Live Global Conflict Escalation Index
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% WW3 Chance
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Index interpretation
0–3%
Background Noise
Normal geopolitical tension. No active escalation vectors.
3–6%
Elevated Tension
Escalatory signals in one zone. Diplomatic pressure rising.
6–10%
Active Escalation
Military posturing across multiple zones. Superpower rhetoric escalating.
10–16%
Global Warning
Concurrent crises with direct superpower involvement. High alert.
16–22%
War Preparation
Major military mobilisation. Formal alliance activations. Chokepoints threatened.
22%+
Critical Threshold
Reserved for nuclear events, direct superpower combat, or multi-front war.
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Conflict Zone Status 72h weighted signals
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Latest Signals View all →
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7-Day Index Trend
Reading the Index
0–3%Background noise. Normal geopolitical tension, no active escalation.
3–6%Elevated tension. Escalatory signals in one zone, diplomatic pressure rising.
6–10%Active escalation. Military posturing, superpower rhetoric escalating.
10–16%Global warning. Concurrent crises with direct superpower involvement.
16–22%War preparation. Major mobilisation, alliance activations, chokepoints threatened.
22%+Critical threshold. Nuclear events or direct superpower combat only.
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