The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US fell to -0.2 in March 2026 from 7.1 in February, well below forecasts of 3.2. The reading showed that manufacturing activity held steady in the New York State in March. New orders increased modestly (6.4 vs 5.8), while shipments declined (-6.9 vs -1). Unfilled orders rose (10.8 vs 9.1), delivery times lengthened (13.7 vs 4), and supply availability was slightly worse (-3.9 vs -1). Also, inventories increased (6.9 vs 7.1), employment rose modestly (5.8 vs 4) and the average workweek edged up (1.9 vs 2.1). The pace of input price increases declined significantly but remained elevated (36.6 vs 49.1), while the pace of selling price increases was little changed (21.4 vs 22.2). Meanwhile, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead (31 vs 34.7), and capital spending plans strengthened (21.6 vs 18.2).

Futures tracking US equities were sharply higher on Monday, rebounding from the the near four-month lows on Friday as markets reassessed the risk of a lasting energy shock in the economy. Contracts for the S&P 500 were 0.8% higher, while those for the Nasdaq 100 gained 1% and those for the Dow added 0.6%. Selected tankers carrying liquified petroleum gas crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend to suggest that the Iranian regime has a degree of leniency with energy exports to allied countries, limiting concerns of a prolonged shortage as Iran, Israel, and the US escalated their defiant rhetoric in their war. Credit-sensitive sectors gained as yields retreated across the curve, maintaining the outperformance for the tech sector with Nvidia 1.5% higher pre-market while Amazon and Microsoft gained almost 1%. Also, Meta advanced nearly 3% on reports that it plans to layoff 20% of its workforce due to efficiency gains from AI adoption.

Oil prices have eased slightly but Brent remains above $100 per barrel, the highest level since July 2022, as supply risks in the Middle East stay elevated after a second attack in three days on Fujairah, a key UAE port just outside the Strait of Hormuz. Oil loading was suspended while damage is assessed following the latest strike, which came after a drone attack on Saturday that disrupted shipments from the country’s main export route. The US also said it struck military sites on Iran’s Kharg Island, a major oil export hub, though Iranian media reported shipments were continuing. President Donald Trump said the US is demanding other countries help defend the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has slowed sharply since the conflict began. Some vessels have started attempting the passage while global authorities move to stabilize supply, with the IEA coordinating a record 400 million barrel reserve release as traders wait for clearer evidence of actual supply losses.

European natural gas futures rose over 3% toward €52/MWh on Monday as markets remained focused on prolonged supply disruptions amid the escalating Middle East conflict. Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Israel and several Arab states after the US targeted military installations on Kharg Island, a key hub handling most of the country’s oil exports, raising concerns about continued upheaval and further delaying the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping chokepoint. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump urged countries to help secure the passage, while reports indicated that the administration is expected to announce this week that several nations have agreed to form a coalition to escort vessels through the Strait. At the same time, European Union foreign ministers are set to discuss expanding a small naval mission in the Middle East.

India’s wholesale prices rose 2.13% year-on-year in February 2026, accelerating from a 1.81% increase in January and exceeding expectations of a 2% gain. This marked the fastest rise since February last year, driven by a pickup in inflation for primary articles (3.27% vs 2.21% in January), mainly due to higher costs of food articles (2.19% vs 1.55%) and a sharp acceleration in non-food articles inflation (8.80% vs 4.97%), pushed by a surge in oilseed prices (25.38% vs 0.11%). Price growth also increased for manufactured products (2.92% vs 2.86%), led by tobacco products (6.28% vs 1.38%), textiles (3.29% vs 2.48%), wearing apparel (2.14% vs 2.08%), and leather and related products (1.58% vs 0.78%). Meanwhile, prices for fuel and power continued to decline (-3.78% vs -4.01%), reflecting sustained drops in LPG (-4.63% vs -7.68%), petrol (-5.38% vs -4.58%), and HSD (-3.72% vs -4.26%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices rose 0.25%, easing from a revised 0.38% increase in January.

The Japanese yen strengthened past 159.5 per dollar on Monday, trimming last week’s losses amid concerns that breaching the key 160 level could prompt foreign exchange market intervention by authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is monitoring currency movements closely and is prepared to act with strong measures if needed. The yen had fallen for four straight weeks as the Iran war and surging oil prices weighed on Japan’s oil-importing economy. Markets are also speculating that the US will soon announce a coalition of countries to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, although a senior Japanese official said the threshold is “extremely high” for Tokyo to deploy warships to help protect the shipping lane. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to hold its policy rate steady this week amid heightened uncertainty over the Iran war’s impact on the domestic economy.