Tervell [he/him]
- 619 Posts
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Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netOPto
music@hexbear.net•Deus Ex - 038 - Enemy Within - ConversationEnglish
2·2 years agoHow far in did you get? It’s definitely a rather janky game, but if you can put up with it there’s a lot to love (although it’s also surprisingly long, so it might overstay its welcome in some ways too). I feel like it gets smoother once you’re past the first few chapters and have a few augs and leveled-up skills to work with.
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 22nd to January 28th, 2024 - Iowa Caucus, Bigger AUKUS? - COTW: New Zealand/AotearoaEnglish
36·2 years agoMIC ghouls are somehow not satisfied with the massive amount of money they’re getting (archived)
No more ‘must-wins’: Defense firms growing warier of fixed-price deals
WASHINGTON — Lockheed Martin chief executive Jim Taiclet offered a warning during a quarterly earnings call this week, The government, he said, is putting too much risk on defense companies by flexing its muscle as the sole buyer of military hardware, and his firm is changing its approach. “We don’t have any must-win programs with Lockheed Martin anymore,” Taiclet said.
I, uh… what? Ah yes, the US government, famed for flexing its muscle against the private sector! Okay, I’m linking the damn nuclear missiles article post again, but it’s just such a good example of the actual reality that it’s the private sector flexing its muscles as sole supplier, rather than the other way around:
On 14 December 2019, it was announced that Northrop Grumman had won the competition to build the future ICBM. Northrop won by default, as their bid was at the time the only bid left to be considered for the GBSD program (Boeing had dropped out of the bidding contest earlier in 2019). The US Air Force said: “The Air Force will proceed with an aggressive and effective sole-source negotiation.” in reference to Northrop’s bid.
anyways, back to the new article
Taiclet was one of several defense industry executives who this week aired their angst about the government’s contracting practices. Many were particularly concerned about fixed-price contracts. Under these agreements, meant to secure the least risk for taxpayers, companies pick up the bill when costs run higher than expected. Such cases can be disastrous for defense firms — like Boeing’s $7 billion in overruns on a $4.9 billion contract for the KC-46, an Air Force tanker. Taiclet argued that, as the defense industry’s only customer in most cases, the Pentagon has enough sway to make its suppliers accept its terms.
Oh no, not the poor little multibillion dollar megacorporation! Maybe they should just… fail and go out of business, isn’t that what the free market’s all about? They should have just been a better company and not allowed costs to overrun, or analyzed the market better and gotten a more accurate estimate of the costs.
In an earlier interview with Defense News, though, acting deputy for industrial base policy Halimah Najieb-Locke said the department is reconsidering how often it uses fixed-price contracts, especially when it comes to companies that also work in the commercial market. … Despite the intent to save taxpayer money, she said, these contracts don’t account for changes in the market. Sometimes it makes sense for the Pentagon to pay more when that investment keeps a supplier in the market or to secure a supply chain, she said.
Here’s a secret little trick - if the government simply owns the arms manufacturing capabilities itself, it doesn’t have to worry about the companies that supply it going out of business or switching to serving a different market during a downturn in demand, and then not being able to buy all the shit it needs once a war starts approaching. By using the forbidden black magic spell called “economic planning”, it can simply keep that industry around, even if it isn’t strictly profitable, because it’s obviously incredibly strategically important and shouldn’t be left to the whims of the free market!
“So now we’re reverting to best value” contracting standards, which take into account more than just price, she said. … Lockheed wasn’t the only company this week signaling a change in how it approaches fixed-price contracts — and warning of exiting competitions if the conditions aren’t right. Northrop Grumman too said it has changed its approach to bidding on fixed-price deals where a mature design is not in place since 2015, when it won the contract to build the B-21 Raider stealth bomber. The service used a cost-plus structure for the Raider’s initial development phase, and a fixed-price structure for the low-rate initial production phase that began in the final quarter of 2023. … Northrop Grumman on Thursday announced a nearly $1.6 billion pre-tax charge on the B-21, which included $143 million in cost growth for the Raider’s first LRIP lot.
Besides passing on some fixed-price programs outright, Warden said, Northrop has also come back to the government with its own counter-offers. Sometimes, as in the case of Northrop’s counter-offer to the Space Development Agency on a second tranche of satellites to provide missile warning and tracking capabilities, the government passes, Warden said. “These are things that are going to happen, and we are going to remain disciplined,” Warden said. “We have plenty of opportunity in this company to grow. We have a strong pipeline of opportunities for pursuing, and a strong pipeline of opportunities that we believe have the right risk-reward balance.”
okay, so the government is “flexing its muscle as the sole buyer of military hardware”, and yet companies have “plenty of opportunity to grow” and a “strong pipeline of opportunities for pursuing”, so I guess the flexing isn’t doing much
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 22nd to January 28th, 2024 - Iowa Caucus, Bigger AUKUS? - COTW: New Zealand/AotearoaEnglish
39·2 years agowhoops, ship machine broke (archived)
when you’re the global hegemon, but you start running out of your capability to actually deploy globally and enforce your hegemony
Ship shortage forces Marines to consider alternate deployments
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Marine Corps is looking more closely at how to leverage alternate ships to keep its forces at sea, amid an amphibious ship shortage a top Marine called the “single biggest existential threat” to the service. Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, the deputy commandant for combat development and integration, told Defense News the Navy is seeking to improve amphib ship readiness and on-time maintenance. But with the Pentagon weighing whether to pause future amphibious ship production, he said the Marines are more serious than ever about using other kinds of ships, including the expeditionary sea base and the expeditionary fast transport. He said the expeditionary fast transport, or EPF, has been successfully used by Marines in the Pacific several times recently. It’s not tailor-made for amphibious missions, he noted in the Jan. 12 interview, but “we’re just going to have to make do.”
