Making sense of the week which was

26th April 2026

What, if anything, is the constitutional and legal significance of the fall-out from the Starmer-Robbins matter?

From a political perspective this last week or so in the United Kingdom has certainly been exciting and dramatic.

As set out in the last post here, we have a Prime Minister making a succession of bad decisions, and blaming and sacking others for those decisions.

In particular, we have a Prime Minister who speaks often about process sacking a senior foreign office official without any process whatsoever.

And as I have described at Prospect, that sacking by a Prime Minister who demands of the civil service that things are ‘delivered’ was of an official who worked out a way of ‘delivering’ the appointment of an Ambassador which the Prime Minister, against cabinet secretary advice, had publicly announced prematurely.

This is all a fascinating political spectacle.

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But.

So what?

What is the legal or constitutional significance of what has happened – and what is happening?

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From a lega(isitc) perspective not much: the overall result of the vetting (as opposed to the personal information vetted) was probably legally open to Olly Robbins to share with the Prime Minister. But there was also no legal obligation on him to share that information either. We are dealing here with discretion and policy, not rules and obligations.

What Robbins did and did not do with the vetting assessment was probably neither lawful nor unlawful, for it was not a matter of law.

(There is, of course, an important legal point about the dismissal of Robbins – and it is difficult to imagine a stronger case for unfair dismissal in this sort of context.)

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Constitutionally, there is an interesting point here about whether it was appropriate for a senior official charged with making this decision to not share the Cabinet Office vetting assessment with the Prime Minister.

Usually, the information about ambassadorial vetting stays with the head of the foreign office civil service, and one can see the point of that with career diplomats.

But when the appointment is external and essentially political and (publicly) directed by the Prime Minister then there is a good argument that the official should place the Prime Minister in the position they should be so as to be properly accountable to Parliament (and the public) for that decision. And there is a strong argument that, by omission, the Prime Minister should not be misled as the vetting exercise.

Yet, when one has an incurious Prime Minister, not asking the appropriate questions and who demands ‘delivery’ – of solutions, not problems – one can begin to see why what happened, happened.

(A follower of this blog messaged to say that Starmer always wanting ‘delivery’ to be both without impediments but also error-free, is about Starmer’s own ‘cake-ism’.)

Add the (fair) security concerns that sensitive information not have wider circulation that necessary, you can see why Robbins did what he did (and did not do), especially as Downing Street is leaky.

Indeed, the only actual security breach in all this is that the media and the public even know about the Ambassador’s vetting failure by means of a leak. For that information to be in the public domain in this manner indicates a serious security breach somewhere.

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As the Prime Minister has now said at the despatch box both that the original decision was wrong and that his decision to sack Robbins was right, one could perhaps say that the constitutional aspect of this matter is being addressed.

He has accounted to Parliament, and he is still in office – and he has not and is not facing any vote of no confidence.

As I stated at the time at Prospect, the real constitutional importance in all this lays in the House of Commons vote earlier this year that the Prime Minister and Cabinet could not be trusted to make decisions about the the applicability of the ‘national security’ exemption to the release of the Mandelson appointment documents. Those decisions were instead to be made by a parliamentary committee.

For Parliament to decide not to trust the Prime Minister and Cabinet in this way on national security was, in any meaningful way, a vote of no confidence. For this blog, that was the point the Prime Minister ought to have resigned.

Now the Prime Minister is dealing with the direct and indirect consequences of that vote: the placing into the public domain of documents beyond his control – and the prior (perhaps tactical?) leaking of sensitive information in respect of the documents that may be disclosed.

This is an actual example of a Prime Minister who is in office, but not in power – at least in respect of the Mandelson papers.

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There may be further disclosures in this news story which does not seem to be going away.

At some point a constitutional point may be taken, and a vote of no confidence is put forward. Alternatively, the Prime Minister may lose the confidence of his own cabinet and offer his own resignation (or plan for departure). Who knows.

But what is certain is that this matter shows how a Prime Minister can be held to account for a bad decision which they made – and for a bad decision for which they are now running out of other people to blame and sack.

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Robbins Nest

22nd April 2026

Towards understanding an almighty mess

There was once a bad decision, and then there was a worse decision, and then there was an even worse decision.

