems to be fewer opportunities for open end-to-end games, which is where Salah has so often thrived.

Something else that has come under scrutiny is his dribbling. Memories of Salah from yesteryear are of him gliding across the turf, turning defenders inside out, and racing away from them like a Warner Bros cartoon.

Now, when Salah stands his full-back up, it’s hard to picture him keeping the ball, let alone zipping away from them.

He’s still trying, just not quite as often as usual. Salah averages 3.1 dribbles per 90 this season, only twice averaging fewer in his Liverpool career, but his 27.8% success rate is his lowest at the club. He did only average 31.6% in Jürgen Klopp’s final campaign (2023-24), but otherwise it’s never been below 39.3%, which he managed last season.

Again, though, it’s notable how those numbers change when just looking at his Premier League appearances. Salah averaged 3.7 dribbles per 90 in the league last season, with a 42.3% success rate. This season, he’s averaging 3.0 per game, with just a 20% success rate.

So, he’s dribbling less often, and with less than half the success when he does.

Liverpool often come up against low blocks, but they have been facing them more often this season (26%) than last season (22%), while their time spent facing high blocks has dropped from 25% last season to just 20% this. Simply put, Salah has often had less space to be able to take a full-back on.

It is worth noting that on the other side, Cody Gakpo’s dribbles attempted per 90 in all competitions have also gone down from 2.9 last season to 2.5 this, but his success rate hasn’t dropped anywhere near as much (from 50% to 48.1%).

Harking back to Salah’s comments about benefitting from not having to do as much defending in 2024-25, he is doing a bit more on that side of things this season than usual, which could be having a knock-on effect on his attacking output. His 0.59 tackles per 90 is the second most he’s averaged in a single campaign at Liverpool, while his 0.35 interceptions per 90 is the most.

So, is it Salah or the system that’s to blame? Well, apologies for sitting on the fence somewhat, but it appears to be both. He isn’t getting as many chances as usual, but he also isn’t generally taking the ones he does get.

His dribbling has certainly become far less of a weapon, but then it went from being quite ineffective in 2023-24 to excellent again in 2024-25, so it’s not necessarily just an age thing. The way teams are setting up against Liverpool is likely a factor, and Slot and his players have struggled to work out a consistent way of dealing with it.

Despite the overwhelming success of playing to Salah’s strengths last season, it seems Slot has tried to make the team less dependent on him, and only succeeded in showing how reliant they actually were/still are.

There is also the fact he has had an array of different right-backs behind him this season, and none of whom profile anywhere close to former teammate Trent Alexander-Arnold, who provided so much ammunition for Salah during their time together.

In the interest of saving what could still be a relatively successful season if they can clinch Champions League qualification and win at least one of their two remaining possible trophies, perhaps Slot needs to go back to what he knows and get Salah as close to goal as possible, as often as possible.

At the same time, the player himself needs to discover that groove again that petrified defenders, and back-to-back home games against Tottenham and Galatasaray next week could be ideal opportunities to do so.

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The post System or Salah? What is the Cause of Liverpool Star’s Lacklustre Season? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

There are two more gameweeks before the next international break. Or there are for every team aside from Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Wolves, thanks to the Carabao Cup final. Should you now avoid their players until next month? Let’s find out.

We’ve crunched the Opta data to identify five players you absolutely must consider owning on your Wildcard, despite them currently being picked by fewer than 10% of FPL managers.

GK – Bernd Leno | 4.9m | 1.5% Ownership

Fulham are the very definition of mid-table this season, not least because they start the weekend in 10th position. With 12 more points they’d be third, with 12 fewer they’d be level with West Ham in the relegation zone.

Defeat to Southampton in the FA Cup last weekend means optimistic hopes of European qualification is all that remains for them in 2025-26. But with Marco Silva yet to commit to the Cottagers past the end of the season, the players are perhaps also playing for their very futures at the club.

Wherever their motivation lies, Fulham are at Nottingham Forest this weekend to face the second-lowest scoring team in the Premier League. They have a decent record in the head-to-head, having won the last three meetings with a single goal conceded. Forest play in the Europa League on Thursday, too.

