I like the AFL, statistics (and to gamble). I always wondered if the over/under in a sportsbook should be rain dependent (rainy games feel slower). Turns out, yes, statistically rainfall during AFL (Australian Football League) matches is associated with lower total game scores, using 16 seasons of data (2010--2025). Maybe this is of some use to you before your next bet! (if it's not already priced in)

• 1,454 matches analysed across 16 AFL seasons with zero data gaps
• Dry games average 170.2 points; rainy games average 161.3 points --- a difference of 8.9 points
• Both Welch's t-test (p = 2.33 x 10^-5) and Mann--Whitney U (p = 1.43 x 10^-5) confirm the difference is highly statistically significant
• Cohen's d = 0.28 indicates a small but real effect size

Rain reliably lowers AFL total scores by roughly 9 points on average.

• Match data: Scraped from AFL Tables, which records date, time, venue and scores for every AFL match
• Weather data: Hourly precipitation from the Open-Meteo Historical Weather API for 10 Australian cities covering AFL venues

This project is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.