The bad decision was, of course, the appointment by the Prime Minister to appoint Lord Mandelson as Ambassador to the United States. At the time few expressly objected and some saw merit in such a sui generis appointment to deal with a sui generis President – a Trump Whisperer. (Though we had a perfectly competent Ambassador in place who was good at that too.)

The worse decision was how the Prime Minister opted to react when information was published about Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein. He blamed Mandelson for lying, he blamed the civil servants for not telling him about a vetting exercise. He was “furious”. His chief of staff was sacked. He decided it was everybody’s fault, but his own.

And then there was the worst of the decisions, at least from the perspective of his overall credibility. He sacked Oliver Robbins, the head of the foreign office civil service. This has not only poisoned the civil service against a serving premier, but also Robbins’ evidence before a select committee persuasively shows that Robbins and the Foreign Office were simply seeking to find a way to implement a decision which the Prime Minister had prematurely announced (against civil service advice) and which Number 10 staff were pressing (bullying?) the Foreign Office to approve without delay.

The Prime Minister accepts there was a process in place which Robbins followed: that is why the process has been changed. But he sacked Robbins for following that process which he accepts was in place.

And now Robbins can explain, from the outside, what happened.

Had the Prime Minister just owned the original bad decision – which as this blog has previously stated was his own decision – instead of blaming and sacking others, then the second and third mistakes would not have been made.

One can only wonder what further mistakes are to come.

Once this blog has fully digested the Robbins evidence yesterday, there may be more to come on here, at least.

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The decision of a Prime Minister

19 April 2026

Only one person decided to appoint Lord Mandelson

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Once upon a time there was a ruler who made a bad decision.

All the courtiers and servants knew it was a bad decision, but they put into effect the bad decision, for the ruler had already made and proclaimed the decision.

And when it turned out to be a very bad decision indeed, those courtiers and servants were sacked by the now “furious” ruler.

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When the current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom makes a bad decision it always seems that others must take the blame.

Of course, such shruggery is not unusual in politics: one does not usually become a Prime Minister by being the sort that resigns from jobs. That is not how one climbs what Disraeli called the greasy pole to Prime Ministerial office.

But when Keir Starmer appointed Lord Mandelson as ambassador to the United States (thereby sacking a perfectly capable ambassador), it was very much his decision.

A decision which only the Prime Minister could make.

View differ on the reason for the appointment. Perhaps the sui generis problem of President Trump needed a sui generis appointment of a “Trump-Whisperer”. Perhaps, as many political journalists aver, it was simply because it was believed by senior Labour politicians that Mandelson somehow deserved a job in return for something or other.

The reason, however, really does not matter: it was plain that the Prime Minister had made a decision, and it was a decision announced as soon as possible.

And this is the important thing: it was the decision of the Prime Minister.

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Yet it is others who are having to resign: the ambassador, the chief of staff, and now the head official at the foreign office.

We do not have full information as to the vetting process (and it is itself a remarkable security failure that we all know as much about this vetting process as we do, if you think about it).

It may be there was some form of communication between the foreign office and Downing Street, even if deft or unspoken, or it may be that the foreign office did not pass on the results of the vetting process so to give effect to the Prime Minister had already and publicly decided.

In either case, the responsibility for the decision is with the Prime Minister.

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But the Prime Minister does not want to take responsibility for his decision.

He will keep sacking other people instead – none of whom made the decision, and none of whom are accountable to parliament for the decision that only he made.

Whether the Prime Minister misled parliament or the world at large about what he knew is now bogged-down in a depressing game of semantics.

What will not happen, it seems, is that the Prime Minister will take actual responsibility for his bad decision to appoint Mandelson as ambassador: for that would mean it was wrong of him to sack his chief of staff and the senior official at the foreign office.

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All this shows how important it was for the House of Commons to take the decisions on disclosure of papers related to Mandelson’s appointment out of the hands of the Prime Minister.

That vote by the House of Commons was of immense political and constitutional significance. Members of Parliament decided that the Prime Minister could not be trusted to apply “national security” in disclosure matters.

The consequences of that momentous vote are now becoming more and more obvious.

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Either we have Prime Ministerial accountability or we do not.