I love having to “make do” despite my military budget being over 870 billion!
In the Middle East, Heckl noted, the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit remains on station off Israel. But it’s been deployed since July and eventually must come home. When it does, there is no ready ARG on the East Coast to replace it. … As a result, in recent and upcoming deployments, the Marines are going to sea through nontraditional means. From September through December, the Marines moved the 11th MEU command element from the West Coast into the Pacific. … Because these Marines didn’t have the full Marine expeditionary unit capability onboard a full three-ship amphibious ready group, they had to rely on external aviation assets to get to and around the theater. But, Brodie said in a Jan. 19 interview, it allowed the Marine Corps to have a deterrent force at sea ahead of Taiwan’s Jan. 13 election, considered a period of heightened risk with China. In another example, Brodie said, the Boxer ARG on the West Coast will deploy with the 15th MEU in phases. Due to ship maintenance challenges, all three ships are not ready to deploy as planned; instead, the Somerset will leave in the coming days, with Boxer and Harpers Ferry departing California in the March timeframe. This allows the Marines to have some forces at sea now, even if the full ARG is not ready to go just yet.
Brodie said the Marines are seeking to ensure three MEUs are ready for operations at any given time, even if there isn’t an accompanying ARG available. “We’re working to do the best that we can do to get forces on a sea base; in the absence of that, we’re looking at other ways to have Marines forward for a fleet commander,” he said. Gen. Christopher Mahoney, the assistant commandant, said Jan. 25 during a Hudson Institute event that having three MEUs at sea on three fully ready ARGs is unlikely today. “What we will have is MEUs that are trained and ready,” he said. If there’s an urgent need to deploy them, “they may be conveyed by alternate means, they may be conveyed by the air. Not optimal, and not what they were designed to do.” … Brodie said putting Marines to sea on alternate ships is “feasible” but “not desired” because the expeditionary sea bases and expeditionary fast transports, while spacious, do not have all the aviation support, ammunition storage and other features of an amphibious ship.
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 22nd to January 28th, 2024 - Iowa Caucus, Bigger AUKUS? - COTW: New Zealand/AotearoaEnglish
29·2 years agosources say
would these be the same sources that talked about the water-filled missiles? anyway
“Basically, China says: ‘If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint’,” said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Well, good thing Ansar Allah aren’t doing that, and Chinese (and Russian) ships specifically seem to be going through just fine. Also, I think the rate of attacks was actually already slowing down anyway (since the effort was actually successful and deterred ships trading with Israel). If anything, Chinese interests might be served, rather than harmed, if this leads to shipping contracts being shifted from Western companies to Chinese ones.
The Chinese officials, however, did not make any specific comments or threats about how Beijing’s trading relationship with Iran could be affected if its interests were damaged by Houthi attacks, the four Iranian sources said.
So they didn’t say shit, “pressing” someone generally requires, you know, some kind of pressure. The title of the article is “China presses Iran”, but the text of it is “China tells Iran that the current situation is fine, let’s just make sure to keep it that way”
Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said on Thursday that Iran to date had not conveyed any message from China about scaling back attacks.
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 22nd to January 28th, 2024 - Iowa Caucus, Bigger AUKUS? - COTW: New Zealand/AotearoaEnglish
20·2 years agoyeah, when I first read the title I was really confused about when the hell did Nvidia get into the missile business
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 22nd to January 28th, 2024 - Iowa Caucus, Bigger AUKUS? - COTW: New Zealand/AotearoaEnglish
54·2 years agowhoops, missile machine broke (archived)
RTX Slow to Deliver Missiles to Defend US Carriers From China
RTX Corp. has fallen behind schedule delivering the Navy’s top air defense missile that’s meant to counter China’s “aircraft carrier killer” weapons, prompting a key House defense spending committee to block the Pentagon’s request for another $3.2 billion contract. RTX has delivered about half of the 625 Standard Missile-6 missiles required under a five-year, $1 billion contract from 2019, according to the Defense Contract Management Agency. This year, the Pentagon wants to buy another 825 of the missiles in a five-year deal from RTX, which changed its name from Raytheon Technologies in 2023.
The agency said supply-chain delays that began during the Covid-19 pandemic haven’t been fully resolved. “The extent to which those delays and cost impacts were fully within Raytheon’s control is not entirely clear,” DCMA said in a statement to Blomberg News. There have been delays of motors manufactured by Aerojet Rocketdyne and issues with third-tier suppliers all with unique challenges that new owner L3Harris Inc. is working to correct.
