Skip to content

ShayanDodge/FELINES-Lightning-Forecast

Repository files navigation

FELINES — Forecast of the Effects of Lightning IN Electrical Systems

Project Website License

FELINES is a research project aiming to design a preventive protection concept for electrical infrastructures by sensing electromagnetic fields generated during the early phases of lightning inception—in particular the Preliminary Breakdown Pulses (PBP)—and using them to predict whether the upcoming Return Stroke (RS) could be dangerous, enabling timely disconnection of vulnerable equipment.
The work combines PBP/RS modeling, electromagnetic field & coupling simulations, and machine learning for early classification (“dangerous RS” vs “not dangerous”).
More context is available on the project website and public deliverables (links below).

🔧 Installation & Setup

git clone https://github.com/ShayanDodge/FELINES-Lightning-Forecast.git
cd FELINES-Lightning-Forecast

📑 Table of Contents


📦 What the Repository Includes

📍 Phase 1 — Lightning Geolocation and Peak Current Estimation

  • Developing deep learning models trained on electromagnetic signals
  • Estimating lightning strike location
  • Regressing channel-based peak current

⚡ Phase 2 — Early-Stage Classification and Protection

  • This phase provides the physical and data-driven foundation for risk assessment and protection strategies
  • Machine learning–based classification of dangerous vs non-dangerous events
  • PBP and RS electromagnetic modeling
  • Field-to-line coupling simulations

⚠️ This repository currently contains the implementation of Phase 1 (Geolocation and Peak Current Estimation). Phase 2 (Early Classification and Protection Strategy) will be integrated in future releases.


📌 Phase 1 — First Case Study

This release corresponds to Phase 1 of the FELINES project, dedicated to lightning geolocation and peak current estimation from lightning-induced voltages on overhead lines.

The scientific foundations of this work are presented in:

Dodge, S.; Nicora, M.; Barmada, S.; Brignone, M.; Procopio, R.; Tucci, M.
“A deep learning based lightning location system.”
Electric Power Systems Research, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111437.
Read the article

📌 This repository implements, reproduces, and extends the methodology described in the above peer-reviewed publication. If you use this code, dataset, or results in your research, please cite the original article.

🌩 Project Vision

Rather than relying solely on conventional far-field Lightning Location Systems (LLS), FELINES introduces a line-integrated approach that infers lightning characteristics directly from voltage waveforms induced on overhead power lines.

The framework enables the estimation of:

  • Lightning strike coordinates (x, y)
  • Channel-base peak current (kA)

At its core, the system learns the physical-to-data mapping:

Induced Voltage Waveforms  →  {Strike Location (x, y), Peak Current}

📦 Repository Content

This repository provides the complete implementation of Phase 1, including datasets, models, and reproducible experimentation pipelines.

  • Simulation Datasets

    • Old Scenario — A benchmark 10-km single-conductor transmission line used to implement and compare the three proposed Deep Learning approaches (FFDM, FTDM, MTDM) under controlled conditions.
    • New Scenario — A realistic 2-km three-phase medium-voltage distribution system including surge arresters and nonlinear components. In this configuration, only the best-performing model (MTDM) is evaluated, following its superior benchmark results.
  • Deep Learning Architectures
    Full implementations of the best regression models:

    • MTDM — Modified Time Domain Method
      with MTDM selected as the reference model for the high-fidelity scenario.
  • Preprocessing and Feature Engineering Pipeline
    Signal conditioning, dimensionality reduction, and adaptive time-domain compression routines.

  • Training and Evaluation Framework
    10-fold cross-validation, performance metrics, and robustness analysis utilities ensuring full reproducibility of the published results.

📊 Datasets

The repository includes two simulated scenarios used for model development and validation:

Feature OLD SCENARIO — Benchmark Case NEW SCENARIO — Realistic Distribution Line
Line Configuration 10 km single-conductor transmission line 2 km three-phase MV distribution line
Voltage Sensors 2 sensors 2 sensors
Lightning Events 2000 simulated events 2000 simulated events
Samples per Waveform 2000 3701
Soil Conductivity 5 mS/m 1 mS/m
Surge Arresters Not included Installed every 250 m
Purpose Model comparison (FFDM, FTDM, MTDM) High-fidelity validation (MTDM only)

🧠 Implemented Methods

Three Deep Learning approaches are implemented and evaluated:

Method Domain Description
FFDM Frequency Domain Full-spectrum Fourier representation of voltage waveforms.
FTDM Time Domain Direct use of time-domain voltage samples.
MTDM Modified Time Domain Compressed time-domain representation with adaptive feature reduction.

⭐ Selected Model — MTDM (Best Performing)

The Modified Time Domain Method (MTDM) demonstrated the best overall accuracy and robustness.

Key characteristics:

  • Leading-zero removal (arrival-time normalization)
  • Adaptive non-uniform time-domain compression
  • Fully connected neural network
  • 3 hidden layers (74 neurons each)
  • 10-fold cross-validation

📈 Performance — New Scenario (MTDM)

The Modified Time Domain Method (MTDM) achieves the following results on the realistic distribution line scenario:

Metric Value
Average Location Error (ALE) 67.24 m
Peak Current Mean Absolute Error (MAE) 1.40 kA
Localization Accuracy ~70% of events with error < 50 m

🔍 Robustness Analysis

The model maintains stable performance under realistic perturbations:

✔ Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) — tested down to SNR = 25 dB
✔ Variations in soil conductivity (limited sensitivity observed)

🚀 Getting Started

1. Navigate to:
Phase 1 — Lightning Geolocation and Peak Current Estimation/
2. Choose:
- Old scenario
- New scenario
3. Follow the README inside each folder.

🔮 Next Steps — Phase 2

• Preliminary Breakdown Pulse (PBP) analysis
• Early classification of dangerous return strokes
• Protection-triggering strategy design
• Experimental validation on real networks

👥 Project Team

FELINES is developed by a multidisciplinary research team from University of Genoa (DITEN), University of Pisa (DESTEC), and University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”.

🇮🇹 University of Genoa — DITEN

Department of Naval, Electrical, Electronic and Telecommunication Engineering

Name Role ORCID
Renato Procopio Associate Professor [Profile]
Massimo Brignone Associate Professor [Profile]
Daniele Mestriner Researcher (RTD-A) [Profile]
Martino Nicora PhD Candidate [Profile]

🇮🇹 University of Pisa — DESTEC

Department of Energy, Systems, Territory and Construction Engineering

Name Role ORCID
Sami Barmada Full Professor [Profile]
Shayan Dodge Research Fellow [Profile], [ORCID]
Mauro Tucci Full Professor [Profile]

🇮🇹 University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”

Department of Engineering

Name Role ORCID
Alessandro Formisano Full Professor [Profile]
Ehsan Akbari Sekeh Ravani Research Fellow [Profile]

🤝 Acknowledgments

Supported by: Italian Ministry for Education, University, and Research (PRIN 2022) European Union — NextGenerationEU

About

FELINES is a predictive lightning protection system that detects Preliminary Breakdown Pulses (PBP) to forecast dangerous Return Strokes (RS) affecting electrical infrastructures. Combining electromagnetic modeling, and machine learning enables the preventive disconnection of vulnerable power and renewable energy systems before damage occurs.

Topics

Resources

License

Stars

Watchers

Forks

Packages

 
 
 

Contributors