This is not a situation where a minister is being asked to take responsibility for decisions by officials – the Crichel Down situation.

That wider doctrine of ministerial accountability was always unrealistic: a minister cannot possibly know or approve of every decision in their department.

This is about a Prime Minister taking responsibility for their own decision – a high-level decision which only a Prime Minister can take.

And whatever further details is still come out about the matter, it will always have been the Prime Minister’s decision to appoint Mandelson.

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Once upon a time there was ruler who was “furious” at being expected to be a ruler.

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“How can we get rid of you?”

13th April 2026

The immense significance of the defeat of Orbán’s illiberal political machine and methodology

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Just a reminder that you can support this blog via PayPal, the details are on the left (web browser) or via the menu above (mobile/tablet).  Each post takes time and opportunity cost and it would be great to have more support.

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The late Tony Benn set out five questions about power.

In his final speech to the House of Commons he said that on meeting any powerful person, one should always ask:

What power have you got?

Where did you get it from?

In whose interests do you exercise it?

To whom are you accountable?

And how can we get rid of you?

Hansard: The House will forgive me for quoting myself, but in the course of my life I have developed five little democratic questions. If one meets a powerful person--Adolf Hitler, Joe Stalin or Bill Gates--ask them five questions: "What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?" If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system.

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Of these five questions it is the last which is the ultimate question for any democracy – or indeed for any political system.

How can we get rid of you?

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In a general election yesterday, the electorate of Hungary got rid of Viktor Orbán. It was an overwhelming defeat, and an overwhelming victory for his anti-corruption opponent Péter Magyar.

And it was a significant defeat for illiberalism, possibly the most significant defeat of illiberalism in recent years.

This is not to say that Magyar is necessarily a liberal hero. He was a colleague of Orbán in the ruling party until fairly recently, and it may well be that his views on a range of issues are nearer to Orbán than to his urban voters.

It may well be that Magyar is simply a non-corrupt version of Orbán.

But.

And it is a big but.

For Magyar to defeat Orbán meant he also had to defeat an extremely powerful and successful illiberal political machine and methodology.

A political machine and methodology that seemed, again until fairly recently, relentless and invincible.

The basis of this political machine and methodology was simple: motivate an electoral bloc with grievances, fear and cruelty.

If one motivated and then exploited this bloc of support then one could gain and retain power against the fragmented centre and the left, who will be demonised and marginalised.

One then rigs the media, legal and political systems to entrench this political machine. The constitution will be made to yield – either formally or by cowardice of those who could invoke nominal checks and balances.

Elections are also rigged or, if the results are unwelcome, discredited.

With diligence, this political machine and methodology can become a formidable and irresistible political force.

And it has, of course, much in common with Faragism in the United Kingdom and Trumpism in the United States, as well as with illiberal political movements in many other countries.

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And one feature of the Orbán illiberalism was that it was open and unapologetic.

As this blog has previously described, Orbán expressly stated that democracy could and should be at odds with liberalism – undermining the cherished assumption of progressives and liberals.

Democracy vs Liberalism – the worrying but significant 2014 speech of Viktor Orbán 29th May 2021 One of the more complacent views of the last few decades is that there is a necessary link between democracy and liberalism. The notion that if you believe in one then you believe in the other. And, in turn, there is the converse view – that illiberals will tend to be undemocratic, if not actively anti-democratic. This is assumption is evident in a spate of books over the last few years about the death of democracy where, if you read carefully, they describe the (possible) death of liberal democracy. For – and this is still a shock for many – there is nothing necessarily liberal about a democracy. It is possible – and indeed not uncommon – for a conservative bloc to mobilise sufficient support to prevail in elections.

Orbán – and his political machine and methodology – was a one-man rebuttal, if not refutation, of the happy notion of liberal democracy.

He showed their could be a darker illiberal version of democracy too.

And because of his success, Orbán became a poster-boy for illiberals everywhere.

What he could implement in Hungary, could be put in place by others elsewhere.

Illiberal dominance of a democratic polity was possible.

Orbán showed the way.

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But illiberalism within a democracy can only go so far, before it ceases to be a democracy. And while there is still opposition parties and politicians, and relatively free elections, there is always scope for push-back.

