Month in Review

• Value and international equity markets continued their strength in February, extending the strong start to 2026 for diversified portfolios.
• The S&P 500 TR Index declined -0.76% for the month, with technology and growth stocks again weighing on the index. Large cap growth stocks declined -3.36% in the month of February, taking 2026 returns to -4.82% (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index)
• Equities outside of large cap growth again showed strength. Within the large cap space, value rose +2.59% in February (Russell 1000 Value TR Index), small caps rose +0.80% (Russell 2000 TR Index), and international equities led major equity indices at +5.02% during the month (MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index)
• Bond markets benefitted from a decline in interest rates across the yield curve, driving the core bond index to a strong +1.64% monthly gain (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond TR Index)

Stock Market & Geopolitical Events

One of the more well-known investing adages is the “stock market climbs a wall of worry”, which is particularly appropriate for times of geopolitical conflict such as the present.

Acknowledging the human impact of geopolitical events, history shows that the impact to equity markets tends to be short-lived. Looking at the period since the S&P 500 was incepted, excluding the present conflict in Iran, the S&P 500 has declined an average of -5.3% over 11 trading days following the start of major geopolitical events (shown in the table below).

Historically following the initial sell-off, investors digest the fundamental impact to the stock market (which tends to not be long-lasting in nature), and the stock market exhibits some symmetry – recovering the initial loss in an average of 12 trading days. While conflicts like the present can exhibit immense human cost, history shows that the stock market will continue to climb the wall of worry.

S&P 500 Selloffs Around Geopolitical Events

What’s on Deck for March?

• The Federal Reserve meets on March 18^th, but as of the time of writing, investors are pricing in a 97% probability of no interest rate cuts. Current pricing indicates expectations of two 0.25% rate cuts in 2026.  
• Following earnings season, expectations for capital expenditures on AI technologies reached new extremes. The five “Hyperscalers” (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) have guided roughly $700bn of capex in the next 12 months. If realized, this would be one of the larger investment outlays relative to GDP in modern history (~2% of GDP). Investors are paying close attention to efficacy of this record investment.

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Insights at a Glance

• Working with Confluence Financial Partners can help you structure the conversation and help create a plan that could support both your financial goals and your family’s future.
• Thoughtful financial planning can provide clarity and structure, which could reduce confusion and potential conflict for heirs.
• Updated estate documents and coordinated beneficiary designations help ensure assets transfer according to your wishes.
• Involving the next generation in financial conversations may build confidence, responsibility, and long-term discipline.
• Regular family meetings could keep everyone aligned on shared goals, expectations, and future decision making.
• Strategic tax planning may preserve more wealth for your children and grandchildren.
• Defining a clear purpose for your wealth may strengthen your family’s legacy beyond financial assets alone.

Financial planning is often centered on retirement timelines, investment returns, and tax efficiency. While those elements matter, thoughtful financial planning reaches far beyond numbers. At its core, it is about stewardship. It is about aligning your resources with your values and preparing the next generation for both opportunity and responsibility.

A well-constructed plan can do more than preserve wealth. It could influence the financial mindset, confidence, and long-term trajectory of your children and grandchildren.

It Helps Create Clarity Instead of Confusion

Without a clear plan, wealth transfers can create stress and unintended consequences. Uncertainty around estate documents, beneficiary designations, or asset distribution can lead to conflict and costly legal challenges. Thoughtful planning should address these risks in advance.

Keeping wills and trusts up to date, confirming beneficiary designations, and coordinating tax strategies help ensure assets are transferred according to your wishes. When your affairs are organized and clearly communicated, they work to provide direction rather than uncertainty during an already emotional time.

We believe clarity is one of the greatest gifts you can leave your family.

It Can Help Teach Financial Responsibility

One of the most powerful aspects of financial planning is the example it sets. Children observe how money is earned, saved, invested, and given. A thoughtful approach can demonstrate discipline, patience, and intentional decision making.

Including adult children in appropriate financial conversations can be especially impactful. Explaining why certain decisions were made, whether related to charitable giving, business succession, or investment philosophy, gives meaning to the assets they may one day inherit.

