AFLM Predictions – Round 1, 2023
Time to dust off the cobwebs again for another year of the AFLM, and we’ll try and have a bit more nuance and thought into our discussion posts. Not much to say for the start of the year, though; Geelong’s rating is massively higher than anyone else’s and them going back-to-back looks very likely (although we did say the same about Melbourne last year). On the back-end, we’re building our predictions entirely in R now rather than through a spreadsheet.
MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 61
Tonight’s prediction: Perth Scorchers 67% chance to defeat Brisbane Heat
Woe be upon the Sydney Sixers, whose MBBL campaign came to a close with a shambolic performance on their home ground. Winning the toss and choosing to bat themselves, a very sluggish innings with only seven boundaries saw them fail to reach a run a ball, the largely-untouched Brisbane Heat bowling lineup bowling very tightly. The batting from the Heat was spotty, but hero Michael Neser made a career-best 48* at No. 7 to steer Brisbane home with an over and a half to spare.
Tonight, all eyes go to Perth Stadium to watch…what seems like it could be predetermined, the Perth Scorchers by far a stronger team on paper and prepared to win their fifth MBBL title (and second in a row). T20 is a very funny game, though…
MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 60
Tonight’s prediction: Sydney Sixers 65% chance to defeat Brisbane Heat
Four days ago, in the last MBBL game of January (the summer holidays ending for much of Australia), the Brisbane Heat fairly casually qualified for the preliminary final despite Shaun Marsh’s efforts for the Melbourne Renegades. Close to 11,000 – including yours truly – attended the Docklands game, and while the cricket may have not been the greatest game ever the environment and atmosphere was enough to hope for a future for the MBBL.
Continue reading “MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 60”MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 59
Tonight’s prediction: Brisbane Heat 53% chance to defeat Melbourne Renegades
Sean Abbott looked close to steering the Sydney Sixers into the final for the fourth year running, taking three wickets in the powerplay to leave the Perth Scorchers on the ropes. He wasn’t counting on the efforts of hometown favourite Ashton Turner, who celebrated the aftermath of his 30th birthday by making his highest T20 score ever, 84* in just 47 balls, as the Scorchers won and further improved their rating.
Continue reading “MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 59”MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 58
Tonight’s prediction: Perth Scorchers 51% chance to defeat Sydney Sixers
Rain in Sydney – shock – led to an anticlimactic elimination final last night. After Usman Khawaja’s stunning 94 steered his Brisbane Heat side to 5/203, a sluggish start to the Thunder’s innings meant that after they were taken off in the seventh over for rain, they were behind on the DLS target, and the Heat made their way to set up a return clash with the Melbourne Renegades for a spot in the preliminary final – imagine that at the start of the season.
Continue reading “MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 58”MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 57
Tonight’s prediction: Sydney Thunder 58% chance to defeat Brisbane Heat
It took all the way to the last game to decide the makeup of the finals, especially after Hobart’s miracle victory over the Brisbane Heat in the early game. Despite some wobbles, though, the Sydney Thunder took out victory against the Melbourne Stars to jump to fourth and give the MBBL its first ever final at the Sydney Showgrounds.
Continue reading “MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 57”MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 55 & 56
Today’s predictions: Brisbane Heat 50% chance to defeat Hobart Hurricanes, Sydney Thunder 60% chance to defeat Melbourne Stars
There was some trouble on the way, but things might have finally come good for the Melbourne Renegades – after three consecutive wooden spoon seasons, the win over Adelaide last night delivered Red Melbourne a 7-7 record for the season and guaranteed them a home final…precisely who they play remains up for grabs.
Continue reading “MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 55 & 56”MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 54
Tonight’s prediction: Adelaide Strikers 54% chance to defeat Melbourne Renegades
Steve Smith couldn’t complete his hat trick of centuries, but the Sydney Sixers continued their dominant form with a comfortable victory over Hobart last night. The game didn’t have much meaning for the magenta side – who were guaranteed second place anyway – but it made things a little more difficult for the Hurricanes, who’ll be watching on to see if they can still make a last-minute leap into finals.
Continue reading “MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 54”MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 53
Tonight’s prediction: Sydney Sixers 66% chance to defeat Hobart Hurricanes
Both of yesterday’s games were a) high-scoring, b) far closer than they should have been), and c) all that was needed to seal up a ladder position. At the early game in Brisbane, the Heat almost threw away a golden position against the Stars, but held their nerve for a four-run victory – dooming the Stars to last place on the ladder.
Continue reading “MBBL|12 Predictions – Match 53”
The Flag 