For example, while Hungary remained in the European Union, Hungary had at least the form of a democracy.

Magyar was not arrested, his party not prohibited.

And so outside-of-the-machine something came along that would meet the task of taking on and defeating that machine.

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It seems that Magyar may be more liberal in policy than his predecessor, and it looks like that he will embrace rather than hinder the European Union.

That would be a welcome policy shift.

But the significance of his victory is not so much in policy terms than that it happened at all.

He showed that an entrenched and diligent illiberal political machine and methodology can be defeated – and in the glare of international interest and in the faces of those like Trump and Putin who supported Orbán.

The international significance of this defeat of illiberalism is immeasurable.

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“How can we get rid of you?”

Like this.

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Why Melania Trump’s statement is a fascinating exercise in text and performance

10 April 2026

Hello and welcome to The Empty City blog, the new name of which is explained here.

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A close reading of an odd public statement

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Yesterday Melania Trump made an unexpected public statement.

The statement in its circumstances was odd. There was no formal requirement for her to make the statement, and there also seemed no particular reason for her to make the statement. The statement was not, for example, a response to any known media or legal development.

For viewers – and for many in Washington, it seems – the statement was out of the blue.

It was, in a word, odd.

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This blog has no particular focus on Epstein and so on. There are many other online resources for anyone taking a close interest in the release (and non-release) of the Epstein files. This blog also is not concerned with the various documents and supposed documents and other material that may or may not connect Melania Trump with Jeffrey Epstein.

But this blog does like a good close reading.

And so what can we say (and not say) about this particular text in performance?

Let us explore.

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We shall start with the text.

It was a prepared text.

It was also as text which, at least in part, was very carefully drafted to deal with certain potential issues of legal liability and to explain (and explain away) certain pieces of evidence. The text indicates that it was put together, at least in part, by someone skilled and experienced in drafting.

One should not under-estimate Melania Trump (or indeed anyone in public life) and, but for her performance of the text, one could readily assume that she may have drafted the text herself.

As the text engages with issues of potential legal liability not expressly stated in the text, one can perhaps discount that it was written by ChatGPT or some other generative AI. Some generative AI can be very plausible indeed – including for formal and legal texts – but usually not about things which are not also stated in the text.

The impression conveyed by the text is that it was authored by someone skilled in drafting sensitive statements.

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So if it was a prepared text then when was it prepared and for what purpose.

The immediate assumption of many (including in the media) is that the statement was prepared for the purpose of this performance.

That may well be the case.

But it may also be the case that the statement (or an earlier version of it) was prepared earlier for another purpose and perhaps for publication or for reading to an inquiry, rather than to be read to camera.

It reads as a statement to be circulated. It was not a statement well suited to be read out to camera.

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Melania Trump, as anyone who saw the footage saw, seemed unfamiliar with the text.

She stumbles over certain words, some of which were significant and, if anything, required emphasis.

This stumbling indicates (but does not prove) that she was not the author of the text.

(That English is not her first language is not a relevant point here: there are many for whom English is not a first language who would not stumble in these circumstances.)

Of course, the stumbling may just be nerves – and who would not be nervous in such circumstances – but it is more likely to indicate a lack of familiarity with she was reading.

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The stumbling also indicates (but does not prove) that the performance was not prepared for or rehearsed.

If so, such a lack of preparation or rehearsal contrasts with the careful composition of the text.

If a carefully drafted text is intended for performance then one can presume that similar effort is put into the performance as the text. (Unless the performer is (over-)confident in not need preparation or rehearsal.)

This therefore indicates (but does not prove) that the text was not intended for this particular performance.

The impression is that the performance to camera was a late decision and a pre-existing text was used for the performance.

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But, if it is correct that the text was drafted by a legal or other adviser then we come to a tension, if not a contradiction.

For it is hard to see what competent and prudent legal or other adviser would have advised her to volunteer this statement, out of the blue.

A competent and prudent legal or other adviser would presumably say that unless there is a formal requirement or other pressing reason to make such a statement, then it would be wiser not to make a statement.

And so we have what looks like a statement put together (at least in part) by an adviser performed in circumstances which no sensible adviser would advise that it be performed.