The SM-6 Block I/IA model is seen capable of intercepting China’s DF-21D missile, which is designed to attack US aircraft carriers, according to a US defense official who asked not to be identified discussing non-public information. RTX in a statement said its “in direct and frequent dialogue with Pentagon officials as well as congressional defense oversight committees to mitigate the delivery impact caused in large part by delays in solid rocket motor manufacturing.” The company is working with the Pentagon and Navy to find alternate sources for the motors, it said. Still, Rep. Ken Calvert, the California Republican who chairs the House defense appropriations committee, remains unconvinced. His panel has so far declined to approve the Pentagon’s next SM—6 procurement request, although the Senate panel has done so. The entire defense appropriations bill remains stalled on Capitol Hill.
“I believe there’s value in multi-year procurement when it’s appropriate, which is why the fiscal 2024 bill authorizes most of the other multi-year contracts requested,” he said in a statement. “But everything we approve has to be justified and scrutinized, and the fact is the performance on the previous multi-year contract for the SM-6 gives us concern” because it’s behind schedule, he said. L3Harris said that in the five months since closing on its Aerojet acquisition “we have continued investing in facility expansions and more efficient manufacturing processes, which have already led to increases in capacity for some key programs.”
The Navy’s top readiness official, Fleet Forces Command head Admiral Daryl Caudle, surprised attendees last January at a surface warfare symposium when he scolded the industry on lax delivery performance. “I need SM-6 delivered on time. I need MK-48 torpedoes delivered on time,” he said. Asked for an update, Caudle’s office said the SM-6 has marginally improved deliveries though it’s “not back to the required schedule.” The statement said the Navy and the Pentagon have “taken significant steps over the past year in support of this effort.”
you know, maybe if you want your military equipment delivered on time, you shouldn’t be reliant on the private sector for literally everything? critical support to the American capitalist class in their anti-imperialist struggle against their own country’s military

Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netOPto
history@hexbear.net•中国清代盔甲Chinese Qing dynasty armorEnglish
3·2 years agoyeah, it’s a type of brigandine, honestly one of the coolest types of armor out there (and possibly the origin of “studded leather” in fantasy RPGs, from people seeing pictures of just the outside and not realizing the studs are actually rivets holding metal plates in place on the inside)

Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 15th to January 21st, 2024 - International Clowns and Jesters - COTW: South AfricaEnglish
33·2 years agobut it could just be more grift
yeah, certainly possible. The previous article had this great bit:
The US Air Force said: “The Air Force will proceed with an aggressive and effective sole-source negotiation.” in reference to Northrop’s bid
I guess their “aggressive and effective negotiation” was to, uh, just give them even more money? Aggressively emptying my wallet to the guy mugging me.
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 15th to January 21st, 2024 - International Clowns and Jesters - COTW: South AfricaEnglish
48·2 years agoabsolutely hilarious (in a
sort of way) followup to my previous post about American ICBMs, holy shit (archived)Sentinel ICBM incurs ‘critical’ cost breach, at risk of cancellation without SECDEF certification
The Minuteman III replacement’s costs ballooned by 37 percent and will take about two years longer than expected as officials reportedly discover hidden complications of silo construction.
WASHINGTON — The Air Force’s replacement for its nuclear-tipped Minuteman III ballistic missile fleet has suffered a “critical” cost breach and could be delayed by as much as two years, a service spokesperson confirmed to Breaking Defense, a setback for the program that officials have long warned could run into trouble.
The service notified Congress Thursday that LGM-35A Sentinel “has exceeded its initial cost projections,” the spokesperson said, prompting what’s known as a Nunn-McCurdy breach. According to the spokesperson, the Sentinel program’s 2020 baseline program acquisition unit cost of $118 million per missile — the sum of development, construction and procurement — increased by “at least 37 percent” to approximately $162 million in 2020 dollars, prompting a “critical” breach that requires Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to certify the program to stave off its cancellation.
The $96 billion Sentinel program is now estimated at about $131.5 billion in current dollars, Bloomberg reported, a hefty sum driven by unforeseen complications with silo and launch center construction. The program’s current objective for initial operational capability (IOC) is June 2029, which the Air Force spokesperson said could be delayed by as much as two years as a result of the issues.
A top modernization effort for the Defense Department, the Sentinel program’s issues have already drawn congressional scrutiny. And with strong backing from lawmakers, it seems unlikely the program will be terminated. “Sentinel is absolutely necessary for the future of our nuclear deterrent. I’m committed to conducting vigorous oversight of the program and ensuring the Air Force follows through on making the necessary changes to address the cost overruns while continuing to advance the program,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala., said in a statement today. “The Department must ensure that Sentinel is ready in time to replace the current ICBMs before they reach the end of their lives. Failure is not an option,” he added.
Northrop Grumman, which won the Sentinel contract in 2020, has struggled with supply chain woes, workforce shortages and clearance issues, the Government Accountability Office warned in June 2023. Officials recently have also been vexed by the program’s challenges, with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall lamenting its “unknown unknowns.”
also to reiterate this bit from the previous post:
On 14 December 2019, it was announced that Northrop Grumman had won the competition to build the future ICBM. Northrop won by default, as their bid was at the time the only bid left to be considered for the GBSD program (Boeing had dropped out of the bidding contest earlier in 2019).