Wealth without preparation can erode quickly. Wealth paired with education and shared values is far more likely to endure.

It Strives to Encourage Family Meetings and Open Dialogue

Many families avoid conversations about money. Silence often leads to misunderstanding. Holding regular family meetings creates a structured opportunity to discuss long term plans, expectations, and responsibilities.

These meetings do not need to be overly formal. They can be simple gatherings focused on keeping everyone informed and aligned. Topics might include the purpose of a family trust, succession plans for a business, philanthropic priorities, or how future decisions will be made.

When families meet intentionally to discuss their vision for the future, it helps keep everyone on the same page. It also reduces the likelihood of confusion or conflict later. Open dialogue builds trust and reinforces that financial planning is a shared effort, not a surprise revealed too late.

It Could Help to Reduce Tax and Administrative Burdens

Strategic planning can significantly affect what the next generation ultimately receives. Coordinating estate planning with tax strategies such as lifetime gifting, Roth conversions, or charitable structures may reduce estate and income tax exposure.

Proper titling of assets and aligned beneficiary designations can also streamline administration, helping heirs avoid unnecessary delays and expenses. While taxes are not the only consideration, minimizing avoidable friction allows the ability for your legacy to be transferred more efficiently and intentionally.

It May Provide Purpose Beyond Wealth

Thoughtful financial planning shifts the focus from accumulation to intention. When families define what their wealth is meant to accomplish, whether supporting education, sustaining a business, funding charitable initiatives, or creating long term security, money becomes a tool rather than a source of division.

Some families formalize this through a written mission statement or shared set of guiding principles. These frameworks provide continuity and remind future generations that wealth carries both opportunity and responsibility.

The Long View

Thoughtful financial planning is not a one time event. It is an ongoing process that evolves as markets change, laws shift, and family circumstances grow more complex. Regular reviews and continued communication ensure your strategy reflects both your financial goals and your family’s values.

Ultimately, the impact of financial planning extends far beyond your lifetime. With clarity, preparation, and intentional family meetings, you can do more than transfer assets. You could transfer wisdom, stability, and direction.

If you are ready to begin these conversations, the team at Confluence Financial Partners can help guide the process. From facilitating family meetings to coordinating estate and tax strategies, we work alongside you to help create a thoughtful plan that reflects your values and prepares the next generation with confidence.

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Month in Review

• Diversification was the name of the game in January, with value stocks, small cap stocks, and international stocks leading markets higher, as the S&P 500 finished January up +1.45% (S&P 500 TR Index)
• Weakness in Technology stocks continued for the second straight month, causing the large cap growth stock index to fall -1.51% in January (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index). In contrast, large cap value stocks started 2026 strongly, with the Russell 1000 Value TR Index rising +4.56% in January.
• Small caps and international stocks continued their strength as well, with the small caps rising +5.35% (Russell 2000 TR Index) and international stocks rising +5.98% (MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index) in January.
• Bond markets were nearly unchanged during the month (+0.11%, Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond TR Index), as investors balanced the steady decline in inflation with the nomination of a new Federal Reserve leader.

US Dollar Continues to Weaken

The US dollar continued to decline versus major currencies in 2026, falling roughly -2% in January. The decline in 2026 follows-up a decline of 9.4% in 2025, which was the worst calendar year for the dollar since 2017. There are many potential causes to the decline over the past 13 months, such as: changes in interest rates, starting valuation of the dollar, and changes to the fiscal outlook for the United States. The decline also has tangible impact on stock and bond markets, particularly coming off of a bull market for the dollar that lasted from March 2008 to September 2022.

For stock markets globally, the effect of the decline is two-fold. For US-based companies, especially large cap stocks in indices such as the S&P 500, a weakening dollar does boost earnings growth for these companies (unlike the US economy, S&P 500 Index generates 30% of sales from overseas).

