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A stock-flow consistent agent-based model (SFC-ABM) with 10,000 heterogeneous firms and 100,000 individual households across 6 sectors, calibrated to the Polish economy (GUS 2024). Six papers and 41,800+ Monte Carlo simulations exploring how universal basic income, monetary regimes, network topology, and household heterogeneity interact to produce phase transitions in automation adoption.
Phase diagram of AI adoption. Left: PLN regime shows reentrant transition — adoption peaks at BDP ~500 PLN then declines as inflation triggers NBP rate hikes. Right: EUR + SGP constraint confines adoption to a narrow island (BDP 1000–3000, low σ).
| # | Title | Sims | DOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Acceleration Paradox | 6,300 |  |
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| 2 | PLN vs EUR with SGP Constraint | 1,260 |  |
|
| 3 | Empirical CES σ Estimation | 120 |  |
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| 4 | Phase Diagram & Universality | 18,540 |  |
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| 5 | Endogenous Technology & Network Dynamics | 10,080 |  |
|
| 6 | Heterogeneous Households & Limits of UBI | 1,500 | pending |
Engine: core — reusable Scala 3 SFC-ABM engine
- Acceleration paradox — moderate UBI causes automation rather than responding to it; bimodal adoption at the critical point (Hartigan dip p = 1.7 × 10-5)
- Monetary sovereignty matters — PLN float permits the transition; EUR + Stability & Growth Pact kills it (SGP caps effective UBI at ~10 PLN by month 120)
- σ calibration doesn't — 5–9× change in CES elasticity shifts adoption by only 1.5 pp; monetary regime dominates (Δ 6 pp)
- Topology universality — BDPc = 500 PLN across all four network topologies (WS, ER, BA, lattice); mean-field critical exponent γ ≈ 1.0
- Endogenization preserves universality — Arthur-style learning + preferential rewiring keep the reentrant shape; BDPc shifts by at most 250 PLN
- Aggregate metrics mask destruction — BDPc = 500 appears as a "sweet spot" in aggregates but is the point of peak bankruptcy (17.3%), peak poverty (45%), and peak income Gini (0.50) at the household level
- Scarring catch-22 — unemployment erodes skills and health, making retraining least effective for those who need it most — even doubled intensity yields only 18% success
Bifurcation dynamics. PLN regime (left) exhibits a reentrant peak — adoption rises then falls as fiscal stimulus triggers monetary tightening. EUR regime (right) is capped by Maastricht fiscal rules.