Odd.

Perhaps the statement is to to (p)rebut an impending legal or media development and if so, all will become clear.

But on the basis of this text in its performance, it was a curious thing.

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Overall, the impression conveyed is that this is an exercise in crisis management (hence the well-prepared text) broken-off mid-flow in an unexpected way.

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This post is also cross posted at The Empty City substack, which is run in parallel with this blog.

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The silences after a threat of genocide

9 April 2026

The impotence of both constitutional law and international law

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What happens when the leader of the most powerful military nation in the world threatens to commit genocide?

Like this:

Well, it seems, from the perspectives of constitutional law and international law, that nothing happens.

Things could happen, of course.

There are two constitutional mechanism within the United States constitution for removing Donald Trump from office. Neither has been used or seem likely to be used.

There are sorts of sanctions that the international community could place on Trump. None have been used or seem likely to be used.

And so, as I set out in Prospect today (click kere):

we have a situation where perhaps the most serious threat imaginable is made and there is nothing which will be done or can be done.

One can legitimately ask what the purpose is of either constitutional law or international law if not to deal with situations like this.

Law is intended to deal with big things as well as little things.

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Some things are significant when they happen.

And some things are significant when they do not happen.

And what is perhaps far more significant than the unpleasant and extreme post of Trump is that nothing happened, at least in respect of constitutional law or international law.

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Why weren’t officers’ war crimes concerns reported to the military police at the time?

2nd April 2026

How Trump has created a situation he cannot get out of

26th March 2026

The choking of the Strait of Hormuz and an unwanted regime change in Iran mean Trump cannot simply walk away

There is a proverb about what is the difference between a clever person and a wise person.

A clever person can get themselves out of situations that a wise person would not have got into.

(There are other answers, but this is the best.)

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Political history provides many examples of leaders who, on the way up, are savvy and cautious but when corrupted by power become over-confident and reckless.

In this way, hubris often tends to be visited by Nemesis.

Not always: there will be those like Tito or Stalin or Franco who remain careful with absolute power so as not to expose themselves to the risk of downfall: the price of tyranny, like of liberty, is eternal vigilance.

But with President Trump, who has so often created uncertain situations for others to deal with while he invariably moves on, his usual streetwise cunning seems to have departed him with the attack on Iran.

And so he has created a situation out of which he cannot get.

Iran now has nothing to lose with choking the Strait of Hormuz. There is nothing currently which Trump can do with with either bluster or bullying to get the strait re-opened as before.

And – as this is a blog about polities – the state in Iran has reconfigured. There has been regime change, but not to the United States’s advantage.

As this outstanding piece in the Economist explains, the military-political leadership in Iran has fragmented and decentralised. There is thereby nobody with overall control, just disconnected and local forces with only loose central direction.

As such, there is also effectively nobody for Trump to bluster or bully.

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The United States attack on Iran is almost a perfect model of stupidity, to place alongside the Pyrrhic victory or the marches on Moscow.

And even if Trump tries now to move on, the Strait of Hormuz will still be choked and there will be deep, lasting instability in the region.

So we have a contradiction between what Trump wants to do and what he cannot do. He wants to walk away, but this is one mess he cannot escape.

A wise person would not have got into this situation, and it is now a situation a clever (or at least cunning) person cannot get out of.

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The Mueller report was a turning-point where United States history failed to turn

24th March 2026

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Hello and welcome to The Empty City blog, the new name of which is explained here.

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The cynical reframing of the report by Trump’s administration worked in our low attention span age

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The historian AJP Taylor once described the 1848 revolutions as a turning-point where German history failed to turn.

In the recent political and constitutional history of the United States there have been a few of these non-turning-points.

Most glaringly, one can point to those two failures by the Senate to convict the twice-impeached President Donald Trump.

But the death a few days ago of Robert Mueller reminds us of a particular media-political-constitutional non-turning-point: what happened and did not happen in 2019, when his report into on the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election was published.

Front page of Mueller report

 

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The content of the report was damning of in its details. On this see the useful and important post by former federal prosecutor Joyce Vance published today.

But as with all formal texts, we need to understand both the purpose of the text and its context.

It was a report, and nothing other than a report.