So there isn’t a backup plan here - the only company that can do this is struggling to do it. There was a discussion earlier in the thread about whether the US could restart its war machine, and, uh… maybe they straight up can’t? Like, we’re not talking about tanks or artillery shells here, these are ICBMs, a key element of nuclear deterrence, something considered necessary even in peacetime (at least by the ghouls in charge). I guess the Americans better hope the 14 nuclear ballistic subs they have still work… or adopt Jim Hacker thought
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
history@hexbear.net•Philip Agee - New General Megathread for the 18th and 19th of January 2024English
9·2 years agoyeah, Total Recall’s got some great guns, although I’m not sure if they were going exactly for the G11 here (that’s kind of blockier and chonkier, it’s like a rectangle with a scope and grip sticking out of the top and bottom, having a normal magazine kind of breaks the silhouette, but I guess there are a lot of limitation when working with existing props). The G11 was indeed featured in a lot of media as a “this is what we’ll be using in the future” gun, although it was more so video games since getting real G11s for a live-action production isn’t really an option. It, and the OICW too.
Total Recall has these awesome Pancor Jackhammer mock-ups as well:

older action movies in general often have a really great selection of guns, I much prefer it to all the tacticool shit of today. Like, did you know that the Half-Life MP5 with grenade launcher was actually a real thing (well, movie prop, from End of Days), they were on some wild shit:

Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 15th to January 21st, 2024 - International Clowns and Jesters - COTW: South AfricaEnglish
93·2 years agoI just got back from Ukraine, where I was visiting some friends. Everything we have heard about what’s happening in Ukraine is a lie. The reality is darker, bleaker, and unequivocally hopeless. There is no such thing as Ukraine “winning” this war.
- By their estimates, they have lost over one million of their sons, fathers and husbands; an entire generation is gone.
Nazis and destroying the demographics of their own people, name a better duo
- Even in the Southwest, where the anti-Russian sentiment is long-standing, citizens are reluctant or straight-up scared to publicly criticize Zelensky; they will go to jail.
- In every village and town, the streets, shops, and restaurants are mostly absent of men.
- The few men who remain are terrified of leaving their homes for fear of being kidnapped into conscription. Some have resorted to begging friends to break their legs to avoid service.
- Army search parties take place early in the morning, when men leave their homes to go to work. They ambush and kidnap them off the streets and within 3-4 hours they get listed in the army and taken away straight to the front lines with minimal or no training at all; it is “a death sentence.”
- It’s getting worse every day. Where I was staying, a dentist had just been taken by security forces on his way to work, leaving behind two small children. Every day, 3-5 dead bodies keep arriving from the front lines.
- Mothers and wives fight tooth and nail with the armed forces, beg and plead not to have their men taken away. They try bribing, which sometimes works, but most of the time they are met with physical violence and death threats.
- The territory celebrated as having been “won back” from Russia has been reduced to rubble and is uninhabitable. Regardless, there is no one left to live there and displaced families will likely never return.
- They see the way the war has been reported, at home and abroad. It’s a “joke” and “propaganda.” They say: “Look around: is this winning?”.
- Worse, some have been hoaxed into believing that once Ukrainians forces are exhausted, American soldiers will come in to replace them and “win the war”.
There is no ambiguity in these people. The war was for nothing - a travesty. The outcome always was, and is, clear. The people are hopeless, utterly destroyed, and living in an unending nightmare. They are pleading for an end, any end - most likely the same “peace” that could have been achieved two years ago. In their minds, they have already lost, for their sons, fathers and husbands are gone, and their country has been destroyed. There is no “victory” that can change that.
Except the peace offer then (see under the The Objectives and Strategy of Russia section) was incredibly favorable for Ukraine (and naive on Russia’s part), basically just security guarantees and no NATO membership, without any territorial changes. That ain’t happening anymore.
Make no mistake, they are angry with Putin. But they are also angry with Zelensky and the West. They have lost everything, worst of all, hope and faith, and cannot comprehend why Zelenky wishes to continue the current trajectory, the one of human devastation. I didn’t witness the war; but what I saw was absolutely heart-breaking. Shame on the people, regardless of their intentions, who have supported this war. And shame on the media for continuing to lie about it.

also lmao at the fucking community note

um actually the US says that only a few Ukrainians have died (based on propaganda fed to them by the Ukrainians)
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 15th to January 21st, 2024 - International Clowns and Jesters - COTW: South AfricaEnglish
12·2 years agoshort not due to a military defeat, but by a financial defeat by sanctions
I think it’s this, combined with believing in GDP as an accurate indicator for economic strength - they really overestimated the effect of sanctions, and underestimated Russian manufacturing capacity (hence the endless “Russia is running out of X” articles, they were supposed to be running out of missiles, of tanks, of artillery shells…). And given the stuff we’re seeing now in the Middle East, such an extreme degree of hubris doesn’t seem all that bold of an assumption.
If Western countries expected this to be a long, attritional conflict, they presumably would have tried to significantly scale up their arms manufacturing, since Ukraine can’t last long without their aid - instead, ammunition prices have increased. Maybe there were some people in NATO who understood this problem, but the modern neoliberal state simply doesn’t seem to be capable of actually addressing it, and can only hope that its wars are short ones.