For international equity markets, it has been a boon for US-based investors. US-based investors owning international stocks have three sources of return: share price + dividend yield + currency impact. The depreciation of the dollar added almost 8% to the return of the international stock market for US-based investors in 2025 (+32.39% in 2025, MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index). This continued in January with a roughly 1.4% boost via currency (+5.98% in January, MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index). Continued weakening of the US dollar could be a positive factor for US investors that own international stocks. For commodities and currency alternatives, dollar weakness has been a mixed bag: gold shined (+9.31% in January, S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index), while Bitcoin struggled (-4.29% in January, S&P Bitcoin USD).

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; Currencies in the DXY Index are: British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

What’s on Deck for February?

• Earnings seasons covering the fourth quarter of 2025 continues in February, with the majority of the Index’s market capitalization reporting in late January and early February. AI-related investment and consumer strength will be the key themes watched by investors.
• The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates constant in January. Kevin Warsh was nominated to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve – he will begin the confirmation process.

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Private wealth management is a comprehensive approach to accumulating, preserving, and growing wealth. It goes beyond investment management alone, bringing together holistic financial planning, tax strategy, estate considerations, and ongoing guidance tailored to an individual or family’s full financial picture.

Rather than offering one-size-fits-all solutions, private wealth management is highly personalized. The goal is to help clients make confident financial decisions across every stage of life while aligning their wealth with what matters most to them.

A Holistic View of Your Financial Life

At its core, private wealth management looks at the whole picture. This includes investments, cash flow, tax efficiency, risk management, retirement planning, and legacy goals. Each element is considered in relation to the others, creating a coordinated strategy designed to support both short-term priorities and long-term objectives.

This approach can help reduce complexities, identify opportunities, and avoid costly missteps that can occur when financial decisions are made in isolation.

Personalized Investment Strategy

Investment management is a key component of private wealth management, but it is always rooted in the client’s broader plan. Portfolios are designed based on factors such as goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

Rather than reacting to short-term market movements, private wealth management emphasizes disciplined, long-term strategies. Ongoing monitoring and adjustments help ensure investments remain aligned as markets shift and life circumstances and goals evolve.

Planning Beyond Investments

Private wealth management also addresses areas that extend well beyond the portfolio. This may include retirement income planning, charitable giving strategies, business succession planning, and estate coordination. Thoughtful tax planning and risk management are often integrated to help preserve wealth and improve overall efficiency.

By coordinating these elements, private wealth management helps clients navigate complexity with greater clarity and confidence.

Ongoing Guidance and Partnership

One of the most valuable aspects of private wealth management is the ongoing relationship with an advisor. As life changes in ways such as career transitions, family milestones, or unexpected events, financial strategies need to adapt. Private wealth management provides continuous guidance, helping clients stay focused on their long-term plan while making informed decisions along the way.

This partnership offers not just technical expertise, but also perspective during uncertain or emotionally charged moments. Working closely with a trusted advisor can help avoid knee jerk decision making at critical junctions.

Who Can Benefit from Private Wealth Management?

Private wealth management is often associated with high-net-worth individuals and families, but its value spans most asset levels. It is about more than managing money. It is about creating structure, clarity, and confidence so that wealth can support the life you want to live today and in the future.

Learn More About Private Wealth Management

If you’re interested in learning more about private wealth management and whether it may be a fit for you, a conversation can be a helpful first step. Understanding how your investments, planning, and long-term goals work together can bring greater clarity and confidence to your financial decisions.

And if you already work with a wealth management team, we’re always happy to provide a thoughtful second look. A fresh perspective can help confirm you’re on the right track or identify opportunities that may have been overlooked. Whether you’re just getting started or refining an existing plan, the goal is the same: ensuring your wealth strategy truly aligns with your goals.

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Markets Power Higher Through Noise

• The longest government shutdown in history, slowing job creation, and concern over sustainability of AI investment did not slow down equity markets in the Fourth Quarter.
• Record concentration in the S&P 500 in the US, driven in large part by the enormous spending on AI, caused some volatility during the quarter. Market concentration will likely be closely watched by investors in 2026.
• Ultimately, stock and bond markets finished 2025 on a high note, particularly for diversified investors: international equity markets posted strongest relative results to the US in over 30 years.
• Strong finish and year was supported by fundamentals: higher earnings growth internationally, and strong earnings in the US that allowed the market to “grow” into historically expensive valuations.