This all bodes well for Bernd Leno. He’s had a better season than his side’s relative lack of clean sheets suggests. Fulham haven’t conceded more than once in their last five matches in all competitions. Among goalkeepers in under 10% of FPL teams, only Dean Henderson (19) and Dordje Petrovic (18) have saved more non-penalty big chances than Leno (16).

Fulham host Burnley, another goal-averse side, next weekend. A couple of clean sheets from Leno might help them end the campaign heading in the right direction.

DEF – Ferdi Kadioglu | 4.4m | 0.3% Ownership

Brighton haven’t kept anywhere near as many clean sheets as they’d like this season, but that could be about to change.

Fabian Hürzeler’s men are off to Sunderland this weekend. While the Black Cats have a decent record scoring at home this season, they have only scored a penalty across their last two matches at the Stadium of Light. They also failed to find the net when they faced the Seagulls earlier this season.

Sunderland have also only kept two home clean sheets against sides currently outside the relegation zone. They could be good opponents at both ends of the pitch for Ferdi Kadioglu. His passes this season have been worth 2.37 expected assists, which is second for Brighton behind Yankuba Minteh (2.85).

However, none of those passes have ended up assisting a goal. Only Brentford’s Michael Kayode (2.45 xA) has delivered as much xA without assisting a Premier League goal in 2025-26.

After their clash with Sunderland, Brighton host Liverpool. A harder game in theory, but the Reds may not be all that fresh given they will have to put plenty of effort into overturning their first-leg loss to Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday.

They should be tired, and possibly demoralised if the result goes against them, while the champions have struggled for clean sheets all season. Kadioglu’s first assist of 2025-26 could be on the horizon.

MID – Mathias Jensen | 4.9m | 0.1% Ownership

Opta has a metric called big chances. These are defined as shots where “a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter.”

These are your golden opportunities, the ones where the striker is clean through and Alan Shearer gets exasperated on Match of the Day if the ball doesn’t hit the net. “He has to score that”, etc.

Across the last 10 matchdays, Brentford midfielder Mathias Jensen has created eight of them without a single one resulting in an assist. Only Bruno Fernandes has set up more big chances in this period (14), but he will cost over twice as much should you wish to add him to your FPL team.

Jensen has generated 3.90 expected assists this season, which puts him just 0.06 behind the Bees’ top man for this stat, Mikkel Damsgaard. However, the latter has four assists whereas the former has just one.

It could be time for Brentford’s finishing to catch up with Jensen’s creativity. They host Wolves this week, then travel to Leeds after that. You could even look further ahead to the first two games after the international break, with Everton and Fulham visiting the Gtech Community Stadium. Those aren’t the toughest assignments either.

But even in the much shorter term, Igor Thiago and his fellow attackers need to reward Jensen’s creative endeavours.

MID – Marcus Tavernier | 5.3m | 1.7% Ownership

This column recently selected Dango Ouattara because Brentford were away at Burnley. He duly delivered an assist before 10 minutes had elapsed. While we will be lucky to see an exact repeat of that, we’re picking Marcus Tavernier for essentially the same reason.

Bournemouth are at Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon. Andoni Iraola’s side have scored seven Opta-defined fast break goals in the Premier League this season, the third most. They should be able to use this against a Burnley side who are ranked joint-third for conceding in that manner (having done so five times).

There’s a decent likelihood Tavernier will collect a goal contribution. He’s the match’s top player for predicted assists on Opta’s model, for starters, with 0.20. Tavernier has also carried a goal threat throughout the campaign, with his 6.72 expected goals second only to Evanilson (7.39) for the Cherries.  

Having scored five goals, the midfielder looks due a goal. Tavernier had chances collectively valued at 1.37 expected goals in the last match (against Brentford) alone – his highest xG in a Premier League game across his career. With Man Utd visiting the Vitality Stadium next weekend having only kept one away clean sheet all season, it could be a profitable fortnight for Tavernier.

FWD – Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 5.7m | 9.0% Ownership

Have you noticed that there aren’t many forwards in hot form at the moment? Only three have scored more than twice across the last four gameweeks.

