- Month-to-month contracts have a 42.7% churn rate vs just 2.8% for two-year contracts
- Fiber optic users churn at 41.9% — more than double DSL users (19%)
- Electronic check payers churn at 45.3%, far above other payment methods
- Customers without tech support or online security churn above 40%
- New customers (tenure < 5 months) are the most likely to leave
| Model | ROC AUC | Accuracy | Churn Recall | Churn Precision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logistic Regression | 0.821 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| Random Forest | 0.816 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| XGBoost (Baseline) | 0.805 | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| XGBoost (Tuned) | 0.811 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
- Two-year contract (strongest retention factor)
- Fiber optic internet service
- Electronic check payment method
- One-year contract
- Tenure (longer = less likely to churn)