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 15th to January 21st, 2024 - International Clowns and Jesters - COTW: South AfricaEnglish
28·2 years agoUkrainian Strategy
spoiler
The strategic objective of Volodymyr Zelensky and his team is to join NATO, as a prelude to a brighter future within the EU. It complements that of the Americans (and therefore of the Europeans). The problem is that tensions with Russia, particularly over Crimea, are causing NATO members to put off Ukraine’s participation. … What is more, [Zelensky] knows that his ultra-nationalist allies will refuse to negotiate with Russia. This was confirmed by Praviy Sektor leader Dmitro Yarosh, who openly threatened him with death in the Ukrainian media a month after his election. Zelensky therefore knew from the start of the election campaign that he would not be able to fulfill his promise of reconciliation, and that there was only one solution left: confrontation with Russia. But this confrontation could not be waged by Ukraine alone against Russia, and it would need the material support of the West. The strategy devised by Zelensky and his team was revealed before his election in March 2019 by Oleksei Arestovitch, his personal advisor … Not only did he explain that this conflict was unavoidable if Ukraine is to join NATO, but he also placed this confrontation in 2021-2022! He outlined the main areas of Western aid: In this conflict, we will be very actively supported by the West. Weapons. Equipment. Assistance. New sanctions against Russia. Most likely, the introduction of a NATO contingent. A no-fly zone, and so on. In other words, we won’t lose it.
As we can see, this strategy has much in common with the one described by the RAND Corporation at the same time. So much so, in fact, that it is hard not to see it as a strategy strongly inspired by the United States. … A few months later, however, it became clear that the equipment supplied to Ukraine was not sufficient to ensure the success of its counter-offensive, and Zelensky asked for additional, better-adapted equipment. At this point, there was a certain amount of Western irritation at these repeated demands. Former British Defense Minister Ben Wallace declared that Westerners “are not Amazon.” In fact, the West does not respect its commitments. Contrary to what our media and pseudo-military experts tell us, since February 2022, it has been clear that Ukraine cannot defeat Russia on its own. As Obama put it, “Russia [there] will always be able to maintain its escalation dominance.” In other words, Ukraine will only be able to achieve its goals with the involvement of NATO countries. This means that its fate will depend on the goodwill of Western countries. So, we need to maintain a narrative that encourages the West to keep up this effort. This narrative will then become what we call, in strategic terms, its “center of gravity.”
The West, expecting a short conflict, is no longer able to maintain the effort promised to Ukraine. The NATO summit in Vilnius (July 11-12, 2023) ended in partial success for Ukraine. Its membership is postponed indefinitely. Its situation is even worse than it was at the beginning of 2022, since there is no more justification for its entry into NATO than there was before the SMO. … Thus, the Ukrainian notion of “victory” rapidly evolved. The idea of a “collapse of Russia” quickly faded, as did that of its dismemberment. There was talk of “regime change,” which Zelensky made his objective by forbidding any negotiations as long as Vladimir Putin was in power. Then came the reconquest of lost territories, thanks to the counter-offensive of 2023. But here, too, hopes quickly faded. The plan was simply to cut the Russian forces in two, with a thrust towards the Sea of Azov. But by September 2023, this objective had been reduced to the liberation of three cities.
In the absence of concrete successes, narrative remains the only element Ukraine can rely on to maintain Western attention and willingness to support it. For, as Ben Wallace, ex-Defence Minister, put it in The Telegraph on October 1, 2023: “The most precious commodity is hope.” True enough. But Western appraisal of the situation must be based on realistic analyses of the adversary. However, since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, Western analyses have been based on prejudice.
The Notion of Victory
spoiler
As we saw during the battle of Bakhmut, the Russians adapted perfectly to the strategy imposed on Ukraine by the West, which prioritizes the defense of every square meter. The Ukrainians thus played into the hands of the attrition strategy officially announced by Russia. Conversely, in Kharkov and Kherson, the Russians preferred to cede territory in exchange for the lives of their men. In the context of a war of attrition, sacrificing potential in exchange for territory, as Ukraine is doing, is the worst strategy of all. This is why General Zaluzhny, commander of the Ukrainian forces, tried to oppose Zelensky and proposed withdrawing his forces from Bakhmut. But in Ukraine, it is the Western narrative that guides military decisions. … The Ukrainian conflict was inherently asymmetrical. The West wanted to turn it into a symmetrical conflict, proclaiming that Ukraine’s capabilities could be enough to topple Russia. But this was clearly wishful thinking from the outset, and its sole purpose was to justify non-compliance with the Minsk Agreements. Russian strategists have turned it into an asymmetrical conflict.
Ukraine’s problem in this conflict is that it has no rational relationship with the notion of victory. By comparison, the Palestinians, who are aware of their quantitative inferiority, have switched to a way of thinking that gives the simple act of resisting a sense of victory. This is the asymmetrical nature of the conflict that Israel has never managed to understand in 75 years, and which it is reduced to overcoming through tactical superiority rather than strategic finesse. In Ukraine, it is the same phenomenon. By clinging to a notion of victory linked to the recovery of territory, Ukraine has locked itself into a logic that can only lead to defeat. On November 20, 2023, Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, painted a gloomy picture of Ukrainian prospects for 2024. His speech showed that Ukraine had neither a plan to emerge from the conflict, nor an approach that would associate a sense of victory with that emergence: he was reduced to linking Ukraine’s victory to that of the West. In the West, however, the end of the conflict in Ukraine is increasingly perceived as a military, political, human and economic debacle.