What Happened in the Fourth Quarter and 2025?

The Fourth Quarter of 2025 finished on a strong note, with all major equity markets finishing in positive territory. This is despite an increase in volatility in October and November, following the longest government shutdown in US history, and investor concern around the sustainability of the massive investment in Artificial Intelligence. The government shutdown resulted in some economic data being suspended, but alternative measures showed that the economy was creating fewer jobs during the fourth quarter. In the stock market, strong earnings were the name of the game throughout 2025- outside the US, there was a strong embrace of fiscal stimulus, which powered earnings growth higher in Europe and Japan. The stronger-than-expected earnings growth, along with a weakening US dollar, resulted in international equity markets having their best relative results to the US since 1993 (via MSCI World Ex-US Index and S&P 500 Index). In the US, the S&P 500 started the year historically expensive and stayed that way throughout 2025, ultimately producing a third consecutive year of double-digit gains (historically rare occurrence). The S&P 500’s valuation largely stayed constant during 2025, reflecting strong growth in earnings that was responsible for nearly all of the index’s 2025 results. The growth-driven market did result in the trailing dividend yield on the S&P 500 Index hitting its lowest point since 2000 (1.20%), in contrast to higher yielding international equity markets.

Sources: Morningstar, Average S&P 500 Stock = S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index, US Large Caps = S&P 500 TR Index, US Small Cap = Russell 2000 TR Index, Developed International = MSCI EAFE NR Index, Emerging Markets = MSCI Emerging Markets NR Index, Core Bonds = Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index, US Large Growth = Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, US Large Value = Russell 1000 Value TR Index

The bond market was a benefactor of falling inflation and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, resulting in the bond market (Bloomberg US Agg Bond Index) having its strongest calendar year since 2020, finishing comfortably above cash for the year. Short-term interest rates have fallen faster than long-term interest rates (“steepening yield curve”), as the Fed delivered three rate cuts in 2025 (following three cuts in 2024). Investment grade and high yield bonds also had a strong quarter and year, with spreads falling to low levels as the economy continued to grow. The outlook for additional rate cuts shifted during the quarter, with a roughly 60% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in March 2026 priced by the market (as of 1/1/2026).

All About Artificial Intelligence

The investment in Artificial Intelligence technologies is on track to be the largest investment in US infrastructure in 100 years. The magnitude of investment had an impact on both the economy and stock market in 2025. For example, the chart below illustrates capital expenditures by the Technology sector as a percentage of US gross domestic product (GDP). It compares the current investment in AI technologies to other major infrastructure investment cycles historically – the current is significantly higher than the amount invested in Interstate highways and the Apollo Space Project, for example.

Source JPMorgan,: Manhattan District History, BEA, Planetary Society, Eno Center for Transportation, San Francisco Fed, Hoover archives, Baruch, GoldenGate.org, New York Times

This had a tangible impact on economic data: investment in AI data centers was responsible for almost all of the economic growth in the first six months of 2025, more than consumer spending which is 2/3 of long-term GDP growth!

As discussed in previous editions of Market Pulse, the massive investment from Technology companies has also had a profound impact on equity market results and composition. In the United States, this has meant an increasingly concentrated equity market (over 40% of the S&P 500’s value is in ten companies), and a continuation of the outperformance of larger companies versus smaller companies. For example, the S&P 500 has outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (average stock) by 34% over the past 3 years, the widest 3-year performance gap in history. US large cap stocks also outperformed small cap stocks in 2025, marking the 5^th consecutive year of large cap outperformance. Investors expect there to be benefit to other companies within the stock market, forecasting a narrowing gap of earnings growth between the 10 largest companies and the rest of the stock market.

What’s Ahead for the First Quarter?

