NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Mon (03/16)	Tue (03/17)	Wed (03/18)	Thu (03/19)	Fri (03/20)	Sat (03/21)	Sun (03/22)	Mon (03/23)
Severe	Moderate	No Severe	No Thunder	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Watches

MDs

Outlooks

Fire

Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 16 Mar

Sig Severe Probabilities: 16 Mar

Tornado Probabilities: 16 Mar

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 16 Mar

Severe Hail Probabilities: 16 Mar

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 16 Mar

Significant Wind Probabilities: 16 Mar

Significant Hail Probabilities: 16 Mar

More climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


report time

Full-size plot here.

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2026 Watch Summaries

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Mar

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Mar

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Mar

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Mar

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600 PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Mar 12, 2026	Tornado: 0	Wind: 92	Hail: 0

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