It was not an indictment, and still less a judicial determination.

And the report did the job of a report, leaving it to decision-makers to make decisions based on the report.

The evidence and findings in the report would speak for themselves.

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But.

The evidence and findings in the report did not get to speak for themselves: they were drowned out.

The report was stymied on release by an effective and cynical countering operation involving the then attorney general William Barr and others.

The report had little chance in our low-attention-span age.

The report had 448 pages and no sound-bite summary.

In contrast, the Barr letter sent to Congress (mis)characterising the report and (mis)describing the content of the report was a mere 4 pages and was packed with quotable lines.

Top of the Barr letter

It was a sign of our times that the Barr letter got traction in politics and in the mainstream media and on social media and the throrough investigation set out in the report did not.

Trump even asserted that the report had cleared him.

But Trump’s response to Mueller’s death suggests that he never really believed that to be true.

Trump social media post saying “Robert Mueller just died. Good, I’m glad he’s dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

“Robert Mueller just died. Good, I’m glad he’s dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

If Trump genuinely believed he had been cleared by Mueller he really could not have posted that graceless response.

But he doesn’t, so he did.

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In a way, the intensity of Trump’s response is a testament to Mueller’s diligent work on the report.

As is said on Christopher Wren’s tomb: si monumentum requiris, circumspice (if you seek a monument, look around).

If you want a monument to Mueller’s report look at Trump’s unpleasant response.

But what you don’t have as a monument was any adverse consequences for Trump.

Trump carried on as if the report never was published.

Trump was never held accountable for what was detailed in the report.

The Mueller report and the response to it was a turning-point where American history failed to turn.

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Why the United States attack on the school in Minab matters

23rd March 2026

The facts of the incident point to a breach of international law

 

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Hello and welcome to The Empty City blog, the new name of which is explained here.

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Let us assume the following facts:

1. that there was a guided missile;

2. that this guided missile had a pre-selected target; and

3. that this guided missile struck that pre-selected target as it was intended to do so.

If the missile was not a guided missile, or that it struck a target that was not the pre-selected target, then one or more of the facts posited above would not be true. But let us assume those facts are the case.

Let now assume the following additional facts:

4. that a school was the pre-selected target;

5. that the guided missile struck that pre-selected target as it was intended to do so; and

6. that over one hundred schoolchildren were killed in that strike.

If these facts are also true then there is a question about fact (4): was the school a deliberate target? Was the building selected for the strike by someone (or something) knowing it was a school?

If so, then there would be a war crime, as schools are protected from such attacks under international law – on this see the able article by former Prime Minister Gordon Brown here.

But what if the school was selected by someone (or something) without realising it was a school?

Then the question becomes whether that someone (or something) should have known it was a school.

And if they did not do everything feasible to verify the status of a targeted object then the targeter is also culpable and in breach of international law.

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Over at Prospect – click here – I have done a post on whether the attack by the United States on a school in Minab is a breach of international law.

It would appear that from 2016 onwards, public domain and open source information would have shown that the school was no longer part of an adjacent compound of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

screengrab of new report on opensource material

This means that anybody (or anything) that bothered to check what they were actually doing with this $3.5 million piece of hardware, of which the United States only has a limited number, would have realised that the school was not a military target.

On costs grounds alone one would have thought they would check whether a missile would be ‘wasted’ – let alone humanitarian grounds.

But, as this New York Times report reveals, it seems that the United States did not bother to check up-to-date information. Instead the United States relied on out-of-date information, and so over one hundred schoolchildren were killed.

screengrab of NYT article

And Reuters now reports that United States military now realise they have a problem over this strike and have elevated the status of their internal inquiry.

At least the incident is being investigated.

Of course, few will feel confident that such an inquiry will lead to any open admission of culpability or any sanction against any individual.

You will probably have the Jean Charles de Menezes sort-of-situation where there was an overall, system failure – a lethal failure – but no particular person will take any blame.

But as the Prospect article concludes: in the current context of Artificial Intelligence, it would seem the application of human intelligence to public domain, open source information would mean over one hundred schoolchildren would probably still be alive today.

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This post is also cross posted at The Empty City substack, which is run in parallel with this blog.

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