Investors will be watching for early clues in the tug-of-war going on between slowing job growth and expectations of a reaccelerating economy through the stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA). The latter is expected to produce higher-than-average Federal tax refunds, which should be a boost to consumer spending. On the other side, expectations are for job growth to slow to under 50,000 new jobs per month, one sign the economy is slowing down. Inflation is a key reason the market is only expecting one 0.25% rate cut in the first quarter: core inflation is falling but remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s target level of inflation. The equity market is coming off another year of strong results: the S&P 500 had double digit returns for three consecutive years for just the 9^th time since 1928. Investors will look for signs of broadening participation from smaller companies, and improvement in earnings growth outside the mega-cap Technology companies.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S & P 500 Index is a broad, unmanaged index of 500 of the largest US publicly traded companies and does not reflect the impact of fees, taxes or expenses. Any investment in the S&P 500 or similar indices, like the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and they do not reflect the costs of investing in an actual portfolio. Investors should consider their individual risk, tolerance, investment objectives, and consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.

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Legacy Planning for Affluent Families: Preparing the Next Generation

For today’s affluent families, the conversation around legacy extends far beyond financial assets. We believe true legacy is built on values, purpose, and a shared understanding of what wealth is meant to accomplish. As families focus on multi-generational wealth planning, the goal is no longer to simply pass down wealth, but to prepare the next generation to carry it forward with clarity and confidence. Thoughtful family wealth stewardship helps to ensure that financial and human capital grow in tandem, protecting not just what your family owns, but what it stands for.

Rethinking Wealth, Values, and Family Legacy

Modern legacy planning for families requires reimagining the role wealth plays in shaping identity, opportunity, and responsibility. As assets grow and generations evolve, families are increasingly asking deeper questions:

• How do we ensure wealth strengthens our family rather than complicates it?
• What values do we want reflected in the decisions our children make?
• How do we create unity and purpose across generations?

By reframing wealth as something entrusted, not simply inherited, families can build a shared vision that guides decisions, strengthens relationships, and prepares the next generation for meaningful stewardship.

The Questions That Shape Meaningful Wealth Planning

We believe the most effective generational wealth planning begins not with documents or tax strategies, but with thoughtful, reflective questions often discussed during a family meeting. Here are a few questions that can lead families to deeper clarity:

• What are our family’s true assets beyond financial capital?
• What kind of opportunities and responsibilities do we want wealth to create for the next generation?
• How wealthy do we want our children to be, and why?
• How do we use our success to create impact for others?

These questions encourage families to look beyond efficiency and focus on the purpose behind the plan. When answered together, they become the foundation of a values-based approach to wealth transfer planning.

From Wealth Transfer to Wealth Transition

Traditional planning often centers on maximizing what is passed down. But affluent families are shifting toward a more holistic approach: transitioning wealth with intention, preparation, and structure in the present and the future. The difference is profound.

Wealth transition includes:

• Preparing heirs for financial responsibility
• Encouraging leadership and decision-making
• Creating communication frameworks such as family meetings
• Providing mentorship and education long before an inheritance arrives

By focusing on transition, not just transfer, families equip rising generations to effectively manage wealth rather than simply receive it.

Philanthropy as a Tool for Stewardship and Leadership

Philanthropy offers one of the most effective ways to teach values, empathy, and leadership within a family. Whether through a donor-advised fund, family foundation, or shared charitable initiatives, giving becomes a hands-on experience that blends financial wealth with purpose.

Philanthropy naturally supports:

• Next-generation engagement
• Collaboration across age groups
• Early exposure to budgeting, evaluating causes, and making informed decisions
• A deeper understanding of the impact wealth can create

For many families, philanthropy becomes the training ground for tactical and meaningful family wealth stewardship.

Engaging Your Family in Purpose-Driven Wealth Planning

Purpose-driven planning brings clarity and connection to the entire family. When every generation understands the mission behind the wealth, they can contribute confidently and collaborate more meaningfully.