João Pedro has five goals in that time but is in almost half of all FPL teams so is not wildcard eligible. Benjamin Sesko (three) featured in this column for the last round of fixtures and we like to mix things up. Jørgen Strand Larsen’s three goals have come from just 0.75 xG, so don’t be surprised if he hits a dry spell soon.

We could look for the forward most due to score. Igor Thiago has only scored one of his previous 12 shots, missing three big chances along the way. He also ranks highly on the aforementioned Premier League Player Stat Predictions Table for goals this week, as do Hugo Ekitiké, João Pedro, Viktor Gyökeres and Erling Haaland. But they are all too popular to make the 10% club. Sorry, lads.

We’ll have to take a bit of a risk here and select Dominic Calvert-Lewin. He missed Leeds’ FA Cup win over Norwich last week through injury but has said he’s available to return. Assuming he plays, there are reasons for optimism.

Firstly, he has amassed the fifth-highest xG total in the division (10.5), scoring 10 times. Like Thiago, he has missed three of his previous four big chances, so has been having decent opportunities in recent weeks even though he hasn’t scored many goals.

And as Leeds are playing a UEFA Conference League-distracted Crystal Palace this week, Calvert-Lewin should get more chances to score. Fingers crossed he is as fit as he claims, because he will start if he is.

*FPL player values and ownership data accurate as of 12 March 2026

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The post The 10% Club: Opta’s Best Under-the-Radar FPL Picks for Gameweek 30 appeared first on Opta Analyst.

In Gameweek 30 of FPL Challenge, Goal Threat, we’re going back to basics: any player who records three or more attempts at goal will receive an additional six points. That means we’re going to see some top-heavy lineups this week.

There feels like no better opportunity to remind readers of Opta Analyst’s Premier League Player Stat Predictions page, which features data-driven Premier League player stat predictions every week for goals, assists, shots, passes, tackles, cards and more.

Among those with a good chance of starting, let’s see which players are predicted to have the most shots in Gameweek 30:

What becomes immediately clear is that Opta’s prediction model thinks Liverpool could do some serious damage against Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday. Remember, though: you can only pick a maximum of one player per club.

There is also the added complication of this Gameweek falling between the first and second legs of the UEFA Champions League knockout phase, meaning many of these players run the risk of being substituted early or rested entirely.

Unsurprisingly, we’ll be setting up in a 1-1-1-3 formation this week.

Goalkeeper

Dean Henderson: Crystal Palace vs Leeds United (H)

One of the toughest decisions this week is selecting a goalkeeper, largely because the teams most likely to keep a clean sheet this week (Arsenal, Liverpool, Brentford) have players further up the pitch that we’d rather prioritise.

With that in mind, our pick between the sticks is Dean Henderson, whose Crystal Palace side host Leeds United on Sunday.

Palace appear to be finding a hint of rhythm after a sharp drop-off in performance during the festive period, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them frustrate a Leeds side who have failed to score in their last two Premier League games.

Defender:

Gabriel Magalhães: Arsenal vs Everton (H)

We aren’t expecting Gabriel Magalhães to hit the three-shot threshold this week (he is yet to do so this season), but if any defender were to manage it, few would be surprised given his threat from set-pieces.

Three goals, four assists and 13 clean sheets combine to earn Gabriel 7.1 points per start on average this season in FPL, the second most of any player behind Erling Haaland (7.2). That’s why he’s a lock for this column on a near-weekly basis.

Midfielder

Bruno Fernandes: Manchester United vs Aston Villa (H)

Another column regular is Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes, whose predicted shot tally for this Gameweek is 2.77 – narrowly outside the top 10.

The reason we’ll be picking Fernandes ahead of other midfielders with marginally higher shot projections is simple: Man Utd do not have a European fixture to worry about in midweek. That should mean he’s safe for a full 90-minute appearance, and we don’t have to worry about a frustrating substitution when he’s sat on two shot attempts.

It must be said, of course, that most of his threat comes from setting players up rather than scoring himself. He has 14 assists in the Premier League this season – six more than any other player – and needs just one more to tie David Beckham for the single-season record for Man Utd.

Forwards

Hugo Ekitiké: Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur (H)