In an asymmetrical situation, each protagonist is free to define his or her own criteria for victory, and to choose from a range of criteria under his or her control. This is why Egypt (1973), Hezbollah (2006), the Islamic State (2017), the Palestinian resistance since 1948 and Hamas in 2023 are victorious, despite massive losses. This seems counter-intuitive to a Western mind, but it is what explains why Westerners are unable to really “win” their wars. In Ukraine, the political leadership has locked itself into a narrative that precludes a way out of the crisis without losing face. The asymmetrical situation now working to Ukraine’s disadvantage stems from a narrative that has been confused with reality, and has led to a response that is ill-suited to the nature of the Russian operation.
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 15th to January 21st, 2024 - International Clowns and Jesters - COTW: South AfricaEnglish
45·2 years agonot news exactly, but interesting article (well, excerpt from a book) with some insight on the Ukraine war, and more broadly about the difference between the Soviet/Russian and Western approaches to war (archived)
The Russian Art of War: How the West Led Ukraine to Defeat
Throughout the Cold War period, the Soviet Union saw itself as the spearhead of a historical struggle that would lead to a confrontation between the “capitalist” system and “progressive forces.” This perception of a permanent and inescapable war led the Soviets to study war in a quasi-scientific way, and to structure this thinking into an architecture of military thought that has no equal in the Western world. The problem with the vast majority of our so-called military experts is their inability to understand the Russian approach to war. It is the result of an approach we have already seen in waves of terrorist attacks—the adversary is so stupidly demonized that we refrain from understanding his way of thinking. As a result, we are unable to develop strategies, articulate our forces, or even equip them for the realities of war. The corollary of this approach is that our frustrations are translated by unscrupulous media into a narrative that feeds hatred and increases our vulnerability. We are thus unable to find rational, effective solutions to the problem.
The way Russians understand conflict is holistic. In other words, they see the processes that develop and lead to the situation at any given moment. … The reason the Russians are better than the West in Ukraine is that they see the conflict as a process; whereas we see it as a series of separate actions. … That is why we place the start of the conflict on February 24, 2022, or the start of the Palestinian conflict on October 7, 2023. We ignore the contexts that bother us and wage conflicts we do not understand.
Correlation of Forces
spoiler
This [holistic] approach is materialized by the concept of “correlation of forces” (Соотношение сил). Often translated as “balance of forces” or “ratio of forces,” this concept is only understood by Westerners as a quantitative quantity, limited to the military domain. In Soviet thinking, however, the correlation of forces reflected a more holistic reading of war:
- In the economic sphere, the factors usually compared are gross national product per capita, labor productivity, the dynamics of economic growth, the level of industrial production, particularly in high-tech sectors, the technical infrastructure of the production tool, the resources and degree of qualification of the workforce, the number of specialists and the level of development of theoretical and applied sciences.
- In the military field, the factors compared are the quantity and quality of armaments, the firepower of the armed forces, the fighting and moral qualities of the soldiers, the level of staff training, the organization of the troops and their combat experience, the character of the military doctrine and the methods of strategic, operative and tactical thinking.
- In the political sphere, the factors that come into consideration are the breadth of the social base of state authority, its organization, the constitutional procedure for relations between the government and legislative bodies, the ability to take operational decisions, and the degree and character of popular support for domestic and foreign policy.
- Finally, when assessing the strength of the international movement, the factors taken into consideration are its quantitative composition, its influence with the masses, its position in the political life of each country, the principles and norms of relations between its components and the degree of their cohesion.
In other words, the assessment of the situation is not limited to the balance of forces on the battlefield, but takes into account all the elements that have an impact on the evolution of the conflict. Thus, for their Special Military Operation, the Russian authorities had planned to support the war effort through the economy, without moving to a “war economy” regimen. Thus, unlike in Ukraine, there was no interruption in the tax and welfare mechanisms. … The inclusion of the correlation of forces in the decision-making process is a fundamental difference from Western decision-making processes, which are linked more to a policy of communication than to a rational approach to problems. This explains, for example, Russia’s limited objectives in the Ukraine, where it does not seek to occupy the entire territory, as the correlation of forces in the western part of the country would be unfavorable.
Consider all the factors that directly or indirectly influence the conflict. Conversely, as we have seen in Ukraine and elsewhere, Westerners have a much more political reading of the war, and end up mixing the two. This is why communication plays such an essential role in the conduct of war: the perception of the conflict plays an almost more important role than its reality. This is why, in Iraq, the Americans literally invented episodes that glorified their troops.
the The Special Military Operation in Ukraine section has an overview of the events leading up to the war, going over the initial events in 2014 and subsequent Ukrainian aggression, but it’s pretty long so I’m not going to directly quote here
The Objectives and Strategy of Russia
spoiler
The problem is that our “experts” themselves define Russia’s objectives according to what they imagine, only to be able to say that it has not achieved them. So. Let us get back to the facts. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its “Special Military Operation” (SMO) in Ukraine “at short notice.” In his televised address, Vladimir Putin explained that its strategic objective was to protect the population of Donbass. This objective can be broken down into two parts: “demilitarize” the Ukrainian armed forces regrouped in the Donbass in preparation for the offensive against the DPR and LPR; and “denazify” (i.e. “neutralize”) the ultra-nationalist and neo-Nazi paramilitary militias in the Mariupol area.