This stage of multi-generational wealth planning may include:

• Engaging in a family meeting
• Establishing a family mission or values statement
• Involving younger members in age-appropriate financial discussions
• Coordinating philanthropic efforts as a shared experience
• Creating a long-term vision for how wealth supports the lives and priorities of future generations

Families who plan together build stronger legacies, ones shaped not only by financial success, but by intention, unity, and purpose.

Start The Conversation

Connect with our team to design a multi-generational wealth strategy that reflects your values and prepares your family for the future.

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A review of November’s markets, including AI hyperscaler volatility, bond trends, and what to watch at the December Fed meeting.

November 2025 Market in Review: AI investment, Bond Performance, and Equity Markets

Month in Review

• The shifting economic outlook and renewed attention to the magnitude of artificial intelligence (AI) investment made for a volatile month for equity markets.
• US large caps managed to finish the month slightly in “the black” (S&P 500 TR Index; +0.25% in November), despite Technology stocks falling -4.3% during November (S&P 500 Information Technology Sector Index).
• The weakness in Technology stocks weighed on large cap growth stocks, which fell -1.81% during the month (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index), while large cap value stocks rose +2.66% in November (Russell 1000 Value TR Index).
• The shifting interest rate outlook was a tailwind to major bond markets, with the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond TR Index rising +0.62% during the month, taking 2025 returns to +7.46%.  

AI Hyperscalers Pullback

AI-related companies, including the so-called AI-“Hyperscalers”, sparked an increase in volatility and a pullback of -5% at one point for US large cap stocks in November. While pullbacks of this magnitude are very common, investors appear to be paying close attention to the rapid increase, and shifting make-up, of the capital expenditures on artificial intelligence technologies.

Magnificent 7 stocks, and particularly the smaller sub-set of Hyperscalers, are broadly defined as the market leaders in AI investment technologies. They have also powered the S&P 500 Index higher, as they become an increasingly large percentage of the index. To-date, these companies have had above-market earnings growth and reached an expected $500bn of capital expenditures in the next 12-months, having previously done so without significant use of debt and borrowing. That changed starting in September.

Since September, the Hyperscalers have issued nearly $90 billion of investment-grade bonds, more than they had sold over the previous 40 months. Investors are watching the shift from cash-flow funded to debt funded capital expenditures closely. It is important to note that earnings for these companies have largely kept up with share prices to-date; a difference from 1999-2000 when share prices rose rapidly ahead of earnings growth. However, given the highest concentration in over 50-years in the S&P 500 Index, investors continue to watch developments in artificial intelligence closely.

What’s on Deck for December?

• The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets December 9-10 where they will announce any changes to policy. At time of writing, financial markets are pricing a roughly 85% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut.  
• Investors continue to digest economic data following the end of the government shutdown. Some data releases over that period will not be released on a permanent basis.

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I’m thrilled to share that Confluence Financial Partners has been featured in the public television documentary All Access with Andy Garcia. This segment highlights how we provide wealth management in Pittsburgh and across surrounding areas, helping clients plan for the future and build a lasting legacy.

All Access with Andy Garcia is a program that shines a spotlight on innovative companies and the impact they make across various industries. The show provides a behind-the-scenes look at how organizations operate and create meaningful change.

In our segment, viewers will see how our wealth management services in Pittsburgh and beyond help clients balance living well today with preparing for tomorrow. From personalized financial planning to strategic investing and our commitment to providing high-quality service, our team helps to ensure each client’s portfolio reflects their unique goals and dreams. The segment also demonstrates our fiduciary commitment to act in every client’s best interest, helping demystify financial planning and showing how thoughtful guidance can enhance quality of life.

At Confluence, our goal is to help clients gain clarity and confidence in their financial lives while planning for the future they envision. Partnering with All Access with Andy Garcia gave us the opportunity to share how strategic planning, personalized guidance, and a focus on each client’s unique goals can create meaningful impact, both today and tomorrow.

Watch the Segment
The segment will be broadcast to public television affiliates starting mid-November 2025, with multiple airings across stations nationwide. I invite you to watch the Confluence segment and learn more about our approach to wealth management in Pittsburgh and beyond by visiting the All Access page.

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