The formulation chosen by Vladimir Putin has been very poorly analyzed in the West. It is inspired by the 1945 Potsdam Declaration, which envisaged the development of defeated Germany according to four principles: demilitarization, denazification, democratization and decentralization. The Russians understand war from a Clausewitzian perspective: war is the pursuit of politics by other means. This then means that they seek to transform operational successes into strategic successes, and military successes into political objectives. So, while the demilitarization evoked by Putin is clearly linked to the military threat to the populations of the Donbass in application of the decree of March 24, 2021, signed by Zelensky … this objective conceals a second: the neutralization of Ukraine as a future NATO member. … Zelensky’s proposal served as the basis for the Istanbul Communiqué of March 29, 2022, a ceasefire agreement as a prelude to a peace agreement. … In essence, Russia agreed to withdraw to the borders of February 23, 2022, in exchange for a ceiling on Ukrainian forces and a commitment not to become a NATO member, along with security guarantees from a number of countries…. Two conclusions can be drawn:
- Russia’s objective was not to conquer territory. If the West had not intervened to push Zelensky to withdraw his offer, Ukraine would probably still have its army.
- While the Russians intervened to ensure the security and protection of the population of the Donbass, their SMO enabled them to achieve a broader objective, which involves Russia’s security.
The problem is that Ukrainian and Western analysis is fueled by their own narratives. The conviction that Russia will lose has meant that no alternative contingency has been prepared. In September 2023, the West, beginning to see the collapse of this narrative and its implementation, tried to move towards a “freeze” in the conflict, without taking into account the opinion of the Russians, who dominate on the ground. Yet Russia would have been satisfied with a situation such as that proposed by Zelensky in March 2022. What the West wants in September 2023 is merely a pause until an even more violent conflict breaks out, after Ukrainian forces have been rearmed and reconstituted.
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 8th to January 14th, 2024 - The Regional War Begins; US and UK Airstrike YemenEnglish
30·2 years agowhat expertise either in machining or organisation actually remains to guarantee that gets done
there was another article I recently found about nuclear missiles, and, uh… the “remaining expertise” situation is not looking good, in fact it’s heading into Warhammer 40k territory
“We can’t do it at all. … That thing is so old that, in some cases, the drawings don’t exist anymore [to guide upgrades],” Richard said in a Zoom conference sponsored by the Defense Writers Group. Where the drawings do exist, “they’re like six generations behind the industry standard,” he said, adding that there are also no technicians who fully understand them. “They’re not alive anymore.”
also another one about steel manufacturing, with the amazing bit that the US has taken like 13 years to start thinking about planning about starting to manufacture some ships that they needed. As for expertise and machining…
The machinery and skills to build the hulls of most oceangoing vessels aren’t sufficient for the specialized icebreakers. The hull plates need a bespoke alloy and specialized heat-treatment, with a process to form and weld massive curved plates. … In addition to the technical challenge, American yards are reckoning with a shortage of shipwrights. Employment in ship and boat building totaled just 154,800 in July after peaking at 1.3 million during World War II, according to data from the Federal Reserve.
The thing about the “Arsenal of Democracy” is that the US actually had a lot of elements of economic planning during WW2 - not on the level of the Soviets, but still, there was a whole lot of government intervention, which I simply don’t believe can be replicated under neoliberalism. The real economy isn’t like an RTS video game - “injection of capital” doesn’t magically transform into real workers and factories.
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 8th to January 14th, 2024 - The Regional War Begins; US and UK Airstrike YemenEnglish
45·2 years agotwitter thread about lacking US missile capabilities (nitter alt)
The United States has approximately 3500 Tomahawk missiles on hand - so few that at-sea reloading capability is pointless because in the event of war the USN will actually run out of missiles before it runs out of launchers.
First of all, the Tomahawk is an old system and has been manufactured in several blocks since its introduction in the 1980s. Block II missiles have long since been taken out of service and Block III missiles appear to have left service recently - the only models currently in use are Block IV (produced since 2004) and Block V (remanufactured Block IV missiles “produced” since 2021).
Now let’s apply this data to operations. This is almost entirely a naval missile, although there is some work to bring back a surface-fired capability that once existed in the 1980s. The USN has 73 Arleigh Burke-class missile destroyers and 13 Ticonderoga-class missile cruisers in service, as well as 4 converted Ohio-class cruise missile submarines and 48 nuclear attack submarines with VLS silos. Obviously the surface units will fill only a portion of their silos with land attack missiles - I understand the load is generally 32 missiles (graphic courtesy Sal Mercogliano). The attack subs have 12 tubes each and the SSGNs have 154 tubes each, all loaded with Tomahawks. As such to completely load the USN battle force with Tomahawks requires 3,944 missiles. There is thus a shortfall of some 500 missiles, which makes sense given that a portion of the USN battle fleet is in the yard at any given point in time and cannot be made ready to sail even in an emergency.
Now to the question of reloading VLS tubes at sea, a capability which the USN got rid of in the mid-1990s when it was rapidly drawing down after the Cold War and the writing was very much on the wall about how much ammunition Congress was willing to fund going forward. The takeaway here is that the United States Navy doesn’t “need” an at-sea VLS reload capability because our current policy appears to be to only buy enough missiles to fill the Navy’s magazines once. There will be nothing to reload the silos with, at least in the immediate term, so including extra equipment to do it at sea would be pointless.
As a final aside, given that Tomahawk production since 2021 seems to have been remanufactured rather than new missiles, I have questions about whether the US actually retains the capability to make new missiles of this type.
a comment points out:
Um so did the USN burn like 3% of their tomahawks bombing targets previously bombed for 8 years …
critical support to the US military in its valiant anti-imperialist effort to disarm… itself?
Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netto
news@hexbear.net•Bulletins and News Discussion from January 8th to January 14th, 2024 - The Regional War Begins; US and UK Airstrike YemenEnglish
52·2 years agoRussia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag
spoiler
The Ukrainian soldier stared at the Russian tank. It was destroyed over a year ago in the country’s east and now sat far from the front line. He shrugged and cut into its rusted hull with a gas torch. The soldier was not there for the tank’s engine or turret or treads. Those had already been salvaged. He was there for its thick armor. The metal would be cut and strapped as protection to Ukrainian armored personnel carriers defending the embattled town of Avdiivka, around 65 miles away.
Ukraine’s military prospects are looking bleak. Western military aid is no longer assured at the same levels as years past. Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive in the south, where Jaeger was wounded days after it began, is over, having failed to meet any of its objectives. And now, Russian troops are on the attack, especially in the country’s east. The town of Marinka has all but fallen. Avdiivka is being slowly encircled. A push on Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, is expected. Farther north, outside Kupiansk, the fighting has barely slowed since the fall. The joke among Ukrainian troops goes like this: The Russian army is not good or bad. It is just long. The Kremlin has more of everything: more men, ammunition and vehicles. And they are not stopping despite their mounting numbers of wounded and dead.
classic Nazi complaint that the enemy’s only winning because of superior numbers :pit:
“The Russian advantage at this stage is not decisive, but the war is not a stalemate,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine. “Depending on what happens this year, particularly with western support for Ukraine, 2024 will likely take one of two trajectories. Ukraine could retake the advantage by 2025, or it could start losing the war without sufficient aid.”
JUST ONE MORE AID PACKAGE DUDE, I promise just a little more military aid and Putin’s done for!
For now, Ukraine is in a perilous position. The problems afflicting its military have been exacerbated since the summer. Ukrainian soldiers are exhausted by long stretches of combat and shorter rest periods. The ranks, thinned by mounting casualties, are only being partly replenished, often with older and poorly trained recruits. One Ukrainian soldier, part of a brigade tasked with holding the line southwest of Avdiivka, pointed to a video he took during training recently. The instructors, trying to stifle their laughs, were forced to hold up the man, who was in his mid-50s, just so he could fire his rifle. The man was crippled from alcoholism, said the soldier, insisting on anonymity to candidly describe a private training episode.

The shortage of troops is only one part of the problem. The other and currently more pressing issue is Ukraine’s dwindling ammunition reserves as continued Western supplies remain anything but certain. Ukrainian commanders now have to ration their ammunition, not knowing whether every new shipment might be their last. At the end of 2023, members of a Ukrainian artillery crew from the 10th Brigade sat inside a bunker nestled into a bare tree line in the country’s east, their Soviet-era 122-millimeter howitzer draped in camouflage netting and leafless branches. Only when a truck carrying two artillery shells arrived could the crew get to work for the first time in days. They quickly loaded the shells and fired toward Russian soldiers attacking Ukrainian positions three miles away. “Today we had two shells, but some days we don’t have any in these positions,” said the crew’s commander, who goes by the call sign Monk. “The last time we fired was four days ago, and that was only five shells.”
“I have two tanks, but only five shells,” said Italian, as he walked through a denuded tree line splintered by shelling about 500 yards from Russian positions in the Luhansk region. “It’s a bad situation now, especially in Avdiivka and Kupiansk.”
Even the tranche of United States-supplied cluster munitions, controversial because they harm civilians long after a war’s end, has lost some of its potency on the battlefield. “Initially in September, we could hit large groups, but now they assault in much smaller units,” said the platoon commander, who was fighting outside Bakhmut. He added that the Russians have made their trenches even deeper and harder to hit. Outside Avdiivka, where Russian forces are concentrating much of their forces in the east, the rumble of artillery on one recent afternoon was almost nonstop. It was a soundtrack not heard since the war’s earlier months, when Russian paramilitary forces assaulted Bakhmut, eventually capturing it.
Washington’s suggestion for Ukraine to go on the defensive in 2024 will mean little if Kyiv does not have the ammunition or people to defend what territory it currently holds, analysts have said.
not bows by themselves, but I’ve got guys with bows (although I think “compound bow” specifically refers to those fancy modern bows, I don’t have anything with those - did you mean recurve bows?):



from the author’s twitter bio:
history/yuri artist
all my characters are very gay

























Yeah, the beginning can be pretty difficult, the problem is that you’re mostly resigned to slowly crawling behind guys and bonking them with the baton or prod (unless you exploit the jank to your advantage) - later on, when you’ve accumulated some guns, leveled a weapon skill up to Advanced, and installed some augmentations you’ll be a lot more flexible, both in stealth and in combat. Liberty Island can also be quite overwhelming as a first level, they really expect you to have played the separate tutorial level first.
You could also look into mods - normally I’d suggest staying vanilla for a first playthrough, but if you’ve already bounced off it a few times it might be worthwhile to try.